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Domain name pricing model: Guess the number of marbles in the jar - executepay(dot)com

Labeled as domain in Domain Appraisal started by Jason Morris, Aug 4, 2019.

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  1. Jason Morris

    Jason Morris Established Member

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    A while back I heard about this idea that if you have a jar of marbles, and ask 25 people to guess how many marbles are in the jar, then add them all up (exclude the highest and lowest guess) and divide by 23 you get the right number of marbles, or at least a very close estimate.

    Which brings me to the idea that - if 25 domain investors give valuation of a domain name, and we apply the same principals, would this work?

    related: thoughts on a price for executepay(dot)com?
     
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  2. DomainRecap

    DomainRecap Top Member VIP

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    On a side note, I love those games, and have won a pile in my lifetime - for some reason my brain understands the height/width and I've won everything from computers to home theaters on these things.

    I remember walking by one at my kid's school, doing a quick but of math in my head and spitting out a number - it turned out to be off by less than 5, and she won a set of prizes. No idea why, I'm just good at it.

    And no, I am not good at counting cards (or toothpicks), just counting marbles in a jar. :xf.confused:
     
  3. namemarket

    namemarket Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I think I heard something similar to that also on TV or maybe youtube.

    A very interesting idea which may in-fact work!

    It would be nice if there was an easy way to test it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
  4. Jason Morris

    Jason Morris Established Member

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    I happen to test things at my day job, there is a way indeed! I’m honestly going to try this technique out, I just need 25 opinions.
     
  5. namemarket

    namemarket Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Count me in please.

    If it works we can put godaddy and estibot valuations out of business!
     
  6. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Member VIP

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    Well let's get the party started!

    ExecutePay(dot)com
    $4,000.00

    24 more appraisal's needed.
     
  7. Jason Morris

    Jason Morris Established Member

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    bull by the horn, thanks friend.
     
  8. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent Gold Account VIP

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    But isn't the problem that we see other's estimates and are influenced by them? Don't we need to do this each individually then submit them?
     
  9. Alexej K

    Alexej K Established Member

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    As @Bob Hawkes says, needs to be done individually without people knowing how others guessed.

    It's one of the experiments of Wisdom of the crowd theory. - altho as far as I know it doesn't suggest to take out lowest/highest guess, but simply average of all. Saying that it doesn't sound too much of a stretch to discard outliers from both ends where the the sample size is relatively small (25 in this case)
     
  10. BaileyUK

    BaileyUK Top Member VIP

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    Certainly a fun mind exercise for the Jar of marbles but I really can't see how this technique can relate to Domain price valuations

    The human mind is well capable, even by just visual inspection, of making a guesstimate of capacity based on height and circumference and volume, even if the jar varies at several points. (then you treat it as if it is several individual jars added up) Most mathematical trained minds are going to be within 20% of the count. A pen and paper will probably bring that down to within 10%

    You can even go to random sized marbles (evenly distributed) and apply. - Domainers, however are a biased bunch. You'd need to qualify the minds of your 25 guesstimates (experience) to have any real hopes of coming close
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
  11. BaileyUK

    BaileyUK Top Member VIP

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    Got to admire the OP's method of getting his/her domain name valuation request noticed though. So much better than all those so called "Official ********* domain name extension etc etc discussion" threads. Just put out there on NP's so as to list their own domains.

    24 more appraisal's needed.

    Sorry but, I don't think you'd want to see my valuation
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
  12. Mister Funsky

    Mister Funsky Top Member VIP

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    Okay, I'll play. The last part of the two word combo is strong but the first brings to mind people being quickly barbecued, dangling from a rope or up against a wall.

    All that having been said, it makes it memorable so that gives it a hand up....so, if it were mine I would have a buy it now of 3200 with a min offer of 1200 (you would use my higher figure for the experiment).

    We need 23 more...
     
  13. namemarket

    namemarket Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    That is exactly right Bob and thanks for pointing it out. There's no way it can work if influenced by what others say or other valuations such as GD appraisal tool for example.

    It must be without any bias and influence, For example when I looked at the gumball or marble counting video the other guesses were not disclosed.

    P.S. according to mathematicians 30 is a minimum sample size so it should be 30 or more, not 25, imo.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2019
  14. bluetooth

    bluetooth New Member

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    I think this was featured on Braingames (TV) show.
     
  15. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent Gold Account VIP

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    Wouldn't the easy way to make this anonymous and not influence each other if the OP asked people to DM with their opinion, and any comments, and then once 25 (or 30 as @namemarket suggests) have been submitted we see the estimates and computation result. By the way I would not only favour taking out the two extreme values, but also I think the median, that is the middle of the ordered set, would be a better estimate of the group belief.

    So what say you, @Jason Morris are you open to people DMing you? No one do that until he has responded. I do understand it clutters up your message box.

    Bob
     
  16. bluetooth

    bluetooth New Member

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    ...just for kicks, I tried a series of free valuations a while ago for one of my domains... the range was 250 dollars to over 30 thousand, quite helpful. <sarc/>
     
  17. namemarket

    namemarket Top Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I am also in strong favor of removing the the lowest and highest as being ouliers maybe total of 4 outliers 2 low and 2 high so 32 results would count 28.

    It would be great if it could be programmed (sounds fairly easy to code) and automated.
     
  18. Jason Morris

    Jason Morris Established Member

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    yes @Bob Hawkes this is a great idea, and I completely agree the estimates need to be secret as to not influence others.

    Now I just need to determine if I need to make a new thread or keep on this one. But yes, anyone can DM me their opinion - and after I get 25, I'll publish the list (all names will be omitted) with estimates and the median value. I'm pretty comfortable in saying that I'll go ahead and list it as a BIN at the median (probably).
     
  19. Jason Morris

    Jason Morris Established Member

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    ok folks - here we go - new rules to the domain valuation game (after some great feedback). I think we need 25 responses in DM form please. Thanks for participating.

    1. The domain: executepay.com
    2. The estimate: please DM me your estimated Buy-It-Now
    3. The result: once I get 25 responses, I'll upload a file with all the estimates (names of those who gave estimates will not be listed) and the median price
    4. The BIN: I will update the BIN price of the domain to that price
     
  20. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Member VIP

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  21. EZPZYO

    EZPZYO Hack IT Crack IT VIP

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  22. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO ICA Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I don't think this really works for domains personally. The value is far too subjective.
    There are reseller and end user prices. Any random .COM can sell for $10K+ if the likelihood is low enough.

    The examples like marbles or jelly beans in a jar are a quantifiable number. There is nothing subjective about it.

    I think you would need more objective criteria really. For instance let's say you think this domain might sell for $2,500 but it would take (10) years. Then the value is not really $2,500 right now as you have to factor in time value as well.

    If you had to value the domain on what it is worth right now, that would be reseller. That would yield a much different number if you took time out of the equation.

    Brad
     
  23. Jason Morris

    Jason Morris Established Member

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    I'm not looking for the value of the domain exactly that really is subjective and has a lot of dependencies. I'm looking for a BIN price - which is about the value I would sell it for right now if someone wanted to do the easiest thing and click the button to buy it. Great comments though, I see exactly where you're coming from.
     
  24. BaileyUK

    BaileyUK Top Member VIP

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    again, I'm going to add my pennies worth. I see the domain is listed at around $1,000 and no other extensions registered. I admire you tenacity in engaging with NP members But, the domain is just very poor.

    This jar - doesn't contain any marbles. full-stop
     
  25. Lord Antares

    Lord Antares Member VIP

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    What is so amazing about this?

    You are telling me that the average of 25 appraisals is going to be more accurate than 1? Wow, never would have guessed that.

    Almost as if multiple people knew more than one person.
     

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