LLLL.com Value Decreasing?

[DLarkin84]

Ok so everyone is always talking about how LLLL.com values are constantly increasing but does anyone think the value of them could ever decrease? Please list some reasons why you think LLLL.com's will continue to increase in value or why LLLL.com will eventually decrease in value.

 

[bmugford]

Only 456,000? With the vast majority owned by dominers that is no shortage.

The long term trend versus the short term trend?, would that be 6 months versus 3 months?

As more of these become developed, fewer will be available. You might he surprised how many terrible looking combos are developed sites.

 

[snoop]

Adding to that note: Very few domainers appear to be selling their LLLL.coms for less than they paid for them and most NPers appear to be perfectly content to renew their domains.

Well it wouldn't be logical to not renew a domain worth $25+ so that is no surprise. I have no idea what % of people are selling at a loss but historically when prices do fall many people will try to hold out, doesn't mean the losses aren't there for some, lets be frank, a large % of the people who bought after the buyout have been burnt. The smart ones sold out early this year to those people.

As more of these become developed, fewer will be available. You might he surprised how many terrible looking combos are developed sites.

There isn't a lot of development with low quality llll.com's, it is a speculator driven market.

 

[bmugford]

Well it wouldn't be logical to not renew a domain worth $25+ so that is no surprise. I have no idea what % of people are selling at a loss but historically when prices do fall many people will try to hold out, doesn't mean the losses aren't there for some, lets be frank, a large % of the people who bought after the buyout have been burnt. The smart ones sold out early this year to those people.

There isn't a lot of development with low quality llll.com's, it is a speculator driven market.

There are a ton of developed ugly LLLL.com sites, there was a thread about it before. What is ugly to English speakers can be a super premium to China or other countries. Don't get me wrong though - I am not a huge fan of bad quality LLLL.com, I just don't think they are going lower than $25 for the worst.

 

[snoop]

There are a ton of developed ugly LLLL.com sites, there was a thread about it before. What is ugly to English speakers can be a super premium to China or other countries. Don't get me wrong though - I am not a huge fan of bad quality LLLL.com, I just don't think they are going lower than $25 for the worst.

I have never seen any real evidence of it and I read those threads.

I guess we will see in the next few months, about the pricing.

 

[dezinerite]

I've noticed a decrease in prices for the bad letter LLLL domains. I think it's got something to do with the economy or something. Right now we're approaching the time when many LLLL.coms are reaching their renewal date, and many webmasters are letting the bad ones go for really cheap.

But I'm almost certain that the price rise for bad letters will come again, esp. after November (this year).

Will the LLLL prices decrease over time? I will have to say I doubt it. While the really good + premium letter domains increase in value, so will the bad letter domains. It's just taking some time and the ones who are patient enough will prosper.

Anyone letting their LLLL go for 20-30 dollars right now thinking the domains have failed them will regret it in the near future.

That's just my opinion.

China's just hit a new high a few days ago at 6.92 to the dollar (they are the ones who love the bad LLLLs right?) When I first got here just a few years ago they were at 8.1 to the dollar. I say hold on to the bad letters if your budget allows. :D

 

[-REECE-]

I wouldn't doubt at all prices fall to $15 before renewals, but I expect to see them bounce back to $25 per shortly afterwards.

I would imagine we'll see considerably less sales in the weeks following renewals. Those who want to renew their domains are probably not the same people that are madly going to be trying to sell them this summer.

Should be some interesting times ahead... %%-

I have never seen any real evidence of it and I read those threads.

I guess we will see in the next few months, about the pricing.

 

[cache]

waiting for the renewal date.

 

[tetrapak]

Summertiiiime and the weather is hot..

 

[Andrei P.]

BTW. Browsing among LLLL.coms that are expiring I noticed that a lot of them expire together with their LLLL.net counterparts. Domainers would not invest both in LLLL.com + LLLL.net domains. So I'm thinking that some of these LLLL.coms that are dropping now belonged not to investors but to end-users who wanted to develop them but forgot or decided not to develop, etc. That means that a lot of so called ugly patterns will have interest sooner or later. And as I told it many times already one has much more chances of selling ugly LLLL.com to end-user with 1000% ROI than to sell ugly LLL.com to end-user with 50% ROI.

 

[ssamriga]

lets be frank, a large % of the people who bought after the buyout have been burnt.

Why do you think so? Have any proof?

I only have sold LLLLs with profit and I am sure will never sell at loss...

 

[snoop]

Why do you think so? Have any proof?

I only have sold LLLLs with profit and I am sure will never sell at loss...

What "proof" do you want? prices are down more than 50% from the peak, do you think that isn't the case?

 

[-REECE-]

300 very bad LLLL.coms currently cost about the same as 1 very bad LLL.com. I'd rather have 300 very bad LLLL.coms

I think we'll see some serious growth starting by Jan 09.

BTW. Browsing among LLLL.coms that are expiring I noticed that a lot of them expire together with their LLLL.net counterparts. Domainers would not invest both in LLLL.com + LLLL.net domains. So I'm thinking that some of these LLLL.coms that are dropping now belonged not to investors but to end-users who wanted to develop them but forgot or decided not to develop, etc. That means that a lot of so called ugly patterns will have interest sooner or later. And as I told it many times already one has much more chances of selling ugly LLLL.com to end-user with 1000% ROI than to sell ugly LLL.com to end-user with 50% ROI.

What "proof" do you want? prices are down more than 50% from the peak, do you think that isn't the case?

Snoop is right on that count. Most people who got in past-February are in the red, although they may be too embarassed to admit it

 

[snoop]

300 very bad LLLL.coms currently cost about the same as 1 very bad LLL.com. I'd rather have 300 very bad LLLL.coms

Personally I would rather have the 3 letter .com (though I would sell both at current prices), one has an annual holding cost of $8 per year, the other $2400.

 

[-REECE-]

I have a nice picture on my blog that describes the current low end LLLL.com market pretty well:

 

[accent]

I always figured on holding these for five years or maybe a lot longer - be the old prospector who comes to town once or twice a year and dumps a bag of gold on the bar.

'Course if you are going to pay renewals for that long the original cost of the domains matters less. Quality is a good thing.

Times like these the long-term investors sleep right through while the flippers think the world is ending. Wake me if they get down to $10.

As for the predictions - 2008 is a lost year, the world economy is awful and that is no fault of the domain market - LLLL or otherwise. I still say the eventual value of LLLL.coms will be around 1/26 the value of similar LLL.coms. It is an inverse bubble 'till then. Is the value of LLL.coms a bit high? Don't know, but even if it is they will have a much higher equilibrium price as the market continues to evolve.

Short .coms are premiere investments for the mobile web - thought by many to become much bigger than the present day internet. That is almost scary when you think about it. Several times the market size and split mainly between short LLLL.coms and .mobi (if dotmobi is successful).

Other than localized use of cc domains, I don't see a large mobile impact for other extensions - or, beyond existing sites, for longer .coms. If you do not like .mobi (I do like it, but whatever) then short .coms are, big time, where the movement will be.

 

[Andrei P.]

First of all you must admit that low end has never been at 60$ minimum price. Even when it was 2 weeks when all LLLL.coms were backordered and prices were really hyped. Even then you could buy them for 40$. Personally I bought at the peak prices my last "ugly" LLLL.coms at 39$ per one - and anyone could - they were selling at this price at TDNAM I'm sure you could also bought them even cheaper with bulk purchase!

So today you can buy LLLL.com for 24$. This is 60% decrease in price. While on Reece's picture we see 500% decrease in price

Let's see at quad-premium LLLL.coms that were at 450$ minimum price during these two weeks when prices were insane. Today you can buy LLLL.com even for 300$ (it will be very bad but you if you happy enough you can find it, and many of 300$ auctions were reported LLLL.com thread). it's 50% price decrease. 60%-decrease in low end and 50% in quad-premiums. But everyone is crying about low-end crash. Haven't you noticed crash in all domain industry including LLL.biz, LLL.info, LLL.net etc.?

Time when price of LLLL.coms was too high was not long-lasting so I think only those who started investing at this point of time are burned. I started investing in November and if today I will sell all my LLLL.coms at the very-bottom prices I will still have 25k profit (this is very bad prediction, I'm sure if I will be selling them wisely I will have at least 30k profit and more likely 35k). Some part of my poftfolio is brilliant and have 300-500% ROI even now. Some part of my portfolio is terrible and will be sold at loss but in general I have very good profit (at least 25% ROI over 7 months). 25% is perhaps not good in domain industry and prospects are that perhaps 25% ROI will became 15% ROI over 12 months if price decrease will continue but I was totally realizing that LLLL.coms were long-time investments and I was ready to hold them 3-5-10 years. And even now I'm ready to buy 1000 LLLL.com when they start dropping by thousands for 9-12$ But I'm afraid that now only I ready to buyout them again and prices will not drop to this level.

 

[-REECE-]

Very well said! :tu:

Regardless of what happens this year or next, I'm more than willing to bet that long term investing in LLLL.coms at today's prices will be very happy with their investment.

"Get rich quick" with LLLL.coms ended in February. Now it's time to start thinking about retiring rich

I always figured on holding these for five years or maybe a lot longer - be the old prospector who comes to town once or twice a year and dumps a bag of gold on the bar.

'Course if you are going to pay renewals for that long the original cost of the domains matters less. Quality is a good thing.

Times like these the long-term investors sleep right through while the flippers think the world is ending. Wake me if they get down to $10.

As for the predictions - 2008 is a lost year, the world economy is awful and that is no fault of the domain market - LLLL or otherwise. I still say the eventual value of LLLL.coms will be around 1/26 the value of similar LLL.coms. It is an inverse bubble 'till then. Is the value of LLL.coms a bit high? Don't know, but even if it is they will have a much higher equilibrium price as the market continues to evolve.

Short .coms are premiere investments for the mobile web - thought by many to become much bigger than the present day internet. That is almost scary when you think about it. Several times the market size and split mainly between short LLLL.coms and .mobi (if dotmobi is successful).

Other than localized use of cc domains, I don't see a large mobile impact for other extensions - or, beyond existing sites, for longer .coms. If you do not like .mobi (I do like it, but whatever) then short .coms are, big time, where the movement will be.

At the absolute peak people were calling me crazy for liquidating mine for $35-$40 per in bulk -- actually pming me and wondering if I had gone mad. There were people trying to buy LLLL.coms at $50 per on Namepros and having no luck.

You're right Ergo, all markets have crashed significantly. The highest price I recorded as a min wholesale on my blog was $54. I believe in the mid-February guide and it's been downhill ever since. Min wholesale is now sitting at about $25, or about 56% under it's peak. The main difference between the low end and the upper end is that more and more LLLL's are finding themselves considered "low end". We've seen the lines between anti/single/double premium LLLL.coms become increasingly blurred. Quad premiums on the other hand rarely sell under $350 today unless they're absolute monstrosities.

Short term, you're definitely safer with quad premium or better LLLL.coms. Hard to say what will happen long term and this may very well reverse itself, but I really wouldn't be looking to invest in the low end at the moment unless for a considerable discount under the going rate to compensate for any further depreciation it takes in the months leading up to renewals.

 

[ssamriga]

well I bought most of mine at regfee anyways, so profit is quite guaranteed
and I am not afraid of renewing them, because after this downfall comes the 2009 which will be profitable...

 

[VURG]

Short term, you're definitely safer with quad premium or better LLLL.coms.

Depends how much you pay for them.

The general trend is up. I just see price fluctuations in recent months as noise. I certainly wasn't going to touch low grade LLLL.com at $54 in Feb. Personally, I think that your price guide draws too much on recent data. You need more months data to smooth out the noise. Missing Italian with this conversation. He brings with him experience in filtering out noisy price fluctuations as a stock market pro.

 

[Sufyan]

Depends how much you pay for them.

The general trend is up. I just see price fluctuations in recent months as noise. I certainly wasn't going to touch low grade LLLL.com at $54 in Feb. Personally, I think that your price guide draws too much on recent data. You need more months data to smooth out the noise. Missing Italian with this conversation. He brings with him experience in filtering out noisy price fluctuations as a stock market pro.

I miss Italian too. Does anyone know when he is joining us again?