I suggest you reread
@xynames post.
First of all the response that you quote was not to
@xynames post but to
your post arguing that a business owner looking for a domain name would go to Whois, see if the expiry was more than a year or less than a month, if it was not in that interval move on assuming name not actively for sale. I don't buy your reasoning at all. Surely you just enter the name in browser and see what lander says?
I had read
@xynames post carefully, but I did reread it again now just to be sure
I do value his opinion as a pro and frequent contributor and for his long term and legal/business experience as I understand it. But that does not mean I accept everything anyone says! It's just how I am! But let me respond now to everything in the post you asked me to reread.
By the way, pre-paying one year renewals a few months ahead (for your domains that are expiring, catching them up to a few months before expiration versus just on or before the exact month they are due to expire) is one thing, I do that regularly myself
Agree completely (if you leave too late life might intervene or in any case fast transfer will cease and it is a slight pain reactivating).
but pre-paying six or more years out (which is what OP claims he just did) for every single domain you own, especially if you own many, is asinine
My emphasis added as the OP did not say that. He said that he renewed to 2025 his .live domains, which he later clarified to mean his adult .live domains at least. He never said all of the domains in his portfolio. So I agree that would not be smart, but that is not what the post said. So kind of agree with sentiment but it was based on an incorrect premise.
is asinine, UNLESS you plan to sell none or close to none (in which case you shouldn't renew them, at all!).
I divided these to respond, but of course they were intended as one statement so I overlapped. I agree that you should NOT renew names that you think will probably never sell, and have said that even in this thread. But the typical domain name is not just will sell // will never sell. Sell through rates vary, for all domains for sale it is probably of order of 1% for .com (and lower for new gTLDs in general). So
probability clearly says that any particular domain name is unlikely to sell in the next year. Just probabilistically the odds are you will need to renew it. So the question is do it now or do it few months before. There I think it is very much like the case fixed vs variable mortgage rates. I would not renew in advance if I thought rates were likely to be lower at some point in future. But let's look at .live since that is what the OP stated. It is a Donuts name, most of which, after being fixed for a couple of years on rates, are going up 6 to 9% (I don't off hand know the exact value for .live, since I own 0 personally did not research it). Right now at West I can add 5 year of .live renewal for $30.07, or $6.01 per year. I don't know of any lower renewal rate in past (well recent past). So how is it 'asinine' to lock into that rate for 5 years, since for a typical domain name the odds are that any particular domain name sells in 5 years is low (depending on your throughput ratio from less than 5% to maybe 20%).
Every domain that you sell with YEARS left on its expiration is money out of your pocket, dropped into the buyer's pocket. The more you sell of these domains that you prepaid years out, the more you lose.
I agree that this is a defendable viewpoint as we have discussed before. I personally find it does matter, but accept I might be wrong. But my key point is the one above:
based on probability most names don't sell in a year. If you have done an analysis and are convinced of worth of domain name, the probabilistic argument is, in my opinion, in favour of locking in good renewal rates when they are available.
I think the real question is are .live domains worth holding. As I have said, personally I own none. They have sold for good amounts in past, but I believe the 7 sales over $15,000 are all registry. All of sales in last year are small (but most of the names are pretty unimpressive too). The registration growth is steady and it is doing better than most ngTLDs in actual end use (although all tiny compared to .com).
Sorry to write so much, but wanted to show I had read that post carefully, and did so again
, and to respond to it in detail since
@MapleDots asked. I value all opinions (OK almost all) expressed here, but I never simply accept based on who that person is.
Anyway this is my thinking. My probability stats arguments convince me that if you have a better rate now than you are likely to get in future, why not renew a few years, but only if the word is worthwhile. No one needs to accept anything I say!
Bob
PS BTW I really like that the latter part of this thread is on the topic of renew or not. Just because I don't reach same conclusion,
@MapleDots and
@xynames as you do on this topic, huge respect for the success you both have in the business, your active engaged nature on NPs, and the fact that you have based your arguments here on principles and not on personalities. Have a nice day!
GoRaptors!