debate Has the bubble burst ?

[geek80]

Well these are the auctions results yesterday at 4.cn for the so called "CHIPS" .

xnmq.com - 1573 USD
zlhq.com - 1542 USD
qfnq.com - 1631 USD

So has the bubble burst or Am I totally wrong?

Welcome your views on this.

 

[4pm]

buy now or cry later

...or alternatively: buy now and cry later

 

[MR PACKER]

No need to panic........

Just completed a transaction to a Chinese investor today.
All 17 CHIPS for $2,000 each.

And he wants more!!

bhpq.com
fmrz.com
gbwx.com
hpjm.com
mjdt.com
nxlt.com
nzhc.com
nzmf.com
wfzh.com
wjkt.com
wkzy.com
wmlr.com
wnmr.com
wrmp.com
wxgl.com
wykl.com
wzmr.com

:D

 

[betthelot]

No asset or stock, raises in a straight line. It depends on your investing strategy. Short term investing you are subject to volatility, long term investing you are looking more at trends, over at least a year plus and therefore it looks less like a burst and more of a normal correction, that all assets experience.

 

[joro001]

Good question OP.

The truth is no one really knows for sure.
However, what is clear is we are a mile away from the 18,000 + RMB floor seen in October and have never retested that high since (yet anyway). Average chips were selling regularly on namejet for $3k+ in October and looking at these results, we are starting to close in on half the value gone, going from the peak. Once you take away 15-20% commission at godaddy/namejet, $1500 net is pretty much what you would get right now for average chips.

Everyone has a different opinion on this, however, these are the lowest prices that have been seen for a substantial period of time (Chinese new year was a month ago so don't know if that is a fair excuse anymore). It is my belief that if prices keep on going down much longer we could start to see some real panic setting in, especially from smaller holders IMO.

Many bought in when prices were $2/2.5k+ each and have held hoping for things to bounce back. Well as we know we are a long way away from those buyers being able to even get out level, never mind for any kind of ROI. The question is, how much longer and how much stomach do investors really have to potentially see more value and time lost with no clear prospect of a significant bounceback (rhetorical question, as of course the answer will vary from investor to investor).

My feeling is some of the big Chinese investors dumped their chips a long time ago and demand isn't what it was. I think they have moved to other markets where they can buy in bulk (5l.com chips, 4l. whatevers for cheap in bulk etc.) and get bigger ROI faster. I have also tracked volume on chaomi for months and there have only been a small number of days where significant volume (over 100 sales in a day) have occurred since November.

It could all change tomorrow or whenever and the big investors jump back in and prices go back somewhere close to old highs in the coming months. However, I would not want to be a big 4l.com chip holder right now.

Each to their own!

 

[Keith DeBoer]

My stock market theory: If the Chinese stock mkt runs opposite to domain prices then a short against the Chinese stock market should run parallel to the CHIP mkt. To illustrate this here are the two charts......... notice the similar shapes in the charts of the 4L.com CHIP prices and a double short Chinese stock market ETF. Both charts show the period from May 2015 to the present. They are not the same but there is a similarity to my eye. What do you think?

 

[wwwweb]

The letters L N R Q P have fallen out of favor, all those domains contain those letters oddly enough

 

[wwwweb]

I don't think that the chinese market will crash soon. Also not sure what kind of bubble it is. I wouldn't define it as a bubble though. Here, we are talking about growing demand, but growing supply as well. Still many investors out there and are eager to flip more. Honestly, I am not expecting a crash.

The Chinese are about % return on capital, for the longest time we saw the 4L.com chips trading in the $2000-$2500 range, there can be no return on capital unless someone is willing to pay over $2500 for those names.

If you talk to any end user who sat with such chips in their portfolio for the past decade the sell thru rate on so called chips is like 1% a year on a portfolio basis to end users who on average were probably in the $1-10K range.

So unless these holders of Chips can get something going in the upward direction, chances are if they are in the money, they are looking to take some profit, and chase something with a bit more upside, that is why there has been such volume movement in 5L.com.

Nobody really understands what is going on here, there are various reasons, various expectations, at the end of the day, do not be foolish, and think the Chinese will come save the day, they are looking to profit just like you, only thing is they are more willing to do so at your expense, not that of their own.

 

[Domain Shane]

Transition of money into the next push. If you know where the money is going to flow there is still great money to be made. Yes, people are booking profits. Crash no, lower prices and soft market? Absolutely. You can watch the movement in and out if you have data. Western CHiP LLLL.com are going to do dramatically better than the Chinese letters as predicted by many. Also you can see a selling of the higher priced stuff to get into the better ROI names. $1500 is still a great price to sell those terrible Western letters. Anyone who was buying LLLL.com with Qs for over $2,000 was gambling.

@Prometheus You still have those ABBC WeChip 4L.cos in your sig?

 

[DomainVP]

All of this fluff is bananas.

The prices are following a similar BTC 'crash' that started in December.

and steadily dropping, as predicted.

Yes, domains are different from Bitcoin in that on their own each one has different metrics that can make them more or less valuable... but this floor price will continue be deflated until all 4L has the same floor.

Expect the prices to continue downward. Sorry to those that spent $2k on a gibberish 4L because it had 'pinyin' letters, but you were warned long ago.

I would not be shocked if these found an $800 - $900 floor, and all 4L's ended up being this price at some point this year.

 

[DnEbook]

It is panic now in China. Every domainer is getting back his money by selling domains. The different banker of 4L,5L.com/cn, 5N,6N,7N.com/cn is arguing and fighting each other. Many reasons:1). huge volume of 5L.com/7N.com with less end-users and the renewal fee is unbelievable and realized; 2). the new extention of wang(similar to net) is blooming and welcome in China, 3).the captial is losing to the marketing of stock and housing;4). the economic surrounding is so bad.

you wrote these exact words in another news thread, agenda?

 

[ninjadomain]

Word is the BIG investors are creating panic to collect more domains and raise the price even more next month.

 

[abcproductions]

The goal is to have as many as possible and to sell only a few occasionally for a really high price.

I can confirm this strategy works. I own thousands of LLLL.com and have for many years. The last time I sold one for less than $3500 was more than three years ago. End-user demand is up, end-user prices are up and end-user sales are up.

 

[4pm]

I don't think Chinese are loosing money.. They are smart people, they know what they are doing.

i also heard they are superbeings who buy only winning lottery tickets...

There are 23 million domains and 3.4 billion value on Chaomi displayed. I don't think this money can be wiped out easily.

Microsoft has 7.9B outstanding shares
every $1 dip wipes out $7.9B in market value in no time
52 weeks range $40-$56 = $126B change in market cap
and thats only 1 company
compare to $3.4B - peanuts. can be wiped out overnight
and the story wont even be picked up by WSJ...

lets be honest - its a gamble. there's no any fundamentals or book value in "chips".
end user interest is so rare and unpredictable for a random "xzqj" or "51983" that it can hardly justify regfee valuation if at all...
4Ls can be equally easily at $5K or at $100 in a matter of months depending on crowd sentiment
cant happen? ...flowers.mobi was valued at $200,000 not long ago, how much would you pay today?

 

[frank-germany]

When you buy a stock
You can only hope to get your money back soon

When you buy a short .com
There is no way to lose money
If you just don't sell with a loss

 

[UXela]

I say keep the panic going.
I like to buy low. :D

 

[tiawalling]

Bubbles will burst anyway. Some creates the bubble and the rest marvels and chases after it.
Follow your heart, not the bubble.

 

[Domain Shane]

All of this fluff is bananas.

The prices are following a similar BTC 'crash' that started in December.

and steadily dropping, as predicted.

Yes, domains are different from Bitcoin in that on their own each one has different metrics that can make them more or less valuable... but this floor price will continue be deflated until all 4L has the same floor.

Expect the prices to continue downward. Sorry to those that spent $2k on a gibberish 4L because it had 'pinyin' letters, but you were warned long ago.

I would not be shocked if these found an $800 - $900 floor, and all 4L's ended up being this price at some point this year.

You had me util "all 4Ls have the same floor". Now you're just making stuff up

 

[ksusha64]

Guys stop with this panic. Some names are higher than before. You need to check all categories.

 

[rpanella]

rndm.com just sold for $2995+, didn't get to see the last 2 mins.

Are you sure? LLLLSales.com shows the sale at $2075.

Actual ending price appears to be $3000 and the site has been updated to reflect that. It was double posted with an earlier price before the auction was extended.

 

[Domainzy]

Transition of money into the next push. If you know where the money is going to flow there is still great money to be made.

100% Correct! Right now we are seeing the transition of Chinese money into the next push!

I try to connect with as many influential Chinese investors on social media as I can. These investors have massive budgets and they never follow trends, they set them. They also have a massive following on social media and right now all the buzz is about 'Ethereum' and a few other blockchain investments. Once the price plateaus they transition money into the next...

Its important to note that these market movers are smart and do invest in good investments, but they just have such a massive following that prices tend to spike. These market movers are not still 'playing' in the LLLL.com game, sure some of their follows are! But market movers don't 'speculate', and investing in 4L chips at current prices is not an investment, it's speculation.

 

[martworld]

you wrote these exact words in another news thread, agenda?

Yes, its his agenda to create panic.

 

[Nem0]

Get a room.

 

[ninjadomain]

Markets all in the RED (positive).

 

[yogiDomain]

Well these are the auctions results yesterday at 4.cn for the so called "CHIPS" .

xnmq.com - 1573 USD
zlhq.com - 1542 USD
qfnq.com - 1631 USD

So has the bubble burst or Am I totally wrong?

Welcome your views on this.

The chinese market is now starting to mature and they are able understand between whats good domain and whats just average.

IMO the average domains are loosing its value and good one are going up.

Thats just MO

Your post might actually create a bit panic and you might see some LLLL.com chips auction coming soon

 

[Prometheus]

I don't think that the chinese market will crash soon. Also not sure what kind of bubble it is. I wouldn't define it as a bubble though. Here, we are talking about growing demand, but growing supply as well. Still many investors out there and are eager to flip more. Honestly, I am not expecting a crash. Maybe it's time to invest...