report Significantly Increased Auction Activity

[Ategy]

Wow .. I'm actually having a frustrating day at auction .. just about all the domains I'm watching (just about all the best on my personal list and quite a few from my shared public list are getting far above average number of bids and well above average prices.

Usually on my days off I manage to snag a few cheap .. and even turn down some really good ones .. it's almost as if instead of just one heavyweight (like HugeDomains) competing with the rest of us .. that there are now two heavy hitters battling it out for everything barely even leaving any scraps for the rest of us.

To the point where names of the type/quality I was getting at at $17, $12 or even closeout are hitting three figures .. and domains I'd grab mid-high $xx are hitting $250++ and up.

While this certainly sucks for auction buyers in the short term .. if it keeps up .. it could mean significantly better wholesale prices in the long term .. which could be either good or bad for domainers depending on the particulars of their portfolio.

I did notice patterns like this last year .. wish I tracked it better. Before the day even started and most bids began, I did notice it certainly was a big day in terms of number of good names .. maybe that was part of it?

Curious if I'm the only one seeing this?

 

[Ategy]

Every single domain I've followed so far have gotten a $10 bid at about 5:50 ...

Maybe it doesn't help that I actually openly share about 80% of my personal list? lol
https://www.namepros.com/threads/at...n-auction-and-closeout-domains.1006428/page-8

About how many domains do you track a day? I usually have on average about 150 on my daily watchlist .. although last few days was high 200s. Today it's at 200 .. but also lower number of higher personal scoring (I usually highlight about 30% of names .. and of those I rank 1 to 4 .. if that makes any sense .. lol)

I have to admit to paying less attention today .. far fewer names that I marked as ones to get. I'm actually for 4 so far in getting the ones I really wanted so far (of the ones I though I'd have a chance ahead of time) .. with no competition!
(Admittedly there are others I'd LOVE to have had .. but the prebidding before the day started took them off my "great value" list .. that happens every day .. nothing unusual there)

FYI .. TerrorCow.com passed through to closeout untouched .. I'm going to be super generous and not take it in case any of you want it! lol
MooooooBoo

Also, that $10 bidder, presumably still HugeDomains, seem to have changed their strategy to bid in $10 increments today rather than use high proxy bids. So if you bid $50, they place a $10 proxy bid (1), outbid you leaving current bid at $55, and when you place another bid at $60 they by default outbid you at $60 (i.e. you both have a $60 bid, leading to their earlier bid to "win" both bidders at $60). So basically they will by default outbid you at the same amount as you bid on every other counter-bid if you make at the normal $5 increments. Went back and forth with them up to $XXX on several domains in this way already today (2)...

1) Haha .. I do this sometimes .. happened to me a couple of times lost ago I lost an auction with the top bid and I couldn't figure out why. Now I do it hoping to catch someone off-guard .. rarely works .. and the few times it does it's likely because the person couldn't go higher anyways. Again .. to be fair .. I'm mostly an extreme value buyer .. 90% of my buys in the last few months are $17 / $12 bids or $11 / $5 closeouts! Based on all the crazy hours I comment on their blog @Domain Shane and @ikehook claim that *I* am a Bot! lol

2) Did you win any of them? Was it only the 2 of you up until a certain point?

3) More importantly .. are you seeing counter bidding by a seemingly 2nd bot (or another buyer with massive pockets)?

 

[wwwweb]

"TerrorCow.com passed through to closeout untouched .. I'm going to be super generous and not take it in case any of you want it! lol
MooooooBoo

Usually I have gotten pretty good at seeing a name, and the industry behind it, but I can see how this one goes to closeout, untouched, what was your vision behind it, if I may ask?

 

[UXela]

• How do you know what bots feel? Maybe they do feel rich. Just asked mine and I think I will need to pay some huge psychiatric counseling costs for it
• You can watch domains at GD auction without actually watching those domains
• Assume the worst regarding GD' s general ethics to avoid future disappointment
• Nope - I was not high while writing the above. Those who want to understand will understand.

 

[4better]

I guess it's more on the quality of domains and age that attract higher bids. All those that I've personally chosen always go for $x,xxx. Perhaps by choosing the mediocre ones, I thought I could get them lower but then bids still go for 3 figures. Before I used to get some for low, mid, high $xx only. This time maybe a harvest season?

 

[learie]

great information guys I am just loving it, but there must be other great wholesale platforms out there a pa3t from Godaddy?

 

[Ategy]

Wow .. I didn't really see it that much yesterday .. but right now some big action again at the start of today. I was hoping to pick up "PerfectPancake.com" .. but it just went for $0 with 6 minutes to go and blew past $200 in a couple of minutes and still climbing. 5L Smizz.com over $200? It's good .. but you could do better in 5L for that price .. that 2nd Z kill the radio test. lol

great information guys I am just loving it, but there must be other great wholesale platforms out there a pa3t from Godaddy?

@learie .. there are a few others (NameJet probably being #2) .. but GoDaddy really has a huge bulk of the names and most of the overall volume.

 

[wwwweb]

Wow .. I didn't really see it that much yesterday .. but right now some big action again at the start of today. I was hoping to pick up "PerfectPancake.com" .. but it just went for $0 with 6 minutes to go and blew past $200 in a couple of minutes and still climbing. 5L Smizz.com over $200? It's good .. but you could do better in 5L for that price .. that 2nd Z kill the radio test. lol




@learie .. there are a few others (NameJet probably being #2) .. but GoDaddy really has a huge bulk of the names and most of the overall volume.

Since when have brandables ever cared about the radio test, the second Z takes it from a prnouncable 4L to an over extended 5L, these are the kind of names that used to go for reg fee to upwards of of the $50 range, $200 is madness. Botsh@t gone crazy, it’s good to see people waste their money on crappy domains, less money to buy good ones, and if it’s HD’s bot that is wasting the houses money on that crud even better. It helps us with decent names command more for our names, after spending $2xx on names like that someone has to mark them to pay for all the laggards, so makes the sell thru drop.

This is just the new norm, there will be more of this head shaking, but if people have money to burn, by all means.

Newbies may watch these shows that show one off examples, but the people who really know the worth of such names are the ones who have had them sitting in their portfolios for years without offers, much like when the Chinese showed up paying $2500 for NQZX.com etc.. the people who had been sitting on them for years other then A D, quickly put them in 10 pack bundles and escrowed them into $25k quickly.

 

[BrandBoogie]

I've noticed this too. I'm getting out bid all the time now. And it just started happening within the past couple of days.

 

[Ategy]

FYI .. TerrorCow.com passed through to closeout untouched .. I'm going to be super generous and not take it in case any of you want it! lol
MooooooBoo

Usually I have gotten pretty good at seeing a name, and the industry behind it, but I can see how this one goes to closeout, untouched, what was your vision behind it, if I may ask?

lol .. He's the new mascot for the Vegan Alliance!

Since when have brandables ever cared about the radio test, the second Z takes it from a prnouncable 4L to an over extended 5L, these are the kind of names that used to go for reg fee to upwards of of the $50 range, $200 is madness. Botsh@t gone crazy, it’s good to see people waste their money on crappy domains, less money to buy good ones, and if it’s HD’s bot that is wasting the houses money on that crud even better. ...

lol .. yups .. couldn't agree more. I grab a few brandable 5L every now .. but I'm pretty sure I wouldn't even have grabbed Smizz.com at closeout ... nevermind $200+.

It just makes me wonder how many domains do HD sell on an ongoing basis?

 

[wwwweb]

lol .. He's the new mascot for the Vegan Alliance!



lol .. yups .. couldn't agree more. I grab a few brandable 5L every now .. but I'm pretty sure I wouldn't even have grabbed Smizz.com at closeout ... nevermind $200+.

It just makes me wonder how many domains do HD sell on an ongoing basis?

Well when most people were not even in the domain industry, dropcatching pre 2011 used to be pretty decent without any type of backorder device, I believe I started detecting Huge Domains back when they weren't so huge sometime around then, and they were cherry picking that stuff that wasn't going thru namejet, or snap $69, and doing quite well, so during this 5 year window they grabbed some really decent names. Then they opened it up, and morphed into Dropcatch, along with Namebright, and now dropcatch dominates the space.

Who would think they would support their competition, and pay, and use their services in Godaddy, but just as they have done to everything else they are doing to the Godaddy platform. We are at least informed on the patterns of what is going on, and are able to adapt, or take a step back. Newbie bidders, or end users keep walking into it, and godaddy is loving it. If every 5L.com with a pulse is going for $2XX, then all we can do is step aside, and let them own it, and say let's see you outsell your spend.

Dropcatch has 2 or 3 big spenders that are the main source of the bids over there, they never back down, they will go up against the end user and take them to $10K if they are bidding on a brand upgrade by chance. It makes it a very expensive, and difficult place to do business also due to these few usernames, many of which are new on the scene. This is a great revenue generator for TurnCommerce, when they lost one their main bidders from South Korea the platform really felt his lack of bids, and at least things came back to common sense, but not so much anymore, as you have the same class of bidders are fighting for the same domain, and much like a dog who doesn't know when he's full, these guys don't know when to stop bidding.

They must be generating to be spending, the level of their buying day in, and day out is a serious budget, they have a all in mentality here, either they taking it all, or nothing.

From what I have noticed it comes in waves, the spending it turns off, and on, but they have been stepping it up, and many here are starting to notice those nibbles they used to be able to get, start to get picked off, and get a big X on them going into the last 5 minutes.

 

[learie]

Most likely I would have come up against one of you in the auction battlefield on GoDaddy. So, despite there is a bot out there we are engaging each other either-or. So, won't we be contributing to the jacking up of the prices also?

 

[Name Trader]

Most likely I would have come up against one of you in the auction battlefield on GoDaddy. So, despite there is a bot out there we are engaging each other either-or. So, won't we be contributing to the jacking up of the prices also?

Yep. But it's only a pin-prick compared to going up against the bots.We are all bidding against the bots every day. Whether your an idiot, or not Generally. I pass. But threads like this I find enthralling.

 

[imadoer]

Its really hard to win anymore at expired auction. Unless your over paying. Nothing you can do about it if thats where your bidding.

 

[Ategy]

How are you regular seeing things today? I had a good number of domains on my list today .. but not too many I was value targeting so haven't been looking too much. I actually missed one I really wanted not because I was out bit .. but because I was typing too long in another thread .. lol

 

[Ategy]

wow .. what a very big coincidence that as we discuss this post about bots possibly having an advantage .. GoDaddy as of today has removed "Watchers" from closeout pages. But the question remains .. is that data still available to those with API access? I just wrote up the following .. would very much like to have this question answered clearly ... and more specifically .. have a clear and public list of all data fields and information available to those with API access ...

https://www.namepros.com/threads/godaddy-hides-number-of-watchers-for-closeout-listings.1064428/

 

[krx]

It just makes me wonder how many domains do HD sell on an ongoing basis?

I've wondered this many times myself. If it wasn't such a well-funded and systematic venture I would speculate that their business plan is half-baked. They are clearly hoping to establish some kind of monopoly in the aftermarket, buying up everything that moves—and a lot of names that never should have existed in the first place. But I can't imagine that the business is profitable at present with such massive outlays of capital on names that will never sell for what they're paying for them. They are banking on being the only game in town (or one of only a few games in town that will work together to control the aftermarket and hold prices for names like smizz.com up to a premium of what they paid for it). They won't ever sell but a fraction of the names they're buying but they'll sell those at a premium. It will take many years for this plan to be truly profitable, which is why it seems crazy to me. Will domain names really be around that long? Things like the loss of net neutrality (which will raise the costs of doing business on the web and spur alternative technologies for all the small businesses that will find it hard to compete with the big boys dominating the fee-for-bandwidth model) and the emergence of blockchain technology are just two of known knowns that could seriously disrupt this industry. While I hope the domain name industry lasts forever, I wouldn't be sinking a fortune into a bet on it.

 

[Asfas1000]

I've wondered this many times myself. If it wasn't such a well-funded and systematic venture I would speculate that their business plan is half-baked. They are clearly hoping to establish some kind of monopoly in the aftermarket, buying up everything that moves—and a lot of names that never should have existed in the first place. But I can't imagine that the business is profitable at present with such massive outlays of capital on names that will never sell for what they're paying for them. They are banking on being the only game in town (or one of only a few games in town that will work together to control the aftermarket and hold prices for names like smizz.com up to a premium of what they paid for it). They won't ever sell but a fraction of the names they're buying but they'll sell those at a premium. It will take many years for this plan to be truly profitable, which is why it seems crazy to me. Will domain names really be around that long? Things like the loss of net neutrality (which will raise the costs of doing business on the web and spur alternative technologies for all the small businesses that will find it hard to compete with the big boys dominating the fee-for-bandwidth model) and the emergence of blockchain technology are just two of known knowns that could seriously disrupt this industry. While I hope the domain name industry lasts forever, I wouldn't be sinking a fortune into a bet on it.

Don't forget that they have some decisive advantages over you and me :

1. Massive data from millions of domains, history, negotiations, user searches.
2. *Possibly* special deals with registrars to get better promotion for their domains (see how many HD domains show up in a registrar search)
3. Wide network of existing clients (end users and domainers alike)

I find it very hard for any company to increase their losing business and go from a total of 2.4M domains to 4M domains in 1-2 years. Although it is not unlikely.

Will domain names really be around that long?

That's a great question. I am using a 3-year horizon in my estimations. ie, I assume nothing totally damaging will occur in the next 3 years. Actually, there are many reasons why domain values may depreciate: Regulatory, Technolgical, Market-related and more.

 

[Ategy]

I've wondered this many times myself. If it wasn't such a well-funded and systematic venture I would speculate that their business plan is half-baked. They are clearly hoping to establish some kind of monopoly in the aftermarket, buying up everything that moves—and a lot of names that never should have existed in the first place. But I can't imagine that the business is profitable at present with such massive outlays of capital on names that will never sell for what they're paying for them. They are banking on being the only game in town (or one of only a few games in town that will work together to control the aftermarket and hold prices for names like smizz.com up to a premium of what they paid for it). They won't ever sell but a fraction of the names they're buying but they'll sell those at a premium. It will take many years for this plan to be truly profitable, which is why it seems crazy to me.....

That's the thing .. They could still be profitable despite only selling a fraction. Don't forget we only see/notice the names they drive up to $200-400 .. but how many do they grab at $20 .. and then resell at $2000? I'm thinking the bulk of their names are much cheaper than we think. If they only sell 2% of their inventory a year they are filthy stinking rich .. lol. Because while they might pay a bit more for some .. the costs of their older domains are just $8/year.

That being said .. there were a couple of names they had I was eyeing years ago when I was thinking more development .. they never sold .. but again ... it's impossible to say given such a small sampling size.

 

[Ategy]

Does anyone regularly using NameJet notice if there have been more bidding there as well over the past week?

 

[krx]

That's the thing .. They could still be profitable despite only selling a fraction. Don't forget we only see/notice the names they drive up to $200-400 .. but how many do they grab at $20 .. and then resell at $2000? I'm thinking the bulk of their names are much cheaper than we think. If they only sell 2% of their inventory a year they are filthy stinking rich .. lol. Because while they might pay a bit more for some .. the costs of their older domains are just $8/year.

But times that by 4,000,000 domains and you've got $32,000,000 annual renewal. Then add in the multi-million budget for new domain acquisitions, then add in a million or two for standard business overhead costs. That's got to add up to $50 to $100,000,000 outlay per year. They would have to sell 25,000 to 50,000 domains at $2000 each just to break even. Could they be selling that many names?

 

[Ategy]

But times that by 4,000,000 domains and you've got $32,000,000 annual renewal. Then add in the multi-million budget for new domain acquisitions, then add in a million or two for standard business overhead costs. That's got to add up to $50 to $100,000,000 outlay per year. They would have to sell 25,000 to 50,000 domains at $2000 each just to break even. Could they be selling that many names?

Just 1% of 4M is 40,000 domains. The supposed industry average is 2% .. so that's 80,000 domains. Then add to that all the things @Asfas1000 mentioned above and I'd say it's quite possible they hit their 2%. Plus some domains sell for far more than $2k.

The only problem I see is that at some point with such a huge inventory .. you're simply competing against yourself. Meaning that there really is not point in buying PurplePopcornPosse.com if you've already got PinkPopcornPosse.com if you know what I mean. The hard part is getting customers to come to your site .. but in many cases, if they were going to buy one .. they were going to buy the other. I would have thought that would have happened after 100,000 names .. lol .. but I guess not given the fact they are buying en masse.

 

[krx]

Just 1% of 4M is 40,000 domains. The supposed industry average is 2% .. so that's 80,000 domains. Then add to that all the things @Asfas1000 mentioned above and I'd say it's quite possible they hit their 2%. Plus some domains sell for far more than $2k.

Right. If they are selling in the 1% to 2% range they are probably doing fine. Those percentages are of course based on the presumption of decent-to-good names, which judging by their inventory I'm not sure I would grant. Total-and-complete-absurdly-ridiculous-crap to good names would closer fit the bill.

The only problem I see is that at some point with such a huge inventory .. you're simply competing against yourself. Meaning that there really is not point in buying PurplePopcornPosse.com if you've already got PinkPopcornPosse.com if you know what I mean. The hard part is getting customers to come to your site .. but in many cases, if they were going to buy one .. they were going to buy the other. I would have thought that would have happened after 100,000 names .. lol .. but I guess not given the fact they are buying en masse.

I suspect these types of purchases (on the lower end of the very low end of names they buy) has to be a liability of automating the purchase process. Bots don't really know what they're buying, they just go on indicators. The funny thing is that they go ahead and list this stuff on their site, and pay renewal fees on it. Who knows maybe it works to make the okay names seem that much better.

 

[Asfas1000]

I think it's working the other way...if an end user can live with either PurplePopcornPosse or PinkPopcornPosse, and one is taken and the other is available to reg, they will go for the regfee option.

So if you don't have both, effectively applying some kind of monopoly, it is almost as good as having none of them.

 

[krx]

Does anyone regularly using NameJet notice if there have been more bidding there as well over the past week?

I don't watch it closely enough to know. However I know they are winding up the NamesCon auctions so that would have brought in a considerable spike in traffic I would think.

I am wondering if the increased action on expired GD auctions has any affect on the public GD auctions? Anyone have a read on that?

 

[Ategy]

... Bots don't really know what they're buying, they just go on indicators ...

I don't know why everyone assumes it's only bots. Seriously .. if I had an operation the size of them .. I'd definitely have a human manually interacting with their automated system ... I would never only have a bot .. domains are too unique and language is too complex for that to ever work ... however .. if you have a bot pulling tons of information and more importantly still pulling of names they think are good (but many obviously not) .. and then have a human also go over that list .. then you have a incredibly powerful hybrid system .. best of human and bot .. a cyborg! lol


It really bother me that the specifics of what I wrote here didn't cause more people to be a little more outspoken and suspicious. I was colossally disappointed that NamePros decided to remove it from news when it's probably one of the most important things that could ever pertain to domains who buy anything at auction!

https://www.namepros.com/threads/godaddy-hides-number-of-watchers-for-closeout-listings.1064428/


Give me someone who can make me an auction interface who I can direct how to build a bot with human interaction .. then give me some start up funding .. and enough marketing money to get people to my site .. and I'll destroy any "bot" only system. Seriously .. there is no way it's just a bot .. if it is .. then they are throwing money away ... or ... they have so many clients that they simply don't even care about being more efficient .. lol. How much human intervention is another thing .. but if hugenames were mine .. there would be significant human interaction .. heck .. i'd probably have 2-3 people staffed behind a screen the entire auction day.

Definitely check out this thread if you haven't already:
https://www.namepros.com/threads/godaddy-hides-number-of-watchers-for-closeout-listings.1064428/