analysis World War III

[oldtimer]

I believe that President Biden was right when he said that Russia is going to Invade Ukraine.

Any intelligent person is going to come to the same conclusion knowing that Russia has already decided to pay any price imposed on it by the West through sanctions.

Short of full military confrontation by the West there is nothing that can make Russia to change its mind as they see this as a golden opportunity to resurrect the once powerful superpower that was equal to the USA.

But Russia’s ambitions are not going to stop with taking over Ukraine since it already has made plans to increase its sphere of influence to Asia, Middle East, and South America and perhaps the whole World knowing that the West is most likely not going to do anything beyond just imposing sanctions which ultimately will hurt the West itself by effecting the Global economy in an adverse way the longer that they go on.

I personally don’t like any of the old ideologies, philosophies, and doctrines of Capitalism, Communism, Socialism, Religious Fundamentalism and all the other “ism” that are derived from the bad human characteristics of Greed, Lust, Hate, Cruelty, Jealousy, Prejudice, and lack of Empathy and that have been infringing on our rights in one way or another throughout the history because they can only exist through supporting inequality, oppression, suppression, torture, killing, and War.

When it comes to saving the World the last thing that I want to see is the further expansion of these old systems that have all already proven to be a failure in dealing with the existential problems that are currently facing Humanity and the Environment.

We don’t want all these political, Religious, and Racial parties and groups to resurrect their past, we want something new that can propel the World into the next Era that is based on the Universal Principles and Values that have been derived through Logic and Compassion and not through Force and Violence.

By “We” I mean all the Intelligent, Righteous, and Peace loving people of the World.

IMO

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[Cal2]

That's right, they can't claim it's an existential threat without a single missile fired towards Russian soil.

Maybe they can:

"If, however, Russia’s conventional campaign in Ukraine continues to falter, it is entirely plausible that the Kremlin will justify a use of weapons of mass destruction by claiming that Russia’s “very existence” is threatened by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his people, whom he has already accused of seeking to develop a nuclear “dirty bomb.”"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...n-s-nuclear-threat-against-ukraine-is-serious

 

[oldtimer]

Load of rubbish and these peace talks have been a complete waste of time for the most part, Putin has no intention to make peace, he's made that perfectly clear.

This time around things might be different,

Both Russia and Ukraine are probably going to come to the same conclusion that it is in their best interest to deescalate the War at this time.

Considering all the factors that are at play here I personally think that there is a 90% chance for this War to come to an end soon. But that doesn't mean that Russia isn't going to take advantage of the opportunity to weaken Ukraine some more before the ceasefire officially goes into effect. So there is probably going to be some intense bombings before this all ends.

Right now the biggest obstacle to peace are those people who go by their emotions alone and don’t have the ability to recognize the new calculations that are at play here. Going forward both sides to this conflict most likely are going to focus all their efforts on doing Damage Control so that they won’t lose any more of their own people than they already have.

Nevertheless even if there was only 10% chance for all the killings to come to an end everyone owes it to the Civilians that are trapped and dying in Mariupol and other besieged Cities to give it their best to make these peace talks work.

In my opinion if Russia is going to regroup and reorganize its forces to peruse some of its original goals and agendas I believe that it will be another five years or so before we see a new operation being implemented in that region and that's only if the cold War continues even after a ceasefire agreement is reached.

IMO

 

[bmugford]

Yarema Dukh 🇺🇦 @yarko March 30, 2022

This is Chernihiv in the morning after Russia announced "withdrawal" from Chernihiv yesterday. "Chernihiv was shelled all night long" – Viacheslav Chaus, head of regional administration.

View original Load full embed

 

[Kingslayer]

This time around things might be different,

Yeah sure, see the tweet below your post what bmugford posted, you cannot make any kind of deal with Russia because they have a 100% record in breaking it.

They are not interested in peace with Ukraine, Putin wants Ukraine's (land) as part of Russia and thats all he cares about, you can call it an obsessive vision of his if you will, so why is he going to back out on that now? If he does, he will never see it in his lifetime, even though he won't anyway, Ukrainians will never become an extension of Russia again, especially after this, so unless he kills every single Ukrainian (which he's trying) he's doomed to fail, the trouble is Putin the so called 'master strategist' is the only one who can't see it.

 

[Cal2]

Yarema Dukh 🇺🇦 @yarko March 30, 2022

This is Chernihiv in the morning after Russia announced "withdrawal" from Chernihiv yesterday. "Chernihiv was shelled all night long" – Viacheslav Chaus, head of regional administration.

View original Load full embed

Russian Forces Unleash ‘Colossal’ Attack on Ukrainian Residents in Chernihiv as They Were Sleeping​

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russi...idents-as-they-sleep-authorities-say?ref=home

 

[.X.]

If you think about it , what does Putin have to lose now ?? His life? He knows his days are numbered now matter , So Putin probably has excepted his end fate , The question right now IMO , does Putin have any inner feelings for the worlds society , or the earth in general IMO , I base that assessment off Putins normal daily persona prior to this conflict , Huge pride , Giant ego , and extremely power hungry .

Is it possible Putins current state of mind could be , If Russia can’t have it, nobody can ??

 

[Mister Funsky]

The site below is keeping a current list of international companies operating in Russia. As of today, only one on the list is providing 'necessary' products (on the primary page).

Info a code to share the info are on the page.

https://www.dontfundwar.com/

https://www.dontfundwar.com/directory

 

[bmugford]

If you think about it , what does Putin have to lose now ?? His life? He knows his days are numbered now matter , So Putin probably has excepted his end fate , The question right now IMO , does Putin have any inner feelings for the worlds society , or the earth in general IMO , I base that assessment off Putins normal daily persona prior to this conflict , Huge pride , Giant ego , and extremely power hungry .

Is it possible Putins current state of mind could be , If Russia can’t have it, nobody can ??

Yeah, I said something similar earlier in this thread.

It is clear the war is going poorly. It is clear their military is not all it was cracked up to be.

It seems like the entire chain of command is run by corrupt "yes-men". It is likely a shock to Putin who was told what he wanted to hear over the strength and preparedness.

What will a narcissist with the power do to protect their fragile ego? Who knows? That is the scary part.

Brad

 

[oldtimer]

If you think about it , what does Putin have to lose now ?? His life? He knows his days are numbered now matter , So Putin probably has excepted his end fate , The question right now IMO , does Putin have any inner feelings for the worlds society , or the earth in general IMO , I base that assessment off Putins normal daily persona prior to this conflict , Huge pride , Giant ego , and extremely power hungry .

Is it possible Putins current state of mind could be , If Russia can’t have it, nobody can ??

To get the Donbas region freed is probably considered a huge win by Russia which it can sell to its own people back at home as a success for the operation that it started in Ukraine.

To get the killing of Civilians and the further destruction of the besieged Cities to stop and for Ukraine to not go totally out of existence (even if it has to become a Neutral Country) is considered a win by Ukrainian government at this point also.

Russia might see it's standing in the International community to still be salvageable by making some compromises and agreeing to pull back out of Kyiv. And it certainly sees it to be in its interest to stop the increasing number of casualties amongs it's own troops considering that it is now facing an internal backlash at home over the mishandling of this operation.

I believe that both sides have enough sense to change their calculations to match the new realities on the ground and as such they both are going to see it to be in their interest to bring this War to an end at this time because they both realize how damaging it could become to themselves if it continued beyond this point.

Whether the peace talks are going to be successful in the long run or not hinges on whether Russia is going to be given a way out to save face and if it can feel that the cold War mentality of NATO that put its security at risk in the first place can come to an end as part of reaching a peace agreement in Ukraine.

IMO

 

[.X.]

To get the Donbas region freed is probably considered a huge win by Russia which it can sell to its own people back at home as a success for the operation that it started in Ukraine.

To get the killing of Civilians and the further destruction of the besieged Cities to stop and for Ukraine to not go totally out of existence (even if it has to become a Neutral Country) is considered a win by Ukrainian government at this point also.

Russia might see it's standing in the International community to still be salvageable by making some compromises and agreeing to pull back out of Kyiv. And it certainly sees it to be in its interest to stop the increasing number of casualties amongs it's own troops considering that it is now facing an internal backlash at home over the mishandling of this operation.

I believe that both sides have enough sense to change their calculations to match the new realities on the ground and as such they both are going to see it to be in their interest to bring this War to an end at this time because they both realize how damaging it could become to themselves if it continued beyond this point.

Whether the peace talks are going to be successful in the long run or not hinges on whether Russia is going to be given a way out to save face and if it can feel that the cold War mentality of NATO that put its security at risk in the first place can come to an end as part of reaching a peace agreement in Ukraine.

IMO

I thought about it long hard yesterday , I don’t believe Putin is going to stop , he wants the whole country of Ukraine , I think Putin has dialed back to reorganize now that he knows what Ukraine has got, I think Putin will strike 100% harder and more fierce up and coming , Putin himself has no where to go , very little turn to, I think Putin is fully aware there is no life for him after the conflict ends.

 

[bmugford]

I think Putin is fully aware there is no life for him after the conflict ends.

Nor Russia as a world power. This action has been highly damaging to their credibility and relevancy on the world stage.

The rest of the world is going to largely move on without them. Even if there is a resolution, the sanctions will remain and it is highly unlikely that many international companies are going to be in any rush to do business with them anytime soon.

Brad

 

[bmugford]

To get the Donbas region freed is probably considered a huge win by Russia which it can sell to its own people back at home as a success for the operation that it started in Ukraine.

To get the killing of Civilians and the further destruction of the besieged Cities to stop and for Ukraine to not go totally out of existence (even if it has to become a Neutral Country) is considered a win by Ukrainian government at this point also.

Russia might see it's standing in the International community to still be salvageable by making some compromises and agreeing to pull back out of Kyiv. And it certainly sees it to be in its interest to stop the increasing number of casualties amongs it's own troops considering that it is now facing an internal backlash at home over the mishandling of this operation.

I believe that both sides have enough sense to change their calculations to match the new realities on the ground and as such they both are going to see it to be in their interest to bring this War to an end at this time because they both realize how damaging it could become to themselves if it continued beyond this point.

Whether the peace talks are going to be successful in the long run or not hinges on whether Russia is going to be given a way out to save face and if it can feel that the cold War mentality of NATO that put its security at risk in the first place can come to an end as part of reaching a peace agreement in Ukraine.

IMO

I don't see this as a "both sides" issue. One country invaded the other and is violently attacking civilian targets.
It is clear which side is morally, ethically, and legally wrong.

Ukraine, nor the world, has any obligation to give Russia an "out" because their conflict is going so poorly.

In the past when people tried to appease tyrants it did not end well.

Many people in Russia simply believe Ukraine does not have a right to exist as an independent country. You can't have serious negotiations with that stance.

Brad

 

[.X.]

Nor Russia as a world power. This action has been highly damaging to their credibility and relevancy on the world stage.

The rest of the world is going to largely move on without them. Even if there is a resolution, the sanctions will remain and it is highly unlikely that many international companies are going to be in any rush to do business with them anytime soon.

Brad

I agree , Russia comes out this very weakened, perhaps on its knees , China is the only country that come to its aid IMO , and that will be limited , China could bail on Russia too

 

[mr-x]

I don't know about that, they'd putting their diplomatic relations with the mediators & others at great risk if it's just a show. Plus, "regroup & resupply" doesn't happen in secret these days, satellites/foreign intelligence & even Google can see everything. They never had the element of surprise to begin with, not even on day 1 of the war.

Russia lost the momentum and causalities are much higher than expected. Regrouping and securing supply lines, while using peace talks to "buy" time and maneuver without being attacked seems logical. It's not a secret it's just obfuscation.

I read Russia called up 100,000 reservist. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Cannuck]

I read Russia called up 100,000 reservist. I hope I'm wrong.

I believe you read correctly, and it appears Russia ain't goin' anywhere soon...

Russia to covertly mobilize reserves, conscript Chechen convicts​

Russia is concealing the fact that it is mass mobilizing combat reserves and conscripting Chechen convicts to replenish its forces in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) alleged on Tuesday.

GUR asserted starting April 1, Russia will mobilize reservists throughout the federation at the same time as scheduled conscription, to "cover for a large number of mobilized people who will arrive at military enlistment offices." The directorate claimed that 100,000 Russians had signed contracts under the BARS-2021 military reserves program that will supposedly be utilized.

Concurrently, as part of the same military reserves program, Russia is allegedly recruiting convicts from the Chechen Chernokozovo penal colony. GUR claimed that 100 prisoners with serious criminal convictions — including robbery, murder and drug trafficking — have been promised full amnesty in exchange for enlistment, and if they returned alive from the war. GUR reported that criminals who agreed to join the military were not allowed to inform their families. The intelligence body also said that those convicted of political crimes were not offered the deal.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-702629

 

[.X.]

Russia lost the momentum and causalities are much higher than expected. Regrouping and securing supply lines, while using peace talks to "buy" time and maneuver without being attacked seems logical. It's not a secret it's just obfuscation.

I read Russia called up 100,000 reservist. I hope I'm wrong.

I don’t think you are wrong about the reservist , I also think Russia has mercenaries embedded through out Ukraine now , they can easily blend with Ukraine people .

Something to keep in mind folks , Russias military consists of 900,000 active duty soldiers , 2million Reservists . With that said , what did Putin initially deploy? Scabs or ?? We know his initial deployment consisted of outdated weaponry, what does he have ? What is Russias capabilities ?

Those are the questions I ask, because I know Putin has far more technological weaponry.

Could Putin have been sand bagging in the initial deployment and up to this day ?

 

[bmugford]

Either Russia is blatantly going after civilian targets, or they are just going after everything indiscriminately. Well, I guess it can be both also.

 

[Tatiana_B]

Russia has lost 17,200 troops since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as nearly 600 tanks and 127 aircraft.

This is evidenced by data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Total enemy combat losses:

• personnel – about 17,200 people
• tanks – 597 units
• armored combat vehicles – 1710 units
• artillery systems – 303 units
• MLRS – 96 units
• air defense systems – 54 units
• aircraft – 127 units
• helicopters – 129 units
• automotive equipment – 1178 units
• ships / boats – 7 units
• fuel tanks – 73 units
• UAVs of the operational-tactical level – 71 units
• special equipment – 21 units
• OTRK / TRK launchers – 4 units.

“The data is being clarified. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities,” the report says.

https://army.com.ua/hot-news/more-than-17000-soldiers-and-almost-600-tanks.html

 

[BRANDERX]

A gray market ..

Ukraine conflict: Russia to allow unauthorised imports from West​

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60932975​

 

[Cal2]

White House: Intel shows Putin misled by advisers on Ukraine​

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being misinformed by advisers about his military’s poor performance in Ukraine, according to the White House. The advisers are scared to tell him the truth, the intel says.

The findings, recently declassified, indicate that Putin is aware of the situation on information coming to him and there now is persistent tension between him and senior Russian military officials.

The U.S. believes Putin is being misled not only about his military’s performance but also “how the Russian economy is b eing crippled by sanctions because, again, his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth,” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said Wednesday.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-europe-00716c99579afeff701af31b32ef7c8c