So first he said it:
I hope everyone knows that 40% of the bitcoins are held in 1000 wallets only.
and then I responded:
<<I hope everyone knows that 40% of the bitcoins are held in 1000 wallets only.>>
That's something that has been repeated in different ways, so many times that people assume it is true.
There is no way to know whether a given bitcoin holder has multiple wallets. So, looking at ten different wallets that contain small amounts of bitcoin one might assume that each one of these wallets falls into the "small fry - don't have much bitcoin category" when in reality, combined, they might fit into the category of one who has a good amount of bitcoin.
As far as large holders of anything - this may always affect markets, but only temporarily. Carl Icahn dumped so many shares of NFLX at once in June 2015, when he decided to sell everything he had, that the stock, which was just getting over 700, crashed as much as 80 points in an instant, to settle down about 50, around 650.
Today NFLX is at an adjusted post-split 1319, and Icahn never bought back in either.
The number of BTC users is expected to reach 200 million by 2024
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/exponential-growth-number-bitcoin-users-reach-200-million-2024/
Then urlurl said it:
the majority of the coins are held by a very small group just waiting to sell... i would too, lol
And third after urlurl, SIrDrago repeated it:
Less than a 1000 people own 40% percent of Bitcoin.
SOURCE
So you may see how these things go, one person reads something that isn’t even verifiable, and repeats it, and on and on, until at some point the person saying it doesn’t even know where he heard it and is just repeating what he heard.
But the fact remains that we can’t know about anonymous wallets that might belong to the same person, so we cannot say definitively that this is so.
In other words, we see ten wallets with just one coin in them, and toss that into the bin of "ten poor folks" when, if in reality those ten wallets belong to one person, it actually means "one rich guy." We just can't know.
And then SirDrago has been prognosticating doom for bitcoin for three days now, that the coming of futures/options trading would destroy it, so he posts that he sold out half on November 28th, in fear of a crash, but THAT crash hasn’t happened, so now he seems to be saying that the short interest is going to somehow degrade BTC’s price:
They'll place "shorts" on it and make bank on the way down.
Rinse and repeat.
BUT:
And if you want to talk about shorting - in the history of stocks there has never been a case where shorting in and of itself led to a stock’s long term decline. Sure, sometimes when things are dicey news that some big player entered a short position might short term rattle the market but over all, over time, a stock tends to go wherever it would have gone anyway, with or without a large short interest.
So anyway, we all have
opinions, and have all posted one way or another, about what we THINK will happen, but which of us has been right on the money such as with my exact prediction here:
I expect btc to go up over all over time long term including from here but there will be intermediate ups and down. I had a vision that it would reach 11,500 then drop back to 9500 and eventually go to 13,000. We shall see. I am not selling, been accumulating and holding since 2013, and I will accumulate more btc even at these levels..
and afterwards?
(such as when I posted to forget about the experts that SirDrago was giving such a wide berth to, that there would NOT be a crash when mainstream BTC futures trading started:
It’s naive to assume that anything works out the way experts predict. Watch and see.
)
Now, I don’t know anything more than anyone else here, but so far, I’ve been right, and my recommendation, is to hold what BTC you have, or get some soon before it flies up further.
Frankly, it doesn't matter to me whether people here buy into BTC or not, but as long as people are coming on here and saying negative things about BTC, I will point out that among them, I'm the one whose predictions have been correct, so far, and I predict
good things for BTC in 2018.