bgmv said:
My dilligence is done before hand but sometimes you come across a domain that you think is perfect for an enduser and theres only 1 potential user for the domain - what happens when they never reply? You are stuck with a $7.50 sunk cost, its pretty much worthless if theres only one person that would/could use that domain. Dynadot was the only registrar out there that allowed you to start out with $100 and reg 10 names then delete 9 and do it all over again for $1.80. It increases your chances you are recycling your money.
That's why you shouldn't register (or drop-catch) domains for $7.50 that you wouldn't be able to flip for $7.50 on NamePros based on Google search volume, CPC, brevity, and liquidity. ICANN's restriction forces you to impose these new parameters of selectivity on your domaining patterns, and this coercive innovation might be tough to swallow, but if by this point you haven't fallen in love with the challenge of tweezing out 1-2 worthwhile domains from tens of thousands of possibilities at a time, you should pull yourself onshore today -- away from the domaining rapids -- and go find a "real job".
I can understand that a speculative brandable domain might be worth $7.50 just because many other websites coincidentally brand themselves using the precise keywords contained in that domain, and NOT because the domain corresponds to a popular concept that would lend itself to NP liquidity. Fine. But if you've seasoned in the art of end-user sales, you should be able to predict accurate answers to the following two questions for every possible end-user that domain might interest:
1. What is the probability that pitching this domain to that end-user (based on relevance of name to end-user, strength of end-user's Internet presence, etc.) would result in an end-user sale? Let's call this figure B(i).
2. If this end-user were to purchase this domain, how much would they buy it for? Let's call this figure M(i).
Then, if your total number of end-user prospects equals N, you should perform the following mathematical calculation to determine how much money you could get away with spending on a given name yet be slated to break even on it (we'll call this amount T):
T = sigma[i = 1 .. N](B(i) * M(i))
Let's illustrate this calculation with an example. Say you're eyeing a domain, KoolDude.com, for which you've found the following end-user prospects:
1. KoolDude.net: Professionally developed Internet marketing site, strong Internet presence, been around since '96, would likely appreciate the value of the Internet real estate you're offering. You approximate they would fork out $500 with 35% probability of you pitched KoolDude.com correctly.
2. Kool-Dude.com: It's a parked page. Probably either belongs to a domainer or is being held by KoolDude.net to secure their brand. The probability these this candidate would want to purchase your domain virtually nil, say 3%, and would not likely pay more than $100 even if they did take interest.
3. KoolDudeInc.org: It's a tiny art school named "Kool Dude" based in rural Pennsylvania. Your domain is incredibly relevant to this school as they brand themselves "Kool Dude", but their site looks as if it's designed by a 3-year-old. You estimate they'd dish out $150 with 25% probability.
4. Kool.com: A massive gaming site which showcases a weekly comic called the "Kool Dude" strip. If they did agree to purchase your domain they could clearly afford to pay four-figures for it, but the chances your pitch would arrive in the hands of the right decision maker are slim, and to as a further discouraging factor, your domain is of ancillary importance to the site as a whole. You fix your M(i) at $1800 and B(i) at 5% for this candidate.
So, the amount you should spend attempting to attain KoolDude.com to break even on your investment is:
T = 0.35 * $500 + 0.03 * $100 + 0.25 * $150 + 0.05 * $1800
= $175 + $3 + $37.50 + $90
= $305.50
So, if you bid up to $305.50 on NameJet, you are slated to break even on your investment.
But of course, you don't want to break even -- you want to make money! How much can you make? Well, that depends on how much time you've got to dedicate to scouring domains for high ROI candidates. For the sake of simplicity, let's say you set a goal to twice as money money as you spend. In such a case, you would perform the EXACT same calculation as above, except you'd divide T by 2 to get $152.75, and THAT becomes your NameJet bidding cap on KoolDude.com.
With tireless trial and error you'll eventually be predicting your B(i)'s and M(i)'s very accurately (over large samples, at least), and in spite of the tasting restriction you won't lose money on domains.
The model I have illustrated is a form of smart domaining. You're welcome to choose a different model, but my above depiction is the high-level technique I swear by. The AGP allowed you to get away with clawing in the dark, grabbing every little marble that "might" sell. If your method of domaining resembles this image even but slighty, then the AGP served a band-aid covering up deep flaws embedded within your domaining patterns. With the AGP peeled off your wall of options, domainers who have traditionally failed to make their picks selectively and thoughtfully will either fail or be forced to rethink their methods. All I can say is, it's about time.