sales Don't Shoot for the moon

[equity78]

Rob Monster of Epik recently started an interesting discussion over at NamePros about “shooting the moon” when selling your domains. Basically the premise was that you don’t know how much the buyer would be willing to pay, so you might as well ask for an astronomical number and see what happens.

After all, you can’t get a high price if you don’t ask… right? Plus you can always offer a lease as a cheaper alternative, or you can walk your price back down.

For 99.99% of you this is terrible advice. Why?

Read more at Namebio

 

[frank-germany]

in order to shoot to the moon
you need a rocket and a space ship

you don't want to use a wingsuit



you need to know your buyer
his needs
why he will gain
and how much
when he/she/they will own that name

you need to know the numbers better than them


only then quote an accordingly high number

and learn negotiation skills, first

 

[frank-germany]

please stop shooting to the moon!

here is what you have done to the moon already:


enough is enough!

https://www.shutterstock.com/video/clip-8624773-flying-over-moon-surface-view-spaceship-close

 

[Soofi]

This made my day @Michael

For most of you, if you shoot for the moon you’re going to end up missing and floating around in space until you suffocate.

 

[Recons.Com]

I had rather said that I will "shoot the moon" as well as I will note his advice.

here are some name reported on his own namebio.

commercialsearch.com 30,000 USD 2019-11-05 Sedo
gambling-law-us.com 57,000 USD 2019-11-04 GoDaddy
recipe4living.com 40,500 USD 2019-10-25 GoDaddy
blog-city.com 30,500 USD 2019-10-17 GoDaddy

if the above name cant fit on "shoot the moon" then I must say he should remove this sales as it may be fake.

there is nothing wrong here for asking price at what you want to sell

One guy won a lottery. He spent $100 and won 100 million! It is an amazing investment. Let's all go buy lottery tickets.

The GD .US sale might have been due to the website that was on it. The dash one might be too. The numbered one? Possible. Check it. And why you thought commercialsearch is a mediocre name??

 

[dirk]

One of the sanest articles on domaining I have read in ages. Thanks for sharing. Bookmarked for future reference!

 

[LarryDomain]

I think "Shoot the moon" is different for each person. My "Shoot the moon" is anything 100x for handeg and 10x for anything over $500, 5X for anything in the low thousands...etc

Any name you register has the ability to "Shoot the moon". So don't let anyone tell you to not shoot for the moon!

Since we talking about Shoot the moon! Does anyone know where to play Spades?? I miss playing on Yahoo!!

 

[Blitzpotz]

Domainers sell to flippers, flippers sell to endusers.

Another reason not even to try to watch the moon. Save the flippers!

 

[oldtimer]

The premise of Shooting The Moon is not based on the Quality of your domain, but rather on the fact that an End User that you don't know anything about might have fallen in love with the specific domain that you might have and that they want it at any cost. Although the chances of such scenario might increase if you have a premium domain name, but that might not necessarily be the main requirement since the most important factor is how suitable your domain is to the specific needs of an End User who thinks that your domain is what they have to have. It happens to all of us when something catches our eyes that we have to have and that we are willing to pay more to get it as the price might not be the most important factor for us in that case. Perhaps that's why some paintings sell for astronomical prices or that some people pay thousands of dollars more to see their favorite concerts or sports games.

The only way to know whether this method is going to work for you or not is to try it for a while provided that you can afford the wait, and remember you have to overcome three major obstacles to get to the Moon, first you have to get an offer on one of your names which doesn't happen that often for most domainers and then you have to gamble on whether the person who has made the offer has sat their heart on having the specific domain that you have and that they can't do without it. You also have to gamble on whether the buyer who has fallen in love with your domain has a lot of money to spare. If all the stars line up correctly you might be able to get to the Moon after all, but you might want to have another strategy in place in case if they don't.

PS: The more specific the domain is that you have gotten an offer for perhaps it is better justified to Shoot The Moon for it.

IMO

 

[bmugford]

I agree with Michael's take on this. It is very similar to mine in the shoot for the moon thread.

Buy, sell, rinse, repeat is the model that works for many profitable domain investors.

The key here is a model needs to be repeatable. Outliers are not repeatable.

Brad

 

[oldtimer]

Best to try all different kinds of strategies to see which one works for you better.

IMO

 

[Blitzpotz]

It is so silent here. Everybody waiting for a statement by Rob Monster?

However, if I remember correctly the other thread ended similar to the message of the article here which is another Best-of-Namepros.
It resulted like You need a great domain name to come anyhow near the moon, but if you are an unknown domainer you probably will never shoot it.
That´s why I like the comparison to Mr. Mann´s sales, because let´s face it: Those reports about him or Mr. Schwartz or the Costello Brothers or other VIPs are tempting and able to create too high expectations.

The key here is a model needs to be repeatable.

Great conclusion which reads so easy but isn´t. Personally I´d be happy to identify those never selling domains much earlier as I do now to remove ballast from my (pseudo) moon rocket park. I know 80% or more of my names will never sell - but which ones?

 

[Soofi]

Everybody waiting for a statement by Rob Monster?

you can read mind's

 

[frank-germany]

It is so silent here. Everybody waiting for a statement by Rob Monster?

no

 

[Blitzpotz]

no

And another post added with two letters.

But wait, I feel he is nearby.

 

[Michael]

I think "Shoot the moon" is different for each person. My "Shoot the moon" is anything 100x for handeg and 10x for anything over $500, 5X for anything in the low thousands...etc

This. Exactly this. We've been working on an AI appraiser that might never see the light of day. But the idea is to only look at wholesale sales and come up with a wholesale valuation, and then use that to calculate a retail range. You've closely described my formula for converting wholesale to retail, although it needs to be an equation and not stepped. But the basic idea is the same, the higher the wholesale value the lower the multiple, with a very high multiple at the low end of the spectrum.

Your pricing model is not a moonshot at all, it's perfectly practical and realistic. A moonshot is a price that has an extremely low probability of being accepted, not about the multiple. Like replying with "similar names routinely sell for six figures" for completely average or even low-quality names. Great way to kill every inquiry instantly. Asking $1-2k on a hand reg is not a moonshot, even though it is a 100x+ return.

The main point is that if you ask for extremely low-probability prices on every inquiry you're never going to make a sale, or if you do it will take a decade or more. That's just statistics. Most people will have given up by then. Just do it on a small percentage of your portfolio if anything. It's also not that easy to walk back a price from "six figures" to $5k either. The buyer won't take anything the seller says seriously at that point, and it makes the seller look inept and weak. So it isn't really the case that the seller can just come down significantly without any harm done, so might as well start off crazy and hope to get lucky.

You must be making sales given your sensible approach to pricing and the quality of names in your signature. It's immediately clear that you understand this business better than most.

I agree with Michael's take on this. It is very similar to mine in the shoot for the moon thread.

Buy, sell, rinse, repeat is the model that works for many profitable domain investors.

The key here is a model needs to be repeatable. Outliers are not repeatable.

Brad

You are exactly the type of investor that people should be looking up to and trying to replicate, not the people who got in extremely early and are playing a different game entirely. I would imagine many of my thoughts and beliefs about this industry where influenced by watching you do your thing over the years.

 

[biggie]

You are exactly the type of investor that people should be looking up to and trying to replicate, not the people who got in extremely early and are playing a different game entirely.

I'll co-sign that!

imo...

 

[Soofi]

I'll co-sign that!

imo...

Need another one?

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Thank you for the outstanding analysis and article @Michael. By taking the time to do this you will no doubt make a positive difference to countless domain investors who take your message to heart and respond accordingly. Sincerely thank you, both for this article and the outstanding NameBio.

Also very interested to hear of your future AI project related to wholesale and retail pricing.

Thanks again,

Bob

 

[Ostrados]

As stated in the article it is numbers game, it will take 1 lifetime to shoot for the moon on one "subpar" domain if you own less than 500 domains!

Statistics is very simple concept
period

 

[Nikul Sanghvi]

But the idea is to only look at wholesale sales and come up with a wholesale valuation, and then use that to calculate a retail range. You've closely described my formula for converting wholesale to retail, although it needs to be an equation and not stepped.

Michael - I loved this article, so first of all, thank you for writing it...

I run a very similar stepped model. The multiples need some revision but it's roughly like this: https://twitter.com/hypernames/status/1122780585125130245

I think it would be interesting to see your equation run in the opposite direction, using a high/medium-probability retail value to determine a wholesale price range. Then the purchase becomes the theoretical point at which the money is made.

If investors don't use enduser prices to determine wholesale values, a few things could happen:

• Higher chance to overpay for the acquisition at wholesale = poor deployment of capital
• Once an investor has overpaid at auction/wholesale, a static multiple (like 10x/100x) forces a low-probability retail price (moonshots) and a weaker sell-through rate
• If end-user prices are static, but domains are getting more expensive on aftermarket, margins will become tiny.
• If we ignore end-user prices and trade on wholesale only, domains will end up getting used as a store of value. Then we get stuck in an asset bubble, passing money around to each other.