Located in Domain Marketplace Reviews started by wwwweb, May 6, 2019.
Could be. Thanks.
slowatch.si (company in Slovenia)
HD using multiple estimate values (>$1k) + more DNFX (functions s.a. traffic, consumers, popularity [name mentions] etc) /analysis) before catching up with the bidder/s.
You should have run them up about $130, and make them eat it a bit. You can’t trust what’s real of fake anymore. You can pretty much tell whose on the other side when all is quiet, and you place a bit, and all the sudden it’s the hottest ticket in town.
HaHa, I've thought about that. But I'd hate to be left holding the bag, overpaying. It does sometimes give me some satisfaction when I've run the price up high for them, and then back out.
Godaddy auctions is out of control, the appraisals are throwing people way off.
How do I know this?
Bidding back since 2007, many names I bought back in the day, and forgot to remove from aftermarket sites after selling them. Some of them after holding for years with only a few inquiries until the right one came in.
Going back, and seeing how I paid $xx for these names, and selling them to end users for $xxxx, and now seeing them drop a few years after, and seeing them sell to investors for higher $xxxx, it’s insanity. Albeit still getting $xx-$xxx lowball offers on them while still listed in some of my aftermarket accounts.
90% of people are going to lose money paying these prices, especially if the economy turns, or there is a tech sector shakeout, and credit gets locked up.
I know domains are worth more, but end users are cheaper than ever in some cases, with high off the key appraisals, bidding up bots, and newbie investors chasing hoop dreams you are going to make more selling what you have, and holding it for better re-entry.
I don’t know Huge Domains angle, but we know sell thru rates, even going back when domains were cheap, paying a few hundred for hundreds of domains a day, thru the course of years, it just doesn’t add up. The sell thru rates can’t be more than 2-3% with that broad of a portfolio. On Rivertime.com, We saw huge names entered at $2xx, and bid the eventual high bidder to about $7xx. They made the house $500 in that one auction, with their participation. Do that a few hundred times a day, and do the math.
Smart money is best on the sidelines, but I still see people get bid onto huge names bid up, and you know what most of these bidders keep bidding, and win it, Huge Domains is consistently bidding them up hundreds of dollars with nobody else in sight. Something is seriously off, valuations, and bids are inflated.
Domains are great, but end users for the most part have a lot of options, and most will play those out first, unless they really take off, and they will come back for their first pick, but these are long shots.
Let them pay, they won’t be able to move the names at marked up prices from their over payments, and majority will have to sell for other reasons after years of being lowballed.
i dont think HD will pay the won price, there can be a mutual understanding between GD and HD.
Excellent points wwwweb. I agree with everything you said. Well, with one exception: It's more likely 99% of buyers at GD auctions will lose money!
I especially agree with your point, "Domains are great, but end users for the most part have a lot of options, and most will play those out first, unless they really take off, and they will come back for their first pick, but these are long shots."
When I buy a domain for investment, I always put myself in the shoes of a business looking for a name, and think "what are all my options?" There could be other ways to word something, of course; since SEO for organci search is practically dead, the words in a name matter less than they used to. But it is also accepted to use other TLD's now. There is no downside to using, .io, for example, for a tech business. And this is why I usually only will pay $xx/xxx for a name and almost always price them affordably in the high $xxx to low $xxxx range. There are exceptions for more valuable names, of course.
In domains these days, the important thing is to minimize risk.
That would be pretty bad. If you could prove that, it would be quite a scandal (lawsuit).
this is just my opinion and i dont have any proof to prove, if HD really needs the domain then why the BOT is not participating after second bidder beats the HD auto bid? i dont think HD has MAD to buy below avg domains for $200 or $250.
Yes, your 99% is much more accurate.
Something doesn’t seem right to me, if huge names wants more names, all they need to do is send their drop auctions that get 10+ backorders to auctions, and keep the rest.
Why pay hundreds of dollars at godaddy, as domain investors bidding 10%+ of artificial appraised values makes no sense. They simply need to auction the cream of the catch business, and keep the cheap inventory to fill their 7 million name war chest. If it’s really about acquiring more names, why not go thru this route also.
If you want to beat huge domains bot just make them pay, I have made them buy 6 subpar names today for just over $1K. Their proxy wall is at 9-12% of appraised value, if they want to buy them by the dozen so be it.
They continue to hit the closeouts hard, you can see the counter climb with every refresh when they are hitting it, at which point it will be to late as their bot will out click you. Otherwise you will have to pay 10% if you try to snipe it at $12, as their bot will throw up the proxy bid based on appraised value.
When you say appraised value, do you mean the Godaddy appraisal? And, is the 9-12% something you've quantified, or just a general feel?
Yes, the Godaddy appraisal, on the lower level domains I am seeing that 9-12% range for the most part. I haven't documented it in an excel spreadsheet, more of a rule of thumb I am noticing. I am sure they have a human watching their bot, who can override, or update the bigger name bids, but the proxy wall I am seeing that %.
Further playing with this bot, if you are in a low level closing auction, 1-3 bidders, and you somehow take the top bid with say $38, and 15-20 seconds later you hear that outbid beep, most likely its bidder 91932 who has honed in on that auction. Now if you check the appraised value and see around $2,xxx, place a few min bids, and if you continue to get outbid, most likely you will need to bid closer to $215-$250 range to win it, otherwise you will need to leave the auction to them if it doesn’t fit your valuation. Their bot is a disease playing many different scenarios, just taxing users one by one, I am sure many here know by now by the pattern when they are up against this bot who is going to play in that 8-12% of appraised value range.
I am keenly following this thread every time you post. Good job on invastigating on your own time.
Have you seen if the bot ever bids on domains which have a near zero evaluation by gd? Have you ever noticed that the bot bids judt below your proxy bid?
Every .com auction at godaddy is at least $1K in their valuation books, they tend to hone in on that $1500+ auction, which is of quality.
I usually don't play high proxies, so I am usually chasing the bots proxy, but I noticed their number is more tied to the appraised value godaddy puts on the name within their own appraisal.
Basically bottom line you are not going to get a $3,000 appraised domain with some keyword value for $50 anymore, you are going to have to pay $200+ for it, the odd one might get thru, but domainers need to up their budgets, or change their strategies. Paying this kind of money for every domain, is just madness as you will blow thru a warchest, and the economy most likely goes negative before you have a chance to recoup your funds, the risk outweighs the reward, but domains to most are a dime a dozen, don't ever chase a huge domains bot, unless you really need the name, bid them up, and let them have it. There is no way they will keep bidding such high valuations if they get auctions that keep getting dropped on them at the higher end of their proxy bid.
And they do this only for expired auctions and not user auctions, correct? Don't you find that curious?
Just an idea - since the number of regular participants is limited and more-or-less stable in any moment, the bot owner may 1) ask godaddy to show them real bidder ids 2) have such a request approved 3) change their strategy based on who placed the first bid. In particular, they will need this to minimize the following side effect-
Also: @wwwweb , did your experiments help to make a conclusion that the bot in question may be already receiving the content of all "watch lists" as soon as somebody adds a domain to their watchlist?
Yes, you bring up a very good point, I am sure their bot can find value in user listings also, but only auctions get hit.
Yes. They can only bid so high when godaddy gets paid for the auction. They never do it when a user needs to be paid for the auction. And we have agreed that it should be impossible to keep making money with their business model.
I can't find anything conclusive regarding watchlists, but I did notice that I was in one auction, just $5 back and forth, around 2 bidders prior, I came in at the 5 min few second mark, and put a $60 bid, and was the top bidder at around $35 or so, and 15 seconds later I get that dreaded outbid, so I place a minimum bid, the dreaded red you have been outbid, another minimum bid same deal, so then I place a $199 proxy, outbid at $204, so wait for the auction to end, and it's bidder 91932. The other 2 bidders didn't participate, and if I hadn't they would have had it for about $65. Now they had to pay $204 + renewal.
That domain was appraised at $2500 that they won.
Same deal if you had LLLL.com in your auction listing page at godaddy, you just get lowball offers, but if it is in godaddy auctions, you know it's going for top dollar. I don't get the divide, they could probably buy domains cheaper in portfolio buys if they are looking for large numbers of domains. Otherwise close off dropcatch domains that get less than 10 backorders, and keep them for yourself, and pay minimal fee, and still keep the cream of the crop auction money. I don't truly understand the angle, but Godaddy is making a fortune with huge domains bot, like literally a fortune.
By participating in non-expired auctions, they will indirectly support other domainers. Which thing may be incompatible with their global business model. It is somewhat similar to a prohibition to use namebright api access for manual dropcatching (all dropping domains will be shown as unavailable, as clearly written somewhere on namebright website) for example.
Moreover, if they receive a cashback or anything from their expireds purchases - then there would be little or no space for such a cashback in non-expired auctions...
On the other hand, by not bidding on other people's domains, they help other domainers keep quality names. In a perfect world for them, they want to own as many good domains as possible and they want others to own as few good domains as possible.
If they can afford to pay so much for crap expired domains because they allegedly still make a profit, then they can afford to buy people's domains too, because they should be making even more profit then.
Separate names with a comma.