Average sale prices on eBay during September were up against August's average. This is the third consecutive monthly price rise. Here's an analysis of trends over the past 11 months. As always, I've excluded domains selling for more than $100 as I consider them outliers on eBay. All averages below are based on trendlines calculated from weekly figures, so smoothing out irregularities.
Over the past 11 months mean prices fell at an average rate of about $1.41 a month, a total of $15.49 over the period. The trend showed a drop from $23.08 to $7.59, which is a drop of 101% based on the midpoint.
Over the past 6 months mean prices fell at an average rate of about $0.76 a month.
Over the past 3 months mean prices
rose at an average rate of about $1.48 a month.
Monthly means were -
November $23.25
December $20.14
January $21.41
February $20.13
March $17.47
April $14.83
May $13.39
June $8.57
July $8.61
August $9.09
September $11.98
Average remaining registration fell over the 11-month period. This fall accounts for about 32 cents of the monthly price drop, bringing the effective price drop down to about $1.09 a month.
Average domain quality also fell over the 11-month period. This fall accounts for about 8 cents of the monthly price drop, bringing the effective price drop down to about $1.01 a month.
Here are the percentile trends for the 11-month period -
The 5th percentile fell from $9.89 to -$0.30, a drop of 212% based on the midpoint.
The 25th percentile fell from $13.22 to $2.21, a drop of 143% based on the midpoint.
The 50th percentile fell from $18.60 to $5.05, a drop of 115% based on the midpoint.
The 75th percentile fell from $28.17 to $8.85, a drop of 104% based on the midpoint.
The 95th percentile fell from $53.18 to $28.48, a drop of 61% based on the midpoint.
It's clear from the above that, although prices fell at all levels, the impact was felt most on lower quality domains and/or those with short remaining registration.
Three consecutive monthly price rises look quite encouraging. But before we get carried away, it's sobering to think that these increases still haven't made up for the massive drop between May and June.
Finally, here's what tetrapak said on Saturday about quad-premium prices -
FACT, the market has bottomed out in JUNE/JULY, since then the quads are rising 5%+ per month.
Note the similarity between tetrapak's conclusion based on quad-premiums and my figures based on lower-end domains up to triple-premium-with-no-bad.