analysis World War III

[oldtimer]

I believe that President Biden was right when he said that Russia is going to Invade Ukraine.

Any intelligent person is going to come to the same conclusion knowing that Russia has already decided to pay any price imposed on it by the West through sanctions.

Short of full military confrontation by the West there is nothing that can make Russia to change its mind as they see this as a golden opportunity to resurrect the once powerful superpower that was equal to the USA.

But Russia’s ambitions are not going to stop with taking over Ukraine since it already has made plans to increase its sphere of influence to Asia, Middle East, and South America and perhaps the whole World knowing that the West is most likely not going to do anything beyond just imposing sanctions which ultimately will hurt the West itself by effecting the Global economy in an adverse way the longer that they go on.

I personally don’t like any of the old ideologies, philosophies, and doctrines of Capitalism, Communism, Socialism, Religious Fundamentalism and all the other “ism” that are derived from the bad human characteristics of Greed, Lust, Hate, Cruelty, Jealousy, Prejudice, and lack of Empathy and that have been infringing on our rights in one way or another throughout the history because they can only exist through supporting inequality, oppression, suppression, torture, killing, and War.

When it comes to saving the World the last thing that I want to see is the further expansion of these old systems that have all already proven to be a failure in dealing with the existential problems that are currently facing Humanity and the Environment.

We don’t want all these political, Religious, and Racial parties and groups to resurrect their past, we want something new that can propel the World into the next Era that is based on the Universal Principles and Values that have been derived through Logic and Compassion and not through Force and Violence.

By “We” I mean all the Intelligent, Righteous, and Peace loving people of the World.

IMO

Thread rules: everyone is invited to participate as long as things are kept on topic and are on the constructive, professional, and respectful side (personal attacks and demeaning of others will not be tolerated). Do not overwhelm this thread with memes and if you provide a link to an article you must give a brief explanation as to what it is about so that people know ahead of time what they are clicking on.

 

[oldtimer]

Do you really think Putler is going to enter into a war against the rest of the World? I don't think so.

The NATO Countries themselves have already indicated that they don't want to risk escalating this conflict to higher levels.

And yes according to the International law there is a difference between providing another Country with small defensive weapons versus giving them heavy weapons that could be used in an offensive way.

IMO

 

[Sutruk]

Sean Penn about the massacre of civilians that is currently happening in Ukraine by the russian Hitler. Well said Sean.
--------------------------

Sean Penn: I’ll smelt my Oscars if Academy doesn’t let Zelenskiy speak​

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/27/sean-penn-oscars-zelenskiy-ukraine

"Sean Penn has described any potential lack of backing by the Academy Awards for the Ukrainian people as “the most obscene moment in all of Hollywood history”.

Speaking on CNN, Penn, who has been in Ukraine and Poland making a documentary about the plight of refugees, vowed to publicly melt down his Oscar statuettes if the awards body declined to offer the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a platform at Sunday night’s event.

“There is nothing greater that the Academy Awards could do than to give [Zelenskiy] an opportunity to talk to all of us,” Penn said. “It is my understanding that a decision has been made not to do it. That is not me commenting on whether or not President Zelenskiy had wanted to.”

Penn suggested that if the Academy had “elected not to pursue the leadership in Ukraine, who are taking bullets and bombs for us, along with the Ukrainian children that they are trying to protect, then I think every single one of those people and every bit of that decision will have been the most obscene moment in all of Hollywood history.”

 

[Kingslayer]

Russian soldier surrenders with TANK in return for £7,500 and Ukrainian citizenship​

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-soldier-surrenders-tank-return-26566163

 

[oldtimer]

Sean Penn about the massacre of civilians that is currently happening in Ukraine by the russian Hitler. Well said Sean.
--------------------------

Sean Penn: I’ll smelt my Oscars if Academy doesn’t let Zelenskiy speak​

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/27/sean-penn-oscars-zelenskiy-ukraine

"Sean Penn has described any potential lack of backing by the Academy Awards for the Ukrainian people as “the most obscene moment in all of Hollywood history”.

Speaking on CNN, Penn, who has been in Ukraine and Poland making a documentary about the plight of refugees, vowed to publicly melt down his Oscar statuettes if the awards body declined to offer the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a platform at Sunday night’s event.

“There is nothing greater that the Academy Awards could do than to give [Zelenskiy] an opportunity to talk to all of us,” Penn said. “It is my understanding that a decision has been made not to do it. That is not me commenting on whether or not President Zelenskiy had wanted to.”

Penn suggested that if the Academy had “elected not to pursue the leadership in Ukraine, who are taking bullets and bombs for us, along with the Ukrainian children that they are trying to protect, then I think every single one of those people and every bit of that decision will have been the most obscene moment in all of Hollywood history.”

I guess maybe they could have put something in the background at the Oscars as part of the decore of the set to symbolize the unity and support of the people from all around globe for reestablishing the World Peace and stopping all the killings in the Ukraine and all the other Countries like Afghanistan and Yemen where little children are starving due to sanctions.

IMO

 

[Sutruk]

And yes according to the International law there is a difference between providing another Country with small defensive weapons versus giving them heavy weapons that could be used in an offensive way.

Can you please show me that law, where it says that you can send Stingers and anti-tank weapons, but cannot send tanks and aircraft? I am very interested to see that law.

 

[Cal2]

Can you please show me that law, where it says that you can send Stingers and anti-tank weapons, but cannot send tanks and aircraft? I am very interested to see that law.

From a quick google search: http://opiniojuris.org/2022/02/08/western-weapons-in-ukraine/

The search: https://www.google.com/search?q=int...me..69i57.29190j1j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

[LoveCatchyDomains]

I guess maybe they could have put something in the background at the Oscars as part of the decore of the set to symbolize the unity and support of the people from all around globe for reestablishing the World Peace and stopping all the killings in the Ukraine and all the other Countries like Afghanistan and Yemen where little children are starving due to sanctions.

IMO

That sounds diplomatic.

 

[Sutruk]

From a quick google search: http://opiniojuris.org/2022/02/08/western-weapons-in-ukraine/

The search: https://www.google.com/search?q=int...me..69i57.29190j1j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Thanks for the links. There is really no international law out there where it says that it is lawful to provide anti-aircraft (Stinger missiles) and anti-tank (Javelin and others) and not aircraft of tanks to a country.

What international laws recognize is the right for self-defense of a country, even more when the two countries in war are so uneven in terms of weaponry.

-------------------------------
"The nexus between the supplying state’s knowledge that the defensive weapons will be used to commit war crimes is remote. Allies will not have the knowledge that these weapons will commit war crimes, and this is unlikely to change when subjected to a risk assessment."
-------------------------------

Well, knowing that Putin is currently committing war crimes by mass shelling and bombing innocent civilians, civilian buildings, Hospitals, schools and any other civilian infrastructure that Putin finds out there, I guess that's violating the UN laws for itself.

And giving the fact that Ukraine will use those weapons for self-defense, I really don't see any law with a minimum common sense that do not allow to provide a country with the necessary weapons they need in order to not be exterminated by a way more powerful invader in terms of weapons.

 

[Sutruk]

Ukraine needs tanks and anti-aircraft missiles for self defense, to defend their country, to defend the lives of its citizens that are constanly bombed day and night by Putin's aircraft.

They need tanks to save its citizens from being completely exterminated and starved in Mariupol and other cities that are currently besieged by the russian Hitler.

There is no international law that prohibits to supply a country with defensive weapons in order to survive and to not be exterminated by a way more powerful country in terms of weaponry.

Those terms are exclusively impossed by Putler under the threat of WW3. Something that Putler would not want in any case.

 

[oldtimer]

While we were talking about the different ways that people at Oscars could show their support for World Peace in an unfortunate turn of events the Peace was shattered at the Oscars itself when one of the hosts made an inappropriate joke about the wife of one of the nominees which caused a physical altercation on the set.

We shouldn't take Peace for granted.

IMO

 

[Cannuck]

From a quick google search: http://opiniojuris.org/2022/02/08/western-weapons-in-ukraine/

Thanks for the links. There is really no international law out there where it says that it is lawful to provide anti-aircraft (Stinger missiles) and anti-tank (Javelin and others) and not aircraft of tanks to a country.

And giving the fact that Ukraine will use those weapons for self-defense, I really don't see any law with a minimum common sense that do not allow to provide a country with the necessary weapons they need in order to not be exterminated by a way more powerful invader in terms of weapons.

According to the article cited by @Cal2: 'Western weapons in Ukraine'

Summary

The defensive weapons supplied to Ukraine are unlikely at this point to be against international arms trade law. From a legal perspective, offensive weapons that are capable of indirect fire and indiscriminate shelling should not be supplied to Ukraine, as these are likely to be against international arms trade law.
...
Article 7, Export and Export Assessment, adds in a risk assessment criteria should Article 6 (3)’s “knowledge requirement” not be reached. The ICRC has described this as creating a “two-stage process”.

Article 7:

1. If the export is not prohibited under Article 6, each exporting State Party … shall … assess the potential that the conventional arms or items:

(a) would contribute to or undermine peace and security;
(b) could be used to:
(i) commit or facilitate a serious violation of international humanitarian law;
(ii) commit or facilitate a serious violation of international human rights law;

Allies must ask themselves: would the weapon be used to commit war crimes, would it contribute to or undermine peace and security or could it be used to commit or facilitate war crimes?
Under Article 6 (3), allies have no indication that Ukraine would intend to use the weapons to commit war crimes in the commission of defending itself from possible renewed Russian attack.

Whilst the ostensibly defensive anti-tank and anti-air weaponry could be attempted to be used offensively, the prospect of causing a war crime such as indiscriminate shelling is remote. The anti-tank NLAW’s range is a mere 800 meters, anti-armour Javelin reaches around 5KM and anti-air Stinger reaching up to 8KM. All are designed for direct line of fire, and all depend on a precise target acquisition signature for their operation.

However, the greater 15KM range and rudimentary indirect (IDF) (up and down) trajectory of the D-30 Howitzers and Czechia’s 152mm artillery piece lend themselves to the possibility of indiscriminate shelling that Ukraine has been previously accused of. This, in part, may offer an explanation why Germany refused to permit Estonia’s transfer of the D-30 Howitzers to Ukraine.

International Humanitarian Law

According to Common Article 1 (CA1) of the Geneva Conventions and the ICRC commentary, states have the responsibility to respect and ensure respect for the Conventions “in all circumstances” by taking all reasonable measures to prevent violations. If arms are provided with the knowledge that they will be used to violate IHL, both their use and their supply constitute a violation of CA1.

Though Russia is clearly the aggressor, breaches of IHL by one conflicting party do not permit a breach by the other side of the conflict... “war crimes on one side do not justify war crimes on the other side.”

Proven to be a modern weapon of war, even the export of drones (from Turkey) have come under question, as their efficacy has been seen to escalate Russian aggression... go figure?

Recently, Ethiopia used a Turkish attack drone that killed 58 civilians sheltering in a school

“Because this is technology that requires a lot of maintenance and piloting, Turkey could be made directly responsible if there is a consistent pattern of drone strikes used against civilians and Turkish crew is on the ground doing maintenance on the drones”.

https://www.politico.eu/article/evidence-civilian-bombing-ethiopia-turkish-drone/

 

[Sutruk]

According to the article cited by @Cal2: 'Western weapons in Ukraine'

Summary

The defensive weapons supplied to Ukraine are unlikely at this point to be against international arms trade law. From a legal perspective, offensive weapons that are capable of indirect fire and indiscriminate shelling should not be supplied to Ukraine, as these are likely to be against international arms trade law.
...
Article 7, Export and Export Assessment, adds in a risk assessment criteria should Article 6 (3)’s “knowledge requirement” not be reached. The ICRC has described this as creating a “two-stage process”.




Allies must ask themselves: would the weapon be used to commit war crimes, would it contribute to or undermine peace and security or could it be used to commit or facilitate war crimes?
Under Article 6 (3), allies have no indication that Ukraine would intend to use the weapons to commit war crimes in the commission of defending itself from possible renewed Russian attack.

Whilst the ostensibly defensive anti-tank and anti-air weaponry could be attempted to be used offensively, the prospect of causing a war crime such as indiscriminate shelling is remote. The anti-tank NLAW’s range is a mere 800 meters, anti-armour Javelin reaches around 5KM and anti-air Stinger reaching up to 8KM. All are designed for direct line of fire, and all depend on a precise target acquisition signature for their operation.

However, the greater 15KM range and rudimentary indirect (IDF) (up and down) trajectory of the D-30 Howitzers and Czechia’s 152mm artillery piece lend themselves to the possibility of indiscriminate shelling that Ukraine has been previously accused of. This, in part, may offer an explanation why Germany refused to permit Estonia’s transfer of the D-30 Howitzers to Ukraine.

International Humanitarian Law

According to Common Article 1 (CA1) of the Geneva Conventions and the ICRC commentary, states have the responsibility to respect and ensure respect for the Conventions “in all circumstances” by taking all reasonable measures to prevent violations. If arms are provided with the knowledge that they will be used to violate IHL, both their use and their supply constitute a violation of CA1.

Though Russia is clearly the aggressor, breaches of IHL by one conflicting party do not permit a breach by the other side of the conflict... “war crimes on one side do not justify war crimes on the other side.”

Proven to be a modern weapon of war, even the export of drones (from Turkey) have come under question, as their efficacy has been seen to escalate Russian aggression... go figure?

Recently, Ethiopia used a Turkish attack drone that killed 58 civilians sheltering in a school

“Because this is technology that requires a lot of maintenance and piloting, Turkey could be made directly responsible if there is a consistent pattern of drone strikes used against civilians and Turkish crew is on the ground doing maintenance on the drones”.

https://www.politico.eu/article/evidence-civilian-bombing-ethiopia-turkish-drone/

Thanks. Just to point out, that's the opinion of that lawyer. It would be interesting to hear what that lawyer has to say about Putin's war crimes and daily mass bombings of civilians in Ukraine. Is Putin following international laws?

Does she really thinks that Ukraine is going to use the arms for "war crimes"? Who the f*ck is exterminating and daily bombing innocent civilians in Ukraine? What is going to do Ukraine with the weapons, invade Russia?

In short, Ukraine needs weapons to defend themselves from being annihilated by Putin, not to commit any "war crime" in Ukraine soil. I guess that lawyer would have quite a different view about the laws if she would find herself in Mariupol right now? I bet so.

The world must stand for Ukraine and help them with what they need. They are not asking for nukes, nor for NATO entering Ukraine soil. They are asking for the minimum weaponry for self defense, in order to do not end up annihilated by Putin.

 

[oldtimer]

The world must stand for Ukraine and help them with what they need. They are not asking for nukes, nor for NATO entering Ukraine soil. They are asking for the minimum weaponry for self defense, in order to do not end up annihilated by Putin.

If there was a way to do this, don't you think that they would have done it by now.

Anyway for Civilians who are trapped in Mariupol and other besieged Cities they need food, water, and medicine more than anything else so I was thinking maybe they can make some special drones to carry those things to them to keep them from starvation.

Normally they would drop those things from planes, but since that is not feasible right now they should consider doing it by using some smart delivery drones.

Since those supplies are not weapons I believe that it would be okay to help them this way.

IMO

 

[oldtimer]

New round of diplomatic talks is going to start today in Turkey between Ukraine and Russia.

Lets hope that these diplomatic talks are going to lead to a ceasefire. This might be the last hope for the civilians trapped in the besieged Cities like Mariupol to get some help.

IMO

 

[bmugford]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508196832136122381

 

[Tatiana_B]

I'am creating forum army.com.ua to read only true news about Ukraine - https://army.com.ua/forum/

If there are volunteers willing to help us with blog and boards go to PM

 

[Cannuck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508196832136122381

Remind me again... who are the REAL nazis?

 

[.X.]

New round of diplomatic talks is going to start today in Turkey between Ukraine and Russia.

Lets hope that these diplomatic talks are going to lead to a ceasefire. This might be the last hope for the civilians trapped in the besieged Cities like Mariupol to get some help.

IMO

There is always a chance when diplomatic talks take place, the Turks are good people and have had influential times through out history, I hope these talks bring the conflict to an end .

 

[Cannuck]

New round of diplomatic talks is going to start today in Turkey between Ukraine and Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange views on the war in Ukraine right now, would be "counterproductive".

Speaking to Serbian media outlets, Lavrov added that any meeting between the two leaders should happen once the two sides are closer to agreeing on key issues.

On forthcoming talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey, Lavrov adds he'd like negotiations "to be fruitful".

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60890199

Lets hope that these diplomatic talks are going to lead to a ceasefire. This might be the last hope for the civilians trapped in the besieged Cities like Mariupol to get some help.

Ukraine has no plans to open any humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from besieged cities on Monday because of intelligence reports warning of possible Russian “provocations” along the routes, deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/28/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news

 

[.X.]

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange views on the war in Ukraine right now, would be "counterproductive".

Speaking to Serbian media outlets, Lavrov added that any meeting between the two leaders should happen once the two sides are closer to agreeing on key issues.

On forthcoming talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey, Lavrov adds he'd like negotiations "to be fruitful".

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60890199

Ukraine has no plans to open any humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from besieged cities on Monday because of intelligence reports warning of possible Russian “provocations” along the routes, deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/28/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news

A great start would be letting the civilians who want to leave , leave . The Ukraine is in ruins , the civilians who want to leave need a safe exit.