What is your forecast for the next couple of years when it comes to domaining.

[oldtimer]

What is your forecast for the next couple of years for domaining and what are you doing to adjust to the new landscape of the domain Industry.

It used to be that first tire .com domains were fetching six or even seven figure prices on a regular basis, even second and third tier domains in .com were selling for a hefty sum up to just a couple of years ago. But now it seems like the million dollar sales are all but gone and the average selling price for .coms has fallen to the low to medium four figures.

In my opinion .com is always going to remain popular and most people are probably going to prefer it over all the other alternatives, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average price for keyword .com domains dropping down to the three figure range in the near future especially if some of the big companies start giving away free domains (in their New gTLDs) to their customers and clients as a means of attracting and keeping more visitors.

Even the .com traffic domains that have enjoyed a steady level of traffic in the past might lose some of their value as people start typing in New gTLD combinations out of curiosity instead of the many popular keywords in .com that they have been used to typing before.

At this time I have come to believe that one of the domaining categories that has the best chances going forward even in the new landscape of the domain Industry is Brandable domains especially those that are suitable for broad use and that can be sold in the low to medium four figures.

IMO

What is you forecast for the next couple of years.

 

[urlurl]

i'm just thinking of the bad user experience the multitude of extensions will bring. Not only will they have to remember the domain...but now also try to remember the extension.

 

[oldtimer]

i'm just thinking of the bad user experience the multitude of extensions will bring. Not only will they have to remember the domain...but now also try to remember the extension.

You have a good point here, that’s why that the combinations that are more intuitive might have a better chance.

IMO

 

[DU]

i'm just thinking of the bad user experience the multitude of extensions will bring. Not only will they have to remember the domain...but now also try to remember the extension.

People remember the domain now.

I don't imagine people in the past were like.. .oh no, we have more than Main Street? How will people remember 5th avenue? or 2nd Street?
Do people not find movies, authors, cars AND models... oh my god it's gonna be horrible. I sure hope someone sends a "link" or something.

There are millions of arguments or discussion points.. someone inability to remember a FQN? That ranks somewhere below "what if people forget where they left their laptop/tablet/internet device"

 

[mjnels]

"how will people remember all the TLD's"

they wont. so what? what i find hilarious are people asking this question like it means anything.

but on the other hand, every time they add a new area code for phone numbers i get all flustered cause i had the previous 735 memorized.

 

[eyedomainous]

I think the new gTLD -as 'branded ecosystem' -will offer distinct benefits for consumers (think internet of things), so more will be successful than many domainers think.

Its not always about selling URLs to the public, its more about product tags as branded 'extensions', and, perhaps, digital consumer/product URLs like: JaneDoe.ProductName.GE

These may be sold as part of an extended warranty, and resold by the consumer -like a car title, or virtual Membership Card, complete with service record, manual, free updates, local authorized dealers and service centers, geo-fencing (theft prevention), future discounts, and so on.

In short, the consumer gets next gen benefits. The manufacturer gets customer and product life-cycle data dynamics, including ecosystem authentication protocols that should dramatically reduce counterfeit knock-offs.

 

[Yo]

Well the forecast is simple ".com" will still be king in the future. :bingo:

 

[equity78]

Well its not simple, because those with average .com domains that might fetch say $500 but the owner is holding out for $5,000, may see those names relegated to bargain basement pricing as someone would rather have a one word new tld than a 3 word not many exact searches .com.

I think the key is to price properly, have an understanding of what you own and that 100 times your money is not a bad transaction for a 3 word, not high search number.com or an alt extension. I think alt extension names are really what are going to have the most competition, so take $400 for that .biz or .us because someone may just say no way am I paying x,xxx I will go with .500 choices.

 

[alien51]

someone would rather have a one word new tld than a 3 word not many exact searches .com.

Comparing a one word tld to a 3 word .com, is quite a stretch. That won't compare. But there are many 2-word .com that are brandable enough to compete with a one word in an exotic tld.

And usually, one word domains will get ransacked very quickly. If ever they become available in the aftermarket, would they get priced the same as a $5,000-dollar 2-word .com ??

The thing with being an "early bird" with this new tlds, is that you might spend x,xxx on a tld that is not proven it would take off. Your domain could eventually get trashed like .jobs or .travel.

The 2-word brandable .com could be less risky.

 

[Havela]

The thing with being an "early bird" with this new tlds, is that you might spend x,xxx on a tld that is not proven it would take off.

I agree that from an investor's perspective it is wise to be critical of new gTLDs. Perhaps that is why so many in this discussion talk about which gTLDs - if any - will succeed and/or compete with .com? I never understood why people were discussing this.

The answer is = none. But it doesn't matter.

Unless you own a large company and have a specific plan for your new gTLDs, like Google, I don't think you should invest in any of them. And for an average Nampros hobby-style domainer, the chances of succeeding are way below freezing point. There is no way to predict which, if any, of these extensions are going to make it or become successful.

But to me, that was not what this discussion was about. The questions was what the future holds for domaining. And I think the launch of the new gTLDs - together with other technical development that we are already seeing - will change the Internet landscape forever in the sense that domaining will become a quaint notion of the past. It was a very limited industry created by a temporary lack of a specific product due to unevolved technology. This industry has already peaked, I think everybody agrees on that. It had its heyday when the need for websites exploded, the only extension people knew about was .com and type-ins still were in vogue.

Eventually, I think all extensions will lose their value.There will be no more type-ins, even the possibility to do type-ins will probably disappear. Then it won't matter what the extension is. We will have to rely completely on search engines to bring the good results to the top, and a quality website will be whatever Google, or some search engine, brings to its first page. Google algorithms will decide what is quality. The notion of quality extensions will land on history's scrap heap together with airship travel and smoking cures sore throats. Perhaps we will only see the website name in search results - not the url. We might perhaps not even be informed of the exact url, including extension, of the website we are visiting.

Besides, the OP wasn't only about gTLDs, but the future of domaining in general. And imo all technology is pulling in the same direction -> limiting the perceived shortage of quality domain names. The only reason why there is still a secondary market is that people's perception hasn't caught up with the technology yet. But if Google starts pushing free or cheap domains and hosting and remove the ability to see extensions, then they will. It is only a matter of time.

 

[elmoney]

We know about Ws, Bz, name, mobi, cc, travel, aero, pw and also these new dot anything will not be successful. I think that GTLDs - com, net, org will remain as king zones within 10 years.

 

[mjnels]

Comparing a one word tld to a 3 word .com, is quite a stretch. That won't compare. But there are many 2-word .com that are brandable enough to compete with a one word in an exotic tld.

And usually, one word domains will get ransacked very quickly. If ever they become available in the aftermarket, would they get priced the same as a $5,000-dollar 2-word .com ??

The thing with being an "early bird" with this new tlds, is that you might spend x,xxx on a tld that is not proven it would take off. Your domain could eventually get trashed like .jobs or .travel.

The 2-word brandable .com could be less risky.

nah, there will likely be good single keywords openly sitting available for registration.

its probably not going to be necessary to spend $x,xxx on a new TLD domain when the user can just register the domain themselves.

you checked whats available in .travel lately? TONS of relevant single words sitting waiting to be registered. so contrary to what most domainers think right now a bunch of stuff will probably be sitting available to register in a 1,000+ TLD world.

 

[Havela]

We know about Ws, Bz, name, mobi, cc, travel, aero, pw and also these new dot anything will not be successful. I think that GTLDs - com, net, org will remain as king zones within 10 years.

I agree that none of the new gTLDs will be 'successful', sorry if I wasn't clear on that. However, I think talk of successful or valuable extensions will become meaningless in the future.

Wrt .ws, .bz and others, we are now in an interim phase where alternative gTLDs are still so few that it is possible to maintain a perception that .com is more 'quality' than the others.

But this will change when there are hundreds of new gTLDs and large Internet companies like Google decide that extension should not matter - or perhaps even be visible - anymore. The fact that .com signifies quality is an entirely construed notion based on previous shortage and massive population of this particular extension. There is no inherent quality in the extension itself, it is just a technical feature. And any value that is construed might lose its worth at any time when reality changes.

Besides, prices are already declining, I don't think anybody disagrees with that? Domain prices peaking in the late 00s. Should not that fact alone be considered a sign about the general future of the industry?

[Now I almost feel bad for being such a killjoy. :blink: I actually love domaining and domainers, but that doesn't change the fact that I think the best is behind us.]

 

[mjnels]

quality posts Havela. peoples brains are not there yet... most are thinking like this:

A.) no new TLD will be "valuable" so therefore .COM will still be worth a ton of money and not decline.

people actually believe in this whole idea of a TLD "gaining traction" (or not gaining) in this new 1,000+ TLD world... which is the OLD WAY of thinking. forget about the idea of a certain TLD "taking off" or .web being "one of the better ones"

that is domainer talk. it aint gonna be like that. its simply two words separated by a dot... domainers looking for a TLD to gain "trust" or "traction" are going to laugh at themselves in 10 years for thinking so small and not realizing when the shift started.

 

[carob]

I actually think .com - as a USA identifier - and country code domains will still be what most people want to see because they tell them the site is relevant to them. For this reason I can see some new geo extensions such as .delhi being very successful.

Big .coms I see losing value because for less money you can just create your own extension. Also it may become expected of big companies to have a .companyname extension set up - companies who do not have that will be seen as being not prosperous or informed enough to have a proper name, a bit like people who now use crappy domain names for their business. But no small company or group can afford its own extension so they will still want domain names that people trust and remember, but for less money when there is so much more choice.

 

[Kate]

Eventually, I think all extensions will lose their value.There will be no more type-ins, even the possibility to do type-ins will probably disappear. Then it won't matter what the extension is. We will have to rely completely on search engines to bring the good results to the top, and a quality website will be whatever Google, or some search engine, brings to its first page. Google algorithms will decide what is quality.

As long as businesses will advertise their brands (that is their URLs), there will be type-in.
But as I have often said, there has to be critical mass. The other day I saw a commercial for egypt.travel on TV. But rest assured that awareness of .travel among consumers is still virtually nil.
OK now I know that a URL can end with .travel, that doesn't mean I want one.

Besides, the OP wasn't only about gTLDs, but the future of domaining in general. And imo all technology is pulling in the same direction -> limiting the perceived shortage of quality domain names. The only reason why there is still a secondary market is that people's perception hasn't caught up with the technology yet. But if Google starts pushing free or cheap domains and hosting and remove the ability to see extensions, then they will. It is only a matter of time.

Personally I wouldn't want to depend on the ranking of google or a competitor, that's why it's necessary to diversify sources of traffic.
Relying on SEO alone is blindness. Like setting up your primary online presence on facebook or myspace or other closed ecosystems... it means you are no longer in control of your business.
IMO you are putting to much faith in a .mobi backing company.

Besides, prices are already declining, I don't think anybody disagrees with that? Domain prices peaking in the late 00s. Should not that fact alone be considered a sign about the general future of the industry?

It's quite relative.
Good domains always command good prices. But the cream of domain names have changed hands a few times, eventually they are acquired by end users and are no longer on the market. The supply of available quality domain names is drying out.
It's true that the reseller market crashed years ago. But that doesn't mean domain names have become worthless. Simply put there is no market for guano domains. Good domains sell for themselves.
When my accountant tells me the market for domain names has vanished - I will get over it. I wouldn't look at it like a zero sum game.

Back to the topic, I think ccTLDs will continue to soar, making the case for new extensions obsolete and irrelevant. They are 15 years too late imo.
I predict that ccTLDs will get an unexpected boost from issues of sovereignty becoming more acute, possibly resulting in a split DNS root which is bad news for everyone.

I think the fixation with new extensions is quite American... :imho:
Consumers are already more or less aware that many extensions do exist, that is not the problem. The fact that awareness about a TLD such as .info is still so low after a decade tells me one thing:
- we already have too many extensions
- consumers are not eager to embrace a lot of new or existing extensions

 

[carob]

I think the fixation with new extensions is quite American... :imho:
Consumers are already more or less aware that many extensions do exist, that is not the problem. The fact that awareness about a TLD such as .info is still so low after a decade tells me one thing:
- we already have too many extensions
- consumers are not eager to embrace a lot of new or existing extensions

Agree. I meet plenty of people who only want a .co.uk even when the .com is free - they want to be clearly identifiable as a business in a particular country.

 

[mjnels]

As long as businesses will advertise their brands (that is their URLs), there will be type-in.
But as I have often said, there has to be critical mass. The other day I saw a commercial for egypt.travel on TV. But rest assured that awareness of .travel among consumers is still virtually nil.
OK now I know that a URL can end with .travel, that doesn't mean I want one.

thats because the commercial wasnt designed to make you "aware" or want the .travel TLD for yourself... it was designed to advertise a website. thats it.

add 1,000 more cases like you just described and suddenly people will be *aware* that .anything exists and realize that associating *trust* with a TLD was always a silly idea.

 

[Havela]

I don't want to repeat myself, but to address a few of your points:

As long as businesses will advertise their brands (that is their URLs), there will be type-in.

I'm not so sure they will continue to advertise their url's, especially if url's do not show in search engines.

But as I have often said, there has to be critical mass.

Now you are talking about the success of individual extensions. I'm not talking about that.

IMO you are putting to much faith in a .mobi backing company.

In my opinion it is not exactly a question of faith. Google currently controls over 90 per cent of the search market and has for a long long time. It is undeniably the number one decisive factor for being seen on the Internet. However, my views do not depend on what search engine is in vogue, I think the same thing will happen with whatever search engine currently rules the market.

Nevertheless, since you mentioned .mobi, all large (and small companies) make good and bad business decisions. Google has a large scrapheap of discontinued products already. They also have some immense success stories, and I don't think the fact that Google once backed .mobi will matter one jot with respect to what is going to happen to domaining.

It's true that the reseller market crashed years ago. But that doesn't mean domain names have become worthless. Simply put there is no market for guano domains. Good domains sell for themselves.

That is the situation today. But this thread is about what we think will happen to domaining in the future, and it should not be limited to a discussion of the successes of the new gTLDs although naturally they factor into a discussion about the future.

Perhaps we are discussing different things, or at least different times. I am talking about how I think the world will be in 10 - 15 years from now, not today, not in two years, and not in five years. I see that the OP was originally asking for our views about the situation in a couple of years, so maybe I'm slightly off topic. If we take the two-year perspective, then I agree with you, not much will have changed.

 

[oldtimer]

Perhaps we are discussing different things, or at least different times. I am talking about how I think the world will be in 10 - 15 years from now, not today, not in two years, and not in five years. I see that the OP was originally asking for our views about the situation in a couple of years, so maybe I'm slightly off topic. If we take the two-year perspective, then I agree with you, not much will have changed.

You are welcomed to also discuss the future of domaining from the long term perspective as long as you clearly indicate how far in the future you are talking about.

And as you have correctly indicated this thread is not just about New gTLDs, it's about the future of domaining as a whole (although we all agree that New gTLDs will play an important role in shaping what’s to come).

 

[NPer]

I'm not so sure they will continue to advertise their url's, especially if url's do not show in search engines.

Perhaps for the very same reason they do so now. The "future of domaining" means business won't advertise? Commercials on TV and printed media is not going to exist? No one is going to sponsor/advertise at huge sporting events? Billboards, etc?

If end-users are large and serious enough about their prospects, of course they will advertise!

Google currently controls over 90 per cent of the search market and has for a long long time. It is undeniably the number one decisive factor for being seen on the Internet..

That number is undeniably incorrect and grossly over-exaggerated.

http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Pr...Releases_May_2013_U.S._Search_Engine_Rankings

As at May 2013:

- Googles share of online searches/services is at 66.7%. (This is the best it's ever been for them to date).

- Bing is also doing well at 17.4%

 

[Havela]

Perhaps for the very same reason they do so now. The "future of domaining" means business won't advertise? Commercials on TV and printed media is not going to exist? No one is going to sponsor/advertise at huge sporting events? Billboards, etc?

If end-users are large and serious enough about their prospects, of course they will advertise!

Yes, of course they will advertise. I was only talking about whether they would include their url in the advertising. For example, already today we see some companies use "search for xxxxx" instead of their url. Imo companies will rely less and less on type-ins. They will market their brand, and the url does not have be part of that brand.

That number is undeniably incorrect and grossly over-exaggerated.

Sorry about that, my bad. And Bing is increasing, good for them.

But this does not affect my point. As said above, I think this will happen regardless of what search engine is currently in vogue. The development is not google-reliant in any way, imo.

 

[JB Lions]

GoDaddy has a landing page now for the new extensions, 700+ haha crazy

"NOTE: Keep in mind, we might not sell all of the gTLDs listed on the landing page. The “watch” feature gives us a sense of what you’re interested in and what we should sell. We’re taking your needs and market appeal into consideration before we make any final decisions. We’ll keep you updated about the domains we choose to move forward with."

http://www.godaddy.com/tlds/gtld.aspx?ci=80240

 

[accent]

With great timing for this thread, Domainnamewire has just posted part of a recent trademark application from Google:

IC 036. US 100 101 102. G & S: Financial services, namely, providing financial transaction processing services by electronic means via the Internet and other computer networks in the field of electronic fund transfer and payment processing services; brokerage and escrow services relating to the purchase and sale of domain names, web sites and Internet based businesses; financial management services for electronic delivery, processing and transfer of funds, payments, financial transactions and financial information via the Internet and other computer networks; financial analyses, namely, financial valuation of domain names; domain name valuation services

This seems to open the possibility of Google walled garden extensions:
1. Register an available domain for free, with free hosting and included advertisements
2. You can buy rights to the name without ads and use your own host.
3. You can park and sell the domain, but only via Google's own parking/aftermarket.

What Google plans to do with its gTLDs is the central issue of the next two years. If Google wants to control the whole domain market then that battle will rage for five or ten years.

 

[urlurl]

google must be careful not to control to much or they will see the gov't involved if its viewed as being anti-competitive.

 

[JB Lions]

I think we need some sort of recruitment drive, to get some new domainers into the business. Gotta find somebody to reg domains in all these new extensions.

.co and .me are represented by number of characters in A. New extensions in B.

A. cm (2)

B. apu3e0tdko48djh34ke843kajslijai4jqw49i4890vajw4q4[98ef;jkdq327495rbl0842tvsblkmlxjsbjr348i7t948vnlsa8yg409ohan8y4'a84ghifsj0eaurikfj0eurgirjdfjiu0b9ure90ud09ffbaofiboifjuboisjhoaiuhbopay9re8oiszjhobihoiahjoisahjoirhjboih480434874u4n4n0v8u0349ut34n0u40u0df0940844j09840987v04f09u40bjspjbrep9u09bufd4807r874=34fsoy34kjv03jiv0842igkp09784t34jh908uvi42l3nv098u43298jv08748923nv08u4j34y984u089usoij4840s[400vuo23ifdkk398vj32909uu-4-9u34u3q4u34uu43u43ugb74n49u9dnnvds;34932t5bvj230vuf9e99bas[34020gu0p[a[q=t3jh094jdf09bu4vbjp9ui5409u9hu09eur094uojv094809kgpudjo4e8i739jdlj0984jakdjf094u09t4iaj9d0u09f4u948u09ua90u094u09390u309u90u09049ajc09u90390uc900303u0u09u0f93u03uxj098409uc309309u309098x09830f9833 (700+)

"We’ll keep you updated about the domains we choose to move forward with."

Do you think that could be a make it or break it for a lot of these extensions? Not being available at GoDaddy would be a pretty big hit I would imagine. Being available in the drop down would be nice, or course it would be an endless scroll now.