How and why the US housing market causing the collapse is complete B.S.

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JMJ

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Some people are fully aware of this but for those that aren't here's the answer. I'm tired of seeing all of these reports everywhere saying that the US housing market was the cause of the global financial collapse. So to prove to my belief and to explain to those who don't understand I did a little number crunching. I'm not a reporter nor do I want to be so I'll just point out a few of my findings and let you do your own homework.

There are roughly 90,000,000 homes in the US. An estimated 10% of all homes are paid in full. According to calculatedriskblog.com the "Fed's estimate of household real estate assets at the end of 2006: $20.6 Trillion, we can estimate the total dollar value of houses with and without mortgages." So if we subtract the 10% paid in full then we come to $18.4 Trillion. If my math is correct (not a mathematician either) this works out to an average loan amount of roughly $204,444.

It's estimated that there are going to be somewhere along the lines of 3.2 million foreclosure filings this year. Based on our $204,444 average loan amount that comes to $654,220,800,000, around the initial $700 billion requested. Based on these figures the $700 billion would pay for every single home estimated to have "foreclosure filing" in full for 08. Now you would think, ok, so they aren't lying to us. But that's not the case. First and foremost a large number of these homes are auctioned off, sold on short sales, etc, etc. So the amount wouldn't be anywhere near the full amount.

Then you have to add in the factor of fractional banking which is where Bloomberg arrives at it's $7.7 trillion. According to Bloomberg the bailout now actually currently stands at $8.5 Trillion but let's go with the initial report from them of $7.7 Trillion. (They have since deleted the articles so I can't provide the source) Imagine that, hiding the truth. If you need confirmation all you have to do is search "bloomberg $7.7 trillion" or $8.5 trillion and you'll find many reputable sources quoting them. I did find one article on Bloomberg saying it again buried deep in another article but anyway lets move on. The Fed has only tapped half of the initial funds. So that would come to 3.85 trillion.

Now we have to ask ourselves where has the other $3.2+ trillion gone to? Bloomberg also mentioned trillions disappearing and has filed a suit regarding it. So why do they really need the remainder. The only assumption one can come to is Credit Default Swaps aka Derivatives and the pockets of already very rich people. Lets also not forget all of the money disappearing from everyone's 401k's, retirement and investment accounts but I guess that's another topic.

If you need further education on how fractional banking works I suggest these two videos.

Money As Debt


For the advanced course

The Money Masters
 
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AfternicAfternic
what about the houses that are being foreclosed on in '09, '10, etc.
 
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shockie said:
what about the houses that are being foreclosed on in '09, '10, etc.

That's a good question. The current way they are trying to solve the problem isn't working. They are literally tossing cash into the fire to keep it burning. If allowed they will continue to do so until we're all homeless.
 
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I believe that the Fed is trying to hide the true scope of the financial crisis. The funds allocated will not come close to satisfying the financial needs of all of the corporate, individual and governmental entities that have been over-leveraged for years.

Consider all of the financial institutions in hot water right now. Then consider the automakers. Then the other corporations who will be affected by the shrinking economy. Then consider the state and city governments who can't pay their bills. Then consider the growing number of people who won't be able to pay their mortgages. Don't forget the increasing jobless rate, and you have a gigantic problem that can't be solved by printing more money.

Edit: Also, don't forget that the government has guaranteed deposits up to $250,000. How they are going to adequately insure everyone's money beats the heck out of me.

Here's a blogpost with a list of where govt funds were allocated.
http://investing.calsci.com/blog12-5-08.html

For those interested, that site also has a great deal of football info :hehe:
 
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JMJ said:
That's a good question. The current way they are trying to solve the problem isn't working. They are literally tossing cash into the fire to keep it burning. If allowed they will continue to do so until we're all homeless.

I think the point he is making is that you haven't factored this into your calculations. 2009, 2010 foreclosures.

What is the market value of a sub prime loan portfolio?, That would give you a far better indicator of the extent of the losses. From what I have heard they currently trade at around 50 cents in the dollar. The extent of the bailout gets magnified from everything else falling apart, sub prime started it all.
 
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Interesting math JMJ -- thanks for sharing.

yandig said:
Edit: Also, don't forget that the government has guaranteed deposits up to $250,000. How they are going to adequately insure everyone's money beats the heck out of me.
Fed can always just print more money.
 
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snoop said:
I think the point he is making is that you haven't factored this into your calculations. 2009, 2010 foreclosures.

What is the market value of a sub prime loan portfolio?, That would give you a far better indicator of the extent of the losses. From what I have heard they currently trade at around 50 cents in the dollar. The extent of the bailout gets magnified from everything else falling apart, sub prime started it all.

I understood the question. You don't fix the problem by doing the same things that got you into the situation to begin with. Everything else is blowing up because they aren't going to the root of the problem. They are just tossing more cash into the fire.
 
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Now I certainly agree with that.

JMJ said:
I understood the question. You don't fix the problem doing the same things that got you into the situation to begin with.
 
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-REECE- said:
Interesting math JMJ -- thanks for sharing.


Fed can always just print more money.

All of this money they are printing is going to soon flow into the economy. After the current state of deflation all of that cash will cause hyper-inflation. If you think the cost of food is high now. Wait until that happens.
 
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JMJ said:
All of this money they are printing is going to soon flow into the economy. After the current state of deflation all of that cash will cause hyper-inflation. If you think the cost of food is high now. Wait until that happens.
And the dollar will collapse on the world stage.

The REAL debt of America (including future obligations, such as Social Security payments) is between $50-70 trillion, or around $200,000 for each citizen. We have racked up over 10% of that in the last few months alone.
 
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yandig said:
And the dollar will collapse on the world stage.

The REAL debt of America (including future obligations, such as Social Security payments) is between $50-70 trillion, or around $200,000 for each citizen. We have racked up over 10% of that in the last few months alone.

ALL of it is a scam. WE haven't racked up that much. The bankers and brokerages have been racking it up with the bets they were making with each other (CDS/derivitives) for years and hiding all of their losses for years. They are just using us as a scapegoat. They know they can't fulfill the coming SSI obligations which is the biggest scam of them all. Actually let me correct that. The Federal Reserve (central banking) is the biggest scam of them all. Then followed by SSI and the IRS/taxes.
 
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Yeah I completely agree -- there's no way SSI is getting paid (unless the Fed prints and prints and prints some more :| ). Hyperinflation will eventually be a reality -- you can't just keep printing money without consequence (Zimbabwe doesn't seem to have learned this lesson yet).

I also think we all know that real inflation over the past decade (and by real I mean how much more your average good costs, not the BS number the government tells you is inflation) has been a lot higher than they actually say it is.

JMJ said:
ALL of it is a scam. WE haven't racked up that much. The bankers and brokerages have been racking it up with the bets they were making with each other (CDS/derivitives) for years and hiding all of their losses for years. They are just using us as a scapegoat. They know they can't fulfill the coming SSI obligations which is the biggest scam of them all. Actually let me correct that. The Federal Reserve (central banking) is the biggest scam of them all. Then followed by SSI and the IRS/taxes.

JMJ said:
All of this money they are printing is going to soon flow into the economy. After the current state of deflation all of that cash will cause hyper-inflation. If you think the cost of food is high now. Wait until that happens.
 
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