Which LLLL.com Camp do you fall into?

[-REECE-]

From what I've seen, there are 5 rather common LLLL.com camps here:

1. There are those who believe all LLLL.coms are worthless.

2. Those who believe that people who bought in pre-buyout got a good deal but are uncertain about what the future holds for people paying multiples of that original regfee for LLLL.coms.

3. Those who believe that only premium LLLL.coms and perhaps triple premium LLLL.coms will ever be worth much more than prices today (renewal fees must be taken into account here).

4. Those who believe all LLLL.coms will eventually appreciate in value (taking into consideration all renewal fees paid).

5. Those who believe LLLL.coms will follow the path of LLL.coms and that soon every LLLL.com will trade for $XXX+.





Number 1 isn't really an opinion -- it's an outright lie to oneself (or clearly the sign of a very inexperienced domainer). If one thinks that all LLLL.coms -- premiums, VCVCs, and CVCVs included are worthless, I don't have much to say to you... Other than to perhaps find another hobby :lol:

I can agree with all other views here and when represented with facts or reasons, all can reveal a certain "truth".

Those in Camp 2 are aware of aftermarket LLLL.com prices. They see that prices are always in excess of registration costs and acknowledge that those who bought in pre-buyout made a good decision. They're not necessarily certain what the future holds and are divided on this issue -- some suggest selling enough to cover your initial investment, some suggest selling names each year to fund next year's renewals, and some aren't quite too sure what's best to do and are perhaps waiting until a later date before selling their names or making their opinion on this matter known.


A person in Camp number 3 recognizes the success pre-buyout domainers achieved. Nevertheless, they're not confident about the long term outlook of names containing several bad letters and are skeptical about whether values can increase at a rate faster than annual registration fees will eat up. Such a person could point out that premium LLLL.coms (esp. CVCVs) have a long history of appreciation and that this is unlikely to change... Perhaps they feel that as LLL.coms continue to appreciate, premium LLLL.coms may eventually become the choice of small and medium sized companies... If they look at LLLL.coms this way and see their value as being tied to enduser potential, it's hard to discount this opinion... There are clearly far more endusers for your average quad premium than your average anti-premium. That's a given and this LLLL.com camp, while perhaps playing it a bit conservatively, certainly have a firm grounding in reality.

A person in Camp 4 (I consider myself in this group) looks at LLLL.coms as a long term investment. They believe that various factors (increasing number of domainers, decreasing quality of new registrations, increased demand for short domain names, increased prices on LLL.coms caused by corporate investors,...) will eventually contribute to higher LLLL.com prices. They're not confident enough to say with certainty that LLLL.coms will hit a certain price at a given point in time, however they're fairly confident that given a long term (2-5 year) outlook, prices will be sufficiently higher than they are today for not only renewal fees to be compensated for, but also lost opportunity costs.

A person in Camp 5 usually believes that all LLLL.coms are currently underpriced substantially and that the market will eventually (some here would even say soon) awake a sleeping giant. They use as evidence continuously increasing demand for LLLL.coms, the fact that all drops are picked up almost instantaneously, the fact that LLLL.coms are already selling for 100-500% ROI over prices even a few months ago,... Much of their reasoning is based on events which have already occurred. The big difference here from a Camp 4 domainer, is that the Camp 4 domainer believes it may take several years (possibly 5 or even more) before the worst LLLL.coms hit $XXX (however he believes they will be a profitable investment, regardless of how long they take to get there), whereas a Camp 5 domainer believes that LLLL.coms will all hit $XXX+ within 2 years or less -- many believe it will happen in 1 year or less. While a Camp 4 domainer regards rapid appreciation as a possibility (granted the various factors they have analyzed could indeed rapidly increase in their favor), they're more than willing to wait for it to happen.

Your thoughts? Did I miss an LLLL.com Camp here?

 

[Alex]

I am in camp 4.

I think all LLLL.com's will appreciate in value, but I think that premium ones will appreciate on a higher level than non premium ones.

 

[bricio]

#4 or #5
eg.domains was perfect in the explanation... i second him

i will go with #4

 

[npcomplete]

I voted for #3. A real gutsy move. Kind of like saying you are an independent when it comes to political parties. (OTOH, in politics I don't like *anybody* in any of the parties).

Marc

 

[DNK.it]

Camp 5

 

[DotUSDomains]

Probably #2 i did pay $50 for TMYD.COM

I cant say there a wast of money as thats just not true

With people like yourself Reece i do hope they shoot up in value very quickly for you, No point me saying otherwise as it doesn't affect me much if any.

Thats for now, who knows what might happen

 

[-REECE-]

Thanks Stevie

TMYD -- TradeMark Your Domain :tu: Very nice purchase there! I certainly hope they go up quickly (if only to save me renewal fees!), but do think we'll see substantially slower growth rates than we're used to lately...

Probably #2 i did pay $50 for TMYD.COM

I cant say there a wast of money as thats just not true

With people like yourself Reece i do hope they shoot up in value very quickly for you, No point me saying otherwise as it doesn't affect me much if any.

Thats for now, who knows what might happen

 

[DotUSDomains]

Thanks Stevie

TMYD -- TradeMark Your Domain :tu: Very nice purchase there! I certainly hope they go up quickly (if only to save me renewal fees!), but do think we'll see substantially slower growth rates than we're used to lately...

Exactly why i bought the name,

Was either that or "Trade mark your design"

Not sure on the growth rate but going by what i know of they will go up in value no doubt about that but theres nothing to compare the time to ?

Cant compare to lll .com. cant compare to keywords cant compare it to much really.

Just have to wait and see.

Good luck with your names.
How may is it now

EDIT: My Signatures your's for as long as you wish :EDIT

 

[-REECE-]

1605 at the moment.

You're right -- we're in unchartered territory when it comes to non-premium LLLL.coms

Very kind of you to offer help promoting my blog in your sig. Thank you Reaching a few new domainers each day and it's great to help spread LLLL.com information to non-domainers (or soon to be new domainers) through the power of Google and Wordpress! :tu:

Not sure on the growth rate but going by what i know of they will go up in value no doubt about that but theres nothing to compare the time to ?

Cant compare to lll .com. cant compare to keywords cant compare it to much really.

Just have to wait and see.

Good luck with your names.
How may is it now

EDIT: My Signatures your's for as long as you wish :EDIT

 

[KingDon]

When the LLL's sold out, those who invested wondered if they wasted their money. There were many people who thought it was the right idea, and many people who also thought it was the wrong move. Other than being 27 times larger, the similarities are shocking in the arguments for and against LLLL’s as an investment.

I believe with people who feel that as more of the population comes online, the demand for names will continue to grow (all .com names). I’m not sure if we’ve increased the size of the internet audience by 27 (I bet it’s doubled) since the LLL buyout; but it’s not hard for me to see ugly LLLL’s fetching around $100 within a year by looking at it mathematically.

I’m not saying the worst LLLL is worth 1/27 of the worst LLL; I’m saying the LLLL’s have sold out, people are arguing about whether LLLL.net is better than LLLL.info, and the entire LLLL.cn has been taken out of the game. Add this all together with the ever growing internet population and decreasing domain availability; and that’s why I park my tent in camp 5.

It’s just how things work in my brain, and to me there are enough pieces of the puzzle laid out to recognize what the big picture already is.

 

[-REECE-]

Considering that many are expecting a $10,000 minimum LLL.com price by late '08/early '09, obtaining 1/100th of that for your LLLL.com certainly sounds reasonable... I'll be very interested to see if months with large LLL.com gains translate into months (perhaps a little while afterwards) with equally large LLLL.com gains...

We're in unchartered territory, and no matter how much one is inclined to manipulate the data we currently have at our fingertips... We're missing so many variables, potential variables, potential variables of those potential variables, ... ad infinitum ... that it's pretty hard to present a statement about future price expectations either way with relative certainty. Your prediction is certainly possible though...

When the LLL's sold out, those who invested wondered if they wasted their money. There were many people who thought it was the right idea, and many people who also thought it was the wrong move. Other than being 27 times larger, the similarities are shocking in the arguments for and against LLLL’s as an investment.

I believe with people who feel that as more of the population comes online, the demand for names will continue to grow (all .com names). I’m not sure if we’ve increased the size of the internet audience by 27 (I bet it’s doubled) since the LLL buyout; but it’s not hard for me to see ugly LLLL’s fetching around $100 within a year by looking at it mathematically.

I’m not saying the worst LLLL is worth 1/27 of the worst LLL; I’m saying the LLLL’s have sold out, people are arguing about whether LLLL.net is better than LLLL.info, and the entire LLLL.cn has been taken out of the game. Add this all together with the ever growing internet population and decreasing domain availability; and that’s why I park my tent in camp 5.

It’s just how things work in my brain, and to me there are enough pieces of the puzzle laid out to recognize what the big picture already is.

 

[Alex]

I am very careful when buying.

Especially when buying "random" acronym domains, just like LLLL.com's are.

The number of registered domains grew more than the demand for domains. That is why one has to pay much attention when registering acronym domains.

There is the LLLL.com, the L-L-L.com, the LLL.in, the LL-L.com, the L-LL.com brandable LLLLL.com's and LLLL.net's.

A bit too much. The demand for domain is not that big as the supply now.

Even considering this, I think LLLL.com's are a good investment, even L-L-L.com's I say it because I know how European end users think (who love hyphens).
I think LLL.in is a safe bet on the long run, though it is not that liquid and not that profitable at the moment.

But I stayed away from other acronym domains, just because I do not see the demand for them. 3 or 4 sales a year are not enough to hold 17k names like in the case of L-LL.com's.

LLLL.com's have end user potential, and I think those that have 300 names at least had an end user sale in the past 6 months. That denotes something. It is still not the safest bet, but it is a sustainable one, and one I believe in.

I am a believer of LLLL.com domains, that is why I am in group 4, I don't see them exploding in price just because the supply is still very big. But they will grow, and will return a profit in the short run and the long run too.

I am skeptical about other acronym type of domains though.

Talking about the reseller market though, I would rather buy a LLLL.com than an LLL.biz, or i'd prefer even a quality LLLL.com over an LLL.info. But the reseller market has many anomalies.

 

[geb9696]

I am between camp 2 and 3. I respect what KingDon is saying about this sounding like the LLL.com but there are so many things that also tell me it is different. 27 times more names. That is a huge difference. Also, if you look at the first names registered a bunch were LLL.com names by big companies. I think it is important to remember that with numbers most things are not linear. There are so many reasons why when looking at the price curves on names it is more accurate to use a formula closer to how one would measure population density instead of a linear function. To put this into a better prospective you might want to look at how many companies are listed on the stock exchanges in the US. Now think about how many companies there needs to be to take up all of these domain names. I am not sure about the future of LLLL.com and I hope that I am sitting here in 5 years saying dang I sure missed that boat instead of you guys sitting on huge loses.

 

[hawkeye]

Somewhere between 2-3. I went with 3.

 

[-REECE-]

And that argument is certainly the pinnacle of LLLL.com's future arguments...

The whole debate really centers on supply versus demand -- or more specifically, how elastic (or inelastic) demand is. Therein lies the answer.

There would no doubt be far more endusers for a $100 LLL.com than a $10,000 one. Whether there are more endusers for a $100 LLLL.com than a $10,000 LLL.com is something we'll have to each decide for ourselves at this point. We can follow the trends, analyze sales data, follow the LLL.com market, etc and hopefully this will help us make more informed, calculated risks. In the end though, it's still a risk...

It's one that I'm willing to take.

I am between camp 2 and 3. I respect what KingDon is saying about this sounding like the LLL.com but there are so many things that also tell me it is different. 27 times more names. That is a huge difference. Also, if you look at the first names registered a bunch were LLL.com names by big companies. I think it is important to remember that with numbers most things are not linear. There are so many reasons why when looking at the price curves on names it is more accurate to use a formula closer to how one would measure population density instead of a linear function. To put this into a better prospective you might want to look at how many companies are listed on the stock exchanges in the US. Now think about how many companies there needs to be to take up all of these domain names. I am not sure about the future of LLLL.com and I hope that I am sitting here in 5 years saying dang I sure missed that boat instead of you guys sitting on huge loses.

 

[VURG]

I'd go with camp 4. I wouldn't be suprised if the LLLL.com hit $XXX in 2 years. I think that there are better names for reg fee than LLLL.com with poor letters but they don't have the ready market that LLLL.com has and hence are a more volatile investment.

Good luck with your bold investment Reece.

 

[unclewalter]

I voted #2 even though i am buying a few LLLL's. I only voted #2 because i don't know how LLLL's will turn out, noone does. They could skyrocket or eventually they could be dropping on a daily basis. LLLL.com's are a gamble.

 

[filter]

I voted #2 even though i am buying a few LLLL's. I only voted #2 because i don't know how LLLL's will turn out, noone does. They could skyrocket or eventually they could be dropping on a daily basis. LLLL.com's are a gamble.

well said unclewalter ... I voted #2 as well but honestly have been putting my own money on #4 as a decent bet. Hard to disagree with "the future is uncertain" - but makes sense to me that in the long run there will continue to be decent, probably increasing demand from end-users as well as domainers for the decreasing pool of "reseller" LLLL.com ... whether prices see an increase outpacing annual renewal fees over the next few years is the big question for many - and other investment areas may present more attractive alternatives for the majority of domainers.

So, while personally I'm likely to keep buying quite a few more at prices from 2x up to 10x reg fee over the next year (and in the last 10 days have bought over 50 priced between $12 and $17, and a few at higher prices as well - and have also sold one at $25 and another 4 at $12 in friendly deals to other NPers) ... I wouldn't recommend that anyone buy into LLLL.com at this point unless they have already made their own best effort to understand the forces likely to drive this market, and are comfortable with the bets they are placing. Similarly, I wouldn't recommend that anyone sell the LLLL.com they may be holding just because the market "wind" seems to be blowing in a different in any given week or month. Figure it out for yourselves as best you can, and don't bite off more than you can chew (or renew).

The best advice I can give anyone other than myself is -> don't take any advice from me! (And I don't always strictly follow the advice I try to give to myself either - more often than not seems like I'm mostly following my gut, with my brain just along for the ride!)

The only thing I would recommend to anyone else: whether you are inclined to sell or to buy -> feel free to send me a PM with your offer - I'll at least be interested to know about it, and (when my limited investment funds allow) am happy to do good deals with good people both buying and selling.

And that's one of the reasons I like the LLLL.com market - it's big enough to be interesting, and still small enough to get to know pretty well. Premium generics are out of my price range and really a bit beyond what I'm comfortable dealing with - I'm more likely to overpay for a $xxxx "with traffic" premium.com - and am not really all that excited at the moment with the idea of becoming more familiar with the vagaries of traffic and parking revenue - seems like most people who know what they are doing in this area may have learned a few caveats the hard way before they got it right.

So, if the so-called "low-grade" LLLL.com domains I tend to focus on don't have much in the way of traffic or parking revenue - they're that much simpler for me to understand. It boils down to end-user sales vs renewal fees over the next 5 years, with reseller interest ultimately reflecting the balance between those two factors.

And I'm almost certain I'll be making at least a few mistakes in this market - just keeping in mind that hopefully I'll have the sense to recognize some of them, learn from most of them, and still profit enough from the few good moves I might make by accident or design, enough to make it overall a net gain worth the time & capital invested when it's all said and done with (many years from now).

 

[accent]

Very interesting - most posters claim they picked one of the more conservative choices - but with 58 votes, camp 5>4>3>2>1 - indeed the margin of victory of 5 is larger than that of the others.

Well I will admit for camp 5. I think $100 in two years is an easy mark to reach - indeed (barring major recession, of course) if LLL.coms hit $10,000 as several have speculated in 12 - 16 months (and one would imagine, then, considerably more in 24 months) then 1/26th of the LLL.com value as a minimum for LLLL.coms in two years is --- far more than I dare dream.

But not impossible, folks. The potential is there. And it is more than simply market cap LLL = market cap LLLL.

I expect consolidators to become more active. These are corporations that are looking for simple-to-understand investments that have a good chance of profit. With few LLL.coms available those guys will aim more and more at LLLL.coms.

New investors on this forum are often pointed to LLL.coms because they are more easy to evaluate and more liquid that any other segment of the domain market. As LLL get priced beyond reach that spotlight will naturally fall on LLLL.coms - and IMHO far more than on the other contenders.

I heard on the radio a couple days ago Mastercard announced that online Christmas sales are so far running at 30% over last year's at this time. This level of growth has been steady for quite a while and, while of course it eventually will slow, that time seems well in the future. 30% per year, compounded annually.....

The mobile web is expected to be much larger than the PC web, although that day is well off in the future. Whatever happens with .Mobi, there will surely be a lot of growth in .com of mobile - directed websites. Short domains are a major advantage for tiny keyboards, so there will be a lot of demand for LLLL.com domains in the mobile realm in addition to the PCs.

And the other reason is that Reese is buying all of them, soon there will be none left.

 

[italiandragon]

And the other reason is that Reese is buying all of them, soon there will be none left.

:hehe: :hehe: :hehe:

NO, he`s NOT the only one!

:sold:

 

[Alan Glennon]

I'm in Camp 3 for the next year or two. Then, I can imagine moving to Camp 4.