DomainMagnate said:
the toughest times for LLLL.com's are behind - when it was a year after the buyout and lots of drops, so since we're past that I think there is little chance they will be free again any soon. In fact drops should even increse in quality on average.
I think drop quality has increased, it is just a timing thing really, we'll seeing low quality drops again at the end of the year.
Just look at some of the sales going through and you can see the toughest times are not behind us,
XVWK.com $3.30 01-Nov-09
YZVP.com $5.75 18-Jan-10
XVJL.com $5.91 01-Nov-09
XFVT.com $5.60 18-Jan-10
VWQT.com $6.50 14-Jan-10
Those are the kinds of names that would have sold for similar prices before that $8 renewal was added late last year/early this year. People have renewed names for a year and effectively thrown that money against the wall. The names above are worth a negative amount after you take out the value of the remaining renewal.
What we are seeing now has the potential to be tipping point in my view. Whether the buyout holds or not will be determined by
prices in my view. If they aren't worth selling people will let them drop. In the past most of the drops were accidental/people not paying much attention etc, the new risk is deliberate drops because the names just have no value.
Don't get me wrong though I still think the buyout will hold, but the risk of it not holding has gone up fairly significantly in my view. The people who think
"the buyout will definitely hold" are looking at the market with rose colored glasses in my view, just as the people who think “it will definitely fall over” are probably not being realistic either, the future just isn't known but the risks are pretty obvious. A lot may well depend on the overall state of the economy, in terms of the level of confidence domainers will have in this niche.
Maybe one of the biggest potential defences LLLL.com has is that the owners of higher quality names may well step in if the buyout starts to not hold just to protect the value of their own names. If the buyout didn't hold I think we'd see a very big price crash at all quality levels and I think most realize that even though they may not be willing to say it.