Unfortunately this all flies in the face of reality. The fundamentals have changed. LLLL.com was always mainly about domainers selling to each other. That market has largely dried up. Low quality LLLL.com's cannot be profitably sold to enduser aside from occasional low probability sales. That won't ever change, endusers don't want zfqp.com.
Hey, I agreed with Snoop that the buy-out might not hold, guess that wasn't enough for my favorite nay-sayer.
Amdo still has DYYO.com up, (thanks) and I point to this graph for the umpteenth time:
dyyo.com
The graph shows the decline in availability of LLLL.com in the last (nearly) two years of availability before the buyout,. If LLLL.com were dependent on domainer whims the graph would be choppy as the tides of public opinion rose and ebbed. Instead, it is as steady as any real-world trend could be. Domainer fads and flipper economics are not fundamental - real world end users are. I would argue that long-term collector/investor interest in LLLL.com is also fundamental, but either way there are solid reasons why LLLL.com is square in the path of future internet growth.
There are two ways to invest in Real Estate - buy or build in high value areas and receive a steady, modest income, or buy where you expect, based on all the information you can muster, future growth to take place. The second alternative is risky, you could choose the wrong area, but the potential profits are much higher. It also takes some time to mature - you don't get much rent from cow pasture. There are some "subdivisions" now on LLLL.com, but I cannot see a sector in .com more ripe for future expansion (please tell me if you can think of one). And betting on expansion of the internet (PC and Mobile) is as sure a thing as you are going to find these days.
snoop said:
Of course it has a bearing on the long term. Let's face it the outlook world wide has started to improve, the stock market is up 26% from its lows yet the LLLL.com market continues to decline - think about why this is happening. I think you'll find that as things recover it is the quality assets that will rebound, not junky stuff that has no underlying business element to it, the majority of people aren't going to make the same mistakes they made a year ago.
The Stock Market anticipates the economy by about 6 months, I am aware of no part of the domain market that has perked up so far. "Quality" assets will always be quality assets - Talk.com got $500,000, not reg fee - but a whole lot less than it would have gotten two years ago.
"Quality" domains are out of my price range. Even if they were not, their appreciation will mark time with the overall domain market. Not bad, better than stocks and bonds, but if I am to make headway toward my goals I need more than that. A whole lot more. I have to find those areas where the growth of the "city" will concentrate, those areas where the mainstream investors have not yet ventured. One beauty of short domains is that they
alll have business potential - better letters just increase the probability. I must confess here that I have very few LLLL.coms that are not triple premium or four taps, so I am not in the bottom end of this market - but I do believe bulk investors in the bottom end will do fine if they can hold long term. Probably better than "quality" domain holders, IMHO.
Most of my .Mobis are either LLLs or have clear business connections - I do not have that option in .Com in my price range, but I do the best that I can.
(see, we agree again)
snoop said:
Personally over the next couple of years I think we'll still see a small degree of investing in all those dud areas of domaining, people waiting for the "great rebound", .tv, .mobi, buyout LLLL.com's.
Two out of three, I cannot find an angle I like with .TV. I am not waiting for the great rebound, I am bracketing future end users, as best I can.
snoop said:
There is always someone who thinks they are "bargain hunting" or that immediate history will repeat. The best thing I can suggest to people is make sure you are doing something that returns a profit today. If your plan is to sit and wait hoping prices go up then you are screwed. Most of those people will be "reg fee'd out" at some point. What we are seeing in the current market is a cleaning out process, the bad business models are being turfed.
History does not repeat, but if a river floods, then goes down, it is a good bet that when it floods again it will occupy many of the same places. And if the water level is trending upward then todays lowlands are tomorrow's bays. Again, where else do you see future growth in currently inexpensive domains? The current domain market is in a cleaning out process
(agreed for the third time on one page!) But, I see those who cannot financially back up their investments being cleared out. Consider it a margin call - not really a good test of the investment.
...make sure you are doing something that returns a profit today ...
PPC again? Those opportunities are long gone. While I imagine that you, with your long experience, could dig out a few gems in the market, they still would not offer anywhere near the potential I seek in LLLL.coms.
