new gtlds Analysis of ngTLD Sales

[Bob Hawkes]

I just released my fourth (monthly) analysis of NameBio reported ngTLD sales. This was another huge month for .top, but .app also did very well for such a new extension, snagging two of the top five sales in the 30 day period. Here are the highlights.

During the monthly period ending June 22, 2018 there were

• 104 recorded ngTLD domain name sales;
• The average sales price was about $3450, while the median price was $1580;
• In terms of major sales, 8 were for $10,000 or more;
• The highest price sales in this period were bz.top for $53,904, RN.app for $15,000, host.app for $14,162 bet.top for $13,861 and ttt.top for $13,130;
• There were sales in 16 different extensions during the reporting period;

The complete report with commentary, links (to sources and the previous three similar analysis reports) and a list of all extensions sold during the 30 day period is available here:

https://agreatnameforyou.blogspot.com/2018/06/ngtld-sales-report-may-23-june-22-2018.html

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Regarding sales under $500...
This can be done with any traditional domains... for such results - nTLDs are not needed at all.

 

[garptrader]

So if an average domain investor holds say 500 new TLD domains across dozens of extensions but none of them are five character or less .TOP domains what does their cash flow probably look like?

X sales at median price of $xxx per sale
500 renewals at average cost of $xx per domain
Net cash flow?

The comparison to .Net and .Org is interesting. I still hold dozens of .Net domains. I think I sold one last year for low $XXX but it has an original registration date from the late 90s. The last year I had a net addition of .Net registrations to my portfolio was likely 2008 ( every year since more drops than adds). The last year I had a net addition of .TV domains to my portfolio was likely 2012 (since then occasional adds but far more drops as $30 renewals consume the rare sale).

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Nobody renews such volumes...
1 year for promofee >>> drop >>> reregistration again for promofee (if motivation still exists).

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

And if NO REGULAR 4F sales - you may forget about renewals for 500+ domains apriori.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Regarding comparison to .NET

Even with 20-50 good .NETs you can be in SIGNIFICANT profit.
And you need at least 5x times more nTLDs to get the same cashflow.

 

[Premiums]

$0 sales here look at my sig

 

[Premiums]

so i m done with n Gs..

not interested in new gtld reg/purch anymore.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

I sold 7 nTLDs as of today... ~$640 per domain on average.
My sales volume could be higher - but I usually reject all inquiries under $500... and even such inquiries are rare.
And overall, I'm in debt with nTLDs... as of today.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Even .app noise has finished already.
3.5 months elapsed - just few "short" sales and that's all.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Many companies use *group.com domains...
And tons EMD.group are available...
This is another indicator.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

And even if you have them - you will not receive any offers.

 

[Premiums]

Many companies use *group.com domains...
And tons EMD.group are available...
This is another indicator.

in my experience brands prefer ***group.coms instead of .group domain.

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Regarding LL/LLL.TOP
They ALL are Premiums.

Yes of course. Those were the easy ones to categorize! (Although even with those there have been cases we know background where they are being resold, like the interview on here re ex in top)

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Registry has troubles with Moscow.top - it is availabe for registration ~4 years already and for symbolic price...
This was just example of almost zero demand outside CN.

Your English domains (if any) have no value for Chineses.
Except some crypto related terms and something MEGA.

I am not sure what you mean by registry has problems with Moscow so won't respond to that part.

I do accept, and have said previously myself, that .top is a unique case, and a challenge for those outside China, so agree re English to some degree. Nevertheless the list of sales last month in top does include quite a few English words e.g. frog, koala, dolphin, BlueSky, gravity, quadrant, zebra, furry, prime, reset, face, furry.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

I am sorry that you have trouble selling Moscow.top

And again...
This trouble is not mine...
This domain is available since 2014.

Regarding English (and not only English) singulars .TOP
Almost all valuable words/names are Premiums as well.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

+ use WHOIS...
Very helpful tool to distinguish "regs" and "aftermarket sales".
In most cases I can determine them even without WHOIS.

You are talking about TLD where domainers are just spectators.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

+ there are many Chinese newbies with cryptoincome...
They don't know how to reinvest their money and burn it by regging Premium .TOPs...

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

They also like to burn it with .online except Premiums... because .online requires the same premium fee yearly.
With .TOP Premiums - renewal is standard.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

WHOIS is the best information source to get what is going...
When you research it continiously and daily - you have chances to avoid mistakes and to make money...

For me NameBio is already like Estibot... just for fun.

 

[Bob Hawkes]

So if an average domain investor holds say 500 new TLD domains across dozens of extensions but none of them are five character or less .TOP domains what does their cash flow probably look like?

X sales at median price of $xxx per sale
500 renewals at average cost of $xx per domain
Net cash flow?

The comparison to .Net and .Org is interesting. I still hold dozens of .Net domains. I think I sold one last year for low $XXX but it has an original registration date from the late 90s. The last year I had a net addition of .Net registrations to my portfolio was likely 2008 ( every year since more drops than adds). The last year I had a net addition of .TV domains to my portfolio was likely 2012 (since then occasional adds but far more drops as $30 renewals consume the rare sale).

I like the way you posed this @garptrader - I think you have hit on various key ideas, sales as fraction of a portfolio, how many years typically hold, sales prices and renewals are all important factors. Registry sales and premium renewals complicate the calculation, of course. I may try to do a more quantitative calculation, but I suspect numbers would show that a net sale would be more likely, when registry values excluded from ngTLD sales the average price would be same order of magnitude or slightly favour ngTLDs, renewal costs (once premiums excluded if no registry sales counted) would be pretty similar when averaged over holding time if the investor seeks the best renewal deals, and that overall it is better ROI to invest in net or org but the new extensions would be within a factor of 2 or 3 when everything is factored in. An earlier calculation I did trying to work in most of these factors found that ROI is maybe 40% for new extensions compared to all (mainly com) - I think uncertainty in some factors means it might really be 20% or maybe 50%. Thanks again for a concise, clear, insightful comment.

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Regarding sales under $500...
This can be done with any traditional domains... for such results - nTLDs are not needed at all.

I agree that the median prices in both legacy and new (and many 'general') country code are similar. A domain investor might therefore, I agree, say why not simply stay with what I know. I think that is a totally smart move for many domainers, probably the majority. Of course the same argument could be held for all sorts of other extensions such as .io, .co, .pro etc. that many find to be worthwhile investments.

But just because the median prices are similar, most a bit under $500 as you say, does not necessarily mean that end users, and therefor domainers might want to consider new extensions. Early in 2018 I laid out 12 reasons in this post in case interested.

Thanks for your comment, @Jurgen Wolf - at least they keep the thread in the active list , and multiple viewpoints are always worthwhile!

 

[Bob Hawkes]

For me NameBio is already like Estibot... just for fun.

I disagree with this so strongly that I am lost for words!

Yes, NameBio has well recognized biases because certain venues list and others don't, it generally under represents private sales, it does not include sales less than $100, a few registries report premiums and most do not, etc.

But it does have a wealth of daily updated sales data from many of the most important venues. It is trivial to search in powerful ways, it easily gives statistics. In minutes I can see if words starting or ending a certain way have sold, and where and when and for how much.

I am so grateful to Michael and his team for creating such a fantastic tool, and making it readily available to us all, free! I do accept that in any field, there are multiple sources of information, some quantitative and some qualitative. These should not be discounted, but nor should a widely used, long term, powerful database of domain sales value.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

You are doing statistics or domaining???

If only statistics - then Yes, NameBio is completely enough.
But if you want to live from domaining - you should research the domains in other ways, via various methods...
Even information from parking (traffic) is very valuable in terms of analysis...

 

[Bob Hawkes]

You are doing statistics or domaining???

If only statistics - then Yes, NameBio is completely enough.
But if you want to live from domaining - you should research the domains in other ways, via various methods...
Even information from parking (traffic) is very valuable in terms of analysis...

I agree - in fact in a recent post on NamePros I say this "My main advice is to be cautious of placing too much emphasis on any single aspect of a domain name, but rather research it based on multiple criteria."
When evaluating a domain name, whether for potential purchase or setting a price or for arguments in a negotiation, I feel that it is important to look at potential users and uses, history, similar sales, NameBio stats, aesthetics of the word, Google search data, advertiser CPC etc, name uniqueness, new social or technological trends that might influence the value, etc.

The title of this thread is ANALYSIS so I think using NameBio statistics is relevant! I see the purpose of analysis as partly to see if there are trends that may be beneficial to domain investors. Yes, there are always biases in any dataset, even errors most of the time. But refusing to use data will be bad for the domain community for at least two reasons.

1. We will miss seeing changes in the landscape, such as which types of domains are now selling more often and for more, and which are not showing any sales. We make uninformed investment decisions.
2. Spending by businesses on quality domains will be more common when the topic of digital asset worth receives more attention in university and college business courses. That will happen more if there is additional analysis and other forms of scholarly commentary. I know that may not seem important to those needing to make sales, but in the long run the domain industry will be stronger, and there will be more high value sales, when there is more treatment of domain names in the education of those who lead startups, manage businesses, work as consultants, marketing or advertising/branding.

Thanks again for your post, @Jurgen Wolf

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Also keep in mind the following, starting from this post:
https://www.namepros.com/threads/the-pro-discussion.522420/page-303#post-6863855