Looking At The Numbers, Is The Excitement Still There?

[JB Lions]

Using this as a source - https://ntldstats.com/tld

Jan 1 - 11.2 million
June 30 - 22.8 millon

plus 11.6 million in first 6 months of the year - part of that was the .xyz promotion

July 1 - 22.8 million
Dec 1 - 26.9 million

plus 4.1 million in last 5 months

Looks like 2015 it was about 4.1 million as well same time period.
July 1 - 6.4 million
Dec 1 - 10.5 million

Prediction of 50 million from Frank. So 2 more years to get another 23 million. I don't see that happening unless .web comes out. And then the Summer .xyz drop. Then I know a lot of people will be culling their names, trying to keep the best of what they have, usual stuff.

“Registrations of new “not com” endings will out-pace .com and others absent heavy discounting.

We’re on track for 50 mil new names by 2019.”

 

[garptrader]

Assume 90% of new TLDs are held by domainers or ~24 million speculative holdings.

Given the 2014 launch and one or two renewal cycles for some of the earlier registrations, hundreds of millions of dollars have already been spent on speculative new TLD purchases.

$2 or less promotions have driven much of the new registration growth.

Most new TLD purchases are made by newer domain investors who have a track record of high drop rates.
While the most popular extensions tend to have lower renewals, there are certainly many new TLDs which carry premium renewals. Consequently, going forward average renewal costs are probably a bit higher than $10.

So how can new TLD holders pay $250 million or more in renewals annually for the next several years?

100k sales annually @ $2500 each is one scenario enough to appear on DNJ
-imagine seeing 2000 weekly AFTERMARKET not registry new TLD sales on DNJ but we are nowhere near that level - maybe 99% short of what is needed
-registry sales do not help pay domain investors' renewals

one million annual sales @ $250 each would be another scenario to pay renewals
-imagine seeing 20 thousand weekly sales report of new TLDs on Namepros
-Can someone point me to a new TLD sales thread with 20 thousand weekly new TLD sales @ $XXX?

Where is the demand going to come from?

 

[GoKaizen]

Where is the demand going to come from?

There is no demand.

https://ntldstats.com/parking/tld

https://www.namepros.com/threads/facebook-doesnt-support-xyz-domain-names.987593/

 

[Lite]

If Donuts reduce the renewal to $5 for all their ~200 extensions, target of 50M is easy. Personally I like dot keyword extensions than generic GTLDs (.xyz/.web). Lot of end-users would prefer industry specific extensions IMO due to organic search Google rankings. The demand would grow. Lately I see increase in number of registrations.

 

[New.Life]

I'm not sure about of the fact that .COM will grow strongly. Look at the trend on the chart.

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDDomainCounts.aspx

$0.99, two years promotions, etc. helps .com to avoid a big drop for now!

Good .COMs of course will feel good, but most of the latest regs, long domains, words without meaning, etc - will not survive!

Will be a BIG drop of .com in the near future... hmm... let's see!