LLLL.com COUNTDOWN!

[VURG]

COUNTDOWN COMPLETE!

NO MORE 4 LETTER DOMAIN AVAILABLE TO REGISTER! ​

_______________________________________________________________

Since early 2005, I have been investing/trading with 4 letter domain names. I started this thread due to the large variation in opinions on how many four letter domains there are available. When I started, I heard a range on viewpoints ranging from 200,000 down to nothing. What I learned that most people did not know how many were available.

Sources of Error for the estimates in number of available 4 letter domains include:

Traffic Testers: These are people who buy thousands of domains at a time to see if the domains are being visited and only keep the small percentage of domains that have regular visitors and cancel their orders for the domains that don't have a regular flow of visitors.

Inefficient ways of making estimates: There are over 450 thousand possible 4-Letter domains. There are short cuts that people can take in estimating the number that been registered that don't include all domains. One short cut that is often taken is for somebody to search through a list of previously available 4 letter names that they purchased (or got for free) and assume that all the names that are not on that list are registered.

People quoting old information:The variation in the number available changes all the time. Estimates that are months old are very different than up to date estimates.

People manipulating information for a sale:It definately is true that incorrect information on the available number of 4-letter domains can intensionally be manipulated to sell 4-letter domains at a higher price. Typically the lack of supply tends to motivate people to pay higher prices.

As a 4-letter domain trader, I believe that the information of how many 4-letter domains there are is extremely valuable for two main reasons. Firstly, my pricing of my names is subject to the amount of work it requires for customer to find for similar name. Secondly, if I want to increase my stock of 4-letter names than the information of how many there are at reg fee prices is essential.

I decided to update this thread when the number of available 4-letter domains dropped to the following levels:
22% Remaining - 25th January 2006
19% Remaining - 31st March 2006
16% Remaining - 29th June 2006
13% Remaining - 1st August 2006
10% Remaining - 15th February 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early April)
9% Remaining - 26th February 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early May)
8% Remaining - 2nd March 2007 (crossed without traffic testing in June)
7% Remaining - 21st March 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early July)
6% Remaining - 3rd July 2007(crossed without traffic testing some time in July)
5% Remaining - 1st August 2007(crossed without traffic testing August 11)
4% Remaining - 14th August 2007(crossed late August)
3% Remaining - 15th September 2007(crossed In September)
2% Remaining - 14th October 2007
1% Remaining - 31st October 2007
0% Remaining - 2nd November - COUNTDOWN COMPLETE!

Although, the number of available domains does sometime rise straight after it drops due to traffic testing and people dropping their domains, I don't consider it worth mentioning unless the rise is as significant as a 3% rise in the number of available domains.

Types of Four Letter Domains that have run out include:
- ALL OF THEM!

Since I started this thread important event about four letter domains that are worth mentioning happenned:

1: Late March/Early April 2006 there was a significant shift in the market for brandable (fake words) 4-letter domains and they started selling at significantly higher prices and the market for the names has been a lot more active ever since.

2: In July 2006, a namepros member 3par launched DYYO.com as a site committed to educating people about 4 letter domains. This is an excellent resource for those who are interested in 4 letter domain names.

3: In early February 2007. All the 4 letter domains starting with the letter A ran out.

4: wasistdas won QQNQ.COM, PCZV.COM & IQKE.COM for the competition for predicting when the 4 Letter domains would run out
_______________________________________________________________
Initial Post
Less than 23% of the 4 letter domain names are unregistered. I thought I'd try to keep this thread updated every time I discover another 1% reduction. I am now routinely checking the percentage of unregisted 4 letter domains.

 

[edwinfelix]

lol :D :D
I just sold one yesterday for $50, and it's not even one of my best LLLLs.

 

[XDuncan]

hahah only 60k are left
i scanned them as at march 23rd 2006.. fulllist left 60k LLLL.coms at this rate its gonna be gone soon within this year or next

--

They will be gone in 3 months, becuase once they get under 50, random folks will buy an LLLL.com to say they own one.

 

[VURG]

vurg...it is for sure not clear that the numbers are systematically going down as there as a high drop-out rate going against the reg stream as you have pointed out...there are still a few worth regging though

I think that there is a downward trend but the numbers seem to be fluctuating plus or minus 1.5% of the average trend. There is more than 60000 unregisterd LLLL.com domains. My estimate for today is 94431. I now have a page where I put up my weekly estimates. (VISIT PAGE) If you visit my page you can see that the estimates go down more often than they go up. (7 out of 10 times.)

I think that there may be somebody buying 4 letter domains that start with the letter A. I only found 1 of the 98 that I checked today unregistered.

Does somebody have a list of the unregistered 4 letter domains starting with the letter A?

I will aim to make a comment when I see the domains cross the 19% remaining barrier but I still haven't seen that happen yet.

 

[cache]

so from your data, it looks like the un-reg llll.com did come down. But the rate is pretty small, it will take not just one year, but could be many years.

One question: how did you estimate it to be 90K while Malaysia claimed the full list to be 60K?

I think that there is a downward trend but the numbers seem to be fluctuating plus or minus 1.5% of the average trend. There is more than 60000 unregisterd LLLL.com domains. My estimate for today is 94431. I now have a page where I put up my weekly estimates. (VISIT PAGE) If you visit my page you can see that the estimates go down more often than they go up. (7 out of 10 times.)

I think that there may be somebody buying 4 letter domains that start with the letter A. I only found 1 of the 98 that I checked today unregistered.

Does somebody have a list of the unregistered 4 letter domains starting with the letter A?

I will aim to make a comment when I see the domains cross the 19% remaining barrier but I still haven't seen that happen yet.

 

[VURG]

I use a sampling procedure testing a stratified sample of 2600 potential domain names.

I have seen a large variety of answers for determining the number of unregistered domains and so I stick to my method of sampling. It is quick and it doesn't have the risks associated with looking at all 456956 possibilities. Being a statistician by trade, I am very confident that my sampling procedure gives a relatively accurate estimate.

I am guessing that Malaysia has an accurate list of 60000 unregistered domains but has missed out on all the domains that have dropped since the initial list was generated (I don't actually know why there is a difference in our estimates). I do know that there is a lot that can go wrong when trying to generate an accurate up to date list of unregistered domains of all the domains and that by the time you have finished the list, some on the list are registered.

(aaxy.com currently unregistered. This is a good one!)

 

[XDuncan]

(aaxy.com currently unregistered. This is a good one!)

--

Thanks a ton -- I regged it. BTW the first 4,000 A combo names are now regged.

THERE ARE ONLY 543 ALLL.COM'S LEFT.

COMPLETE LIST HERE: http://www.furca.com/4letter.txt

 

[kev]

hi there,

do you have the script for this for sale?

Thanks

 

[ilcesco]

hi there,

do you have the script for this for sale?

Thanks

http://www.avuw.com/llll_com.asp

Have fun

 

[cache]

a lot of names from that list are regged already.

http://www.avuw.com/llll_com.asp

Have fun

 

[ilcesco]

a lot of names from that list are regged already.

I know.. that list is about 2 months old.. but it's a good starting point.

 

[floatingworld]

if it is thought that the point has been reached that any 4L.com achieves at least reg fee, then it is a 1-way bet and the rest will be progressively hoovered up, particularly if the current godaddy loophole is used.

 

[edwinfelix]

Every day more LLLL.com are being registered. Right now garbage LLLL domains are $5, a relatively decent one's ~$10, and the price is steadily rising.

 

[Malaysia]

yeah i did not take into account those that have drop.. about 50 are dropped daily as i can see.. but the list of 60k was scanned in one night ... so its the unregged remaind of taht day itself..

 

[VURG]

19% Remaining!!

19% REMAINING

I checked today and 19% of the 4 letter domains are remaining. That's a drop of 5% in three months. (~23000) I have also noticed that my domains are selling faster now. I think that there has been a big shift in opinions of 4 letter domains in the past month.

I checked back on previous comments and I think there was around 33% remaining 10 months ago.

NEXT UPDATE AT 16% REMAINING!

 

[Malaysia]

where did u check?
i check there is only 13% remaining

 

[floatingworld]

Every day more LLLL.com are being registered. Right now garbage LLLL domains are $5, a relatively decent one's ~$10, and the price is steadily rising.

the garbage needs to clear $10 per name before there is a total mop up or there is a 3 month consistent rise in the minimum price reached to spark off a final feeding frenzy which might even be suddenly executed overnight.

 

[VURG]

I generated a random list of 2595 domains and I used a bulk search tool to find how many were available. Attached is the random list of domains that I checked for availability and the list of domains that were available.

There were 494 which came up available. If there was 13% remaining the number available would be around 340.

Malaysia, why don't you check if there are any in the list of the 494 that are not on your list and also check their availability. If I'm right there should be more than 100.

 

[MCDomains]

Did You Know?

I have 18.7% remaining LLLL.com's from my large random pool scans.

Over the last few weeks I have them disappearing @ a rate of 0.06% a day.

 

[fonzie_007]

I assume then that more are being regged than dropping?

 

[MCDomains]

I assume then that more are being regged than dropping?

Exactly.

The percentage rate of disappearing LLLL.com's takes into account the drops.