Yes, it is a bubble, just like there was a bubble in 2006-2008 when all LLLL.com's got registered, min prices for the worst LLLL.com's went up to $75 or so during peak times, but shortly after there was a major crash and in 2009 they were practically worthless again.
Chinese LLLL.com's prices went up at ridiculous rates, I see no reason for such high values, such sharp growth is unsustainable. It might crash soon, or it might hit $1500, or $2000 first, but I'm pretty sure prices will drop back to more realistic levels where they were before.
Most actual end users can't afford the kind of prices that random LLLL.com's are selling at already.
I sold all my chinese premiums recently and planning to sell a few more LLLL.com's as well before it's too late...
There are still some opportunities to make money on this while people constantly pay even higher prices for chinese premiums, but I'd be very careful with holding on to big portfolios for a while..
There are few large difference between 2008-2009 and now (2015):
- all LLLL.com were regged on November 2, 2007. Financial crisis, caused by subprime lending, which started in summer 2007, developed into world crisis in 2008, causing Lehman Brothers to go into bancruptcy on September 15, 2008. The result was the worst financial crisis since Great Depression in 1930ies. Even during the crisis, all LLLL.com remained registered, there were no LLLL.com for handreg (probably except for max. 3 days at one point of time, when several thousands LLLL.com dropped at once). All LLLL.com dropping were immediatly dropcatched.
- currently stock markets, real estate prices in the USA are doing well. NY real estate prices already exceed previous (pre-2008 cirisis) peek prices. Chineese economy is much stronger now than in 2008 (even after recent shares decline). China has now larger middle class than the US (see yesterday's article, quoted several times on NP).
- in 2007 people were used to have LLLL.com handregged. In 2015, people used that LLLL.com can not be handregged since 8 years.
- in 2008-2009, new GTLD concept promoted by ICANN was weighting on the .com prices - people were afraid .com will lose its appeal. Now, after launch of numerous gtld, we see that the concerns were overdone, and the .com shines as a king further. I.e. .com will remain the one and only top domain zone. And we know what happens to top zones in real estate (i.e. Manhattan) - they skyrocket. The same for .com - LL.com, LLL.com, LLLL.com are experiencing rise on a huge demand for the one and only limited supply memorable short domains in .com.
- Special comment on CHIPs: in my understanding, the chinese abbreviations in LLLL.com often consist of 2 words, not of 4 words as in western world, probably this makes CHIPs more desirable that normal western LLLL.com
Disclaimer:
All above is imho. When making your domain investments, you need to make your own research and not to rely on other opinions or previous trends.