LLLL.com in 5 years - Will it sell for $5000+

[DN BROKER]

LLLL.com in 5 years - Will it sell for $5000+

LLL.com's 8 years ago was available for 300 or less....

Will LLLL also dominate the industry in 5-10 years? what is you're thought?

:sold:

 

[Andrei P.]

Last 6 months we had very big supply of of LLLL.coms. 1500-2500 LLLL.coms only from drops monthly! + Let's say additionally the same number from domainers. What happens in 1 year - number of drops will decrease to 150-250 monthly and even if domainers will be still offering the same number of LLLL.coms we can say that supply will decrease almost 2 times! This will send worst LLLL.coms to 60-100$ region. Supply of triple premiums will decrease even more and their prices will probably increase even more. Perhaps 150-350$ while quad-premiums will be 700-800$. If just we see steady growth of LLLL.coms in next few months at least 10% monthly then domainers will be back to LLLL.com to make investments to them.

LLL.com prices are limited by average maximum amount of money that end-user can pay. Very important that average maximum amount of money that end-user can pay is almost similar for LLLL.com domains. The only differnece is that average LLL.com has significantly more chances to be sold to end-user than LLLL.com but when this is supported by reseller market - this factor will not be decisive. LLLL.com will have great speculative interest in 5 years. HUGE speculative interest and I think that in 5 years prices of worst LLLL.coms will be at least 200$ but most probably 500-1000$. If you buy it for 35$ today you can calculate ROI yourself.

Will XQZ.com cost 20000$ for a reseller? I doubt about it because even there is an end-user for then he would pay only 500$ for it. The same as the same-quality end-user will pay the same 500$ for XQZY.com

Number of drops according to Pool.com (add 15% more for Godaddy domains)

November 2881
December 2181
January 2471
February 1474
March 1542
April 1193
May 900?

August 2008 400?

January 2009 100?
January 2010 50 drops monthly?

Currently if a new investor comes to LLLL.com market he uses drop auctions but when number of drops will be 5-10 daily the competition will increase so the prices will increase too.

 

[-REECE-]

My guess on min prices by category 5 years from now:

bad LLLL.coms - $250
triple premiums - $600+
quad premiums - $2000+

Way too many variables to make a prediction anything more than a guess, but I really doubt we'll see prices radically higher than this on any category...

The 1/26th of an LLL.com will never occur for LLLL.coms as a whole imho. I can see good triple premiums reaching it someday but don't really see a day when every LLLL.com is going to fetch 1/26th.

Even taking what is imho a very conservative guess of 20k on min LLL.com valuations 5 years from now (20% per year appreciation going forward), we're left suggesting that the worst LLLL.coms would fetch $770. Likely? No. Possible? Quite honestly, I don't think it is.

 

[Andrei P.]

Possible? Quite honestly, I don't think it is.

ZQY.com 20000$ possible? Then why you think ZQYY.com 770$ isn't possible? It's just matter of demand and supply and if supply will decrease (and it will decrease in 5 years! there will be 20-30 large LLLL.com holders that will not be interested in selling all their names faster and faster).

The gap between quad-premiums and tripple premiums will decrease also the same as it decreased in LLL.com names. PGPH.com - 350$? PGPW - 80$? Do you think that PGPW is 4 times worse than PGPH?. Or lets take QPGP, or XPGP - they are even more brandable than PGPH and thus perhaps even more chances of finding end-user. In 5 years supply of quad-premiums and triple-premiums will be quite comparable and I think price difference between them will not be more than 2.

 

[-REECE-]

Triple premiums are a very large category and I think we'll see a very large price difference between something like VSSR and something like QFHG. I can see the stronger triple premiums (like VSSR) appreciating towards a 2 times difference versus quad premium, but something like QFHG will be a long ways behind imho -- probably closer to a 4:1 level versus a quad.

Quite honestly, I don't think examples, such as VSSR should even be considered triple premiums, or if we do, we should make a whole new category for stuff like QFHG which isn't in the same league whatsoever (even at present).

I like PGPW and agree with you -- as my example suggests, min prices per category (like my garbage triple example QFHG).

The gap between quads and quality triples will most certainly decrease and 2:1 or less really wouldn't surprise me for strong triples with V, U, W.

ZQY.com 20000$ possible? Then why you think ZQYY.com 770$ isn't possible? It's just matter of demand and supply and if supply will decrease (and it will decrease in 5 years! there will be 20-30 large LLLL.com holders that will not be interested in selling all their names faster and faster).

The gap between quad-premiums and tripple premiums will decrease also the same as it decreased in LLL.com names. PGPH.com - 350$? PGPW - 80$? Do you think that PGPW is 4 times worse than PGPH?. Or lets take QPGP, or XPGP - they are even more brandable than PGPH and thus perhaps even more chances of finding end-user. In 5 years supply of quad-premiums and triple-premiums will be quite comparable and I think price difference between them will not be more than 2.

And no, I don't think 770 on ZQYY is possible.

 

[bmugford]

There are only about 17,000 total LLL.com
There are about 460,000 LLLL.com

There are so many bad LLLL.com combos, the supply will always be high enough to not drive up the super low end that high.

My guess on min prices by category 5 years from now:

bad LLLL.coms - $250
triple premiums - $600+
quad premiums - $2000+

Way too many variables to make a prediction anything more than a guess, but I really doubt we'll see prices radically higher than this on any category...

The 1/26th of an LLL.com will never occur for LLLL.coms as a whole imho. I can see good triple premiums reaching it someday but don't really see a day when every LLLL.com is going to fetch 1/26th.

Even taking what is imho a very conservative guess of 20k on min LLL.com valuations 5 years from now (20% per year appreciation going forward), we're left suggesting that the worst LLLL.coms would fetch $770. Likely? No. Possible? Quite honestly, I don't think it is.

 

[accent]

Depends on the continuing growth rate of the internet - not the raw users number, lower threshold prices bring lower income people online. Much more important to domain prices is the rise in commercial use and online sales. That growth was 20% (year over year) last Christmas in the USA. More business online means more demand for domains - some will buy whatever reg fee name they can find, but many will want short .coms.

The mobile internet will place an even greater emphasis on short domains (tiny keyboards breed mistyping) and I doubt that anything other than .com, .mobi and the specific country code of the user will benefit much.

There still are a lot of short-term LLLL.com flippers unloading their stashes in the market at the moment (often to each other). In time those domains will move to stronger hands - it would not take all that much money, as these things go, to clear the market even now.

Prices would then move to the next "OMG" level, more short-termers will unload, and we march onward. These patterns will surely be completed in 5 years with most LLLL.coms in the hands of long-term consolidators, investors and end-users. I still say $1421 minimum, and I hope to hold on that long.

 

[zestydomains*com]

Is $5k possible...absolutely...
But is it likely? That's really hard to say.

The real clear indicator of just how possible, if at all, for me will come late in the fall of this year. At that time, renewals will be due on an enormous number of LLLL.com domains. If the prices at that time inspire the group of lesser LLLL.com holders to renew, then there is a great chance for good value growth in the long term. If, however, holders of the lesser LLLL.com combos can't demand a good price vs. renewal fees come late this fall, then the LLLL.com market might still be in a time of flux.

There is a big difference in LLL.com vs. LLLL.com, which is the size outstanding (which I'll call the float) of these domain types not in end-user hands. By my best guess, the float for LLL.com domains is somewhere around 30% - 35%. The float for LLLL.com is probably more like 60% - 65%.

35% of LLL.com domains is about 6k domains. 60% of LLLL.com domains is about 275k domains.

At minimum $7300, LLL.com domains pose no risk vs. the cost of reg fees.

At minimum lower $xx, LLLL.com domains pose a much higher risk of being dropped this fall vs. reg fee, particularly if many flood the market for sale at one time when renewals come due and the market price decreases due to the supply.

I'm not heavily invested in LLLL.com domains, but that may change at the end of this year. I'm waiting to see how this fall goes. If the LLLL.com buyout holds and grows, then LLLL.com's are primed for a great run ahead. If the buyout is shaky or fails come this fall, then I'll hold out.

Note: All Premium LLLL.com domains will most likely buck the trend and are much safer LLLL.com investments, but their price is somewhat connected to and enhanced by the fact that all LLLL.com are currently registered.

Time will tell and I look forward to how this will all play out. I'll be on the sidelines right now, but I'll be cheering hard for all of you LLLL.com domain owners and investors.

Thanks,
zesty

 

[vlad74]

The real clear indicator of just how possible, if at all, for me will come late in the fall of this year. At that time, renewals will be due on an enormous number of LLLL.com domains.

Zesty, what do you mean by enormous number?

According to monthly number of registrations graph at dyyo, the registration was stable over the last years, see http://dyyo.com/analysis_remaining.php

dyyo.com: "We don't see much 'irrational exuberance' even at the end of buyout. The numbers of registered names in August and October 2007 is just comparable to that in September 2006, and no way close to the highest month, which was in November 2001. This is definitely a good sign as the domains are just naturally bought out. And we wont be seeing max drop in the following years."

 

[cache]

the low end need to be lifted by the chinese.

 

[Traveler]

I don't see the average or poor LLLL.com hitting $5,000 plus in the reseller market in 5 years (assuming the dollar still has the same value in 5 years). I think the current prices are where they are because of the recent sell out, there certainly was not this sort of interest a year or two ago.

 

[-REECE-]

The dollar... :hehe:

I must admit, I neglected to factor that into the calculation :red:

More hurdles will arrive in the future IMHO with the ever increasing popularity of 5L.coms (and LLLL.nets) no doubt draining long term from the LLLL.com segment.

I don't see the average or poor LLLL.com hitting $5,000 plus in the reseller market in 5 years (assuming the dollar still has the same value in 5 years). I think the current prices are where they are because of the recent sell out, there certainly was not this sort of interest a year or two ago.

 

[VURG]

No idea but if they are selling for $5000, I won't be paying it.

 

[Andrei P.]

No idea but if they are selling for $5000, I won't be paying it.

Did you think in 2001 that you will be paying 5000$ for XJQ.com like domains? I'm not telling that the price will be 5000$. XJQ.com like domains are collectibles. The same as XJQG.com-like domains. I even will not be very dissappointed if they fetch 300-500$ in 5 years. And 300-500$ doesn't look very fantastic, does it? At least this is not much more strange than paying 300$ for XJQ.org or 700$ for XJQ.net... Right? This is just a matter of demand and supply. And supply will be decreasing with years for sure. And customers from China and Korea does exist. I already received an offer for my crappy LLLL.com. Only 120 euros I counter-offered with 300 euros. Waiting for answer. I will announce the sale as soon as completed.

 

[accent]

I don't think the 5L coms or the 4L nets will have as much effect in the future as they had in the last few months. People saw September and October regs selling for $50 and were chasing the (false) dream that the same thing was about to happen in those other areas. That shock has passed. Reg fee buyers are no longer involved with LLLL.coms.

Welcome aboard, Zesty. Barring economic collapse, I think LLLL.coms will have little trouble maintaining the buyout. I value your opinions and your potential support of LLLL.coms is a sign of the sector coming of age, IMHO.

 

[VURG]

Did you think in 2001 that you will be paying 5000$ for XJQ.com like domains?

I was a poor student in 2001. I didn't really understand domains back then.

The only reason I would buy XJQ.com for $5000 would be to sell it for $7000 to somebody for a quick profit. I am not interested in XJQ.com. I'd rather pay $20,000 for a nicer LLL.com. Likewise I am not interested in the cheapest LLLL.com. I'd rather pay more for a better domain or get a better quality LLLLL.com for a cheaper price. I have a handful of low grade LLLL.com but I will sell them soon as I don't want them.

If LLLL.com went as high as $5000 in 5 years, I would expect that it would be hyped up by speculators as there is a lot better things you can do with a million dollars than buy 200 LLLL.com. I would probably be very nervous about paying that high a price and be expecting a rapid fall. I expect the lowest price to be in the $100-$500 price range by then.

 

[-REECE-]

I feel the same way about it Phil.

Why someone would spend $7000 on XJQ when they could have something much nicer like my BQB for very little more (I paid 8300 for BQB in February) is beyond me.

There are a few people around who just want an LLL.com to say they have an LLL.com -- if we take the 6 lowest quality letters (J,K,Q,X,Y,Z) and think about what represents total garbage, we're left with about 100 such examples.

I was a poor student in 2001. I didn't really understand domains back then.

The only reason I would buy XJQ.com for $5000 would be to sell it for $7000 to somebody for a quick profit. I am not interested in XJQ.com. I'd rather pay $20,000 for a nicer LLL.com. Likewise I am not interested in the cheapest LLLL.com. I'd rather pay more for a better domain or get a better quality LLLLL.com for a cheaper price. I have a handful of low grade LLLL.com but I will sell them soon as I don't want them.

If LLLL.com went as high as $5000 in 5 years, I would expect that it would be hyped up by speculators as there is a lot better things you can do with a million dollars than buy 200 LLLL.com. I would probably be very nervous about paying that high a price and be expecting a rapid fall. I expect the lowest price to be in the $100-$500 price range by then.

 

[italiandragon]

so what is the conclusion of the PRVN.com sale?

check this out:


http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/04/26/1208743326617.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2

Then do your assumptions :bingo:

 

[-REECE-]

Very interesting article!

Makes you really wonder... :]

check this out:


http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/04/26/1208743326617.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2

Then do your assumptions :bingo:

 

[DN BROKER]

check this out:


http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/04/26/1208743326617.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2

Then do your assumptions :bingo:

wow
:bingo:

 

[domeinen]

Lets do business in Euro's!! The whole world will do it soon

From today ask euro prices for LLLL.com and LLLL.net. No longer for dollars!!!