discuss Is the Housing Market about to Crash?

[lennco]

We all know that the housing market is at an all time high.

A couple of weeks ago Zillow announced they are "Halting" buying homes.
And for those who are not aware Zillow has been the one buying up a lot of the homes at higher prices and out bidding you and I in the past couple of years making prices go way up.

Also a few weeks ago they lowered all of their home prices and many of their homes are now lower then the prices they paid for them and today they announced the are selling (dumping) 7000 homes.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/z...-real-estate-market-11634678311?siteid=yhoof2

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/01/a...igh-sell-low-take-one-time-noncash-charge-no/

What is the future of the housing market for the next few years?

 

[Cal2]

I don't know about the US housing market, but Zillow's stock tanked. Down to 85.00 today from 105.00 last Friday.

As for the (longer term) housing market future, I'm watching things like:

ICON’s 3D Printing Construction Technology to Build 100 New Homes in Texas​

https://3dprint.com/286180/icons-3d...n-technology-to-build-100-new-homes-in-texas/

I can see these getting better while getting cheaper.

 

[johname]

Well, the next crash won't be just in housing, And it won't be predictable. Just got to wait and wonder

 

[lennco]

Well, the next crash won't be just in housing, And it won't be predictable. Just got to wait and wonder

As far as predictability goes for the next worldwide major crash, I think we can see that China's economy is built on a house of cards and their inflated currency and the amount of money spent on mega ghost cities not too mention them starting to crack down on their capitalism experiment will someday come back to bite them hard and most likely have a ripple effect that could send us and the rest of the world in a crash. Or not

But as far as our housing market goes, nothing can go up forever. Can it?

 

[lennco]

Zillow took 'massive losses' on Phoenix homes, laying off 25% of workforce​

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2021/11/02/zillow-massive-losses-phoenix.html?ana=yahoo

Is this just a Zillow problem?

 

[Cal2]

Zillow took 'massive losses' on Phoenix homes, laying off 25% of workforce​

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2021/11/02/zillow-massive-losses-phoenix.html?ana=yahoo

Is this just a Zillow problem?

Something in my email today:

Zillow Leaves Home-Flipping to the Property Brothers​

Zillow’s home-flipping business is a flop. The online real estate company said yesterday it’s shutting down the unit and reducing its overall workforce by 25%. Why? “We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated,” CEO Rich Barton said. In other words, what happened in the Excel spreadsheet didn't translate to real life… Zillow Offers, the company’s algorithmic home-buying business, lost $381 million last quarter. And its demise wasn't exactly a shock: Over two weeks ago, Zillow said it would stop buying homes for the remainder of 2021 because it didn’t have the bandwidth to work its way out of a backlog. Earlier this week, an analyst pointed out that 66% of the homes Zillow bought were listed below their purchase price. Looking ahead...Zillow also said yesterday that it has 9,800 homes it still needs to sell, and an additional 8,200 beyond those it’s already in contract to purchase (and would then need to flip). It expects to lose 5%–7% on those sales.—JW

 

[Mister Funsky]

What is the future of the housing market for the next few years?

Going to be some tough times ahead...what goes up must come down.

Lots of factors have combined to create the current 'bubble' and there is no long term sustainability to the market increase (long term is the key). Short term, money can be made. I'm getting ready to start working on a flip if my money man comes thru (first rule of invest club is don't invest your own money).

Going to get the property for about 150k and put about 25k into it. If zoning will work out, we will add about 20K more to add 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Target sale price will be about 400k.

However, I think things will slowly wind down and much will depend on the next election cycle(s).

Of course, I could be wrong.

 

[alcy]

smart guy once said

buy land... they dont make any more of it

 

[biggie]

buy land... they dont make any more of it

Hi

in Hawaii they do

still, housing is in demand and i don't see it crashing unless interest rates increase dramatically

also, zillow isn't in control of housing sales, as there are others like realtor.com, redfin.com, properties.com and many others who buy homes "as-is".

imo....

 

[mr-x]

still, housing is in demand and i don't see it crashing unless interest rates increase dramatically

Construction is still booming in my part of the USA. Material prices have increased but so has demand.

also, zillow isn't in control of housing sales, as there are others like realtor.com, redfin.com, properties.com and many others who buy homes "as-is".

imo....

 

[jhm]

It will become apparent that if there is any kind of change in housing of all things, it will apply to a lot of other things too. Homes generally go up as the decades pass, regardless of corrections / short term pricing. Homes in Central London worth millions aren't effected, ever (but that's different). IMO

 

[lennco]

It will become apparent that if there is any kind of change in housing of all things, it will apply to a lot of other things too. Homes generally go up as the decades pass, regardless of corrections / short term pricing. Homes in Central London worth millions aren't effected, ever (but that's different). IMO

It the long term homes have always and will always go up. Just not always in a straight line.

Our family home we sold in 1971 sold for $17k, today I checked and that home is worth $700k
Since then we had a few stagnet periods, several corrections and one crash.

Corrections, big and small are healthy for the long term market.

 

[jhm]

It the long term homes have always and will always go up. Just not always in a straight line.

Our family home we sold in 1971 sold for $17k, today I checked and that home is worth $700k
Since then we had a few stagnet periods, several corrections and one crash.

Corrections, big and small are healthy for the long term market.

You're right. I can tell you my parents ran a hotel business in the late 80s, that they had a mortgage on. I think my Mother told me it was a £500k - £600k mortgage, and that's a lot of money at that time. Today, that property is worth "X" million (they're now divorced, bad marriage). Its funny looking back sometimes. Several decades ahead, a million dollar home may be an average price

 

[.X.]

Correction of 20% or more IMO … people that purchased in this market are going to be way upside down in months and years to come IMO

 

[lennco]

Correction of 20% or more IMO … people that purchased in this market are going to be way upside down in months and years to come IMO

This is something we both agree on.