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What gTLD failed you? For example, you stocked up for nothing.

Labeled as discuss in gTLD Discussion started by Tin Nguyen, Oct 18, 2019.

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  1. JB Lions

    JB Lions Top Member VIP

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    Those are numbers gone over before based on the blog that looks at startups, old threads all over that section. I remember what you just linked to as well. I remember pointing out .io was 9% and .ai was 5%. ai alone was beating all the new gtlds combined. Think about that. And feel free to pick any keyword you want, I don't expect the results to be much different. So 2% from that one blog that looks at startups, 4% to what you just linked to, so we have 2% - 4%. That's not good. Every piece of data that looks at the overall/big picture is not showing a great future. Thanks for helping me make my point.

    Here is my post in that thread you just linked to:

     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
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  2. manpreet

    manpreet Established Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    For me, it was .fun (don't think anyone even remember that one!)
     
  3. henrypcyeung

    henrypcyeung Established Member

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    Sorry that I still don't understand your purpose of showing your data. You tried to show the data to support that new gtlds are not on the rise, but you did not compare new gtld adoptions over different periods (e.g. year 2018 vs year 2017, year 2017 vs year 2016). I cannot see any logic that comparing new gtld adoptions with adoptions of other extensions in a year to draw a conclusion that new gtlds are not on the rise.

    Also, most of the startups on the list were tech related, so it is reasonable that there were more .io and .ai adoptions than new gtlds adoptions. This also explains why .com adoptions significantly dropped from 86.45% in 2016 to 66.23% in 2018. In non-tech startups, new gtld adoptions were more than .io and .ai adoptions.
     
  4. JB Lions

    JB Lions Top Member VIP

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    The 2% I wast talking about was from DNGeek's blog - https://www.namepros.com/threads/the-future-of-com-after-new-gtlds-boom-big-drop.987820/page-14#post-5879684

    I did show data they're not on the rise, in terms of regs and sales.
    https://ntldstats.com/
    https://www.namepros.com/blog/recent-new-extension-sales-outliers-or-trends.1159101/

    I tried a keyword test, the keywords I tried 1 out of the last 200. Again, you pick some keywords, try it out.
    https://namebio.com/

    I pointed to the forum here at NP that has daily sales, go take a look. Most recent one:
    Market Stats for October 20th, 2019
    https://www.namepros.com/threads/bps-com-sold-for-51-000-biodesign-com-for-7-099.1159635/

    gTLDs - 222
    ccTLDs - 6
    New gTLDs - 1..........this isn't good

    It's not just looking at 1 aspect, but whatever is available. If you see the above as a sign of a bright future, I don't know what to tell you.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
  5. henrypcyeung

    henrypcyeung Established Member

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    Thanks for your links. The links you provided indeed tell a story that is different from your view.

    https://ntldstats.com/
    • 2019-10-23: 26,747,547 > 2018-10-23: 25,499,465
    • In terms of reg volume, it shows an upward trend over the past year.
    https://namebio.com/ & https://www.namepros.com/blog/recent-new-extension-sales-outliers-or-trends.1159101/
    • We cannot do a full-year comparison as 2019 has not ended yet. But, from the current data available:
      • 2019 YTD average price: $4,025 > 2018 full year average price: $3,847
      • Projected number of sales in 2019 is less than number of actual sales in 2018.
      • 2019 YTD standard deviation: $13k < 2018 full year standard deviation: $22.1k
      • In terms of sales, the new gtld sales market may focus more on good-quality domains.
    • Some sellers report their sales regularly (e.g. quarterly, semiannually or annually), which may greatly affect any results in 2019 year end.
    • If you want to better reflect the world's situation, you have to include sales in China, which is one of the largest domain markets. Namebio is lack of such sales data.
    • Unless both number of sales and average price keep decreasing over a few years, we cannot conclude that new gtlds are dying.

    I want to emphasize again that hot keywords are not everything in the game of new gtlds. Perfect match between keyword and extension is the key. Also, looking at data of a single point of time cannot make any trend patterns, let alone predict future.
     
  6. JB Lions

    JB Lions Top Member VIP

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    I posted steady. It was at a high around 26.5 last year, it's 26.7. We're at the leveling off stage, what happens before it usually drops.

    The rest of your post just backs up mine, gathered from Bob's blog post:

    "Projected number of sales in 2019 is less than number of actual sales in 2018."

    That's not good.

    Then with the keywords, you mention hot keywords, pick any one you want. You didn't touch that.

    Didn't touch the daily sales at NP. Because this:

    gTLDs - 222
    ccTLDs - 6
    New gTLDs - 1..........this isn't good

    isn't a good look either

    Didn't touch .ai beating all the new gtlds combined or 2%-4% being low.

    etc.

    This section is brutal - https://www.namepros.com/forums/daily-domain-sales.383/

    Most of the days look like what I posted above. New gtlds getting 0 or 1 sale.

    1
    0
    0
    2
    0

    last 5 reports
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
  7. henrypcyeung

    henrypcyeung Established Member

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    1. Daily Ups and downs are common. There were highs and lows for .com as well. So what we should look at is TRENDS. There was an upward trend from Oct 2018 to Jan 2019, then gradually down until Jun 2019 (but sill higher than Oct 2018), then upward trend again to a new high of the past 2 years.

    2. Please don't selectively look at few of my sentences that make you feel comfortable and ignore all other important info that make you feel bad. Projected number of sales in 2019 is less than 2018, but higher average price and lower standard deviation than 2018. It may indicate that the new gtld sales market focuses more on good-quality domains.

    3. Regarding keyword, I emphasized several times that perfect match between keyword and extension is the key for ngtlds, not just to consider keyword alone. So picking any keywords is meaningless and not very relevant.

    4. Regarding daily sales on NP, again I emphasized several times that looking at data of a single date is useless to predict future. Also, there were 5 ngtld sales on Oct 2 and Oct 7 respectively according to Namebio. Does it look better then?

    5. I mentioned that .ai beat ngtlds because there were more tech startups (especially AI field) than non-tech startups. Among non-tech startups, ngtlds beat .ai.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
  8. JB Lions

    JB Lions Top Member VIP

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    1. I guess you still don't know what the word steadying means - https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=define:steadying+out

    2. Talk about projecting. Still number of sales projected to be lower, that's what I said. Average price higher, ok.

    3. That's just a flat out cop out. Pick the word shoes. Is the word shoes not in new gtlds? 3 out of the last 100, that's low - https://namebio.com/?s==IDN4QTO4MjM

    4. You mention looking at data of a single date......then give 2, when I gave the last 5. 5 >2 last time I checked. And no, 5 still doesn't look better, that's still low. Now average them for the month if you want. Probably will be less than 2.

    5. With this "Among non-tech startups, ngtlds beat .ai" haha, are you serious. There are hundreds of new gtlds. Hundreds beating 1 is impressive?
     
  9. henrypcyeung

    henrypcyeung Established Member

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    1. I know what steady means, but obviously there was an overall upward trend over the past 2 years.

    2. What I want to say is that looking at sales volume alone without looking at average price makes you have a wrong picture. Your arguments completely ignored the price factor and other important statistics.

    3. I guess you read some posts before on NP about top 10 keywords lists for .com and .net. The lists for .com are different from that for .net. So do you think it is fair to put random keywords or hot keywords for .com to evaluate ngtlds? Each new gtld should have its own keyword list. That's why randomly selecting some keywords to evaluate ngtlds is totally worthless. If you want to know which keywords match which ngtlds, you can search for the high ngtld sales in Namebio to get some ideas.

    4. I mentioned it is pointless to look at data of a single date to predict future. Using one-week data is also ridiculous to predict future as it is too short. I agree that it does not look good that there are a few or no sales on each day, but if you consider the sales price as well, it looks super great as the average price of ngtlds ($4,025) is much greater than that of .com ($1,335) in 2019 YTD. Please also consider the price as well. I cannot think of any investors who invest without considering price factor.

    5. Comparing .ai to ngtlds is like comparing apple to orange. It is wrong to compare ngtlds which is mainly for non-tech purposes to .ai which is mainly for tech purposes. For examples, media companies use ngtlds such as .media, .news and .live rather than .ai. For tech companies, they use .ai and .io rather than ngtlds.
     
  10. JayT

    JayT Restricted (DM)

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    Let's not forget FRANK SHILLING had increased prices by 1000% and he has 10's of 1000's drop from zone in an instant, across his ntlds. The shady crap the very registries are doing to 'fool' you into "ntld is failing" (while they invest) needs be accounted for too. It's called ZONE stuffing, and frank really LET LOOSE not long ago.
     
  11. HotKey

    HotKey Made in Canada VIP

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    Yep and can get them on closeouts all day long (biz's, info)
    These comparisons have been discussed before, blanketing the new extensions with the same outlook as those past ones. It makes sense to heed, but I don't let it dominate my choices in strong pairings.

    and @Joe Nichols you asked for some meat here's mine:

    I have about 200 new gTLDs. Average renewals are about $10/year.

    My gTLD inquires are not down they are up, this year at about 30. Out of those, about 5 of them being for the same names as previous years. The last four years, my gTLD sales have remained the same, they range from 3-5/year and selling between 1-5k. This year I am at 3 sales, selling between 1-5k. Like Wolf, I tend to reject XXX offers on names that, frankly, I worked hard to acquire so deserve much more. And they will get it. I do have names that are listed for low xxx on my site, have not sold one, ever.

    Zero outbound, no third-party marketplace listings. All my work has gone into developing my own showcase site. I believe with a proper foundation, is when you start to expand and explore more aggressively.

    I am not driven by past sales results when it comes to new G's. I am driven by strong combinations and what they can do to represent a person or business, whether it be bricks and mortar or online or both. I don't need previous sales data to tell me what to do. My hustle is the love of a good name, no matter the extension. The name's lifespan in my portfolio is based on numerous factors:

    - has my outlook on its usage viability changed, regardless of keyword strength?
    - is the domain still as strong as I believed it was when I first acquired it?
    - am I seeing real-world usage, and if not, why? Can this change? Can I help drive this change?
    - will my year-over-year renewal rates be worth eating if the name flops in the end?

    Generally I look to the extension itself and its demographic potential/popularity along with brand viability, with renewals playing a large part because I like to have a diverse spread, and having all my capital tied up in $100+ renewals would negatively affect that option. Not to mention I was never a fan of supporting the premium pricing tiers. And as @lolwarrior likes to preach, finding a strong name that you can secure for many years in advance I think is well worth the risk because it really gives the name time to percolate for the right buyer.

    My heart and soul has been put into my portfolio site (if you don't already know genuine.domains), I think there is evidence of how a new G can be taken advantage of to represent yourself. If you don't like it than maybe its not your cup of tea, but I recommend keeping an open mind to an evolving world, sometimes people surprise you.

    I think all the twists and turns people put onto .coms can get awfully boring and silly, regardless of whether they sell. The names I invest in are names I would stand behind to use for my own. I mean, if we're willing to take risks on regging tens if not hundreds of names in .com that you will end up dropping 99% of them in a year, why not branch out and try something worthwhile that you'll stand behind enough to renew, because you stand behind the name?

    **

    @JB Lions I was disappointed to your hinting at "marketing" as if I'm a chump. Thanks. For clarification, "slow and steady rise" was in reference to usage, ie websites, discussions, etc.

    Real world usage in my eyes is a driving force in new Gtlds becoming a more common commodity, not sales data. Why? Because sales data is skewed by domainer to domainer results, and doesn't necessarily equate to an end user footing.
     
  12. Joe Nichols

    Joe Nichols Common sense consultant VIP

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    @HotKey - Thanks! I'm sure a lot of members will really appreciate this. Great to get a bit of a look into some of the real numbers of a ngTLD portfolio.

    Would it be okay to request more detail? What I'm mainly curious about (and probably many members) is if it's currently financially viable to maintain a portfolio of ngTLD names. Specifically, it would be great to know:
    • Your total dollar investment in ngTLDs since you began purchasing them
    • Your total revenue from sales to date
    • Year over year net profit (sales minus commission, renewals, and purchases) so we can see if there's a micro-trend in your own portfolio
    You seem to have a well thought out approach to your investing, so I think these specifics would be a great measure of what others could expect from their own ngTLD portfolios.

    Of course I know none of this would take into account potential future growth and popularity (which most ngTLD investors are banking on), but it would be a great starting point.
     
  13. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Major part of "hot keywords" is excluded by registries from regular aftermarket...
    And yearly fee on those names can be even in 5F range...
    We compare apples and oranges...
     
  14. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I didn't the precise calculation...
    But I clearly see that my nTLD income as of today is at least 2-2.5 times higher than my investments/expenses.
     
  15. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    What ROI with "Premiums" - I don't know...
    Never heavily invested in this category.
     
  16. artstar

    artstar Restricted (85-100%)

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    HMM this post reads like a nerd convention with all this stat crap lol!
     
  17. biggie

    biggie Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    .pizza failed me

    I had a vegetarian.pizza ...but it looked better than it tasted

    :)


    imo...
     
  18. Brands.International

    Brands.International formerly lolwarrior Gold Account VIP

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    Very well said. And nicely designed website and some great names @HotKey, I think you redesigned it sice I last looked few months ago .. I like the new design a lot! :)
     
  19. JB Lions

    JB Lions Top Member VIP

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    By itself, it is marketing, "something is on the rise", unless it's defined. You said inquiries up but sales "The last four years, my gTLD sales have remained the same" Last 4 years the same, steady, not on the rise.

    Let me drill down 2 points, so it's easier. First, go back to Daily Sales, last one:

    gTLDs - 262
    ccTLDs - 48
    New gTLDs - 1 ----------- For something on the rise, this should be more active. There shouldn't be 0, 1, low single digit days. This should be rolling. Look at it.

    -------------------
    Keywords, people keep mentioning "hot keywords"

    I picked 2 hot keywords simply because they were hot, meaning there should be activity. Cannabis and Crypto. Again last 200 reported sales, 1 sale. Where is the activity? So I picked a general keyword shoes, I said go ahead and pick whatever you want. Shoes 3 out of the last 100. Where is the activity? Which leads to Henry's post:

    I understand the point you're trying to make, most of these new gtlds are niche extensions, only certain keywords are going to make sense. However, .com is 1 general extension, any keyword can work with it. New gtlds also have some general extensions. .xyx, .online, .website, .site, .gdn, etc. some are iffy but all kinds of general extensions. Still where is that action? The keywords I used, or any one you pick can work with a general new gtld extension. Take shoes, that works with many niche extensions as well, many of them.

    And when I pick a keyword, it's not just that keyword, it's that keyword somewhere in the domain. Not just shoes.xzy, you can use the same keywords you find with .com. buyshoes.xyz, basketballshoes.xyz etc.

    Where is the action? It's not showing up.
     
  20. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Regarding "general extensions" like .online
    "Hot keywords" in .online start from ~$600 and up to ~$30K YEARLY...
    Example: LosAngeles.online
     
  21. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    One-time premium fee only in .club and .top
    In "general extensions" category.
     
  22. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    And prior that deal happened - I was firstly asked: what is renewal fee?
    So this factor is a decision making factor for majority of endusers.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
  23. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    And regarding Daily Sales...
    If 95%+ of SELLERS are selling legacy TLDs - then definitely this legacy volume will look like mentioned above.
    No surprise here.
     
  24. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO ICA Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    .COM has about 130M+ registrations.
    The new GTLD have about 27M+ registrations.

    Statistically there are 20%+ as many new gTLD as .COM in registration volume.
    They are far below that in any actual sales metric from sales volume to total dollar amount.

    The .COM volume is far higher because there is more actual demand.

    Brad
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
  25. Jurgen Wolf

    Jurgen Wolf Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    .COM aftermarket is functioning WITHOUT Verisign participation.
    No any reservations, no any premium fees yearly. Absolutely open and competitive aftermarket.
    And again: we are comparing apples and oranges...
     

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