Chinese LLLL.com bubble!?

[freezer]

Is it a somewhat good estimate that
chinese LLLL.com premiums are at at least $1billion value today?
Unlike Number .coms chinese premium LLLL.com boomed in value in a very short period.
Will they hold their value or is it the biggest BUBBLE ever seen in domains?

Share your thoughts please

 

[krx]

Can anyone translate this:

 

[vickyhunter]

Excellent analysis. I agree 100 %.

There are few large difference between 2008-2009 and now (2015):
- all LLLL.com were regged on November 2, 2007. Financial crisis, caused by subprime lending, which started in summer 2007, developed into world crisis in 2008, causing Lehman Brothers to go into bancruptcy on September 15, 2008. The result was the worst financial crisis since Great Depression in 1930ies. Even during the crisis, all LLLL.com remained registered, there were no LLLL.com for handreg (probably except for max. 3 days at one point of time, when several thousands LLLL.com dropped at once). All LLLL.com dropping were immediatly dropcatched.
- currently stock markets, real estate prices in the USA are doing well. NY real estate prices already exceed previous (pre-2008 cirisis) peek prices. Chineese economy is much stronger now than in 2008 (even after recent shares decline). China has now larger middle class than the US (see yesterday's article, quoted several times on NP).
- in 2007 people were used to have LLLL.com handregged. In 2015, people used that LLLL.com can not be handregged since 8 years.
- in 2008-2009, new GTLD concept promoted by ICANN was weighting on the .com prices - people were afraid .com will lose its appeal. Now, after launch of numerous gtld, we see that the concerns were overdone, and the .com shines as a king further. I.e. .com will remain the one and only top domain zone. And we know what happens to top zones in real estate (i.e. Manhattan) - they skyrocket. The same for .com - LL.com, LLL.com, LLLL.com are experiencing rise on a huge demand for the one and only limited supply memorable short domains in .com.
- Special comment on CHIPs: in my understanding, the chinese abbreviations in LLLL.com often consist of 2 words, not of 4 words as in western world, probably this makes CHIPs more desirable that normal western LLLL.com

Disclaimer:
All above is imho. When making your domain investments, you need to make your own research and not to rely on other opinions or previous trends.

 

[vickyhunter]

Correction. I got one more today. That's makes it five below the market prices.

Yeah Flippa allows auction listings or classified listings, which are free and allow buyers to contact you with private offers. I'm guessing there are some buyers that send out bulk low ball offers hoping someone will sell. I think there is a member on Namepros who has gotten a couple below market value deals at Flippa lately.

 

[italiandragon]

Yes, it is a bubble, just like there was a bubble in 2006-2008 when all LLLL.com's got registered, min prices for the worst LLLL.com's went up to $75 or so during peak times, but shortly after there was a major crash and in 2009 they were practically worthless again.
Chinese LLLL.com's prices went up at ridiculous rates, I see no reason for such high values, such sharp growth is unsustainable. It might crash soon, or it might hit $1500, or $2000 first, but I'm pretty sure prices will drop back to more realistic levels where they were before.
Most actual end users can't afford the kind of prices that random LLLL.com's are selling at already.
I sold all my chinese premiums recently and planning to sell a few more LLLL.com's as well before it's too late...

There are still some opportunities to make money on this while people constantly pay even higher prices for chinese premiums, but I'd be very careful with holding on to big portfolios for a while..

There are more domainers around the world, more companies, more end-users and the pool of available short domains keep decreasing each day.

Add to that speculation, the need for Chinese investors to park their money outside of the local taxman/government and you see that unlike Pokemon cards (which anyway got bubble prices as well) given the fact LLLL.com are a fixed number, each day even the so called "crappier unpronunciable" becomes rarer than the day before and once you get to the point that a Country with 1 Billion + people becomes wealthy, you get millions of new investors which buy absolutely anything they can.

Examples lately are in every asset class, just Google it.

Here some recent links:

USA

http://kalw.org/post/competitive-so...tional-chinese-buyers-against-locals#stream/0

AUSTRALIA

http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/articl...ors-outbidding-hardworking-australian-racists

EUROPE

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-23/china-wants-to-buy-europe

http://www.economist.com/news/busin...-coming-under-chinese-ownership-gone-shopping

 

[Jen-Sin]

Can anyone translate this:
Show attachment 17542

易名 seems like the name of the registrar eName.
爱名 seems like the name of the registrar 22.cn.

四声母 is 4 characters.

4 Letters is 四字母.
4 Numbers is 四数字.

Did my translations put your doubts in context of where you found those words?

 

[gladdy]

I can add that IPV6 addresses start to be more and more in use,
so to avoid to typing long IPV6 adress into the browser will increase demand for short domains.
Plus add here massive Internet of things IOT boom for next years.

There are more domainers around the world, more companies, more end-users and the pool of available short domains keep decreasing each day.

Add to that speculation, the need for Chinese investors to park their money outside of the local taxman/government and you see that unlike Pokemon cards (which anyway got bubble prices as well) given the fact LLLL.com are a fixed number, each day even the so called "crappier unpronunciable" becomes rarer than the day before and once you get to the point that a Country with 1 Billion + people becomes wealthy, you get millions of new investors which buy absolutely anything they can.

Examples lately are in every asset class, just Google it.

Here some recent links:

USA

http://kalw.org/post/competitive-so...tional-chinese-buyers-against-locals#stream/0

AUSTRALIA

http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/articl...ors-outbidding-hardworking-australian-racists

EUROPE

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-23/china-wants-to-buy-europe

http://www.economist.com/news/busin...-coming-under-chinese-ownership-gone-shopping

 

[krx]

易名 seems like the name of the registrar eName.
爱名 seems like the name of the registrar 22.cn.

四声母 is 4 characters.

4 Letters is 四字母.
4 Numbers is 四数字.

Did my translations put your doubts in context of where you found those words?

It's from the price chart at chaomi.cc. I thought it was something like 5th percentile and 10th percentile but it sounds like it is 4 letter .coms and 4 number .coms.

 

[Jen-Sin]

Seems like 皇冠 (Pinyin HuángGuàn) which means royal crown.

Thank you. I can't understand yet why hgNNNN.com are all registered while cnNNNN.com are not. Looking at LLLL sales CN should be a better combination than HG. Something in the mix hg plus numbers makes it more valuable. But I can't see what it is. Maybe a postal code?

My guess is the organization named 皇冠 is building up a network of sites or just doing defensive registrations.

 

[Jen-Sin]

Can anyone translate this:

易名 seems like the name of the registrar eName.
爱名 seems like the name of the registrar 22.cn.

四声母 is 4 characters.

4 Letters is 四字母.
4 Numbers is 四数字.

Did my translations put your doubts in context of where you found those words?

It's from the price chart at chaomi.cc. I thought it was something like 5th percentile and 10th percentile but it sounds like it is 4 letter .coms and 4 number .coms.

I'll like to correct myself. 四声母 is not exactly 4 characters.

In the phonetic Hanyu Pīnyīn 拼音 system, each Chinese syllable is composed of three parts: initial, final and tone.

There are 21 initials (声母 Shēng Mǔ) and 2 semi-vowels (y and w).

The 21 initials are b, p, m, f, d, t, n, l, g, k, h, j, q, x, zh, ch, sh, r, z, c & s.

Thus 四声母 is, more correctly, 4 initials; basically 4 Chinese Premium letters as we define them here.

 

[krx]

I'll like to correct myself. 四声母 is not exactly 4 characters.

In the phonetic Hanyu Pīnyīn 拼音 system, each Chinese syllable is composed of three parts: initial, final and tone.

There are 21 initials (声母 Shēng Mǔ) and 2 semi-vowels (y and w).

The 21 initials are b, p, m, f, d, t, n, l, g, k, h, j, q, x, zh, ch, sh, r, z, c & s.

Thus 四声母 is, more correctly, 4 initials; basically 4 Chinese Premium letters as we define them here.

Does this also mean that y and w would be less desirable than the 21 initials in Chinese acronym domains?

 

[djum]

My guess is the organization named 皇冠 is building up a network of sites or just doing defensive registrations.

I've received some spam today from email at hg4839.com offering to buy LLLL.com for dirt cheap.
I own same name in .net.

 

[Galleshem]

I would be happy to get $1000-1050 on Namepros one week ago for my Chinese Premium LLLL but after looking again at the 25 most recent sales, I'm not sure what price I should aim, assuming that there are no fees to be paid from my side.

What do you guys think is the current floor price for Chinese Premium on Namepros?

 

[Jen-Sin]

What do you guys think is the current floor price for Chinese Premium on Namepros?

I would be happy to get $1000-1050 on Namepros one week ago for my Chinese Premium LLLL but after looking again at the 25 most recent sales, I'm not sure what price should I aim, assuming that there are no fees to be paid from my side.

What're the prices for the 25 most recent sales in namePros?

 

[vickyhunter]

What do you guys think is the current floor price for Chinese Premium on Namepros?

I would be happy to get $1000-1050 on Namepros one week ago for my Chinese Premium LLLL but after looking again at the 25 most recent sales, I'm not sure what price should I aim, assuming that there are no fees to be paid from my side.

I would say $1200 is a fair price now for an average Chinese LLLL .com

 

[Galleshem]

What're the prices for the 25 most recent sales in namePros?

I feel like there were very few chinese premium sales or new listings on Namepros the last few days..

 

[Galleshem]

Here are the most recent sales btw:
dgfq.com $1,317.00 10/23/2015 NameJet
wllk.com $1,509.00 10/23/2015 NameJet
trrf.com $1,509.00 10/23/2015 NameJet
gthd.com $1,410.00 10/23/2015 NameJet
bjkp.com $1,818.00 10/23/2015 NameJet
plnk.com $1,220.00 10/23/2015 NameJet
ztxx.com $3,750.00 10/23/2015 GoDaddy
cbyq.com $1,055.21 10/23/2015 4.cn
zmyr.com $994.60 10/23/2015 Sedo
phyq.com $951.00 10/22/2015 Flippa
ctsn.com $1,550.00 10/22/2015 GoDaddy
qsmd.com $1,440.00 10/22/2015 NameJet
tssy.com $1,610.00 10/22/2015 NameJet
hbrd.com $1,509.00 10/22/2015 NameJet
rjzz.com $1,220.00 10/22/2015 NameJet
pgsm.com $1,712.00 10/22/2015 NameJet
wnhj.com $1,130.00 10/22/2015 NameJet
tslz.com $1,875.00 10/22/2015 GoDaddy
fxph.com $1,500.00 10/22/2015 GoDaddy
jhsp.com $1,876.00 10/22/2015 GoDaddy
ccnx.com $1,361.00 10/22/2015 Sedo
swxs.com $1,900.00 10/22/2015 GoDaddy
wdry.com $1,086.79 10/21/2015 4.cn
kgkd.com $1,320.00 10/21/2015 NameJet
frcd.com $1,409.00 10/21/2015 NameJet
kddb.com $1,719.00 10/21/2015 NameJet
mhpr.com $1,320.00 10/21/2015 NameJet
nrsw.com $1,330.00 10/21/2015 NameJet
fkcc.com $1,602.00 10/21/2015 NameJet
myrs.com $1,600.00 10/21/2015 NameJet
dxyz.com $1,400.00 10/21/2015 Flippa
nfhz.com $1,150.00 10/21/2015 Pheenix
nllw.com $1,050.00 10/20/2015 Sedo
kdrr.com $1,510.00 10/20/2015 NameJet
yppk.com $1,409.00 10/20/2015 NameJet
grcn.com $2,000.00 10/20/2015 NameJet
rkcb.com $1,300.00 10/20/2015 NameJet
ncny.com $1,919.00 10/20/2015 NameJet
kghs.com $1,200.00 10/20/2015 NameJet
fcyb.com $1,319.00 10/20/2015 NameJet
gmql.com $1,311.00 10/20/2015 GoDaddy

 

[mirul]

I would say $1200 is a fair price now for an average Chinese LLLL .com

Agreed, I've sold one of my chips (last week) for $1,300

 

[DGMDomains]

I noticed the slow down on selling 4 Letter chinese premiums as well. Prices are def rising. Just look at the past Godaddy and NameJet sales for them.

 

[thebutler]

I just sold another one on Sedo (waiting for payment) but I'll be sitting on my other ones and seeing if the prices keep moving up. With Namepros prices if you can arrange payment without large commission fees I'd say if you're getting anything below $1,100 that would be good.

 

[Name Trader]

I just had a bulk offer for all my LLLL.com's at $625 each. That seems about half the market price for Chinese LLLL.com's? What should I do? Counter?