There will be one off sales where registries did not price some keyword as premium that actually made sense and did not have some ridiculous renewal. But if you look at the swelling registration stats and assume at least 80% perhaps 90% of nTLDs are domainer held, obviously we do not have enough aftermarket activity to pay renewals. Again, 1% turn with $10 renewals and 20% marketplace commissions needs a $1250 sale to breakeven. Many nTLDs have higher renewals. But if there are 20-24 million aftermarket nTLDs, where are the four thousand WEEKLY nTLD sales on DNJ?
Good points.
A mistake is assuming an instant aftermarket. Aftermarkets have 3 components. Users + Investors + Time. As you pointed out there is no aftermarket. The legacy "aftermarket" didn't exist for 15+ years after launch. It won't take as long for the New "G"s
simply because the foundation exists.
"1% turn with $10 renewals and 20% marketplace commissions needs a $1250 sale to break even."
That only addresses one type of investor.
If that's the market you invest in and assume how long of a hold?
A lot of "investors" flip fast for much less cost and a decent profit.
"investors" in the middle risk the time factor of the aftermarket that is more in line with your cost suggestion.
An even smaller pool of "investors" play the long view.
It wasn't that long ago when number domains were worthless until china showed up yet "investors" paid 10-15+ years reg fees on "worthless domains" at the buy.
With parking revenues dead, slow churn for mid range domains, investors may have to do more as TopShelfDomains and others have suggested develop, or be willing to pay for the wait.
Most high profile sales have significant hold times associated. So it's going to cost more in today's market. Factor it in and decide if it's worth the risk.
" Many nTLDs have higher renewals".
Seriously misleading. I can say with near certainty 90% of the 20+ million New "G"s don't have reg fees higher than 100.00 and "many" are within the same range of country code tlds. 15-30.
reg fees for legacies were at 100 at one time too. There is nothing wrong with testing the market for price resistance points. In fact lowering reg fees for legacies is what helped fuel today's aftermarket. YES?
More stable consistent pricing will come with time.
The profit is in the initial buy. It's rare to be able to purchase 10-15 years later a now valuable domain for even close to 10x reg. fee.
Yes the cost is going to be higher just like everything else on the planet.
Huston.com is an example of producing income with minimal development. It may be even more profitable than an outright sale over time.
With all of the changing developments around domains what is clear: It's no longer a "passive" endeavor,.
Happy Hunting
