gTLD registrations have peaked. With a rocky road ahead, how long until the crash?

[pfj]

Worrying stats from nTLDstats.com - for the last two weeks, new gTLD registrations have been almost static, and are actually starting to decline. Where previously we saw 10k, 15k, 20k new registrations per day, for a sustained period now registrations have ground to a halt. In the two weeks to date we should have expected to see an increase of almost 350,000 domains, but in fact we've seen a LOSS of 7,644.

This is something that I've expected to see happen for months as the inflated figures of various registries begin to adjust - i.e. the low/no-cost "puff" registrations are dropped. .XYZ tried to combat this earlier in the year with their huge promotional event, but you can only do a bargain basement sale once or twice before people lose confidence.

I see this as a sign that the market has reached saturation. Registries have failed to communicate the real benefits of new TLDs while businesses and individuals are failing to adopt them. The number of active sites using new gTLDs seems to be tiny compared to the number of domains registered. This causes a huge problem for investors as the whole gTLD sector risks becoming contaminated.

Christa Taylor/dotTBA's analysis of the first six months of new gTLD performance on Circle ID brought to light some stark realities: a huge number of registries are operating at a loss, and if registrations continue to fall away, the writing is on the wall for many of these registries. I'm confident that we will see a number of registries cease operations in the next 6 to 12 months.

Total number of gTLD registrations:

July 12th: 22,951,202
July 24th: 22,943,558
Increase/decrease = -7,644 (0.03% decrease)

Even with only a 1.5% increase over the period (which is less than similar periods) we should have seen around 345,000 domains being added, bringing the total to around 23,295,470 so this is a startling difference.

Comparing similar periods from previous months:

June 12th: 22,071,306
June 24th: 22,531,238
Increase/decrease = +459,932 (2.28% increase)

May 12th: 17,513,791
May 24th: 18,016,647
Increase/decrease = +502,856 (2.87% increase)

April 12th: 16,726,767
April 24th: 17,030,054
Increase/decrease: +303,287 (1.81% increase)

Compare Christmas/New Year 2015/2016 (which might be expected to be a quiet period)

December 22nd: 10,987,060
January 3rd: 11,241,742
Increase/decrease = +254,682 (2.31% increase)

Same period last year:

July 12th 2015: 6,570,729
July 24th 2015: 6,676,608
Increase/decrease: +105,879 (1.61% increase)

 

[Mr Dobalina]

One person claiming reg fees are too high, one person claiming $1 regs are too low.

 

[JB Lions]

One person claiming reg fees are too high, one person claiming $1 regs are too low.

Actually, they were pointing out why the numbers that impress you are high, cheap regs, forget $1, even low as 1 penny.

It shouldn't surprise if the overall numbers go down.

Most are niche extensions. Most have a low number of keywords that actually make sense with those extensions. Let's call that x. Domainers registered x, but didn't stop there and registered a bunch of crap that made no sense. Most of that will eventually get dropped. Most cheap regs will drop. x will always have a good chance of staying registered, just most the registries have for themselves.

Then the neutral extensions don't look good (to me) gdn and xyzs and probably not to a lot of other people.

The most abused top level domains according to Spamhaus, all happen to be new gtlds - https://www.spamhaus.org/statistics/tlds/

The other thread in this section about them being blocked.

70,000 drop last 4 days - https://ntldstats.com/tld

 

[jmcc]

Most cheap regs will drop. x will always have a good chance of staying registered, just most the registries have for themselves.

Freebies tend to have a renewal rate of around 5%. That's the brickwall that some of thew heavily discounted new gTLDs are slamming into.

Regards...jmcc

 

[JB Lions]

Yep, going to be brutal next year, I think .xyz went up something like 3 million regs during that penny promotion.

 

[Canadian]

Lately .cloud & .store have been the only new gTLDs for me worthwhile registering a few of.
Registrations will likely go up again when promising extensions like .shop .app .hotels etc. will be released.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Registrations will likely go up again when promising extensions like .shop .app .hotels etc. will be released.

I think that all good names will be Premiums there... for 3/4/5-figure regfee.

 

[Canadian]

I think that all good names will be Premiums there... for 3/4/5-figure regfee.

I Love comments like that...
Meanwhile creative domainers that think outside the box and do their homework are able to register great gTLD domains at non-premium prices.

 

[Canadian]

All good names I checked are Premium priced in this new gTLD, so it's crap

 

[forge]

First reason that comes to mind is that no one has ever heard of ".energy"

People trust .com. And nothing that has happened so far with any ngTLDs has even hinted at that changing.

Further, intuitively your brand is "Green" and not GreenEnergy, and while that's a lovely color it really doesn't stand alone as a great brand.

 

[dordomai]

Lately .cloud & .store have been the only new gTLDs for me worthwhile registering a few of.
Registrations will likely go up again when promising extensions like .shop .app .hotels etc. will be released.

they will go up for a while and peak again then.

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

I Love comments like that...
Meanwhile creative domainers that think outside the box and do their homework are able to register great gTLD domains at non-premium prices.

If your homework is done - do you know what is non-premium regfee in these TLDs?
Like .best $70-100???

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Inside or outside the box - doesn't matter at all here...
If regfee will be more than $20 - then always will be a lot of available variants for endusers...

 

[Canadian]

I did my homework, that's why I don't own any .best .top .xyz .gdn etc. They don't make any sense imo regardless of price.

I don't have a problem at all paying $20+ for a great name

 

[dordomai]

Then the neutral extensions don't look good (to me) gdn and xyzs and probably not to a lot of other people.

.xyz = Examine Your Zipper, .gdn = Grace Delete Now

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

How about to renew 100+ names for $20+?

 

[MR Harrist]

I think new GTLd such xyz, top, site or what ever, still have long journey to go! at least they have to survive about 5-10 year a head and one of the biggest site on the internet using this extension! maybe, if wikipedia change their mind and using new tld from Org to XYZ, believe it or not, I will consider that TLd, have something! but if not, new tld that have $1 reg fee, for me personally I only see as an arsenal to push my rangking! why ? cheap cost :D and we need EMD to increase rangking! just FYI

For long term INvestment CCtld are the best! I am not saying dot US. it could be dot In, dot de or dot uk! but I doubt with dot UK, cause they have restriction! and that's bad idea! to be honest, CCtld that have right to give restriction only dot CN or Dot In, other than that it will end like dot US! i.e no trust to that cctld! including me! to be honest sometime I also worry for having dot US! because I would cry, if I build backlink and spend money and then suddenly the rules of games change! its like trick or treat though!

Additional Info:
If Daniel Cegari, make smart move by supporting or creating the biggest site on the internet, it could change the fundamental and increase XYZ value or perception! but at this moment, I am sory XYZ only as an arsenal lol

 

[Canadian]

How about to renew 100+ names for $20+?

That's real simple Jurgen
100 x $20 = $2000

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Then what will be your income after 2 years x $2K with 2 enduser-sales for $1.5K each (optimistic forecast)?
$1K loss???

 

[Canadian]

Then what will be your income after 2 years x $2K with 2 enduser-sales for $1.5K each (optimistic forecast)?
$1K loss???

Yes Jurgen, you are very good at math and optimistic forecasts

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

This forecast is for your "nTLD-creatives"...
Because really valuable names (plus-minus) are selling by Registries only...

 

[Landov]

The registrations dropped because it's harder and harder to find good domain names.

The bad ones will be ditched as the domainers become more experienced.

Less suply means an increase in price.

This is exactly what happened with .com

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

.shopping will be launched also... to lower your aftermarket-chances...

 

[Kate]

I Love comments like that...
Meanwhile creative domainers that think outside the box and do their homework are able to register great gTLD domains at non-premium prices.

Finding domains is the easy part. Selling them is a different story.

 

[alcy]

One person claiming reg fees are too high, one person claiming $1 regs are too low.

com average reg fee = 9$
far as I know no one ever complained about too low or too high .com regfee.
so as you see .com is quite perfect in all departments. including regfee.

nice try though

 

[Landov]

2xx nTLD-domains since 2014 without any sales... just 2 low offers for whole period.

Maybe we should ask @kohsamui what is his secret.