Will .Com ever die?

[Atomic Domains]

I am a strong believer that ".Com" will always be King, but when I talk to a lot of other domainers, they suggest that ".Com" will die within the next few years.

Just wanted to here some opinions on this.

 

[Archangel]

Throwing my hat into the ring:

Belief of next-generation web users being accustomed to newer extensions is a proven pipe-dream. In the 1980s (yeah, not many even knew the internet existed back then), there was .com & .net. By the year 1998, there was com/net/org and I think .co.uk was here at that time (I'm from the US, cut me some slack). The 'next generation' were given .info & .biz. I know ppl who have never heard of either. And that's relatively common. The idea alone that the net-users of the 2020's will be accustomed to a new extension is, in itself, a pipedream. Smoke and mirrors, my compatriots, smoke and mirrors.

.com IS LESS POPULAR right now. But this is to the almighty ccTLD. Some countries prefer to use their ccTLD more than .com. But we're talking about the general gTLD's. If .com had been around for as long as it had, then tell me, how will it die? It made it in the late 80s, when the 'internet' was a foreign word. It was #1 in the 90s & #1 in the 2000's and is #1 now. ppl refer to this industry as the '.com business' for a reason: .com will never lose focus.

I should also say this:

STOP READING PROPAGANDA!

Of COURSE companies will tell us that .foo or whatnot will 'be in direct competition to .com.' Why? Easy: $. They tell us .me is the 'personal domain' in the US so it'll have appeal here & would sell. They also claim .tv is for television for the same reason. BOTH the .tv & .me are ccTLDs. But companies will say anything to earn a buck. And the domain industry is never short on fools who eat up this bullshit & believe .com will one day fall. Proof: when a new extension is released, it has pretty much every dictionary term registered within 24 hours of its release. There are idiots who believe what they read from business who care about money and nothing more. If you wanna be any good in this industry, sever ties with ALL of the ppl you know who think .com will ever have a challenge.

No, .com is more or less immortal. It'll never die.

 

[snowbird]

Hey im just putting a different light on things. A new idea. Sure right now it may not seem feasible, but give it time. When there is money to be made, it will be tried.

Never, they already have netflix.com. It works just fine. You have to understand, a lot of these big companies know a little something about marketing, something that seems to get lost on a lot of people. There is no need for a change, no need to confuse their customers, there is no benefit at all to do such a thing.

You need to realize JB Lions, Obama was for change and America was foolish enough to vote for change. It is up to the world to see if change is still desired. bahahaha.

 

[sky]

If I'm a small business and I can't get the perfect 1 word keyword .COM domain and have to pay $25,000 for a two word .com, why wouldn't I just get the perfect 1-keyword .PRO and build up the SEO and marketing with the money I saved?

 

[jmcc]

I am a strong believer that ".Com" will always be King, but when I talk to a lot of other domainers, they suggest that ".Com" will die within the next few years.

It is not a good thing to ask domainers about the future of any TLD.

In terms of volume, .com TLD had 104,499,237 domains in its zonefile this morning. That gives it a significant market presence in all markets. As a global TLD, it is the default choice.

Where .com is beginning to lose is in markets where there is a strong ccTLD. That's because most business is local rather than global. A strong ccTLD begins to make having the ccTLD version of the domain in that market important and the effect is to push .com TLD, in those markets, into second place. The best examples of ccTLD positive markets are Germany (where .de is the main TLD in the market) and the UK (where .uk is the main TLD in the market). As country level markets progress in terms of telecoms, bandwidth, hosting and economy, they shift to being ccTLD positive. The USA, and to a lesser extent Canada, uses .com as its de-facto ccTLD. Without this effect, .com would not have quite the market position that it enjoys today and .com has benefited from the poor marketing of .us ccTLD.

As a global TLD, .com is unlikely to die off in the near future. The new gTLDs will have a minimal effect in comparison to the ccTLDs. In some countries, .com is no longer the king.

Regards...jmcc

 

[Archangel]

Answer: you'll lose traffic. Pretty much everyone outside this industry assumes all urls are .com, thus if you have site.pro, ppl will more than likely try to access your website with sitepro.com or they'll forget the .pro & type in site.com. This is another reason owning a .com is an important thing.

If I'm a small business and I can't get the perfect 1 word keyword .COM domain and have to pay $25,000 for a two word .com, why wouldn't I just get the perfect 1-keyword .PRO and build up the SEO and marketing with the money I saved?

 

[JB Lions]

If I'm a small business and I can't get the perfect 1 word keyword .COM domain and have to pay $25,000 for a two word .com, why wouldn't I just get the perfect 1-keyword .PRO and build up the SEO and marketing with the money I saved?

I just linked you to a post showing you can get them for low x,xxx. That blog has those type of posts from time to time, just have to read them.

You can look just at the travel sector, as far as making up names. Travelocity, Expedia, Orbitz etc. Get creative. The most valuable tool a domainer can have, is the one between their ears.

As far as money saved, you should think long term. Think of lost business to the .com. How much is even 1 customer worth to you? Might be a life long customer. There will be some confusion there.

Just for kicks and this would be interesting for people to do, to get results. Because development plays a major value in an extension. I have a Stores bookmark folder, with places I've shopped at or I might in the future. 38 stores. Every single one of them a .com.

A small business is like a big business, they want to make money. They want something easy. They want something people are familiar with. As far as extensions, it's .com.

Sky, what's your favorite business on a .pro you shop with? I know I don't even have 1 .pro bookmark in the rest of my folders and I have way too many bookmarks.

 

[jmcc]

Google won't treat it any differently than .COM.

Interesting point. Search engines have, to some extent, made the right of the dot redundant.

However the reality is that how people remember things decides the market leader. People remember .com and their ccTLD. After that, it gets confusing.

Regards...jmcc

 

[sky]

Answer: you'll lose traffic. Pretty much everyone outside this industry assumes all urls are .com, thus if you have site.pro, ppl will more than likely try to access your website with sitepro.com or they'll forget the .pro & type in site.com. This is another reason owning a .com is an important thing.

Well then if I'm not rich, I guess I just have to pick my poison. I figure if I can't get the definitive generic 1-word .COM (and frankly, who can?) then my choice is limited to some forgettable 2 word or 'brandable .COM, versus a strong memorable keyword paired with the 'forgettable' .PRO TLD. So, then, which kind of 'forgettability' is better? The .PRO TLD extension itself, or the less-than-ideal .COM domain name such as DoggityS*****ts.COM, or IdahoAluminumCarburetors.COM? Of *course* if I can get just Carburetors.com I get that and happy day. Max memorability, max traffic. How much traffic does a good sought after service lose by going with a strong keyword .PRO vs a .COM?

There are two different things you indicate - one is that people will cling to some idea that .COM is the only domain extension worth clicking, and the other that other TLDs are not memorable.

But from experience, I know that if a website provides a good service, you quickly remember the name of it. And .PRO is not *that* hard to remember. Like "imgshack.us" , after using it a few times, I'll never forget that URL. And I just don't see why a consumer who see's a .PRO high in the SERP with a good tagline and excerpt (the content summary the search engines show), wouldn't click on a .PRO.

,PRO sounds good, and the first time a customer clicks on a .US or a .PRO or a .BIZ and finds a good service there the mystique of .COM goes down a notch. Now they'll think, hey, what am I missing by not checking out these other sites?

 

[jmcc]

Well then if I'm not rich, I guess I just have to pick my poison. I figure if I can't get the definitive generic 1-word .COM (and frankly, who can?) then my choice is limited to some forgettable 2 word or 'brandable .COM, versus a strong memorable keyword paired with the 'forgettable' .PRO TLD. Which kind of 'forgettability' is better, in other words? The unfamiliar .PRO TLD, or the less-than-ideal .COM domain name like DoggityS*****ts.COM, or IdahoAluminumCarburators.COM?

There's something that you are missing. The market position of .com means that people don't really have to remember the .com part of the domain name or url. They do have to remember the .pro because that's an unfamiliar TLD. The Idaho domain above has a lot of anchors that make it easy for people to remember and the geographical term immediately puts it in a context that they can remember moreso than a simple one word generic domain name.

Regards...jmcc

 

[NPer]

If I'm a small business and I can't get the perfect 1 word keyword .COM domain and have to pay $25,000 for a two word .com, why wouldn't I just get the perfect 1-keyword .PRO and build up the SEO and marketing with the money I saved?

Why .PRO?

People using your same argument are saying .CO.

People using your same argument are saying .BIZ.

People using your same argument are saying .TRAVEL

People using your same argument are saying .NYC

People using your same argument are saying .CRAP

So whose argument is more credible?

Are all of you right? Just because of what exactly?

So you are saying that end-users want to pay reg-fee instead because .COM is taken? Yet those using your argument are buying names in these CRAP extensions and asking ridiculous prices to end-users. No wonder .COM prices are going up!

You making are a scarce commodity even scarcer.

You wonder why end-users choose .COM over .CRAP? Here's the answer: if they going to pay a premium on a .PRO, why not just go for the extension that has proven to be successful, than one that isn't (and the .PRO is anyway priced ridiculously-because you and others bought it for resale.)

All these extensions are good for .COM actually... just make them even more valuable!

 

[sky]

There's something that you are missing. The market position of .com means that people don't really have to remember the .com part of the domain name or url. They do have to remember the .pro because that's an unfamiliar TLD. The Idaho domain above has a lot of anchors that make it easy for people to remember and the geographical term immediately puts it in a context that they can remember moreso than a simple one word generic domain name.

Regards...jmcc

I think it remains to be seen if IdahoAluminumCarburetors.com is more memorable than Carburetors.pro. If I had to pick, I'd go with Carburetors.pro for my own business. Of course Carburetors.com would kick my ass by getting more traffic, and I'd have to compete like hell to compensate, but compared to more convoluted, longer, harder-to-type .COMs I'd stand a pretty good chance, I think. Unfortunately we're just talking out of our sassafras right now because we really don't have the marketing data or any great examples to analyze, do we?

 

[infmoney]

Good point. But if you wanted to compete for a reasonable price you could always buy AluminumCarburetors.com for x,xxx and still be in the game.

Once someone leaves your site, the next time they look you up will be with the .com.

Even I make the mistake with my email, which is comcast.net. I have typed the .com plenty of times.

I think it remains to be seen if IdahoAluminumCarburetors.com is more memorable than Carburetors.pro. If I had to pick, I'd go with Carburetors.pro for my own business. Of course Carburetors.com would kick my ass by getting more traffic, and I'd have to compete like hell to compensate, but compared to more convoluted, longer, harder-to-type .COMs I'd stand a pretty good chance, I think. Unfortunately we're just talking out of our sassafras right now because we really don't have the marketing data or any great examples to analyze, do we?

 

[jmcc]

I think it remains to be seen if IdahoAluminumCarburetors.com is more memorable than Carburetors.pro.

But where does carburetors.pro belong? What market does it operate in? Where is it?

If I had to pick, I'd go with Carburetors.pro for my own business.

It could work with a lot of SEO but would people think that the .pro means that it is a site for fixing them rather than selling them?

Of course Carburetors.com would kick my ass by getting more traffic, and I'd have to compete like hell to compensate, but compared to more convoluted, longer, harder-to-type .COMs I'd stand a pretty good chance, I think.

In the US market perhaps.

Unfortunately we're just talking out of our sassafras right now because we really don't have the marketing data or any great examples to analyze, do we?

I suppose it is anecdotal evidence but I track approximately 20 million ccTLD domain names in addition to the major gTLDs. The ccTLDs tend to be at the more extreme end of business building in that they tend to micro-target markets (cities, towns, even neighbourhoods). The patterns also exist in .com and to a lesser extent in the other TLDs. It may be due to the more recent nature of some ccTLDs that the good, descriptive and generic domains are gone but there is definitely a different process of memorisation of domains at work with ccTLDs.

Regards...jmcc

 

[hawkeye]

Edit ... rambling on..

**sorry to SKY for the wrong quote before.

 

[Kate]

I think it remains to be seen if IdahoAluminumCarburetors.com is more memorable than Carburetors.pro. If I had to pick, I'd go with Carburetors.pro for my own business.

It's your prerogative, but why haven't end users been flocking to .pro and other alternate extensions if they are credible alternatives.

Of course Carburetors.com would kick my ass by getting more traffic, and I'd have to compete like hell to compensate, but compared to more convoluted, longer, harder-to-type .COMs I'd stand a pretty good chance, I think.

It's also a question of credibility. When consumers see your business on a TLD that they are totally unfamiliar with, it's easy to dismiss you - maybe you're a scammer
You can use a .biz but you'll still look cheap. No longer viable when you run a high-profile operation.

 

[mwzd]

Over 2 million .com domains expire every month, which is almost 2% of all the registered .coms

But will it ever 'die', probably not, too much legacy development.

What the scenario will be in 20 years is that it will probably lose it's prominence as the goto for web branding, in the short term though - don't drop your two word .coms just yet.

 

[jmcc]

People using your same argument are saying .NYC

I would not include .NYC in that group. New York has a very strong identity and if the registry does its job well, it will perform like a genuine ccTLD (rather than a repurposed ccTLD like .co).

Regards...jmcc

 

[Peter]

.com as an extension will not die as such. There are numerous factors which have caused a slowdown in the rate of .com’s being registered in comparison to cctld’s and other extensions.

Firstly there are so many domains registered using the .com extension that it is a much higher ask for it to maintain the same % of new registrations. There is also the issue of finding quality names that are relevant to the registrant’s requirements. Due to this difficulty the registrant would start looking towards other extensions.

1 issue that has threatened the dominance of any extension are search engines and browser features. Search engines are starting to care a lot less of what extension is used (this used to be quite a big indicator of quality). The more people use search engines also limit the importance of the extension and the domain itself. Browser features can threaten the importance of the domain extension as well. For example for some time if you type a word into the address bar it may try to go automatically to the word with .com appended to the end. The shift has pretty much moved completely towards the browser carrying out a search using your favourite search engine (or at least the 1 configured as the default search engine.

Another potential technology that has threatened to impact the relevance of a domain name are for example smart tv’s. The shift is moving away from using pc’s to access the internet. This has mainly been taken up by smart phones. We still currently mainly use the same old method for browsing the web but we are greatly reliant on apps to disseminate information and of course we have no knowledge or reason to care what domain it is connecting too. Smart TV’s also use apps or directory style systems (yeah a bit of a shift backwards).

Nobody truly knows how we will be accessing the internet in say the next 5-10 years. It is pretty much granted that we will still be using domain names but the reliance will most likely decrease dramatically.

 

[ecalc]

If I'm a small business and I can't get the perfect 1 word keyword .COM domain and have to pay $25,000 for a two word .com, why wouldn't I just get the perfect 1-keyword .PRO and build up the SEO and marketing with the money I saved?

'You' probably would reg a .pro but the typical small business person wouldn't because he/she has never heard of .pro and probably never will. Step into the shoes of the small business owner. A kumquat seller. Hmm, I need a domain name. Google search: domain name. Top sponsored result: godaddy. Top organic result: godaddy. Click. Welcome to godaddy. Your new website starts with a domain. Search for a new domain .com (<- DEFAULT) go. Wow, somebody beat me to kumquats.com. Filthy squatter. Wait a minute, what's this, never heard of these but I can get kumquats.us for $3.99 or kumquats.biz for $5.99. Cool, click, click, click, click, click, click, click, thank you for your purchase, done.

I poked around godaddy to see where .pro is squirreled away. Couldn't find it.

During the 12-month period May 2011 thru April 2012 .pro registrations grew by 8002. During the 24-month period May 2010 thru April 2012 .pro registrations grew by 382. Go back 36 months, net growth 90. Look at the bright side - momentum is building. *cough*

source: http://www.icann.org/en/resources/registries/reports/pro/pro-transactions-apr12-en.csv

 

[JB Lions]

"Unfortunately we're just talking out of our sassafras right now because we really don't have the marketing data or any great examples to analyze, do we?"

Actually, we do. It's called the market. You're giving examples that they can be used, except businesses are choosing not to. It's been available, what's going to change in the future that's going to have businesses all of a sudden running to them? If anything, with these new extensions coming, it'll be devalued. If a business doesn't want to use a .com, they're going to have many more alternative extensions to choose from in the future, some that might make more sense than a .pro.