snoop said:
You can always argue "it is different this time" but at the end of the day it is a massive drop compared to other extensions. How was the economy during the dot com bust? .... Once you stop looking at the raw numbers it just becomes opinion, at that point all the dubious arguments come out, like this one "Because real live brick and mortar and online companies are registering and using .mobi domains"- How many times has that been said about new extensions? bbc.tv, del.ico.us, mta.info anyone? The success of .mobi can easily be guaged in the numbers, reg volumes, sales prices, it is probably the biggest bust the domain industry has ever seen in terms of the size of the falls. Look at the sales prices, 3 letter .mobi's are now selling for less than .biz's, that is saying something about the confidence people have in this extension.
No matter what side of the pro/con .mobi side you fall on ... no objective discussion can just dismiss the FACT that there has been a sharp cutback in discretionary spending throughout the world in late 2008 into early 2009. And it is MUCH, MUCH larger in magnitude than during the dot com bust.
To compare the 2008/2009 drop cycle numbers of the still-new .mobi today to the .com drop cycles numbers of 2000/2001 given the established nature of the extension is not an "apples to apples" comparison ... (comparatively .com had a decade+ longer head start in its acceptance and application)
Your .biz/.info comparison is closer to being in the "ballpark" of a valid comparison for discussion purposes but your refusal to admit the seriousness and uniqueness of the current economic conditions and their effect on the likelihood of discretionary domain name renewal decisions - AT THE TIME - casts a shadow over your argument and the relevancy of the stats that you originally cited.
Without taking into account the domainers' investing backdrop of the time, your citing of those "9%", 9.5%" , etc. drop stats in such a vacuum makes them just as much "opinion" in this discussion as any other opinions expressed in this thread. "Lies, damn lies, and statistics" ... to paraphrase
... Mark Twain ...
How can one refuse to admit into evidence for this discussion the FACTS? ...
When the anniversary drops happened for .biz (2004) and .info (2003), the general state of the world economy at those times provided far more freed up capital to be spent on speculative renewal fees than in late 2008 and now into early 2009 when the .mobi anniversary drop period is happening
You are the one that brought up the comparison of the NOW 2 yr anniversary .mobi drop cycle with the THEN .biz and THEN .info drops cycles. You CAN NOT draw an accurate and valid comparison without taking into account everything that causes the level of drops ... or ... the level of registrations for that matter.
For example, if .info registrations cost $1.99 each and .mobi registrations cost $7.99 each ... given EVERYTHING else being equal ... which do you think would see more raw number of registrations? And because today a domainer could register 4 times as many $1.99 names as $7.99 names does that mean the $1.99 extension is "better" and will be more "successful"? ... "Better" how? ... and "Successful" at what? You can't compare it until you see the results of all those registrations enough years down the road to erase such pricing discrepancy or other dissimilar market factors.
Aside from food, shelter, clothing, transportation and a few other necessities everything else is optional. The .mobi anniversary drop cycle has come directly during the trough of a great worldwide economic downturn, largest in a half century. For one to say that that has no bearing on the reinvestment of speculative funds (which is what most of a DOMAINERS' reg/renewal fees are in ANY extension) today compared to 5 years ago or 10 years ago is ... is ... well ignoring reality is what it is.
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