.mobi I'm excited... Mobi traffic and the power of compounding.

[jeremyp]

I just returned from a 3-day trip to Hong Kong. Please excuse my writing style. This is, by no means, going to be a work of art.

My portfolio was developed with type-in traffic and strong generic end-use in mind.

I'm so happy to say that August will, by far, be the best month in terms of total # of uniques as well as clicks.

UNIQUES GROWTH:
- 2X growth since May 2007 in total uniques.
- 6X growth since December 2006 in total uniques.

I need to dig into the numbers a bit, as the compounding effect might be greater than this.

EFFECT OF COMPOUNDING
Let's assume for a moment that the momentum continues through the end of 2009 without any enormous news, just organic growth... and that this growth continues to compound at 2X every 4-months. Check out these results.

- 12/2006 - Baseline
- 05/2007 - 300% Growth
- 08/2007 - 600% Growth
- 12/2007 - 1,200% Growth
- 05/2008 - 2,400% Growth
- 08/2008 - 4,800% Growth
- 12/2008 - 9,600% Growth
- 05/2009 - 19,200% Growth
- 08/2009 - 38,400% Growth
- 12/2009 - 76,800% Growth

This is the power of compounding.

Assuming you double every 4 months (and this has been achieved on my portfolio through the first 3, 4-month periods), then every 1 unique viewer on 12/2006 would achiever 768 unique viewers on 12/2009.

Do I believe we will see 7 additional, compounding periods as demonstrated above? No. It won't be this linear. We will likely see compounded growth with a snowball effect based on use and adoption.

Will we see continued compounded growth? Yes. I can say this with a high level of certainty.

And... unlike others, I'll show you my background in this business.

I've been here before.

My .com domain names in the mid-1990's showed similar growth patterns. I missed the 1991-1995 sweet spot in domain name registrations. I did jump in 1996.

I did not chart it. I don't have the stats. I was too young to track anything, including my own life in any way.

I do have a gut for this... and, what I'm seeing is very promising.

Jeremy Padawer

 

[Jeff]

Jeremy, welcome back! :D

Which specific .MOBI domains / portfolio derive these stats ... and how much type-in traffic, uniques, clicks, and revenue from each? :gl:

Are they developed, or parked (all on one platform) ... or a combination? :talk:

Nice stats, thanks for any additional info.
-Jeff

 

[meegwell]

unfortunately, compounding has no relevance to forecasting internet traffic. compunding assumes you keep the growth from the last period...like a less risky investment. internet traffic is all over the board. run a standard deviation on a young website's traffic....nearly unpredictable.

growth is good and you will most likely see continued growth...just forget about your compounding numbers.

 

[jeremyp]

unfortunately, compounding has no relevance to forecasting internet traffic. compunding assumes you keep the growth from the last period...like a less risky investment. internet traffic is all over the board. run a standard deviation on a young website's traffic....nearly unpredictable.

growth is good and you will most likely see continued growth...just forget about your compounding numbers.

Meegwell, I agree in part. Growth tends to be much, much less predictable. My growth so far has been compounded growth. I do not expect 7 additional 4-month periods showing linear compounded growth.

My experience with .com was that good generics rarely lose steam in terms of traffic performance. Monthly gains, in the early years, were simply not lost due to the worldwide massive increase in awareness and traffic.

Jeremy

 

[meegwell]

well the basic finance 101 example is if you are guaranteed 2% growth compounded annually for a dollar investment the first year your investment = $1 x 1.02 = $1.02 but the second year you actually have not $1.04 but more at 1.02 x 1.02.

The 2 cents earned stays put. In fact, the dollar stays put.

"Growth rates" and "compounding" are different subjects.

Regardless, you're psyched and Im psyched for you. I do the same looks forward to "image" what my traffic may be in the future. The variables associated w/ web traffic are worlds apart from those associated w/ interest on low risk investments, where compounding comes in to play.

I think all of us .mobi investors will be doing just fine so long as we hang on to our "investments"....and do whatever it takes to make them grow!

meegwell

 

[garrett200]

Jeremy,

I'm sort of in the position you were back in '96. New to domaining, but having a "gut feeling" about things, as you describe.

So far, my gut feeling has yielded a doubling of traffic every month since I registered my first .mobi in March. It is funny you mention "compounding" because that is exactly the word I was looking for to describe what is happening every month with my traffic - it is compounding!

Thanks for the thread, very interesting indeed....

We are in on the ground floor of a revolution, and I am excited to be a part of it.

 

[MinionDH]

I'm so happy to say that August will, by far, be the best month in terms of total # of uniques as well as clicks.

I couldn't help but notice this as well and as a result I've been buying many .mobi domains on the aftermarket. There are a lot of gems out there that are completely underpriced and now is the time to take advantage.

My advice: stop registering available .mobi's and focus on aftermarket generic intent type-in traffic domains. I recently purchased a domain with 2 million+ Overture (10,000+ with *.COM* extension) for only mid $x,xxx and I continue find deals like this on a daily basis.. so save up a little cash and head on over to Sedo/Afteric. Your heirs will thank you

 

[scandiman]

I recently purchased a domain with 2 million+ Overture (10,000+ with extension) for only mid $x,xxx and I continue find deals like this on a daily basis.. so save up a little cash and head on over to Sedo/Afteric. Your heirs will thank you

10,000 OVT with ext, are you talking about a .mobi? If so, please do tell, PM if you must.

I totally agree about the aftermarket.

 

[-REECE-]

I've received around 600 uniques monthly to my non-parked, non-developed .mobis. For those wondering what on Earth I'm talking about, I prefer to use my names as redirects to non-publicized, intentionally not indexed, poorly developed sites, rather than park them.

This way, I can accurately guage traffic to my names without any SE bias. Nevertheless, I'm quite happy with this. Already, these stats (7200 uniques over a year averaged out) should be able to pay for about 1/4 of my renewal costs. Like Jeremy said, I have no doubt whatsoever that we'll continue to see more and more traffic.

I'm just hoping it's at least 4x as much as currently so I can break-even

 

[onassis]

I totally agree with marketplace especially I start out .mobi late at May.

I realized that the quality of generics name in marketplace are dropping recently.

It look positive as peoples are hanging to their generics name as mtld are pushing the premium names out sooner than expected.

 

[Work In Progress]

I'm happy to report that my parked mobi's are doing as expected...mostly holding their own. Namedrive stats this month were all over the place. I'm having a hard time trusting stats that show 1 name getting over 200 uniques while all of the others are getting less than 10 each. :td: But the past week, hits sem to be more across the board (as well as CTR)

On the more posative side, stats for my developed sites are really going up. Every month, I see advancment, but this month, I'm close to or exceeding double the traffic of last month. A majority of vistors are bookmarking and I'm also seeing increase in ad clicks. Two of my sites gaining steam and getting regular visits are not even finished yet!

again...just more incentive to develop ....which is what I'll continue to do.

 

[dag]

While my overall .mobi parked page visits (at NameDrive) are about the same (1400), this has by far been the best month for clicks -- a whopping 29! Right...not very impressive in and of itself, but if this is the beginning of a trend, I'm quite happy with that.

 

[MinionDH]

10,000 OVT with ext, are you talking about a .mobi? If so, please do tell, PM if you must.

Yes, a .mobi domain but *OVT with ext represents .COM* (the stats are actually much higher than I stated) The sale should be finalized/transferred within the next week and I'll be happy to share at that time. In the meantime, head on over to Sedo/Afternic and start looking for bargains

 

[garrett200]

Yes, a .mobi domain (the stats are actually much higher than I stated) The sale should be finalized/transferred within the next week and I'll be happy to share at that time. In the meantime, head on over to Sedo/Afternic and start looking for bargains

Wow, I'm trying to think what .mobi name could possibly have that kind of ovt result WITH ext??? Must be a whopper!

 

[DnPresident]

I Parked CreamPuff.mobi around a week or so a go just after regged it and it looks like it's going to do alright. Already making money and a nice RPC as well.

Glad I regged it now.

Got CreamPuff.us the same day but just parked it, so I'll be interested to compare the two names parking stats.

 

[garrett200]

Nice name, "cream puff", I'm surprised that was still available so late in the game.

 

[Jasonn]

Yes, a .mobi domain (the stats are actually much higher than I stated) The sale should be finalized/transferred within the next week and I'll be happy to share at that time. In the meantime, head on over to Sedo/Afternic and start looking for bargains

Just to be clear, you mean the .mobi extention had 10,000 ovt? Not the .com version? I can't imagine mobi being that popular now that people are tying it in so much unless possibly it was a developed site...even then i can't see it..yet.

 

[hawkeye]

Yes, a .mobi domain (the stats are actually much higher than I stated) The sale should be finalized/transferred within the next week and I'll be happy to share at that time. In the meantime, head on over to Sedo/Afternic and start looking for bargains

As sex.mobi 'doesn't return any results', I don't think the name he references is with the .mobi. Maybe a .com name with those results, but 10K with the mobi extension, uhhh...

 

[dag]

As sex.mobi 'doesn't return any results', I don't think the name he references is with the .mobi. Maybe a .com name with those results, but 10K with the mobi extension, uhhh...

Hey, maybe he bought MTLD.mobi! :tu:

 

[Jasonn]

As sex.mobi 'doesn't return any results', I don't think the name he references is with the .mobi. Maybe a .com name with those results, but 10K with the mobi extension, uhhh...

especially since overture hasn't updated since january, its unlikely that any mobi domain would have any results. Now 10 on the keyword...thats nothing special really.