How can you discern that ntld investors are less experienced with domain names on average? What evidence can you provide to support that argument?
Very fair question.
I have my own idea based on what I've seen and heard from ntld investors here and elsewhere.
You can tell some people are newcomers just by their comments that are naïve, or loaded with wishful thinking.
No knowledge of history: how was the Internet landscape in 2000 and even before. Worse: no willingness to learn... ignoring the inconvenient history, dismissing the experience of veterans. This time it will be different ! Yes, it's always different... but it repeats itself. .asia .mobi .whatever. Same script, different players, same outcome.
Ignoring the history of failed extensions in the past. New extensions are not new.
You can tell some people are newcomers by their registration date.
Or their unhealthy portfolios (made up of new extensions 100% or 90% or still too much).
Or their absence of track record making sales.
If you haven't even sold .com you don't have the proof of concept. Trying to sell nTLDs is going to be even more difficult. If you haven't made sales, you are de facto less experienced.
it's the "youngsters" that are the ones innovating obsolete technologies. The past definitely helps the future, but you have to understand that at some point, the past becomes irrelevant. The internet stops for no one, you can either keep talking and debating about "oldies" vs "newbies" or adapt to the change and take advantage of the future.
New extensions work exactly like the old ones, so there is no technological progress involved at all. Thus old extensions are no more obsolete than the new. That is from a technical POV. From a marketing/awareness POV, new extensions have not achieved much.
The Internet is changing, for example it has shifted from desktop to mobile in a few years. But the underlying protocols are awfully old and stable in comparison. Domain name are not mere technical identifiers, they are
brands and even virtual
flags (ccTLDs). Some people seem to think they have little relevance and can easily exchanged be when it's not the case.
For example, in 2016, how many domainers would have thought a domain like shop.link or live.bingo, could go for more than low x,xxx? Apart from the usual suspects in the ngtld crowd, most would be against the idea of them even selling for $1500 bucks, but that's the difference between actual expertise in a niche and those who rely on dissimilar knowledge to speculate.
It's nothing surprising, there are always flukes. Always have been, in pretty much every extension. Still doesn't mean it's a smart investment. Especially when it's almost always the registries making the significant sales.
Also, most successful domainers are very critical of new extensions and tend to avoid them. Even Berkens who is doing better than average has had a bad experience with them, that he posted on his blog.
It's possible that they are not comfortable with new extensions and stuck with their old habits, like R Schwarz for example. But that is not a satisfactory explanation. These people know what they are doing, and they have a proven track record. If nTLDs were a great opportunity, then they would be seizing it. Of course, they know the risk is much higher and the financial reward just may not be there. And even the rules are not the same: no pricing caps, clawbacks, unethical conduct from some registries, bad reputation, in the face of sluggish consumer demand.
Some people will make sales though, but fewer people will be making repeat sales. And even fewer will be making big sales in new extensions. Unless maybe they are a registry.
