Chinese LLLL.com bubble!?

[freezer]

Is it a somewhat good estimate that
chinese LLLL.com premiums are at at least $1billion value today?
Unlike Number .coms chinese premium LLLL.com boomed in value in a very short period.
Will they hold their value or is it the biggest BUBBLE ever seen in domains?

Share your thoughts please

 

[Federer]

A few closing in next 30 hours at GD:

qqhp.com - $1975 (29 bids, 1 day left)

njqq.com - $2,000 (36 bids, 1 day left)

xpzx.com - $1975 (26 bids, 22 hours to go)

qqng.com - $1975 (27 bids, 21 hours to go)

 

[Federer]

mkjb.com just ended at $1550 (GD)
zlzq.com just ended at $1655 (DropCatch)

Chinese premiums seem to be doing slightly better than Quads, on average. Although the reserve is also true from time to time.

 

[Shams]

I don't know its bubble or not but as of my personal experience I know nature of chinese business men very well.I'm not saying I'm expert but I have 7 years of experience working with them. first they always think alternative cost effective way and 2nd they bargain too much even more than any end user. they offer you which you cannot accept or there will be very less margin in profit. my point is the domainers who buying Chinese premium domains today above $1000 and think tomorrow or in future years they will sell it above $5000 or $10000+. they are completely wrong. Many of us already sold many domains to Chinese buyers but what are there selling percentage. china has a total population of 1.357 billion with a total number of business 40.6 million small and large enterprises. does anyone think how many of them already have a domain name, how many Chinese end user buying domains above $5000 or $2000. very few if you take out the percentage you will be amazed not more than 3 to 5%. There are few companies who taking control into their hands of all the domain names which can be pronounced in Chinese. but even there not paying in high 4 figure or 5 figures. it's our nature if a person sold a domain name in the high-end price we all trying to jump into his circle. We think we can also sell our random letter domain at that price. which is very difficult. here on namepros we have all kind of domainers experts and beginners. Well, will anyone share his end user sale. Right now Chinese premium only circulating from domainer to domainer. it's human nature to show himself bigger than anyone but in last he gets nothing even lost what he has his own.

 

[Federer]

It's not that these liquid domains are selling above market price or too expensive, or that this is even a huge bubble. What we are seeing is a reality-correction.
These shorter name spaces (rare commodities, such as LL.com / LLL.com / LLLL.com / NNN.com / NNNN.com) are finally selling in ranges that represent their true worth and rarity. As the weeks and months go on, the correction will continue until we hit a final floor across the board.

Before 2015, the vast majority of these digital assets were simply not as prized and as valued as waking nations have come to realize. The current/near-future prices of these categories will simply represent the new norm prices.
There are ALOT more end users sales (not reported due to NDA) following acquisitions than what you may believe. Alot more.

 

[Kate]

The LLLL.com bubble has happened before.....
http://www.domainmagnate.com/2008/02/19/why-llllcom-domains-will-grow-in-price/

Thanks for posting this. There have been many threads on NP on the topic of LLLL.com especially around 2008.
I hope that newcomers will do their homework and study history in order not to repeat the mistakes of the past.
I'm not saying people must stay away because there is a bubble. People just need to understand where they stand, and what could happen, because it has already happened before.

 

[Kate]

What we are seeing is a reality-correction.

I could see a downward correction soon That must happen after a bubble.

These shorter name spaces (rare commodities, such as LL.com / LLL.com / LLLL.com / NNN.com / NNNN.com) are finally selling in ranges that represent their true worth and rarity.

Rarity alone doesn't command value, or event demand
But generally speaking I am the first to say that domain names are undervalued assets. It's just that have more faith in the other types of short domains that you mentioned, than LLLL.com.

Before 2015, the vast majority of these digital assets were simply not as prized and as valued as waking nations have come to realize. The current/near-future prices of these categories will simply represent the new norm prices.

Are you saying the global perception of domains has changed all of a sudden in 2015 ? Then the question is why and how.

BTW what happens when the Chinese domainers run out of cash and stop buying ?

 

[vlad74]

BTW what happens when the Chinese domainers run out of cash and stop buying ?

Kate, lets theoretically assume that 0,1% of Chinese population is investing in domains (as investors, not domainers), i.e. with a budget of USD 50 per month each. It is 69 million usd per month. At current prices of 1,3K per CHIP, it means they may buy 53K CHIPs per month or 637K CHIPs per year. The problem is of course that there are only 160K CHIPs available in total. Thus other domain sectors (4-7N.com, 4-7N.net, 4L.net, 5L.com are becoming hot). And if person continues to earn his/her salary, we may expect he may continue to dedicate its USD 50 budget per month for investments.

 

[BostonDomainer]

I love bubbles. I cash in and get out. I cashed in on the .mobi 3 letters craze, the first LLLL.com boom not 2008 cashing in big time with domains like GOMO.com because it was all about quality American CVCV letters.... the LLL.in mini craze because India was to surpass China... yadi yadi ya........ all bubbles explode and you just don't want it to be in your face. This buyout is not sustainable. I appreciate @Kate over there because every time I see her posts, she is always trying to educate people.

Nothing new under the sun folks. I have LLLL.coms I have a decent amount. It's in my best interest to shut up but yet I speak. Sooo many people who have been around before some of the folks here even knew what a domain was have been sharing their warnings yet folks won't heed. Make your money now and get out. The doom after the boom is staring you in the face. Make your money and go by something that will always have a market uhm LLL.coms anyone?

 

[Shams]

• Thanks for posting this. There have been many threads on NP on the topic of LLLL.com especially around 2008.
  I hope that newcomers will do their homework and study history in order not to repeat the mistakes of the past.
  I'm not saying people must stay away because there is a bubble. People just need to understand where they stand, and what could happen, because it has already happened before.

  
  

Will you explain this point. how a random letter can fall in TM and how we can check the domain is TM or not.

• TM typo domains: these are probably the riskiest type as you can end up paying 2 years revenue for one just to have it taken from you by the TM owner and get slapped with the maximum $100K cybersquatting lawsuit to a big corporation.

 

[krx]

Are you saying the global perception of domains has changed all of a sudden in 2015 ? Then the question is why and how.

Maybe not globally but I think we can agree that the perception has changed among Chinese investors. There are now two short-domain markets. One driven by traditional end-user sales, and the other more closely approximating a stock market. Over 5 to 10 years time, maybe 20 (who knows..) I suspect a lot of the domains being bought by Chinese investors today will be sold to Chinese endusers for a nice mark up. But it doesn't take more than a couple good enduser sales a year to pay the reg fees on 1000 domains. 20 sales a year would cover reg fees and bring back 5-10% on the initial investment (1000 domains x $1000 = 1,000,000 investment). So domains are a "safe" investment financially ( also outside the reach of the government). In the meantime, based on a long-term sales model, holders of large portfolios are not likely to be dropping or dumping their domains, and depleting value. As such the value should be maintained, possibly continue to increase over time with normal stock market-type fluctuations, and create a liquid market for trade among domainers. That's the new market.

BTW what happens when the Chinese domainers run out of cash and stop buying ?

Then we enter the holding period where values are propped up by a long-term sales model that pays a nice return on large portfolios.

This, to me, makes more sense than the alternate interpretation, which seems to be that the Chinese buyers investing massive fortunes into short domains today are just a bunch of fools. I think they have a plan that looks farther down the road than next quarter's balance sheet.

 

[BMS]

I don't know if it is given before, but should watch:

 

[vlad74]

Are you saying the global perception of domains has changed all of a sudden in 2015 ? Then the question is why and how.

Kate, one more thing. I do not know if you have experienced a period of LLL.com traded for USD 300 each. I do not, but I was reading people's posts/stories about their experience. When prices went from USD 300 to over USD 1,000, also not everyone could agree that it was sustainable.

The issue is are we seeing a paradigm change, where letter and numerical short domains are becoming a universal investment object (without the goal of selling to endusers) - as basically LLL.com are already since years? Need a proof for this statement that LLL.com is an investment object? Here it is, in the next post after yours:

... Make your money and go by something that will always have a market uhm LLL.coms anyone?

I was already writing in one of my previous posts regarding LLLL.com buyout and subsequent stagnation - it happened during the worst crisis since 1929-1933. Nonetheless, the buy-out of 2007 withstood the global economic crisis. Pressure from uncertainty over new domain zones over the last years - how it will influence .com and .net (well, finally, after new zones have been lauched, they even emphasised value of main internet zones .com and.net). And now, with rising economy, much more money running though the system due to QE in the US over the last years, and now in EU since march 2015, with more Chinese investors (their economy is growing year after year in huge steps), finally there is enough critical mass of domain investors to absorb all short domains - as years ago critical mass of domain investors pushed LLL.com prices beyond USD 1,000 mark.

Will CHIPs .com remain at/above/below USD 1K? 3K? 0,5K? Difficult to say, it depends on economy as well as on over investment in general (i.e. in 6L, 10N, 11N, etc domains), not on price rise on top assets from this new category, LLLL.com and NNNNN.com. People are not looking at LLLL.com and other short domains (as previously) as an asset having substantial value only to endusers and having much lower reseller prices among domains. These short domains now got an investment image, and the situation is different now. Huge price fluctuations may be in the future, in any directions, but the image has changed already.

 

[Kate]

Kate, one more thing. I do not know if you have experienced a period of LLL.com traded for USD 300 each. I do not, but I was reading people's posts/stories about their experience. When prices went from USD 300 to over USD 1,000, also not everyone could agree that it was sustainable.

I wouldn't compare LLL.com with LLLL.com.
LL/LLL are popular for corporate acronyms, LLLL can be but they are a slightly different beast.

It's true that we've seen ups an downs with LLL.com too.
Sometimes it's like the stock exchange, bubbles are followed crashes but the long-term trend is up. It's all about timing: getting in and out at the right time.
The problem is that speculators cannot absorb all the supply and even if they did - at some point the machine stops moving. I am concerned to see speculation driving prices up so fast because I doubt there are enough end users down the line to maintain liquidity.
Current prices have grown to insane levels. The question is not whether the correction will happen... but when ! My guess: it won't take long.

But I'm just playing the devil's advocate. Somebody has to

 

[djum]

I love bubbles. I cash in and get out. I cashed in on the .mobi 3 letters craze, the first LLLL.com boom not 2008 cashing in big time with domains like GOMO.com because it was all about quality American CVCV letters.... the LLL.in mini craze because India was to surpass China... yadi yadi ya........ all bubbles explode and you just don't want it to be in your face. This buyout is not sustainable. I appreciate @Kate over there because every time I see her posts, she is always trying to educate people.

Nothing new under the sun folks. I have LLLL.coms I have a decent amount. It's in my best interest to shut up but yet I speak. Sooo many people who have been around before some of the folks here even knew what a domain was have been sharing their warnings yet folks won't heed. Make your money now and get out. The doom after the boom is staring you in the face. Make your money and go by something that will always have a market uhm LLL.coms anyone?

The only thing is noone know when the music will stop. This boom may go for 2-3 years and prices on Chips can rise to $5000 and $500-1000 for regular LLLL.coms. Then people who sold today and got out will be not so happy.

 

[djum]

I wouldn't compare LLL.com with LLLL.com.
LL/LLL are popular for corporate acronyms, LLLL can be but they are a slightly different beast.

If someone think that LLL prices are not related to LLLL prices they making A HUGE mistake.
Do you really think that if LLLL market crashes someone will keep giving 50+K offer for LLL.com?
Good luck. The price of LLL will go down to where it was before LLLL's started to take of.
So if you a bear and think the sky is falling down or will very soon, go ahead and cash out on your LLL.com, when you still can get a good price for it. Just follow the logic through, think of people who bought LLL's in 2007 for 8000 and waited till 2014 for price to come back to this level.

 

[gladdy]

There is always big fish and small fish on any market. Whatever strategy you follow big fish is always in favor.
Now we see many big fish, like "first" on Namejet is buying every worth to be name, with no chance to win by small fish. You have chance to follow or look from distance and learn.

 

[gladdy]

Now lets take a look what domains "first" bought yesterday LINK
maybe you will be amazed maybe not, but a lot of LLLL.net's for $150 each. "Buy cheap sell high"

There is always big fish and small fish on any market. Whatever strategy you follow big fish is always in favor.
Now we see many big fish, like "first" on Namejet is buying every worth to be name, with no chance to win by small fish. You have chance to follow or look from distance and learn.

 

[gladdy]

Minimum price goes up today at least +$100
There is only 161 CP LLLL.com's left on Godaddy priced lower than $2K
here is the list of remaining LIST

 

[hullswingerscom]

wonder who "first" is?
but he not buying cheap to sell high ?

 

[gladdy]

Update: 133 left

Minimum price goes up today at least +$100
There is only 161 CP LLLL.com's left on Godaddy priced lower than $2K
here is the list of remaining LIST