Value in Naïve Appraisal Advice

[DomainMart]

A number of domain name forums, including this one, offer “appraisal by peers” services. Although such advice can be characterized as naïve, it is useful. However, such appraisals are not a substitute for professional appraisal reports.

On the surface, peer appraisal advice sounds biased, as owners of domain names have an incentive to over-state value, while potential buyers prefer a depressed market. Moreover, appraisal postings tend to be few, even when some forums provide incentives to members to post opinions. Under such circumstances, making inferences about statistical characteristics of naïve appraisal data – without making heuristic assumptions about its probability distribution – is futile. Nevertheless, there is experimental evidence that naïve advice is valuable and tends to be followed.

Andrew Schotter has examined experimental evidence and postulates that “subjects learn better when they give advice, and that advice is therefore worth listening to. [Moreover], a person receiving advice must contemplate whether or not to follow it, and this process may also foster learning.” Furthermore, Shcotter adds that “advice tends to be followed, [and] changes behavior.”[1]

I look at the value evidence in naïve appraisals as analogues to stock market analysts’ stock picking. Although there isn’t a consistently superior stock picker,[2] analysts, in aggregate, make the market more informationally efficient.

This efficiency, however, does not imply that naïve advice is a substitute for expert appraisal advice, especially for pricey domain names. Moreover, an experts’ appraisal can provide a sold basis for negotiations between buyers and sellers, as an expert appraisal’s report should point out the sources of value creation and the associated risk. For example, in the art market, which is more subjective than domain names, the evidence suggests that “art experts provide extremely accurate predictions of market prices.”[3]

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[1]Andrew Schotter, “Decision Making with Naïve Advice,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 93, 2, May 2003, p. 201.

[2]There may be few exceptions such as Warren Buffet!

[3] Orley Ashenfelter and Karthryn Draddy, “Auctions and the Price of Art,” Journal of Economic Literature, XLI, September 2003, p. 765.


Alex Tajirian

 

[equity78]

Professional DOMAIN appraisals there is an oxymoron. AND who made DOMAIN MART an expert except for of course DOMAIN MART.

 

[gazzip]

Professional DOMAIN appraisals there is an oxymoron. .

So True !

 

[TopSatelliteRadio.co]

It really comes down to what you can get for it from a specific person looking for a domain at a specific time.

 

[sm]

The thing to consider is that if you're expecting someone on the forums to assign a numerical value (or a range of values) to quantify the $$-value of a domain name, you'll probably have to take into consideration the experince of the person making the appraisal. Also, it's often much more useful to simply ask something like:
How do you like the domain for such and such a purpose? Do you likie it ? Do you think it would be a nice fit for such and such a site ? These are more useful questions to ask on a forum, because with this you can actually expect some honest well thought out answers, instead of self-proclaimed experts blabbering out mindless numbers.
Also, dont forget that on a forum where you have a lot of domain traders, the appraisals will be more in keeping with the re-sale value of a domain rather than what an end-user would be willing to pay for it.

Finally, any and all appraisals are more like "consolations" (you can console yourself with them)..... if you cant sell a domain, you would be inclined to have it appraised, to give you a reason to hold on to a domain that is just not selling.... because after all good domains dont need appraisals.. they sell themselves

 

[gazzip]

It really comes down to what you can get for it from a specific person looking for a domain at a specific time.

Appraisals - should be called Guestimates instead :hehe:

 

[.X.]

I look at valuations here as a way to more see how others perceive a name,Not what they put in $'s on it,It gives me a good feel for how people outside the forum will look at it,It takes research to complete a valuation and give an opinion,More than just googling the name aswell.But valuations are merely an opinion,I oppose paid valuations because they are going to tell a person thier name is far worth more than it really is,After all,They do want people to return for valuations.A name is only worth as much as someone will pay for it,When i put up a name up in the appraisel section,I look for specific members opinions as they are more valuable to me.The appraisel forum here does serve it's purpose and is a nice way to see how others perceive your name.I most usually do my own valuations,I research my name well,Look at the market trend for the niche of the name.Then that gives me a ball park idea of what the name might possibly sell for if i were to sell.