discuss Future of new gTLDs in next 5 years.

[Dmytros]

Hello! Some time I am investing in gTLD domains, the reason - I see future in them. People in todays reality want to become more individual and personalized.

I cannot understand domainers investing in gTLDs and then saying "that's crap", "read my lips, gTLD are D.E.A.D", and etc.

What are you doing investing in names like zxzxzx.life or unclebobsmith.catering? This have no sence, if you are trying to fool someone, you are fooling only yourself.

One of the reasons of developing gTLD is to stop market speculations. Now anyone should have name he always dreamed for! BUT, there is also the names which are really unique, names prices on .shop, like example, for 150.000$

Simply - real.life, street.fashion, ideal.menu, winter.clothing, easy.money, etc. There is such names in ANY extension, and believe me, they COST their renewal fees...

And now, how do you think, what are the perspectives of such gTLDs? How many years we need to make generic gTLDs fully implemented in virtual life of any person in this world? How many gTLD auctions should rise before that?

That's a question like when Bitcoin will cost 10.000$ or when robots should be in any house

Thanks!

 

[dordomai]

Why are you wasting your time with domaining? With your crystal ball that tells the future or your advanced super-hero skills that allow you speculate accurately what markets will do, you should be trading in high yield stocks and commodities or making billions with forex.

I don't have any special knowledge. Most domainers know that the Gs are failing. It is just they don't bother to argue with the cultists.

Of course you can not make good predictions about the future but it is common sense. If someone tells me that I should invest in silver because it will soon be worth more than gold I can tell you what the outcome will be and I don't need a crystal ball for that.

The only FACTS about domaining is that there are NO facts, all the data we get is manipulated and inaccurate.

there are some facts. .net will never be worth more than .com for example.

 

[deez007]

I don't have any special knowledge. Most domainers know that the Gs are failing. It is just they don't bother to argue with the cultists.

Of course you can not make good predictions about the future but it is common sense. If someone tells me that I should invest in silver because it will soon be worth more than gold I can tell you what the outcome will be and I don't need a crystal ball for that.



there are some facts. .net will never be worth more than .com for example.

Yet again, you have merely proven that you think based on what you have been told.

Most domainers KNOW nGTLD's are failing? really - please show me how you come to this conclusion.
As for arguing with cultists... I'm going to repeat myself ... most folks who are pro nGTLD's are not ANTI .com's ...most of us probably have more .com's in our inventory than nGTLD's ... so that hardly makes us cultist. The only cultist here are the .com folks... who are anti nGTLD and use any chance they get to cultishly argue with people that see the potential value of nGTLD's.

Your example using silver and gold... - Why is gold more valuable than silver? - is it because silver is not as rare as gold?...NOPE! Is it because Silver is not as strong or durable as gold?.....NOPE! is it because we have been told it's more valuable and we have been conditioned to believe it is more valuable... therefore the value is purely perceived value. YEP!

"From "The origin of metallic currency and weight standards" By Sir William Ridgeway (Google books); University Press, 1892

... We saw that the Arabs of the Soudan down to the present day prefer silver to gold whilst in the earlier part of the present century when Japan was opened to European commerce the Japanese eagerly exchanged gold for silver at the rate of one to three and even less as they possessed no native silver and were charmed with the beauty of the little known metal.

... It is almost certain that in all countries at one stage silver must have been of higher value than gold.

Afterwards as its production became greater it became equal in value and finally little by little much less valuable until at last the relation between the metals is 1/22."

So for you to assume that silver will NEVER be worth more than gold again, would mean you have to KNOW the future. Whilst it may be unlikely that does not mean it can NEVER happen.

As far as .net never being worth more than .com ....well, it's probably very very very unlikely...however I will refrain from saying NEVER! - reason being, is like I said earlier... the market is susceptible to manipulation, just like the stock market and the forex market. The ones that are making billions have the ability and resources to influence the marketplace. If some of those same minds get into domaining and decide.. let's scoop up all the premium .net domains and dirt cheap prices then start to create a higher perceived value of .net domains by loading the market with lots of fake sales for .net domains at inflated prices ...creating the perception that .nets are on the rise then the perceived value of .nets will go up.... could it surpass .com's value..who knows, maybe..... again it's highly unlikely but to say it is impossible and it could NEVER happen is presumptious...

 

[dordomai]

So for you to assume that silver will NEVER be worth more than gold again, would mean you have to KNOW the future. Whilst it may be unlikely that does not mean it can NEVER happen.

As far as .net never being worth more than .com ....well, it's probably very very very unlikely...however I will refrain from saying NEVER! - reason being, is like I said earlier... the market is susceptible to manipulation, just like the stock market and the forex market

do you think it is a good idea to exchange gold for silver?
do you think it is a good idea to exchange your .coms for .nets?
do you believe it is a good idea to assume that word.word will be as valuable wordword.com?

Most domainers KNOW nGTLD's are failing? really - please show me how you come to this conclusion.

Most proponents have join dates from the past 2 years. They bought some and are hoping for a big payoff. Most of the others are not so optimistic.

 

[deez007]

do you think it is a good idea to exchange gold for silver?
do you think it is a good idea to exchange your .coms for .nets?
do you believe it is a good idea to assume that word.word will be as valuable wordword.com?

Hmmm you proposed those ideas/concepts - and said all 3 cases it would NEVER happen.

My argument was clear! - One can not say something will NEVER happen...

If you read and comprehend my answers, I clearly say that "well, it's probably very very very unlikely...however I will refrain from saying NEVER!" - yet u asking me if I think it's a good idea to swop .com's for .net

The point was that you are using the same mentality of assuming you KNOW what's going to happen without any possibility of contestation. My reply was merely to highlight that what you said was NEVER going to happen...was not an absolute and that your thinking was flawed.

One ur last point... word.word vs wordword.com - yes, I do think it's possible that word.word would be more valuable than wordword.com

 

[doubleU]

The registries of most of the new gTLDs have designed the pricing and renewal of domains within their namespace to 'take out the middleman', effectively creaming the profits that otherwise would have gone to the smartest/luckiest domainers.

All things considered, I believe they have a future without the middleman/domainer but it may take more than 5 years for there widespread adoption to take place.

 

[dordomai]

The registries of most of the new gTLDs have designed the pricing and renewal of domains within their namespace to 'take out the middleman', effectively creaming the profits that otherwise would have gone to the smartest/luckiest domainers.

another good point. future for nGTLDs would not necessarily mean future for investors.

I believe that some registries will make good money from the Gs but i think for most investors they will be dead.

I don't think they will ever be as popular or widespread as .com or ccTLDs and we already know that alternative extensions (see .net) never sold for big bucks.

 

[nothere]

But solid GTLD keywords will continue to sell to end users who can't get the .com, or are looking outside the box. ...There will always be a few dozen keywords in each extension which will sell thru, smart people are holding them, the ones with 300+ renewals for the most part are dead in the water, as nobody wants to touch them.

If they gtld extension is not used or known widely stick a fork in it, users will wonder about the url.

.web and .shop I guess. The rest....

Does anyone know what happens with the names when the company that runs .myextension is n longer solvent? As names dwindle in the hundreds, even registrar will make no money.

 

[gpmgroup]

ICANN has a clean up program where other registries can take over any failing new gTLDs, there is also a contingency fund to keep any unviable ones around for a couple of years. A bigger problem for registrants could occurr before that point, if a registry decides to keep upping prices to try and stem losses.

 

[Kate]

The thread title is: Future of new gTLDs in next 5 years.
Why not talk about the last 3 years ? When people are not satisfied with the present, they keep moving the goalposts.
While it's hard to predict the future, those who have studied the past and observe the present are bound to make better predictions than those who ignore the past and the present completely (they sure know better).

Future of new gTLDs in next 5 years ?
.com and ccTLDs going strong.
New gTLDs stagnating.
Business as usual.

This is my prediction. See you in five years.

 

[Fancy.domains]

I have had a good 3 years with my new gTLDs. I have sold about 100 of them.

I have no idea about the coming years, but if I should predict something, I think it will be ok. Maybe even better than ok.

Edit: I have actually got three offers the last eight days. Two were high $xxx and one were a low $xxxx. But I wanted a little more on each of them. I am still negotiating on one of them.

 

[168]

what does make .tech better than .tv?

Truth is .tv is better and it is still not very successful. It is also better than .media. Wait 20 years and the best TLDs will be as popular as .tv.

.xxx is great. Adult is the largest niche on the net. .xxx is very simple to remember, it is short. A great extension. In theory. In practice it is not successful.

you can dream, hope and fantasize but the facts will not change.

if you think .tech will make it and .tv not and if you think .global will take off because it is much better than .xxx then think again.

.xxx, .tv and .asia have NOT done too well and yours will do even worse because of the much larger supply that is available now.



Individuals with personal blogs paying you low $xxx for your premiums.


In the US the highest growth rates are already behind us. Sure some substantial growth will happen but I wouldn't expect miracles. It is not 2003 anymore.

Keep in mind that the nGTLDs are mostly English language extensions.



the number of yesterday domain sales that were bigger than $500 as reported on Namebio is 67. That is 24455 each year.

You get a like on this one because at least some truth is there.
First, one day of sales does not equate to 365. That leap is a big one.
Agree. US the highest growth rates are already behind us.
Agree. The extensions you like will not fail they just have a limited scope compared to .Global/.Media/.Tech
The fact that the meanings of my examples are ubiquitous and over the top germane to a Global economy gives them a built
in value and immediate respect in the business world at large. NOBODY is confused about the relevant meaning of these
extensions.
Your choices have a built in value with limited scope and not nearly as much respect in the Global economy due to the
nature of the extensions being Niche. Could one build a billion dollar business on any of them? Yes of course.
.xxx is very limited and not one most would want to be associated with.
.tv ? At the time .tv launched people didn't associate TV with the internet. intro way too early. by the time tech caught up
there were many platforms and cable. no demand for .TV Now, .tv has competition like .video which is where the mass
entertainment is located and well received. TV is going by by just like the typewriter and rotary phone.
The difference is the examples I use can build many many more billion dollar businesses.
.asia ? Either a CED or CEA contact is required when registering a .ASIA domain. If you are familiar with the asian culture
the last thing a business wants is to be pigeon holed to that market., Global appeal is always going to
be the best choice unless the business is limited to the region in addition to more competition from the New "G"s
The Global market will continue to favor English for sometime longer simply because it's the primary business language.
Chinese language has the most users but not on the internet.
Deez007 is spot on :
Domaining much like the stock market is a smoke and mirrors game, the so called experts and traders have NO CLUE whats really going to happen, all they can do is speculate based on historic data. When a new commodity is introduced into the marketplace, that does not have sufficient historical sales data to analyze, trying to use other commodities historic sales data as a comparison to the new commodities current trajectory or using only recent data to try and determine the future value of the commodity is downright stupidity.
People that follow New "G"s follow a different path to analysis. It's still an unquantifiable abstract however the logic that 1,
1, tld or 6 even if you count the failed (by market lack of interest) early additions will suffice the global market is a no brainer
NOT. MYOPIC? YES. So what makes sense? Of course we are all guessing. My extensive experience in the real world, in the
epicenter of all things internet, the grandaddy of tech, Silicon Valley, gives me loads of insight to the trajectory of adoption.
My solid understanding of the asian culture and decent understanding of the india culture is an additional bonus.
As an investor in many areas, I know what I know and it has served me well. What I don't know I have access to many many
Mentors.
So if your "PLAN" works for you, great! No doubt it will work for some, it's just different. Not better or worse just different.
There is no doubt my "PLAN" will work for me because it already has and I anticipate you will see some of my investments go
public and become known globally. Think Global or go home.
Happy Hunting!

 

[MarkedMarket]

An article from yesterday titled "Are the New Domain Extensions Worth It?"

http://www.business2community.com/online-marketing/new-domain-extensions-worth-01774678

 

[dumindu89]

OP has the correct view about new TLDs. Don't get caught to the people who are predicting that new gTLDs are total crap and they are failing. Most of such people own a portfolio of crappy useless .COMs and they want to show that their crappy .COM portfolio worth than new TLDs.

Those people are comparing more than 25 years old strong person with less than 5 years old babies which is ridiculous.

If you have nice keyword domains or dictionary word domains with new extensions be positive and let them to grow and add value. However, the pricing of the new TLDs is a key concern and you have to manage that.

Cheers

 

[168]

The registries of most of the new gTLDs have designed the pricing and renewal of domains within their namespace to 'take out the middleman', effectively creaming the profits that otherwise would have gone to the smartest/luckiest domainers.

All things considered, I believe they have a future without the middleman/domainer but it may take more than 5 years for there widespread adoption to take place.

Agree, lots of domains were kept out of the hands that could afford large quantities and have backdoor resources that most domainers don't have access to anyway. Those domains will sit longer too regardless of who's hand their in.
I am very happy to get my choices early on before the greed set in. That boat has sailed. I'm hoping to see some nice drops while
the .commie camp competes with large platforms for inventory.
Happy Hunting!

 

[168]

An article from yesterday titled "Are the New Domain Extensions Worth It?"
business2community.com/online-marketing/new-domain-extensions-worth-01774678

WOW . end users that aren't confused. Dordomai, Kate, save them. It's not too late. Explain how any crappy legacy is better just because.
Thanks for posting ! More real world data!
Cheers

 

[dumindu89]

For the people who don't accept that the .COM era has gone.

http://blog.europeandomaincentre.com/best-new-tld/#

Let's look at some companies that already accepted that .COM era has gone

http://www.next100.bmw
http://nic.microsoft
https://www.home.barclays
http://global.canon
https://upshot.agency
http://numerical.recipes (They prefer this domain over two letter NR.com amazing .COM boom hahaha)

Even Google has accepted that .COM era has gone.
https://abc.xyz
https://www.registry.google

But some pundits are still telling .COM still rocks. I think we should appoint them as CEOs of these companies because those pundits may have better knowledge to take that position and advice them to rollback and still we are in .COM boom.

 

[168]

MarrySnikles OP?

Quite an impressive line up in the mentor/investor page. Wheres Marry?

"Our Real Name Policy is thus a tool which helps you to facilitate a successful negotiation process"
"Not only does it increase the level of trust during the talks"......



Cheers

 

[Dmytros]

MarrySnikles OP?

Quite an impressive line up in the mentor/investor page. Wheres Marry?

"Our Real Name Policy is thus a tool which helps you to facilitate a successful negotiation process"
"Not only does it increase the level of trust during the talks"......

Cheers

Haha.

"168" - Real Name? Sure? Some done deals here by me? Someone offended? Best regards!)

Thread is very nice, because the registry knows the business, they ARE the business itself, and they create rules. If they say gTLD are good - they are good, people will buy them, in year 2025 there will be 25-50% projects on gTLDs. This business worth billions, this people will not mistake, only perhaps if Trump will think otherwise.

Cheers.

 

[168]

Haha.

"168" - Real Name? Sure? Some done deals here by me? Someone offended? Best regards!)

Thread is very nice, because the registry knows the business, they ARE the business itself, and they create rules. If they say gTLD are good - they are good, people will buy them, in year 2025 there will be 25-50% projects on gTLDs. This business worth billions, this people will not mistake, only perhaps if Trump will think otherwise.

Cheers.

Hey that real name stuff is yours not mine!

"they ARE the business itself," they create rules. If they say gTLD are good - they are good
Those guys are good but seriously? Did they teach you that? Good news for me and the rest of the cult.
Forget about Trump. Check out what the word means in Europe. It's the one and only way around his bazzillion
TM's. Good for a few chuckles. His line of global BBF's is getting longer by the day. Hopefully that will keep him
busy to the end of his term.
Thanks for getting back on. Since this is your thread your feedback would be greatly appreciated!
Happy Hunting!

 

[MarkedMarket]

WOW . end users that aren't confused. Dordomai, Kate, save them. It's not too late. Explain how any crappy legacy is better just because.
Thanks for posting ! More real world data!
Cheers

For the new GTLD lovers, another article that appeared today with more "real world data": http://rightside.news/branded-short-link

The names are not impressive (no single keyword domains), but apparently they are being used...

http://Vineworks.GIVES
http://SecureThe.NEWS
http://WebDesignCost.NINJA

 

[168]

For the new GTLD lovers, another article that appeared today with more "real world data":

thanks, this is exactly one indicator I've been looking for.
Big Brands using additional domains for a specific function that adds value.
This is a good contribution.
It's probably going to be a while for the shorties since most are in a hold for now.
Thanks again!
Cheers

Chick-fil-A, Microsoft, and Lindt Chocolate all use .SOCIAL to connect with their customers on Twitter and Facebook. In a crowded social media landscape, these companies want to gain every advantage they can, and branded short links have been shown to increase audience engagement versus generic shorteners.

 

[Harold Glascock]

Even before new TLDs one could have argued there was an oversupply of aftermarket domain names. 98-99% of industry inventory did not sell in a typical year. Now we have another 22-25 million aftermarket domains. Industry turnover may actually be under 1% now. Experienced domainers generally consider TLDs like .biz, .info, .mobi to be undesirable TLDs for investment. .Biz has two million registrations, .Mobi more than 600k registrations and .Info more than 5 million registrations. Yet of the more than one thousand new TLDs, after three years fewer than 30 even have 100k registrations. Only ten have more than 500k registrations. Only .XYZ has more registrations than .Info and most of those are due to cheap promos. Registrations are just a stat as what really matters is mindshare - how often do people see that TLD in usage for sites they actually visit. How often do you buy something from a ..Link or .Online website? Do you view .Video websites or Youtube.com? Do you buy from Amazon.com or something.shop?

New tlds offer low-budget buyers options. However, just like .Net, .CO, .TV, .ME, .Biz, making money from investments in these new extensions is going to be a lot more difficult than merely registering them. There needs to be a massive shift in sentiment toward aftermarket domain names as tools for promoting business products and services. Currently domain investors are viewed as parasites, squatters, online scammers. Until that changes, new TLD investments will be challenging for most. Of course there will be the occasional lottery winner who will be ohailed as proof that nTLDs are doing fine. But do you buy lottery tickets based on the winning numbers from last week?

Yes, absolutely mindshare is the key determinant. Paul Stahura of Donuts bases his calculus on the metaphor of land rush attraction equating .coms to Monopoly Game Park Avenue. He sees gTlds as the new frontier a.k.a. Las Vegas opportunity set.
It's hard not to play ball with gTLDs when we see Googledom expanding to abc.xyz. What does this bellwether know that we don't know? Is this just a pied piper move?
To get a better understanding of domain space evolving mindshare we need to build an algorithm that captures data points like the age and sex of domain buyers and the breakdown of corporate brand buyers versus personal use purchasers.
This data + trend projection + mobile app penetration forecasting can tease apart what purposes are/will be served by gTLD extension use.
At the macro level, I'm worried that there are already way too many gTLDs in the wild now, let alone in 3 years when another batch is released. I'm also concerned about ICANNs role/competency in marketing/popularizing gTLDs.
Frank Schilling and Donuts Management Team need to help create a trustworthy mindshare for gTLDs because the gestation period is just too long for most of us in the trenches.
Why don't we start by thoroughly evaluating the pros and cons of the top 5 gTLDs currently available including .xyz, .club and .design?

 

[dordomai]

why is.xyz one of the top 5? .co and .cc and .net and even .org are better choices..

 

[nothere]

Yes, absolutely mindshare is the key determinant. Paul Stahura of Donuts bases his calculus on the metaphor of land rush attraction equating ......

His opinion is biased.

It's hard not to play ball with gTLDs when we see Googledom expanding to abc.xyz. What does this bellwether know that we don't know? Is this just a pied piper move?

If I had abc.com I'm 100% sure that Google would offer me at least $10 mil and move their site to abc.com. Ya think Google did this because they wanted to ?
Have you seen who has abc.com?

.web, .shop, .club and maybe one or two more might do well. As for the rest....

 

[dordomai]

http://domainingtips.com/the-post-i-never-wanted-to-write-new-gtld-conclusions.html

My Personal Experience

Some of you have followed the case study I published last year. I invested in several new gTLDs and all in all, pretty much broke even or ok, maybe I’m a wee bit profitable. But nothing noteworthy by any means. I’ve been investing in domains for several years. I am a very calculated buyer. I have various venues (including this blog) at my disposal whenever I want to sell… in other words, I’m better-positioned than most domainers to do well.

I gave it my best and after drawing the line, can safely conclude it wasn’t worth it. After factoring in the time I invested as well, what can I say except “thanks but I’ll pass” and this brings us to my first argument (1): if someone like me barely managed to make a few pennies, the average domainer is anything but well-positioned.

Further Anecdotal Evidence

I keep in touch with a lot of domainers and quite frankly, I’ve yet to come across someone who told me he did very well with new gTLDs. And by very well, I mean being more than just reasonably profitable after drawing the line, not merely having a solid sale or two under your belt.

http://domainingtips.com/even-selling-decent-new-gtlds-for-25-bucks-is-hard.html

Even Selling Decent New gTLDs for 25 Bucks Is Hard

As someone who runs a domain sales newsletter, observing the discrepancy between selling new gTLDs and selling dot coms is truly fascinating.

People are, for example, crazy about LLLL dot coms at this point. Extremely easy to sell, ridiculously easy. If someone contacts me via email and asks me to sell some LLLLs at the current market price, I can run the domains in question by a few buyers on Skype and have them sold in minutes. Literally minutes.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, I tried selling Blogging.Services for 50 bucks