debate Has the bubble burst ?

[geek80]

Well these are the auctions results yesterday at 4.cn for the so called "CHIPS" .

xnmq.com - 1573 USD
zlhq.com - 1542 USD
qfnq.com - 1631 USD

So has the bubble burst or Am I totally wrong?

Welcome your views on this.

 

[dilipbagdi]

Temporary...

 

[namerav]

Little down....maybe after 3-6 months it will be transparent.

 

[yogiDomain]

Well these are the auctions results yesterday at 4.cn for the so called "CHIPS" .

xnmq.com - 1573 USD
zlhq.com - 1542 USD
qfnq.com - 1631 USD

So has the bubble burst or Am I totally wrong?

Welcome your views on this.

The chinese market is now starting to mature and they are able understand between whats good domain and whats just average.

IMO the average domains are loosing its value and good one are going up.

Thats just MO

Your post might actually create a bit panic and you might see some LLLL.com chips auction coming soon

 

[metwebber]

Why is this happening if it is temporary ?
Any information about the drop

 

[geek80]

@yogiDomain just wanted to understand the current trend

 

[joro001]

Good question OP.

The truth is no one really knows for sure.
However, what is clear is we are a mile away from the 18,000 + RMB floor seen in October and have never retested that high since (yet anyway). Average chips were selling regularly on namejet for $3k+ in October and looking at these results, we are starting to close in on half the value gone, going from the peak. Once you take away 15-20% commission at godaddy/namejet, $1500 net is pretty much what you would get right now for average chips.

Everyone has a different opinion on this, however, these are the lowest prices that have been seen for a substantial period of time (Chinese new year was a month ago so don't know if that is a fair excuse anymore). It is my belief that if prices keep on going down much longer we could start to see some real panic setting in, especially from smaller holders IMO.

Many bought in when prices were $2/2.5k+ each and have held hoping for things to bounce back. Well as we know we are a long way away from those buyers being able to even get out level, never mind for any kind of ROI. The question is, how much longer and how much stomach do investors really have to potentially see more value and time lost with no clear prospect of a significant bounceback (rhetorical question, as of course the answer will vary from investor to investor).

My feeling is some of the big Chinese investors dumped their chips a long time ago and demand isn't what it was. I think they have moved to other markets where they can buy in bulk (5l.com chips, 4l. whatevers for cheap in bulk etc.) and get bigger ROI faster. I have also tracked volume on chaomi for months and there have only been a small number of days where significant volume (over 100 sales in a day) have occurred since November.

It could all change tomorrow or whenever and the big investors jump back in and prices go back somewhere close to old highs in the coming months. However, I would not want to be a big 4l.com chip holder right now.

Each to their own!

 

[domeen]

I am surprised that the price levels lasted that long. But then again Chinese are known for creating big bubbles.

 

[tiawalling]

Bubbles will burst anyway. Some creates the bubble and the rest marvels and chases after it.
Follow your heart, not the bubble.

 

[DGMDomains]

I feel 4L.com chip prices are all over the place right now. Maybe they got it for a nice price without the seller not knowing the price market?

Who knows...

 

[dbustin]

chip.nets are following the decline at 10% of chip.coms highest chip.net yesterday was 187

 

[wwwweb]

The letters L N R Q P have fallen out of favor, all those domains contain those letters oddly enough

 

[Kevin A]

I own a non chip 4l.com and just bought a western and Chinese premium . Net. I'm praying for break even on the com because I over paid. the . Net I'm far less concerned because I'm in at market price or so after fees with close to 2 years reg. Plus it's of high quality.

 

[Prometheus]

I don't think that the chinese market will crash soon. Also not sure what kind of bubble it is. I wouldn't define it as a bubble though. Here, we are talking about growing demand, but growing supply as well. Still many investors out there and are eager to flip more. Honestly, I am not expecting a crash. Maybe it's time to invest...

 

[wwwweb]

I don't think that the chinese market will crash soon. Also not sure what kind of bubble it is. I wouldn't define it as a bubble though. Here, we are talking about growing demand, but growing supply as well. Still many investors out there and are eager to flip more. Honestly, I am not expecting a crash.

The Chinese are about % return on capital, for the longest time we saw the 4L.com chips trading in the $2000-$2500 range, there can be no return on capital unless someone is willing to pay over $2500 for those names.

If you talk to any end user who sat with such chips in their portfolio for the past decade the sell thru rate on so called chips is like 1% a year on a portfolio basis to end users who on average were probably in the $1-10K range.

So unless these holders of Chips can get something going in the upward direction, chances are if they are in the money, they are looking to take some profit, and chase something with a bit more upside, that is why there has been such volume movement in 5L.com.

Nobody really understands what is going on here, there are various reasons, various expectations, at the end of the day, do not be foolish, and think the Chinese will come save the day, they are looking to profit just like you, only thing is they are more willing to do so at your expense, not that of their own.

 

[Kevin A]

I don't think that the chinese market will crash soon. Also not sure what kind of bubble it is. I wouldn't define it as a bubble though. Here, we are talking about growing demand, but growing supply as well. Still many investors out there and are eager to flip more. Honestly, I am not expecting a crash. Maybe it's time to invest...

Very true plus the internet is growing and shorter is better therefore the Chinese may soon not be the only buyers. What about the rest of Asia including India?

 

[wwwweb]

I don't think that the chinese market will crash soon. Also not sure what kind of bubble it is. I wouldn't define it as a bubble though. Here, we are talking about growing demand, but growing supply as well. Still many investors out there and are eager to flip more. Honestly, I am not expecting a crash. Maybe it's time to invest...

https://www.namepros.com/threads/10...m-4l-net-3l-co-3l-net-3l-org-pbbr-org.925789/

You maybe conflicted in your statements, I see you have a large investment made in order to speculate in this space

I don't see anyone bidding, or buying? These were averaging $60 in December

 

[Domain Shane]

Transition of money into the next push. If you know where the money is going to flow there is still great money to be made. Yes, people are booking profits. Crash no, lower prices and soft market? Absolutely. You can watch the movement in and out if you have data. Western CHiP LLLL.com are going to do dramatically better than the Chinese letters as predicted by many. Also you can see a selling of the higher priced stuff to get into the better ROI names. $1500 is still a great price to sell those terrible Western letters. Anyone who was buying LLLL.com with Qs for over $2,000 was gambling.

@Prometheus You still have those ABBC WeChip 4L.cos in your sig?

 

[Prometheus]

https://www.namepros.com/threads/10...m-4l-net-3l-co-3l-net-3l-org-pbbr-org.925789/

You maybe conflicted in your statements, I see you have a large investment made in order to speculate in this space

I don't see anyone bidding, or buying? These were averaging $60 in December

I am a short-term investor. Buying and selling at the same time. Recently purchased hundreds of xyz thanks to the namecheap discount. Coz, I believe that the market will grow a bit.

Transition of money into the next push. If you know where the money is going to flow there is still great money to be made. Yes, people are booking profits. Crash no, lower prices and soft market? Absolutely. You can watch the movement in and out if you have data. Western CHiP LLLL.com are going to do dramatically better than the Chinese letters as predicted by many. Also you can see a selling of the higher priced stuff to get into the better ROI names. $1500 is still a great price to sell those terrible Western letters. Anyone who was buying LLLL.com with Qs for over $2,000 was gambling.

@Prometheus You still have those ABBC WeChip 4L.cos in your sig?

Yes, I have ~250 4L.co left. Thinking to hold them since I am a fan of CO.

 

[DomainVP]

All of this fluff is bananas.

The prices are following a similar BTC 'crash' that started in December.

and steadily dropping, as predicted.

Yes, domains are different from Bitcoin in that on their own each one has different metrics that can make them more or less valuable... but this floor price will continue be deflated until all 4L has the same floor.

Expect the prices to continue downward. Sorry to those that spent $2k on a gibberish 4L because it had 'pinyin' letters, but you were warned long ago.

I would not be shocked if these found an $800 - $900 floor, and all 4L's ended up being this price at some point this year.

 

[Domain Shane]

All of this fluff is bananas.

The prices are following a similar BTC 'crash' that started in December.

and steadily dropping, as predicted.

Yes, domains are different from Bitcoin in that on their own each one has different metrics that can make them more or less valuable... but this floor price will continue be deflated until all 4L has the same floor.

Expect the prices to continue downward. Sorry to those that spent $2k on a gibberish 4L because it had 'pinyin' letters, but you were warned long ago.

I would not be shocked if these found an $800 - $900 floor, and all 4L's ended up being this price at some point this year.

You had me util "all 4Ls have the same floor". Now you're just making stuff up

 

[DomainVP]

You had me util "all 4Ls have the same floor". Now you're just making stuff up

Well not ALL, I mean the ones that are going for $200 - $300 now will go up and the CHIPs relying on a 'floor' price will come down. That was an unclear generalization on my part, I admit.

 

[Kevin A]

I'd be fine with that. As would everyone in the low end 4l market. Call me old school but having come into domaining initially around 08 the fact that X Q Z W and such are considered premium in any way is something I'm not really comfortable with, at least not yet.

 

[DomainVP]

I'd be fine with that. As would everyone in the low end 4l market. Call me old school but having come into domaining initially around 08 the fact that X Q Z W and such are considered premium in any way is something I'm not really comfortable with, at least not yet.

I can see that. Even when I started these CHIPS were $20 - $30 a piece.

I don't think 4L's will ever see that price again, but there is a lot of room to come down.

 

[S-B]

I partially agree with @Domain Shane. The market is maturing and money is flowing in other directions. There is only so much money in the industry so when 6n.coms pop up, .whatever grows, it takes away value from other areas. He also brings up a good point, those of us with data will always win.