The LLL.com sales report & discussion thread

[italiandragon]

We need this one too guys

This guide will also help LLLL.com holders to understand more the value of their 4 letters .com based on how expensive the similar 3 letters .com are.

From:

http://3character.com/priceguide.html

Pricing Guide for 3-Letter (Composed Of Letters Only) Domains:

Current Observed Minimum Wholesale Price (regardless of letter combo) as of February 1, 2008:

3-Letter .com - $6700 (+ $300 since January 1, 2008 report)

But I consider their guide a bit old since they are not taking in consideration the emergenging countries that appreciate other letters and as we have run a poll here several times lately, the majority of people consider the letters U
and W to be Premium letters.

Let`s have a look at some recent LLL.com sales as reported from NameBio.com :


nak.com $27,135 2007-12-22 SEDO.com
nyz.com $10,605 2007-12-19 tdnam
utw.com $10,100 2007-12-10 SEDO.com
via.com $157,500 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
cgf.com $14,500 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
vkx.com $6,200 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
mje.com $10,734 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
okf.com $8,500 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
our.com $60,000 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
kxr.com $7,101 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
lhg.com $13,613 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
wae.com $10,099 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
hya.com $7,499 2007-12-06 SEDO.com
yrd.com $9,100 2007-12-05 SEDO.com
vfk.com $15,750 2007-11-29 AfterNic.com
qee.com $10,882 2007-11-27 SEDO.com

 

[Tim Schoon]

cfj.com 6,501 USD SEDO

name looked a little fishy, registrant changed a couple days before the auction started and pvt whois...

By the way, is it just me or are there more & more lowball spammers? I received 3 lowball emails for Pej this week, just got a 4th 'inquiry'. Is there something with the name or are you guys also getting more lowballers?

 

[betthelot]

name looked a little fishy, registrant changed a couple days before the auction started and pvt whois...

By the way, is it just me or are there more & more lowball spammers? I received 3 lowball emails for Pej this week, just got a 4th 'inquiry'. Is there something with the name or are you guys also getting more lowballers?

There has been an up tick of offers over the last 3 months but still way below the levels of late 2007 and early 2008. The 17,000 odd combinations must have been spammed at least 10 times each over the last 3 years, so it hard to see how this technique is successful
.

 

[tetrapak]

Nj:

Gmh $12,100

 

[sidekick_33]

Do you guys see a continued rise in prices for LLL.com's?

I think we can agree that prices are on the rise...

 

[tetrapak]

Sure, same as with premium llll.com's, it is very clear.

 

[ZOX]

Do you guys see a continued rise in prices for LLL.com's?

I think we can agree that prices are on the rise...

YAY!!! :tu:

 

[snoop]

Do you guys see a continued rise in prices for LLL.com's?

I think we can agree that prices are on the rise...

I would guess yes. Alot will depnd on the overall market. If the higher quality stuff goes up they'll likely rise with it, watch the parking situation like a hawk is my view, it drives most of the market. I do consider these names high risk though.

 

[betthelot]

I would guess yes. Alot will depnd on the overall market. If the higher quality stuff goes up they'll likely rise with it, watch the parking situation like a hawk is my view, it drives most of the market. I do consider these names high risk though.

These names have never been any good parked - Parked LLL.coms have always performed on the most part poorly, so I believe the parking returns has little impact on this sector.
There natural ROI is sales to global reach businesses having those initials. I can not see watching the parking situation will have any meaning.
I think they will ratchet up but the rate is very hard to judge. The main reason is that over a year ONLY about 250 of them become available at no or little reserve. Contrast to LLLL.coms and that can be per day and I note some Chinese auction sites such as ename.com have sold a few recently on their sales platform; what we would consider ugly names but went for around $4,000. Scarcity will be the driver in the future not parking, the rarer the more valuable they are perceived.

 

[snoop]

These names have never been any good parked - Parked LLL.coms have always performed on the most part poorly, so I believe the parking returns has little impact on this sector.
There natural ROI is sales to global reach businesses having those initials. I can not see watching the parking situation will have any meaning.
I think they will ratchet up but the rate is very hard to judge. The main reason is that over a year ONLY about 250 of them become available at no or little reserve. Contrast to LLLL.coms and that can be per day and I note some Chinese auction sites such as ename.com have sold a few recently on their sales platform; what we would consider ugly names but went for around $4,000. Scarcity will be the driver in the future not parking, the rarer the more valuable they are perceived.

Most of the money used to buy these names over time has come from parked domains, aside from the flippers who are fairly obviously transient holders. Do a scan and see who actually owns most of them outside of endusers, it is people wilth portfolios of parked domains.

It is a bit like like comparing the stock market and artwork and concluding the markets are not related because artwork doesn't pay regular income.

Also disagree about your comment that their natural ROI comes from enduser sales, even the top end names I think that is somewhat of a stretch, the bottom end names are collectors items purchased by domainers with some spare money rather than being valued by enduser potential, if the latter was true values would be nowhere near what they are today.

 

[betthelot]

Do a scan and see who actually owns most of them outside of endusers, it is people wilth portfolios of parked domains.

Without doing a scan, this must be true of all domains outside of endusers

Also disagree about your comment that their natural ROI comes from enduser sales, even the top end names I think that is somewhat of a stretch, the bottom end names are collectors items purchased by domainers with some spare money rather than being valued by enduser potential, if the latter was true values would be nowhere near what they are today.

I think the underlying value has to be from end users. The rest is a bit frothy and subject to bubbles. In my own experience endusers will pay much more than the re-seller market but the amount has been fairly consistent, rather than the 100% wholesale growth we saw in the 3-4 years before 2008.
You just have to look to see how many large businesses use LLL.coms to see they are valued. Chinese endusers will drive the underlying value in the next 5 years as they uptake the bottom end names 'as you call them', making them rarer. Once developed that locks them out of the domain market and as low as the rate of development is, its enough to slowly erode the available pool of about 5,000 undeveloped LLL.coms.

 

[snoop]

I think the underlying value has to be from end users. The rest is a bit frothy and subject to bubbles. In my own experience endusers will pay much more than the re-seller market but the amount has been fairly consistent, rather than the 100% wholesale growth we saw in the 3-4 years before 2008.

What do you mean by "underlying value"?, a name is worth what it is worth. If domainers will bid it up to 4k on a regular basis that is the value.

Regarding endusers these sales rarely happen for low quality 3 letter .com's. I think you are ignoring probability.

You just have to look to see how many large businesses use LLL.coms to see they are valued. Chinese endusers will drive the underlying value in the next 5 years as they uptake the bottom end names 'as you call them', making them rarer. Once developed that locks them out of the domain market and as low as the rate of development is, its enough to slowly erode the available pool of about 5,000 undeveloped LLL.coms.

No so keen on statements like "will", what you've said is at best a guess.

The reason why the are collectible though is because the top end names are often used by prestigious large companies. There isn't really enduser demand at the bottom end because companies generally don't have three letter names with uncommon letters, unless the three founders were Harry Zyrong, John Yollow and Peter Xenon (unlikely). It is a different sort of demand for those names. They have a degree of significance that makes them worth owning by domainers. I doubt those low quality combo's will be "eroded" by development, even in 100 years. People will continue to collect them though, and they'll go through the boom-bust cycle just like always.

 

[mibworld]

Yes, the names you listed are uncommon. But the three founders could be Xiao, Yu and Zhang. These are among the most common surnames in China.

There isn't really enduser demand at the bottom end because companies generally don't have three letter names with uncommon letters, unless the three founders were Harry Zyrong, John Yollow and Peter Xenon (unlikely). It is a different sort of demand for those names. They have a degree of significance that makes them worth owning by domainers. I doubt those low quality combo's will be "eroded" by development, even in 100 years. People will continue to collect them though, and they'll go through the boom-bust cycle just like always.

 

[betthelot]

What do you mean by "underlying value"?, a name is worth what it is worth. If domainers will bid it up to 4k on a regular basis that is the value.

I see domainers creating the boom and bust cycle where as the underlying value of what end users will pay is why these names are truly worth money. Factor in a 1-2% turnover rate to endusers gives a market value for the names which is more robust than domaining trends and values put on them.

The reason why the are collectible though is because the top end names are often used by prestigious large companies. There isn't really enduser demand at the bottom end because companies generally don't have three letter names with uncommon letters, unless the three founders were Harry Zyrong, John Yollow and Peter Xenon (unlikely).

But you are missing the fact there are hundreds of thousands with the names like Zhang Xu and Ye
It is the same sort of demand for these names but in a different territory. I think those low quality combo's will be "eroded" by development, because of the reason that in some languages they are premium letters and people will continue to collect them, all the while reducing the pool; significantly in my view within 10 years.

In conclusion the factor that will have most effect on these names is if the uptake from China will significantly increase the turnover of LLL.coms to endusers. Not parking revenues.

---------- Post added at 09:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:12 AM ----------

LMK.com $58,000 SEDO Let Me Know

'This marks a trend among media companies going for these text acronyms- there is a navigation sea change coming' Owen Frager

Another reason why the uptake by end users may start to increase and effect values

 

[betthelot]

OVI.com

Nokia launches a developers site for iphone apps. They use URL OVI.com for no decipherable reason to me, except its short and pronounceable.

 

[snoop]

Yes, the names you listed are uncommon. But the three founders could be Xiao, Yu and Zhang. These are among the most common surnames in China.

If that is true why does typing "yzx" into google mainly yield results relating to product codes and domain registrations?

---------- Post added at 02:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:23 PM ----------

I see domainers creating the boom and bust cycle where as the underlying value of what end users will pay is why these names are truly worth money. Factor in a 1-2% turnover rate to endusers gives a market value for the names which is more robust than domaining trends and values put on them.

1-2% turnover rate to enduser would be somewhat optimistic for a high quality LLL.com or keyword name not a low quality one. Personally I don't think I have ever really had a genuine enduser enquiry on a low quality LLL.com apart from $100 offers.

But you are missing the fact there are hundreds of thousands with the names like Zhang Xu and Ye

So where are the sales of low quality LLL.com's to endusers?

 

[betthelot]

If that is true why does typing "yzx" into google mainly yield results relating to product codes and domain registrations?

go to g.cn the chinese google search engine and you get plenty of results including www.yxz.com.cn well established business supplying pianos.
This market is a growing substantially enough to have a positive up take of the low end names; I also noted some domainers are selling those low end names on Chinese auction sites and I would expect more of that in the coming years. China's internet is at about 15% penetration at what it is expected to be in 10 years

1-2% turnover rate to enduser would be somewhat optimistic for a high quality LLL.com or keyword name not a low quality one. Personally I don't think I have ever really had a genuine enduser enquiry on a low quality LLL.com apart from $100 offers.

This is from my own experience - mainly eastern European business 'Z' is a very good letter in Czech.

So where are the sales of low quality LLL.com's to endusers?

As with many domain sales they dont become public.
I except its not great numbers but it has the potential to increase significantly as China and other markets mature to a level similar to the US and western europe. Thats why I think this will have a greater effect on LLL.coms in the coming years rather than parking revenues.

 

[snoop]

As with many domain sales they dont become public.

That sounds like something that would be argued in the .tv forum. If there was a good % of enduser sales they would be showing up in the sales reports, just like any other type of domain. Your 1%-2% per year equates to 50-100 sales annually, We'd at least be seeing a dozen or two low quality names selling to endusers in the figures if that were the case.

I except its not great numbers

Well we agree on something then.

 

[betthelot]

That sounds like something that would be argued in the .tv forum. If there was a good % of enduser sales they would be showing up in the sales reports, just like any other type of domain. Your 1%-2% per year equates to 50-100 sales annually, We'd at least be seeing a dozen or two low quality names selling to endusers in the figures if that were the case..

It was from my own experience and only one has been reported as that was sold through Afternic. The others where direct to Chinese or others including cash sales.

Well we agree on something then.

What that its end user sales not parking revenues that will decide future trends. We nearly had a constructive conversation without it descending into a yah boo point scoring exercise but you just could not help your self. We will leave it there and you win.

 

[mibworld]

If WHAT is true? The only affirmation in my sentence is that Xiao, Yu and Zhang are common chinese surnames, and that IS certainly true. You can check it here. There are 16 million google results for Xiao, 124 million for Yu and 39 million for Zhang. There are many other popular chinese surnames starting with q,x,y,z. So, THAT (my affirmation) is true.

If that is true why does typing "yzx" into google mainly yield results relating to product codes and domain registrations?

---------- Post added at 02:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:23 PM ----------



1-2% turnover rate to enduser would be somewhat optimistic for a high quality LLL.com or keyword name not a low quality one. Personally I don't think I have ever really had a genuine enduser enquiry on a low quality LLL.com apart from $100 offers.



So where are the sales of low quality LLL.com's to endusers?

 

[betthelot]

If WHAT is true? The only affirmation in my sentence is that Xiao, Yu and Zhang are common chinese surnames, and that IS certainly true. You can check it here. There are 16 million google results for Xiao, 124 million for Yu and 39 million for Zhang. There are many other popular chinese surnames starting with q,x,y,z. So, THAT (my affirmation) is true.

That is his skill - taking a sentence and twisting it - or taking part of a sentence so he can refuted it out of context. And his favourite is to make a statement which you then present reasons against it, for him to ignore the original argument and go on some pointless scoring exercise on some semantics. All to give an air of authority which is dissolving away as the market recovers.:lol:

 

[snoop]

If WHAT is true? The only affirmation in my sentence is that Xiao, Yu and Zhang are common chinese surnames, and that IS certainly true. You can check it here. There are 16 million google results for Xiao, 124 million for Yu and 39 million for Zhang. There are many other popular chinese surnames starting with q,x,y,z. So, THAT (my affirmation) is true.

You said,

"Yes, the names you listed are uncommon. But the three founders could be Xiao, Yu and Zhang. These are among the most common surnames in China."

Where are all these companies with founders like that who are they using the acronymn as their corporate identity. Are you saying there is good enduser demand for names like yzx.com or are you saying something else?

---------- Post added at 05:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:47 PM ----------

All to give an air of authority which is dissolving away as the market recovers.:lol:

I think the main thing that is dissolving is the quality of argument.

Let's face it I predicted doom for this market when it was at its peak. You argued with me all the way to the bottom as the market declined 60%.

Then when I stated I thought the market had bottomed out around $3000-$3500 you still kept pretending I was somehow wrong on this market.

It seems apparent from alot of your comments in recent months (pretending I am still negative on the market which I am not) that you think people will always be positive or always be negative on things and that does change as prices change. Some also seem to think anyone who disagrees with claims that don't really pass muster (like low quality LLL.com's having good enduser demand) is somehow negative on a segment.

I was positive on these names for many years and decide to sell when prices got to irrational levels in 2008. I'm positive again on them now with the market currently 50% below its peak. They made no sense at $7600 but do make sense at high $3000's. The key thing is to see the market for what it is rather than always thinking (hoping) something is going to rise.

 

[betthelot]

You said,

"Yes, the names you listed are uncommon. But the three founders could be Xiao, Yu and Zhang. These are among the most common surnames in China."

Where are all these companies with founders like that who are they using the acronymn as their corporate identity. Are you saying there is good enduser demand for names like yzx.com or are you saying something else?

Thats the point here lies the growth for these names - Chinese people love to use acroynms for their names for their international business - yet most dont have web sites - again this will have the greatest impact on prices not parking revenues (your original argument)

I think the main thing that is dissolving is the quality of argument.

Let's face it I predicted doom for this market when it was at its peak. You argued with me all the may to the bottom as the market declined 60%.

And I remind you as Reece pointed out, at the end of 2007 all the great and good were asked for their predictions for LLL.coms for 2008 and the all knowing sage snoop said they would raise. What you manage to do is state what the market is actually doing real time not making any future predictions so when its going south you keep saying its going south and when it turns you keep saying its going north. I await for you to say in the next couple of months the LLLL.com buyout will hold and then claim you got it right.

 

[snoop]

And I remind you as Reece pointed out, at the end of 2007 all the great and good were asked for their predictions for LLL.coms for 2008 and the all knowing sage snoop said they would raise.

They kept rising for 6-7 months after that (rose another 27% at minimum) so the end of 2007 was hardly the peak. Personally I changed my tune when they kept rising as the rest of the market slumped in 2008. That was a sign of a bubble in my view. I warned people here in May that I thtought the market didn't make sense

http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/474435-lll-com-owners-how-do-you.html

I feel somewhat uneasy about these names and that it is time to gradually take profits. The lll.com values have unhooked from the rest of the market this year and I never heard of so much positivity about these names. People are sure they will never fall, despite falls in the rest of the market and are talking about "when they get to $10,000", "when they get to $100,000". They may not fall next month or even within 6 months but I think these names are basically selling at inflated prices at the moment, the only thing keeping the price rises going is sentiment."

When the price dropped from around $7600 to around $7100 in June - first price drop in 6-7 years I told people people I thought the market would halve from those levels and to head for the exits ASAP.

What you manage to do is state what the market is actually doing real time not making any future predictions so when its going south you keep saying its going south and when it turns you keep saying its going north.

That makes a heck of a lot of sense to me, does it not make sense to you? I don't think it really takes any level of intelligance to do and never claimed otherwise. That is how things work to me though just as long as you know when it is atrting to go too far.

The domain market is generally either in a state of boom or bust without much in between. Once price start dipping that is the time to move in my view. That inital fall for LLL.com was a really big warning sign, the illusional that those names would never fall was shattered in the space of a couple of days in June 2008.

 

[betthelot]

AND I WILL DO A SNOOP and drag up the past post to prove a point - This is what you said 3 months ago when WJV.com went for $3,100

That is an interesting development it looked like the market had rebounded and then this. I think a major risk potentially is long term holders taking money out of the next 12 months. I don't think they are cheap.

AND ONLY 3 MONTHS LATER ..... and they have risen 20% in 3 months and suddenly you think they 'do make sense at high $3000's..' As I said you only call what is real time and change your position just after the market changes and then try to portray that you get all your calls right and the rest of us are delusional; your delusional in your own abilities. Cant wait to see the LLLL.coms hold and see your myth disappear.

They made no sense at $7600 but do make sense at high $3000's. The key thing is to see the market for what it is rather than always thinking (hoping) something is going to rise.

 

[snoop]

AND I WILL DO A SNOOP and drag up the past post to prove a point - This is what you said 3 months ago when WJV.com went for $3,100

AND ONLY 3 MONTHS LATER ..... and they have risen 20% in 3 months and suddenly you think 'do make sense at high $3000's..' As I said you only call what is real time and change your position just after the market changes and then try to portray that you get all your calls right and the rest of us are delusional; your delusional in your own abilities. Cant wait to see the LLLL.coms hold and see your myth disappear.

Right, things have improved hugely since then, the economy is on the rebound, LLL.com showed signs of bottoming.

When LLLL.com does start to bounce that is probably the point at will I will change my opinion on them aswell (what a shock). I suspect the higher quality ones will probably bottom out several months after the buyout falls over. Bottomed end names I have no faith in at all. Of course in the LLLL.com section they'll be under the same illusion that I must always be negative on something because they are always positive.

The time to buy is not when they are reaching new lows though, $7000, $6000, $5000, $4000, $3000, not if you want to make a profit. At some point you might get lucky with that strategy but it is unlikely. Stand clear until the crash is definately over.

change your position just after the market changes

You couldn't have said it any better. That is exactly what I'm saying people should do.

your delusional in your own abilities

I've always said it should be really easy to see what is happening and it doesn't take must ability. That is if you can distance yourself from your own holdings, ie what is best for you isn't always what is going to happen.