ALLTHINGS.TV said:
Interesting you should say that Antonis, do you see Demand Medias' decision to raise premiums as a symptom of a rising market or as an attempt to artificially inflate the market?
Nobody can "artificially" inflate a market. Not possible. Can't be done. Either buyers will show up on the other side or they will not.
If they show up, then Demand Media is setting prices correctly. If they do not, then the "inflation" attempt will end in few sales and Demand Media will lower prices.
My sense is that Demand Media is a bit ahead of themselves in their pricing expectations since I doubt the market has changed THAT much in 4 months with no publicity, but that is certainly their right to find out what the market can bear.
As I mentioned earlier, the BIN prices that everyone is getting worked up over are totally irrelevant and aspirational for Demand Media and for most names will not be reached. For some they might and, in those cases, DM was setting the prices correctly.
Nonetheless since each one of us is an individual and not a "market", we can just look at the names we like, figure out what we would be willing to pay, and make that offer to Demand Media and see what happens. That's it. No muss, no fuss.
Warren Buffett's saying about buying stocks is completely applicable here.
"Buying stocks is like being a batter in a baseball game where someone is throwing you pitches but nobody is calling balls."
So in other words, if you are not sure, don't buy. There is always another pitch that is going to come at you. In fact, there are thousands and thousands of them...
Even if Demand Media decided to make every unregistered .tv $1,000,000,000/year, who cares? There is
no shortage at all of domains to buy in .tv secondary or in .com for that matter.
At the prices being tossed around for some .tv names (high four digits, and lowish five digits), you can buy real .coms with real traffic.
Some examples from last week's Domain Journal:
BillCollection.com $11,800
SportingEquipment.com $11,000
WesternApparel.com $9,500
LocalConcerts.com $2,500
These are all great names that certainly generate traffic and profits and have a $6.95 annual renewal fee and a more stable and transparent registry.
This is not to say that there aren't certain premium .tvs that I want. There definitely are. But I am also not particularly flustered by DM testing the waters and throwing out some high prices to see what sticks...
...
Now to answer your question. There is no doubt the market is rising but probably slower than people think. It will take a couple of more years, IMO, to get to the prices that most people think their portfolio is worth today.