Google Translation:
It is the most charismatic person in the Internet age. They create and reconstruct the industrial rules through the value of conscience, reconstruct the business model, restart the social change and accomplish the great times together. June 10, the founder of the annual opening of the forum is held in a grand.
In the June 10 opening of the forum, the storm magic mirror CEO Huang Xiaojie published the theme of "the next ten years VR and AR how to change our lives," the speech, in-depth discussion of the VR and AR past lives, analysis of Alibaba and Facebook into the VR field and predicted the two trends in 2017. The following is the content of fine series:
What is VR?
VR is a computer to create a virtual world, let us believe it. Video in an American old lady playing PSVR on the game when the reaction is very exaggerated. We can imagine, if it is on television to see such a video actually do not have such a reaction. But after wearing VR equipment, the real sense will make your physical and psychological have a major change, will make you believe it is true.
In fact, the virtual reality is not because it is today called the so-called high-tech people chase, it is the ancient man has been pursuing the direction. "Human history" which mentioned the biggest difference between humans and animals is that people will tell the story, will do virtualization. Thousands of years ago humans began to tell stories, while listening to the story, although the body is still in the real world, but the spirit has come to the story of the virtual world. In the past, we can only come through the imagination to reach the story behind the text. Later, with television and movies, increased visual and auditory, let us better understand what the story is in the end. With VR, we can experience the world on an immersive experience. So from this point of view, VR is the inevitable trend of human social development, that is, an inevitable trend of virtualization.
The future of VR technology will move towards two angles to develop
Angle one: clarity continues to improve.
VR equipment is not clear, grain is very strong, and now a lot of VR equipment using 1K screen is also very unclear. We use the clarity index to assess the clarity of the screen, divided into ten levels. A level of clarity like a child playing Super Mario has a lot of box composition, ten like we look at the Apple mobile phone screen (retina screen). PSVR HTC and other screens are in the fourth and fifth level, and the magic mirror recently released a new product Matrix3K screen to the seventh level. The next 3 to 5 years there will be 8K screen, 10 years later may be developed to 10K or even 16K screen, to that time in the human body to see the clarity of the VR, just like us today through the naked eye to see the Apple screen (retina screen) is The same, so the VR is a trend is getting higher and higher.
Angle two: the weight is getting lighter.
Now, most of the VR equipment are relatively heavy, their weight is generally 400 to 600 grams. We have released some time ago Matrix has reduced the weight to 230 grams, is the world's lightest head. The next three to five years of the general trend is that may be from scratch to become a pair of glasses, the weight of 100 grams or less, and then may become a contact lens. Last year, Samsung has begun to apply for a patent, the future of this display device integrated into the chip inside, into a very thin contact lenses.
And then after the combination of the brain and the computer, to the last person does not need to stimulate the external visual and auditory, but directly stimulate the nerve signal, people think it is true, and then to the status of the Matrix.
Why does AR + VR represent the future?
First of all we look at how the mobile Internet is to replace the PC Internet, mobile Internet, the two core features:
Characteristic one, mobility. Anytime, anywhere access to information, anytime, anywhere access to information, anytime, anywhere shopping.
Second, it provides an interactive method that is more in line with human instincts. We all know in the past when the computer, we need to rely on the mouse with the keyboard, is the need to learn. And in the mobile Internet through the touch screen way, whether it is three-year-old child, or on the old age, who can be very convenient to use intelligent devices, do not need to learn the process.
So the two core features to mobile Internet subversion of the PC Internet.
If there is a so-called next-generation Internet, I think it must have three features:
Features 1, mobility, anytime, anywhere can be used.
Characteristic two, interactive revolution. In addition to the past through the touch, the future can also voice, gestures, the body, with more instinctive way to do the interaction.
Features three, larger screen. The development of the past screen, whether it is TV, movies or computer screen, the beginning of the time are very small, but with the passage of time, the screen is getting bigger and bigger.
Although the phone is small, but it has a mobility. And the trend of mobile phone screen is getting bigger and bigger. If you can let people carry a TV screen as big as the screen, even as large as the cinema screen, human beings must be hope. Only in the past such equipment is too heavy, very easy to carry.
If the future through the AR and VR technology directly to the image in your retina inside, it means that your eyes is a huge screen. At that time, it achieved the perfect combination of mobility and huge screen, so I believe that with the mobility, interactive revolution and the larger screen of these three features, the only choice is only smart glasses. Behind the smart glasses is VR + AR.
VR + AR unlimited power
I believe VR + AR will be the next opportunity for the next BAT
AR + electricity business. Electric business greatly improved the past shopping efficiency.The future, if we wear a pair of AR glasses, you can see any object anytime, anywhere, we can know what brand it is, what price, what to buy links, one-click orders. It will not only be a high degree of efficiency, which is the latest reason for Alibaba investment MagicLeap. If Ali does not know the entrance, it may be subversive.
VR + electricity business. Some time ago Alibaba launched a system called Buy +. Hope that users at home, even in pajamas, you can also directly in the VR world to see themselves wearing a variety of beautiful clothes effect.
AR + social. WeChat market value has more than a hundred billion dollars, the future if there is AR glasses, we see any one person, you can directly know your name, your background, your position, your past credit, which will completely change Our future social.
AR + search. Our past search mainly relies on text search, it is the need for human to do abstract, into a text, and then enter the information to show the process. There are two more important search methods in the future: way one: like the newsletter to do the voice of the search. Way two: visual search. (You see any object that it can directly display the relevant information).
VR + education. VR technology can help students to understand those very complex, more abstract concepts, through visual methods to visually show to students.
AR / VR + travel. With AR and VR technology, you can completely restore the cultural history of a scenic area.
VR + medical: many medical school students in the past, may learn a lot of knowledge, but no chance to practice. But with the VR and AR, they can directly in the virtual world inside the virtual surgery directly.
VR + social: I think the virtual social VR is the biggest subversive opportunity. This is why why Facebook spent $ 2 billion to invest in VR.
VR technology has been basically mature, it only need to wait for the industry chain, equipment, and the content is enough mature. So I think within five years belong to VR, but five to ten years of opportunity may belong to AR. Because it uses it longer, it uses more scenes. One day the use of wear time may be more than eight hours, so its business value is greater.
But if thirty years later, fifty years later. When the human body really realized the man-machine combination, I believe the future may still be more valuable VR. Because at that time, 80% of human work will be replaced.
Human beings in real life, although the food and clothing worry, but may not have a sense of accomplishment, human needs in the virtual world inside a sense of accomplishment, so this may be the future of the hacker empire, there are many large domestic and foreign companies have begun to invest in this area.
2016VR industry 冰火两重天
2016 VR in the first half of the day in transit, in the end to the second half, the industry began to turn cold, the so-called bubble overwhelming.
analyze the core behind the reasons: any computer platform just started when there is a cycle, this cycle is the hardware + content, when the hardware + content is good enough time to conquer the user, the user more and more , It can contribute to income, income will be enough to attract more developers, developers will develop better hardware and better content, the loop began to start.
But last year in this loop inside, hardware and content experience is not good enough, did not really conquer the user, so this loop has not been activated.
hat is to say what we are saying today. VR technology has successfully conquered innovators and early adopters. But the early public put forward more requirements, including this product is not practical, is not mature enough, there is no supporting services, the price is not low enough. This time, we found that VR also need to do a lot of transformation is possible across the gap.
I believe that by the end of 2016, Google and Microsoft's involvement is actually at the operating system level has begun to develop standards for the VR. Google has been in the new operating system inside all the Android phones to support the future VR. Microsoft is also the bottom of the system plus a layer, the future we use office, wearing a helmet after a direct view of a virtual data, virtual documents, it is completely three-dimensional.
So after having the intervention of the operating system, it will unify the standard and start really letting our hardware and content standards begin to drive the entire industry chain.
We think VR to conquer the early public, to make the hardware experience twice as good, double the price, rich content ten times. Of course, to solve a lot of problems, clear, thin, the content should be rich enough. With good products, good standards and good content, we believe that the next year, VR will usher in a new high-quality growth.
So my prediction for 2017:
First, the interaction to upgrade.
Second, the world will have 100 million support Daydream mobile phone sale,
Third, one machine sales reached 100 million units
Fourth, the Daydream game will flow more than a million dollars.
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