The LLLL.com Naysayers Thread

[italiandragon]

I can`t really keep track of all the arguments you guys are posting so since I`m trying to answer to all of your doubts/arguments/criticism and I`m putting all of the most valide arguments in one Blog post here:

http://www.italiandragon.com/?p=59

I invite all LLLL.com naysaysers/un-believers/undecided or whatever you like to call yourself

to post here your arguments on WHY the LLLL.com

1) won`t grow in value till reaching AT LEAST 1/26 of their similar LLL.com

2) won`t grow at stronger % compared to LLL.com

3) won`t stay ALL REGGED

4) won`t get more and more worldwide visitors and/or buyers

5) etc.


Please: this is a serious thread, I`m serious at doing business and this is big business. Do not post just to post.

Thank you

 

[everify]

Another graphic for you:

Another graphic for you:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CMGI&t=my

 

[italiandragon]

That is they key question afterall, there are so many factors involved with the domain experience. One key part of it is there is literally only one of each. From just a little research I did it looks like the vast majority of end users do not buy in the aftermarket, they settle for whatever is available, throwing in dashes or using their whole business name or an alternate extension.

There are a lot of numbers being thrown around on the LLLL.com end user totals. I just can't see that 80% of them migrated to end users in the last few months.

I think you did not understand what happened.

THe available LLLL.com decreased since around 2001 after a big company dropped a large part of them in the .com bubble-burst.

Then this is what happened in the last 2 years:

http://dyyo.com/analysis_remaining.php

About 2 years ago, there were 100,000 LLLL.com available. 1 year ago, just about 50,000.
There are tons of them that never drop.

And when they drop, you can see how many people are ready to get them , in this chart you can see the spike on new registrations that occurred after 11-09-2001:

http://dyyo.com/analysis_registration.php

Probably many companies dropped names then and someone regged all.

 

[Shenron]

...

 

[Shenron]

Another graphic for you:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CMGI&t=my

I'm a stock/forex/commodities trader for 14-15 years now.
This market has little or nothing to do with it.

 

[italiandragon]

Another graphic for you:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CMGI&t=my

And this one for you:


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y


US $10,000 5 years ago are about $7,000 now...

 

[bricio]

I'm a stock/forex/commodities trader for 14-15 years now.

Bruno and Lorenzo, have you told to other stock/forex/commodities traders about domain and the profit you can have (quick profit and long term one?)

just curious if you told about domains and the answers you heard

 

[italiandragon]

Bruno and Lorenzo, have you told to other stock/forex/commodities traders about domain and the profit you can have (quick profit and long term one?)

just curious if you told about domains and the answers you heard

I planned to do that but did not have time yet.....if I show them what`s going on here.....there would be a forum full of italians within hours.

 

[everify]

I agree with all of you....

I agree with all of you....

Domains are a great investment when the dollar is in decline and the stock market has nothing to do with domain names.

I just brought some different subjects up as comparisons while we wait for more of the domain pros to add to to thread.

 

[Shenron]

Bruno and Lorenzo, have you told to other stock/forex/commodities traders about domain and the profit you can have (quick profit and long term one?)

Just curious if you told about domains and the answers you heard

I have talked to a couple other guys about this biz, but they seem to be mostly interested in the "adsense thing" as it involves less risk.
I kinda find it funny when some of them trade over $100.000 (leveraged) per day and are worried with $1000 in domains...

The most clever answer I've heard was: "If it continues like that I believe someone will turn it into a real commodity and start trading it live" - This guy is a professional broker itself

**Somehow I liked this answer... :sold: **

 

[Phronesis]

Imo, everify hits the nail squarely on the head. Someone else compared LLLL.coms to a stock IPO in another thread saying they settle down eventually and stop going up by leaps and bounds. However, the true statistic is that most IPO's trade below their offer price 6 months after they come to market.

Example

So, obviously the opportunity lies in being able to get in cheap and get out in the frenzy. I think the same is true of the LLLL.com hype now. Truthfully, if I owned any more than the few I do now, I would be a heavy seller in this market. I'm not sure exactly what a LLLL.com "naysayer" is. Obviously, any LLLL word is worth a lot and an acronym is worth something. There can't be much argument against that.

However, the argument that non-us countries see certain letters as premium is irrelevant imo. Even if we were to assume that all 26 letters are "premium" I don't see most of or all 457,000 of them ending up in end-user hands - certainly not if prices increase at the rates that some are projecting. This raises two areas of concern that people are banking on. 1) end users and 2) cost to own.

1) Lorenzo says that there are 350,000 LLLL.coms already in end-user hands. I really want to see how you get to this number. I've tried a few random samplings and the most I ever get is 10%. Even that seems high to me. And I don't think you can consider a domainer website selling the name an end-user. But let's be optimistic and say that there are 350k already being used by end-users. What's preventing the rest from being used? If they were available for reg fee last year that means nobody wanted them. But now they are all bought up in a fenzy by domainers who are selling them for 10 - 100x higher prices? And the only ones buying them now are other domainers who "see the potential"? Doesn't make much sense to me.

2) So let's say I want to "get in the game" now. I want to add 100 high quality LLLL.coms to my portfolio. According to Reece's blog, my minimum cost is $40,000 - and that's assuming I'm not buying any nice CVCVs. (More realistically, $50k-$60,000 but lets go with $40k). It's pretty safe to assume that most all these names earn little to no revenue. So now I'm sitting on these names long-term, paying about $1,000 per year in renewals (which is adding to my expense) and I have two choices. Wait for end-users that may never come or try to resell to domainers at a profit. I may have some success in both choices but if what I said above in point 1 is realized by everyone, I'm left holding a very expensive bag with $1,000 annual renewals on top of that. So, imo, the only people who are going to fare well in the LLLL.com craze are those who got in at reg fee or are finding a few bargains at a time and flipping them.

So I guess this brings me to my official question for your blog, Lorenzo;

"People who bought at reg fee will make a killing if they sell now, but how much can someone expect to make if they buy now, at these prices?"

Obviously, you don't know the answer to that - nobody does. But I think that anyone who has ever been around the block in any kind of investing before sees the huge downside risk here for any considerable LLLL.com holding. Do you know why most people lost more than 1/2 their portfolio value when the stock market fell in 2000? They were emotionally attached to their investments and didn't know when to sell.

just my 2c

 

[bricio]

I planned to do that but did not have time yet.....if I show them what`s going on here.....there would be a forum full of italians within hours.

i really believe it would happen Lorenzo

I have talked to a couple other guys about this biz, but they seem to be mostly interested in the "adsense thing" as it involves less risk.
I kinda find it funny when some of them trade over $100.000 (leveraged) per day and are worried with $1000 in domains...

The most clever answer I've heard was: "If it continues like that I believe someone will turn it into a real commodity and start trading it live" - This guy is a professional broker itself

**Somehow I liked this answer... :sold: **

Bruno, they are worried with $1,000 because people worry what they dont know
the answer you heard was reallt a smart one but he told that with “stock eyes”; domains can be commodities, and i believe they are, however they are different and we cant compare how stocks and domains are bought and sold

However, the true statistic is that most IPO's trade below their offer price 6 months after they come to market.

ok, but in the long term you have a good ROI, dont you? (correct me if I am wrong)

the argument that non-us countries see certain letters as premium is irrelevant imo.

this is the biggest mistake of all; i dont know why how many people simply ignore what is non-english; i think these people just dont read international news and know nothing about the rest of the world (they know only whats going on in their countries or cities or neighborhoods)
this is like being nike’s CEO and just ignore brazil or argentina as they are poor countries (but you cant imagine what soccer is capable of…)

1) Lorenzo says that there are 350,000 LLLL.coms already in end-user hands. I really want to see how you get to this number. I've tried a few random samplings and the most I ever get is 10%. Even that seems high to me. And I don't think you can consider a domainer website selling the name an end-user. But let's be optimistic and say that there are 350k already being used by end-users. What's preventing the rest from being used? If they were available for reg fee last year that means nobody wanted them. But now they are all bought up in a fenzy by domainers who are selling them for 10 - 100x higher prices? And the only ones buying them now are other domainers who "see the potential"? Doesn't make much sense to me.

2) So let's say I want to "get in the game" now. I want to add 100 high quality LLLL.coms to my portfolio. According to Reece's blog, my minimum cost is $40,000 - and that's assuming I'm not buying any nice CVCVs. (More realistically, $50k-$60,000 but lets go with $40k). It's pretty safe to assume that most all these names earn little to no revenue. So now I'm sitting on these names long-term, paying about $1,000 per year in renewals (which is adding to my expense) and I have two choices. Wait for end-users that may never come or try to resell to domainers at a profit. I may have some success in both choices but if what I said above in point 1 is realized by everyone, I'm left holding a very expensive bag with $1,000 annual renewals on top of that. So, imo, the only people who are going to fare well in the LLLL.com craze are those who got in at reg fee or are finding a few bargains at a time and flipping them.

lets say you will spend $40,000 buying 100 good names (you will be lucky if you get 100 good LLLL for an average price of $400)
each one until 2011 will cost you (reg fee for $8, godaddy) $416 what means 4% of the total price you paid… so Phorensis, you are saying only LLLL wont gain 4% in two years while LLL have their prices skyrocketing and all dot coms gain value as well?
if you don’t think “the argument that non-us countries see certain letters as premium is irrelevant” it will be much easier for you to understand why LLLL have value and its value will just increase if external factors dont affect the industry or if only usa keep using acronyms
yet about your “non-us countries argument” do you know by the middle of this century (or maybe by 2020-2030) china will be the largest economy in the world?
but remember until there its economy is growing everyday and more and more people are coming to the market (and not only in china) but especially india, brazil and Russia (BRIC)

BTW, nice post you wrote!
it is good to read these posts even if we dont agree with them… it promotes debate

 

[Shenron]

Imo, everify hits the nail squarely on the head. Someone else compared LLLL.coms to a stock IPO in another thread saying they settle down eventually and stop going up by leaps and bounds. However, the true statistic is that most IPO's trade below their offer price 6 months after they come to market.

I've made this comparison, BUT, I was talking about volumes. (period)

Did I mention prices and compared them with LLLL's? Plain NO.


Ah yes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China

Check the growth... :yell:

**ALso Agree, Nice Post!**

 

[rkbdomain]

It's certainly not 350,000 in end-user hands. I have done random sampling of the LLLL.com's and I think about 100k might be in end-user hands, and about 350k are waiting to be developed.

You can see the sample results here and here.

The margin of error is still pretty high on these results (around 10% at the 95% confidence level) since I need to do more sampling to get a bigger sample size, but that's still good enough to say that 350k are not in end-user hands.

 

[Phronesis]

domains can be commodities, and i believe they are, however they are different and we cant compare how stocks and domains are bought and sold

You're right, we cannot compare the day to day trade of stocks to domains because domains lack the liquidity of most stocks - and a company can have billions of shares for the same equity whereas each domain is unique - one share per. However, imo, a market is a market is a market. Whether you are talking about stocks, commodities, comic books, housing, baseball cards, whatever. Speculation creates bubbles and hype - and those late to the game have the odds stacked against them.

ok, but in the long term you have a good ROI, dont you? (correct me if I am wrong)

Depends completely upon the quality of the (IPO) company. Some do well other don't. Google basically went straight up from its IPO and leveled off. Other companies have gone bankrupt from theirs. Google was definitely the exception rather than the rule.

this is the biggest mistake of all; i dont know why how many people simply ignore what is non-english; i think these people just dont read international news and know nothing about the rest of the world (they know only whats going on in their countries or cities or neighborhoods)
this is like being nike’s CEO and just ignore brazil or argentina as they are poor countries (but you cant imagine what soccer is capable of…)
yet about your “non-us countries argument” do you know by the middle of this century (or maybe by 2020-2030) china will be the largest economy in the world?
but remember until there its economy is growing everyday and more and more people are coming to the market (and not only in china) but especially india, brazil and Russia (BRIC)

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I am saying that regardless of whether other countries consider certain letters premium or not - even if we consider all 26 letters are premium for the sake of global users, I still cannot see how the majority of LLLL.com names will wind up in end-user hands. In this I may be completely wrong. It just seems that if there was NO end-user interest in these unregged names last year, one should not expect there to be a sudden explosion of end-user interest in them in the next 5 years. I do not doubt that end-user use of LLLL.coms will increase over time, but just because domainers bought them all up is no indication that will be true. I'm not saying that a LLLL.com position in your portfolio is unwise - more a word of caution to newbies who come into this industry thinking money grows on trees (and markets never go down) and subsequently bet the farm of these names.

BTW, nice post you wrote!
it is good to read these posts even if we dont agree with them… it promotes debate

Thanks. I agree.

 

[bricio]

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I am saying that regardless of whether other countries consider certain letters premium or not - even if we consider all 26 letters are premium for the sake of global users, I still cannot see how the majority of LLLL.com names will wind up in end-user hands. In this I may be completely wrong. It just seems that if there was NO end-user interest in these unregged names last year, one should not expect there to be a sudden explosion of end-user interest in them in the next 5 years. I do not doubt that end-user use of LLLL.coms will increase over time, but just because domainers bought them all up is no indication that will be true. I'm not saying that a LLLL.com position in your portfolio is unwise - more a word of caution to newbies who come into this industry thinking money grows on trees (and markets never go down) and subsequently bet the farm of these names.

ok, now i really got it

i really believe almost all LLL dot com and a great quantity of LLLL dot com will be in end-users hands (of couse LLL dot com first and more than LLLL in %) but for me it will surely take more than 5 five years

i think we are having many buyouts lately and i stated some reasons for them before, such as more domainers, people reading how fast internet is spreading throughout the world, more money in the industry, etc

many people have started domaining see the domains as long term investment and this might be another important different POV; many people here will wait at least 5 years to sell their small names (and i am one of them; i sell sometimes but the best of my portfolio i will sell only in some years)

when i talk or read about spreading of internet it reminds me the difference between geometric progression and arithmetic progression... things are going as fast as numbers go in geometric progression

i agree with you newbies must be careful when they start domaining... it was much easier for those who were here before the buyout
never put all your eggs in only one basket :hehe:

 

[bfluid]

It's certainly not 350,000 in end-user hands. I have done random sampling of the LLLL.com's and I think about 100k might be in end-user hands, and about 350k are waiting to be developed.

You can see the sample results here and here.

The margin of error is still pretty high on these results (around 10% at the 95% confidence level) since I need to do more sampling to get a bigger sample size, but that's still good enough to say that 350k are not in end-user hands.

I don't think 350k are developed either. Though I am 110% for LLLL.com.

But I have to admit 100k is a great number! That is one in every five LLLL.com's!

 

[italiandragon]

I don't think 350k are developed either. Though I am 110% for LLLL.com.

But I have to admit 100k is a great number! That is one in every five LLLL.com's!

Just a quick note as I`m still not feeling well ( it seems it`s an ugly bronchitis )

when I state that 350,000 LLLL.com are in endusers hands I did not state that they are developed. SO why I call them endusers?
Honestly, in our perception the difference between an enduser and a domainer is if the domain is for sale or not. Well......it depends also from the price offered. For instance: if you offer $5,000 for a random developed LLLL.com you have more chances that the current enduser changes his mind and decides to sell. In that case we have an enduser becoming a domainer, maybe just for once. Viceversa, some domainers won`t sell you a domain for 1 Million dollars just because they love it, so in that case they become endusers too.

SO? I think at the end what it matters here is: how many LLLL.com are for sale at a specific amount of money.

And once you establish how much is that, we can get things going on the count. For instance, in my evaluation, I considered enduser whoever replied me asking more than $300 for a very random unpronunciable LLLL

After I sent off about 5,000 email in 1 month, I started to have some valuable datas. THe biggest issue so far has been that a large part of them did not answer at all and I considered that as endusers since they may be not interested.

I`m planning to continue the testing to have a more accurate result but since this first 5000 were all registered before January 2007, this is pretty good for me.

SO, I may be stasting it in incorrect terms, but at the end of the day, if for instance, all LLLL.com registrants won`t sell their domains for less than $1,000 , then we could , in that case go around claiming all LLLL.com are in endusers ends.....considering any enduser could sell their domain for a specific amount. Things changes so we can`t really just draw in black and white here.

 

[-REECE-]

Personally, I'd never sell to a real enduser under $500... I'd rather have no sale than waste my time negotiating with them for less than that.

Time is money... I value my time very highly and won't waste it negotiating with some random bloke who sends me an email out of nowhere and might just as well disappear as fast as he appeared.

I think most people on here feel similarly about this. I certainly wouldn't call myself an enduser because I'd rather have no sale than waste my time with whois spammers / endusers...

We know what our time is worth, we know the success rate on whois inquiries is relatively low, and we know that if we're wasting our time on this bloke, we sure as hell better be getting extra compensation.

 

[ssamriga]

ok, I like LLLL.coms, though i don't agree with Italiandragon on this 'enduser' definition.
A real enduser should only be considered someone with a developed site who would only want to sell the name for many times above market value. Anyone who is willing to sell his LLLL.com for less than let's say 3 times it's market value can not be counted as an enduser.
Therefore I would say that a 100,000 end-users are a lot more correct figure than 350,000.

Lorenzo sometimes you are a too much of a LLLL fan. I think we should have more realistic expectations to make better decisions and avoid any possible large price fluctuations...

 

[thetruman]

he shows the italian passionate blood :yell: