.tv 2008 - Up or Down - 2009 - Optimistic or Concerned

[GoneWalkabout]

For many here it is not just about sales of names but development and income.

That said, I thought it might be useful to discover if people were financially up or down on 2008 and whether they were optimistic about 2009.

As I've been in buying buying buying mode all year I am financially way down on the year (but that was never really going to be any different).

However, even though I am also committed to considerable premiums, still have large development costs, and am faced with a falling currency, and we are STILL in the worst recession for 80 years, I am also incredibly optimistic about 2009 for .TV.

I doubt we will see a massive upturn in domain sales figures, except for the VERY HIGH VALUE domains, but I do think we will start to notice the embedding of thousands more .tv sites that are generating reasonable income for their owners. I am assuming that many of my own names will each be among that number.

I just wondered whether others are up or down and are optimistic or concerned about the year ahead.

Also, as there seem to be so many newbies here, I thought it might well be worth sharing our experience with them so they don't make the kind of mistakes many of us did when we began. My advice for all in 2009 is...

... 'buy to develop in 2009 - not to flip'

 

[mckennaronnie]

Buy to develop in 2009, not to flip

I agree with that in most circumstances as .tv is definetley a developers extension.

I do still think there is opportunities to buy some domains with excellent development potential & a large group of buyers purely for investment, i wouldnt really say it was buying to flip though as i treat it more like longterm investments.

Over the course of 2008 i will be around even or possibly a slight profit as most of my higher prices buys were in 2007 and i then sold off 4,5 smaller Geo's that i had no plans for to bring in about $5K.

For 2009 on a personal level my aim is to get more of my domains bringing in traffic & revenue with maor development plans for 2 or maybe 3 of my best Geo's depending in circumstances.
The economy hasn't changed that at all & the poor economy will not stop me buying more top .Tv's if as many expect then a higher number are dropped or sold off.

Like Jimbo i dont expect sales to increase too much over 2009, on forums like this i expect lots of hysteria when a high number of domainers drop domain & blame the extension rather than look at the fact they bought (& are still buying) bad domainers with no plan for them.

With the very top class .Tv's i do not expect any major fire sales or panic, offers are still being received & big development plans are being made by many.
Even during 2nd half of 2008 when the economic worries were giving the whole world depression, i know of many major sales & a number of massive companies trying to get a hold of top .Tv's


I'll stop rabbiting on & give my predictions for 2009:
2009 will be the year of development in .Tv
Expect to see a 1000's of new developed .tv's at all levels with many attracting great media attention.

Prices of average .Tv's will stay static outside the occasions when Endusers come looking for a domain.
Prices for the very top keyword .tv's or top Geo's will rise again though maybe not as dramatic a rise as in 2007/2008.

As you can tell i Am positive for .Tv in 2009 but only if you buy with some kind of plan.
I dont expect too many here to agree with my vision of 2009 for .Tv but that is MY view based on lots of things that have happened during 2008 (including a number of great sales with NDA's)

Cheers,
Ronnie

 

[MicroGuy]

That top million Alexa list needs some CNN like names before we'll hear any corks popping. On the bright side, Len's recent Sedo run is encouraging.

It looks like more loses in 2009 and 2010 and perhaps a turn as early as 2011. At least that's what I heard Warren Buffet and others say recently about the economy and this market mirrors the economy to a large degree.

My plan is to hang on and renew when possible, one domain one year, one domain, one year, etc., etc. Take 20 or 30 high quality .TV names and get them out to 2011 and 2012. I'm guessing we've got about a 50/50 chance we could see some improvement (and profits) by then. IMO.

(not awake yet, I reserve the right to edit this post.)

 

[bigdipper]

It looks like more loses in 2009 and 2010 and perhaps a turn as early as 2011. At least that's what I heard Warren Buffet and others say recently about the economy and this market mirrors the economy to a large degree.

Unfortunately - i agree.

I think a lot of people are under the mistaken impression that we are now out of the woods. The truth is - we are maybe halfway through the woods if we are lucky.

Housing has not bottomed yet.

2009 will be worse than 2008 for the general economy.

:bah:

 

[equity78]

2008 thankfully was an up year, not up that someone would earn a full time living, but this is not my job so that's fine.

I think 2009 could be a year of reasonable expectations, where people may be able to sell some names if they have a reasonable outlook. Those thinking every name is XX,XXX to XXX,XXX will not be moving a lot of names but those more reasonable in their sales expectations will do well IMO.

I think 2009 will be the year where development really becomes the norm, as the aftermarket is not active and people will have to develop their great names, if people in .com are thinking more like this, then it only makes complete sense doing it with your .tv portfolio.

I think 2009 will continue to be a year of trimming portfolios, even though in 2005 started writing about smaller being better, I think now it starting to be the focus of many, I spoke to a couple who do not belong here who owned 300 and 500 respectively who now hold 30 and 70 respectively.

I think anyone serious about development needs to check out the research Michaeldotcom has done on development.tv.

Hopefully more tools that are easy to use will be available for video on a website to help those who are not expert in this area and may not have the budget to pay someone else.

 

[mckennaronnie]

Unfortunately - i agree.

I think a lot of people are under the mistaken impression that we are now out of the woods. The truth is - we are maybe halfway through the woods if we are lucky.

Housing has not bottomed yet.

2009 will be worse than 2008 for the general economy.

:bah:

I'm not sure if many people think we are out of the woods in regards to the economy, almost everyone seems to predict that 2009 will be terrible then things should start to improve somewhere around 2010 (who knows when exactly though)

Just to confirm something, although i still feel positive about .Tv over the course of 2009 I do agree that 2009 will be worse than 2008 and it will be a very tough year for all.

 

[Len]

Even though we are in an slump I believe that the economy will recover sooner than predicted. We have to remember that this is cyclical and there will be a recovery.

I will stick my neck out and say that this will all be a distant memory by 2010. As for .tv, there will be some bargains out there during early 2009 but there will also be some good prices paid for top keyword and geo's. Summer 2009 onwards will see an increase in confidence in the economic markets which will have a spill over effect. JMHO

 

[Argos]

100% cool & optismitic !

 

[GoneWalkabout]

Even though we are in an slump I believe that the economy will recover sooner than predicted. We have to remember that this is cyclical and there will be a recovery.

I will stick my neck out and say that this will all be a distant memory by 2010.

Talking about .TV names I think you might be correct. However, I think this will have more to do with the changing technology and culture of internet / entertainment. Internet Tv is out of the bottle and the genie will only get bigger.

However, although I would love it to be true, I really would suggest that any here waiting for a miracle cure for the economy be prepared for bad news. History shows that while financial affairs are cyclical it also shows that every economic bubble/recession takes as long to exit as it did to be created in the first place. Sadly, our massive reliance on credit in places like the US, Canada, UK, Spain, Australia, Netherlands, etc meant that we had a good five years of 'everything is yours if you want it' and we will almost certainly have another three and a half years of 'paying the bill'. I would suggest this time in 2011 we will be starting to come out of the woods.

Even so, this will mean opportunities today for those that look.

I am so very disinclined to buy new names these days, but still can't help jumping for gems that we see being tossed away by those who have lost faith or are overstretched.

I still suggest big names will still command big prices in 2009, but most lower level stuff will be stagnant. For those who don't have the skills to develop their names, they should get out of .TV OR find partners who DO have the skills. I agree with Equity that it might be worthwhile having a good perusal at Development.TV for ideas.





Oh, as an aside I recently saw an interesting video on what fools we were in the first place - those in the UK will understand this better than most.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbgwR1pA1k0

 

[MicroGuy]

Nice post Jimbo. Rep ++

... it might be worthwhile having a good perusal at Development.TV for ideas.

In addition, there's an entire development forum here at NamePros that's worth a look. Merry Christmas.

 

[domainacrobat]

I think 2009 will be excellent for domains in general. Historically in times of financial instability, investors pull their money from troubled waters and invest in seemingly safer and alternative ventures. Domain sales remained unaffected during the minor colapse of the stock market this year. In fact while the rest of NY was rioting about wallstreet the TRAFFIC auctions did very well in NY. 2008 has been an excellent year for high end .TV sales, with more $XX,XXX range sales than I can remember. Unfortunately the high end sales failed to ignite the low end reseller market the way the Demand media hype did last year. IMO .TV low end sales will continue to increase at a reasonable rate and high end sales will also increase. Video is still hot and that wont change anytime soon.

 

[jeffoverman]

2008 was a down year for me, it could have been really ugly but i sold one name that really helped me out(nda) and only down a few hundred...

i had trimmed down my portfolio down heavily, regrouped, doing some experiments with developments as we speak and have couple things up... i miss being online from a few years ago and realizing my passions and interests make me happy-1. being online and creating things and 2. have a 24 hour business and online presense..

I grabbed a lot of .tv names, mostly bad names and considered branding over generic grabbing..

2008 was really tough year for me it seems...lost a big customer, had a surgery and couple other challenges... the past few weeks i been taking things slowly, putting things on paper and making some phone calls to some webmasters and contacts i had built up over the years. beginning see some small results and im headed in the right direction.

now as far as 2009 goes-i still feel the marjority of the year will be a challenge for domainers and .tv.. i think by early 2010 we should things somewhat calmer in the economy(however with the big 3 issues and huge layoffs and housing market) i am very worried but optimistic for 2010 recovery right now... i think no one really knows when we should see a recovery... here in michigan, its a huge mess and afraid its going get worse...

cant look back and only forward...reflect, learn and move forward...i am taking baby steps in the right direction...

my 09 goals are to continue to spend money CAREFULLY ON DEVELOPMENTS, continue having a cash flow business model coming inn and to entertain my readers or audience. by mid 09 i hope to have an eccomerce project off the ground.

now that being said as far as names goes...i see some steals, 3 letter .com trying to sell cheaply, some nice generic .tv names trying to be moved..i havent been a buyer the past few months really.. i been building up my cash position and feel CASH IS KING right now.. a couple people i have talked with on cash is king think i am nuts... couple of my friends who are non domainers but running internet businesses and eccomerce agree with me... mixed signals but thats fine... yes there are huge steals in the market for names... yes the market will rebound for domains in general...yes the economy will eventually recover(thats what they said in the 70s and look how long that took).

sorry for long winded post...my views on .tv continue to be bullish, trends headed higher.... to the newer members here, bigger is not better...quality over domain amounts are more important. form a business model on paper and go after your ambitions or interests...thats what my 2 cents are worth... find something that you love and makes you happy on... after all these years being in sales, i concluded i hate sales and burned out on things..the hussling, the excitment, the crash, being rejected, chasing after things...thats just me. so i am changing course.

 

[snoop]

I would say it has been an average year, obviously domain values have declined very significantly, especially names on the speculative ends and I am glad I've mainly bought names on the basis of cashflow. I've been clearing out more speculative names that can't be justified on the basis of revenue and am reinvesting that money elsewhere.

On 2009 I really have no idea, anything could happen, the recession could get worse or things could improve, flip a coin. One thing is for sure if 2009 is a bad year then people will predict 2010 will be a bad year. Most tend to think the future will be much the same as what has just happened so be careful about reading anything much into predictions, 50% of them are wrong.

One thing I would suggest though is people trim down (esp registration fees), focus on cash from enduser sales/parking and the like. Reseller sales cannot be relied on in the current market, it won't carry a lot of people through. As far as enduser sales goes make sure your model is actually working/profitable today, otherwise action needs to be taken. The tide is going out and it is clear some people aren’t wearing any clothes (loss making business models).

Development could be a good option for many though remember success in this area really doesn't have a heck of a lot to do with domaining - it is a very different strategy and it isn't easy.

In fact while the rest of NY was rioting about wallstreet the TRAFFIC auctions did very well in NY.

Sales were down 73% from last year, from $10.9million to $3million for the main live auction.

 

[Argos]

I would say it has been an average year, obviously domain values have declined very significantly, especially names on the speculative ends and I am glad I've mainly bought names on the basis of cashflow. I've been clearing out more speculative names that can't be justified on the basis of revenue and am reinvesting that money elsewhere.

On 2009 I really have no idea, anything could happen, the recession could get worse or things could improve, flip a coin. One thing is for sure if 2009 is a bad year then people will predict 2010 will be a bad year. Most tend to think the future will be much the same as what has just happened so be careful about reading anything much into predictions, 50% of them are wrong.

One thing I would suggest though is people trim down (esp registration fees), focus on cash from enduser sales/parking and the like. Reseller sales cannot be relied on in the current market, it won't carry a lot of people through. As far as enduser sales goes make sure your model is actually working/profitable today, otherwise action needs to be taken. The tide is going out and it is clear some people aren’t wearing any clothes (loss making business models).

Development could be a good option for many though remember success in this area really doesn't have a heck of a lot to do with domaining - it is a very different strategy and it isn't easy.

Sales were down 73% from last year, from $10.9million to $3million for the main live auction.

Thank you for this noticeable wise and constructive input, appreciate it.

 

[jeffoverman]

i would have to agree with snoop on this post...

i guess we can agree on first name.tv and his views on this for 08...maybe snoop and i can agree on 3 things for 09..

snoop we have surly butted heads but i noticed your doing some selling on some nice keyword .com... couple were for huge amounts...were you happy with your sales for the most part?

 

[snoop]

snoop we have surly butted heads but i noticed your doing some selling on some nice keyword .com... couple were for huge amounts...were you happy with your sales for the most part?

So far of everything I have sold 3 have been at a loss (out of maybe 40-50 sales in the last 10 months) so happy with the results. (2 were .info and the other was a .com that is misjudged at time of purchase). Most sold for pretty substanital profits. I do have a couple of .net's that might be sold at a loss coming up in the new year though.

 

[domainacrobat]

Sales were down 73% from last year, from $10.9million to $3million for the main live auction.

Point taken. Things are down from last years NY Traffic auction versus this year.

IMO its not a fair comparison, the over $15 million generated from that single record breaking event was more than all other major auctions combined from both 2007 and 2008. The 2007 record is not a fair indicator as to weather or not the market is up or down, as it was far greater than any event that year too. You could esentially compare last years TRAFFIC to any other auction and it would look like last year was an amazing time for domains in comparison.

 

[snoop]

Point taken. Things are down from last years NY Traffic auction versus this year.

IMO its not a fair comparison, the over $15 million generated from that single record breaking event was more than all other major auctions combined from both 2007 and 2008. The 2007 record is not a fair indicator as to weather or not the market is up or down, as it was far greater than any event that year too. You could esentially compare last years TRAFFIC to any other auction and it would look like last year was an amazing time for domains in comparison.

In your view what is a fair comparison? Here is the auctions results over the last two years, pretty obvious that the sales totals have tanked. Your claim that the auction total then was "was more than all other major auctions combined from both 2007 and 2008" is definately not true.

-Traffic Live auction results-

Sep 2008

$3million
44% sold

May 2008

$2.5million
42% sold

Feb 2008

$4.3million
36% sold

///////////////////////

Oct 2007

$8.1 million
56% sold

Aug 2007

$10.9 million
53% sold

March 2007

$4.3 million
67% sold

 

[gr8trfoo]

Point taken. Things are down from last years NY Traffic auction versus this year.

IMO its not a fair comparison, the over $15 million generated from that single record breaking event was more than all other major auctions combined from both 2007 and 2008. ...

"Statistically Insignificant Sample".

But its a gutchecker alright.

 

[domainacrobat]

In your view what is a fair comparison? Here is the auctions results over the last two years, pretty obvious that the sales totals have tanked. Your claim that the auction total then was "was more than all other major auctions combined from both 2007 and 2008" is definately not true.

-Traffic Live auction results-

Sep 2008

$3million
44% sold

May 2008

$2.5million
42% sold

Feb 2008

$4.3million
36% sold

///////////////////////

Oct 2007

$8.1 million
56% sold

Aug 2007

$10.9 million
53% sold

March 2007

$4.3 million
67% sold

I was reading ricks blog the other day, thats what it said. I misread a portion, the total sales were $12 million for TRAFFIC East, not $15 million. He did say:

I believe that is more than all other live domain auctions at other shows combined for both 2007 and 2008!

Now, I took for granted that he would know what he is talking about. Wether its true or not I cannot say.