analysis World War III

[oldtimer]

I believe that President Biden was right when he said that Russia is going to Invade Ukraine.

Any intelligent person is going to come to the same conclusion knowing that Russia has already decided to pay any price imposed on it by the West through sanctions.

Short of full military confrontation by the West there is nothing that can make Russia to change its mind as they see this as a golden opportunity to resurrect the once powerful superpower that was equal to the USA.

But Russia’s ambitions are not going to stop with taking over Ukraine since it already has made plans to increase its sphere of influence to Asia, Middle East, and South America and perhaps the whole World knowing that the West is most likely not going to do anything beyond just imposing sanctions which ultimately will hurt the West itself by effecting the Global economy in an adverse way the longer that they go on.

I personally don’t like any of the old ideologies, philosophies, and doctrines of Capitalism, Communism, Socialism, Religious Fundamentalism and all the other “ism” that are derived from the bad human characteristics of Greed, Lust, Hate, Cruelty, Jealousy, Prejudice, and lack of Empathy and that have been infringing on our rights in one way or another throughout the history because they can only exist through supporting inequality, oppression, suppression, torture, killing, and War.

When it comes to saving the World the last thing that I want to see is the further expansion of these old systems that have all already proven to be a failure in dealing with the existential problems that are currently facing Humanity and the Environment.

We don’t want all these political, Religious, and Racial parties and groups to resurrect their past, we want something new that can propel the World into the next Era that is based on the Universal Principles and Values that have been derived through Logic and Compassion and not through Force and Violence.

By “We” I mean all the Intelligent, Righteous, and Peace loving people of the World.

IMO

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[Kingslayer]

So maybe it's time to step up the effort to switch to renewable energies, or at least to other more clean energy sources.
If not for the oil and gas exports, Putler woudn't have a penny to finance his war machine.

What the world cannot do is remain indifferent and without sanctions watching the daily massacre of innocent civilians that Putin's regime is inflicting on Ukraine, due to a totally unjustifiable invasion of a sovereign country and democracy.

That’s going to be happening anyway within the next 40 years.

Russia is a country that doesn’t export anything out other than gas, oil and coal, its long term future looked bleak anyway, could be one of the reasons why they are stuck 100 years into the past and still want consume other countries/resources.

Like Japan after WW2 a whole revamp of their country needed, from ideologically and their relationship with the world and they need to come up with different ways they can contribute to the world and grow their economy from that next chapter after gas and oil, I think I’ve spoken about it in a previous post, as a country Russia has so much potential, but Russia as a country what they are now, if it was possible for a country to disapear from the face of the earth i don't think 90% of the world would miss them.

 

[Sutruk]

Mariupol cites witnesses suggesting 300 may have been killed in theatre bombing​

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-have-been-killed-theatre-bombing-2022-03-25/

LVIV, Ukraine, March 25 (Reuters) - Local officials, citing witness accounts, said as many as 300 people may have been killed in the bombing of a theatre in the besieged southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol on March 16.

The Ukrainian government has previously said it was impossible to tell how many were killed because Mariupol is in chaos and under almost constant bombardment from Russian forces.

"From witnesses comes information that about 300 people died in the Mariupol Drama Theatre as a result of the bombing by a Russian plane," the Mariupol city council said in a statement on Friday.

Ukrainian officials have said that about 130 people were rescued from the rubble and that the theatre basement had withstood the attack.

Mariupol, which is normally home to about 400,000 people, has been under heavy bombardment for weeks. Civilians trapped there have been sheltering in basements with little food, power or running water.

 

[Sutruk]

Ukrainian forces advance east of Kyiv as Russians fall back​

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ukraine-urges-halt-russias-assault-biden-heads-poland-2022-03-25/

BUCHA/LVIV, Ukraine, March 25 (Reuters) - Ukrainian troops are recapturing towns east of Kyiv and Russian forces who had been trying to seize the capital are falling back on overextended supply lines, Britain said on Friday, one of the strongest indications yet of a shift in momentum in the war.

A month into their assault, Russian troops have failed to capture any major Ukrainian city. An offensive Western countries believe was aimed at swiftly toppling President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's government was halted at the gates of Kyiv.

The Russians instead have been bombarding, encircling and besieging cities, laying waste to residential areas and driving around a quarter of the 44 million population from their homes.

Battlelines near Kyiv have been frozen for weeks with two main Russian armoured columns menacing the capital from the northwest and the east. But in an intelligence update on Friday, Britain described a Ukrainian counter-offensive that had pushed Russians far back in the east.

"Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian forces falling back on overextended supply lines, has allowed Ukraine to reoccupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 km east of Kyiv," the update said.

 

[oldtimer]

Somethings to think about:

If Ukraine gets the upper hand in the War by gradually wearing Russian forces down is NATO then going to want the War to continue in order to run Russia aground with the ultimate goal of having a regime change or would it rather arrive at a peace agreement in order to defuse the situation.

Absent any peace agreements would Russia take NATO's plans to bring it down as an existential threat which according to their pre established protocols is going to require a Nuclear response.

On the other hand if Russia absorbs all its losses and manages to gain the upper hand by besieging Ukrainian Cities one at a time and continuing with its War of attrition until it gains control of the majority of Ukraine and even some areas in the smaller Eastern European Countries how far would NATO allow Russia to advance before it is stopped and how can Russia be stopped without getting into a Nuclear Confrontation.

Considering all these factors my long term assessment for this situation is that this War is going to continue for at least the next five years until Russia achieves all or most of its objectives and that’s provided that we are lucky and it wont escalate to a Nuclear Confrontation somewhere along the road.

This is a pure assessment of the current situation, I am not saying whether the results are just or not, but that without any immediate peace agreements things might end up somewhat unpleasant no matter how long the World continues with all the sanctions and constraints.

IMO

 

[Kingslayer]

Somethings to think about:

If Ukraine gets the upper hand in the War by gradually wearing Russian forces down is NATO then going to want the War to continue in order to run Russia aground with the ultimate goal of having a regime change or would it rather arrive at a peace agreement in order to defuse the situation.

Absent any peace agreements would Russia take NATO's plans to bring it down as an existential threat which according to their pre established protocols is going to require a Nuclear response.

On the other hand if Russia absorbs all its losses and manages to gain the upper hand by besieging Ukrainian Cities one at a time and continuing with its War of attrition until it gains control of the majority of Ukraine and even some areas in the smaller Eastern European Countries how far would NATO allow Russia to advance before it is stopped and how can Russia be stopped without getting into a Nuclear Confrontation.

Considering all these factors my long term assessment for this situation is that this War is going to continue for at least the next five years until Russia achieves all or most of its objectives and that’s provided that we are lucky and it wont escalate to a Nuclear Confrontation somewhere along the road.

This is a pure assessment of the current situation, I am not saying whether the results are just or not, but that without any immediate peace agreements things might end up somewhat unpleasant no matter how long the World continues with all the sanctions and constraints.

IMO

Truth is, if Russia stuggle it, it could be worse as they would have their backs to the wall and would be a wounded animal and if that happens, as seen by this conflict Russia are just that (animals) and i fear they would have no problems taking drastic measures such as chemcial weapons and if that happens Nato could get involved.

I don't know what the best scenario is, but Russia have lost anyway, what is their end goal? There's no way they can occupy Ukraine and is 'victory' and 'liberating' Ukraine showing images to Russian people of dead bodies of innocent people and Ukraine in ruins and uninhabitable for the next decade?

No matter what happens, as Ukraine and Russia are neighbours there's going to be a lot of hatred from Ukrainians towards Russia thats going to spill for generations, there's going to be a lot of people wanting revenge, groups could form with Ukrainians who have lost everything and wanting revenge attacks on Russia directly, i hope I'm wrong, but i think more innocent lives (from both sides) will be lost even when Russia do withdraw from Ukraine.

 

[.X.]

Somethings to think about:

If Ukraine gets the upper hand in the War by gradually wearing Russian forces down is NATO then going to want the War to continue in order to run Russia aground with the ultimate goal of having a regime change or would it rather arrive at a peace agreement in order to defuse the situation.

Absent any peace agreements would Russia take NATO's plans to bring it down as an existential threat which according to their pre established protocols is going to require a Nuclear response.

On the other hand if Russia absorbs all its losses and manages to gain the upper hand by besieging Ukrainian Cities one at a time and continuing with its War of attrition until it gains control of the majority of Ukraine and even some areas in the smaller Eastern European Countries how far would NATO allow Russia to advance before it is stopped and how can Russia be stopped without getting into a Nuclear Confrontation.

Considering all these factors my long term assessment for this situation is that this War is going to continue for at least the next five years until Russia achieves all or most of its objectives and that’s provided that we are lucky and it wont escalate to a Nuclear Confrontation somewhere along the road.

This is a pure assessment of the current situation, I am not saying whether the results are just or not, but that without any immediate peace agreements things might end up somewhat unpleasant no matter how long the World continues with all the sanctions and constraints.

IMO

Unless Putin is taken out of power, Putin isn’t going to lose this conflict IMO , Rather it’s biological - Chemical or Nukes , Putin is locked in and knows his days are numbered no matter.

If NATO enters the theater, I think Putin takes the path of least resistance , Nuclear foliage

 

[dirk]

Unless Putin is taken out of power, Putin isn’t going to lose this conflict IMO , Rather it’s biological - Chemical or Nukes , Putin is locked in and knows his days are numbered no matter.

If NATO enters the theater, I think Putin takes the path of least resistance , Nuclear foliage

Let's look at the options Hitler was facing, if he would have had a nuclear bomb.

https://www.history.co.uk/article/hitler-develops-an-atomic-bomb-what-happens-next

I see the comparison with Russia in the present. Difference being, they have the bombs.

 

[Kingslayer]

Let's look at the options Hitler was facing, if he would have had a nuclear bomb.

https://www.history.co.uk/article/hitler-develops-an-atomic-bomb-what-happens-next

I see the comparison with Russia in the present. Difference being, they have the bombs.

Thing is we know much more about nuclear weapons now than during WW2 and they are a lot more powerful. Even if Putin wanted to go out on his sword, which i don't believe he would, the man was terrified of covid and still is according to reports, so clearly values his life, others around him won't all be as crazy and will choose getting rid of him rather than them/their families and all Russia.

When it comes to survival people do what as to be done and when it comes to Russia, make no mistake, each and every one of Putin's cronies will stab each other in the back if it came to a 'him or me' scenario, anyone would really, especially for a cause where you know you are the bad guys and your leader is out of their mind and just gave an order to destroy the world.

You can be sure someone around Putin has already been offered a nice life in the US if they slip something in Putin's food, just a matter before someone takes them up on that offer.

 

[oldtimer]

Thing is we know much more about nuclear weapons now than during WW2 and they are a lot more powerful. Even if Putin wanted to go out on his sword, which i don't believe he would, the man was terrified of covid and still is according to reports, so clearly values his life, others around him won't all be as crazy and will choose getting rid of him rather than them/their families and all Russia.

When it comes to survival people do what as to be done and when it comes to Russia, no mistake, each and every one of Putin's cronies will stab each other in the back if it came to a 'him or me' scenario, anyone would really, escoaully for a cause where you know you are the bad guys and led by someone out of their mind.

You can be sure someone around Putin has already been afford a nice life in the US if they slip something in Putin's food, just a matter of time before someone does.

I think Russia is going to move away from some of the more powerful Nukes that can poison half the Planet and start making smaller tactical Nuclear weapons that can actually be used in a War without getting to the Armageddon level.

Most likely we might start seeing smaller warheads that can fit on those hypersonic missiles.

I assume that all other Countries will soon be moving towards this direction too.

IMO

 

[mr-x]

Seems to me you condemn your own president more than the actions of the mad Russian president in Ukraine.

It's sad that your camp cannot see the deliterious consequences of maintaining said election fraud on American integrity in world affairs. IMO

"It wouldn't surprise me at all if the US election fraud thingy wasn't afterall a Russian plot."

That's because you're a leftist and only see what you want to see, conspiracies and fabulous lies read to you on media outlets like msnbc and cnn.

 

[Cannuck]

"It wouldn't surprise me at all if the US election fraud thingy wasn't afterall a Russian plot."

That's because you're a leftist and only see what you want to see, conspiracies and fabulous lies read to you on media outlets like msnbc and cnn.

IMO anything left or center of Trump may be considered leftist to a binary thinker like yourself. The world is thankful agent orange is not at the table.

 

[.X.]

Thing is we know much more about nuclear weapons now than during WW2 and they are a lot more powerful. Even if Putin wanted to go out on his sword, which i don't believe he would, the man was terrified of covid and still is according to reports, so clearly values his life, others around him won't all be as crazy and will choose getting rid of him rather than them/their families and all Russia.

When it comes to survival people do what as to be done and when it comes to Russia, no mistake, each and every one of Putin's cronies will stab each other in the back if it came to a 'him or me' scenario, anyone would really, especially for a cause where you know you are the bad guys and your leader is out of their mind and just gave an order to destroy the world.

You can be sure someone around Putin has already been offered a nice life in the US if they slip something in Putin's food, just a matter before someone takes them up on that offer.

Yep, I agree , I think Putin is aware that he may get taken out by one of his own now , I think it stimulates Putin process of rational thinking , Putin now knows there is absolutely no way out for him, just like Hitler did , Putins persona has always been pride, ego and control.

 

[.X.]

Thing is we know much more about nuclear weapons now than during WW2 and they are a lot more powerful. Even if Putin wanted to go out on his sword, which i don't believe he would, the man was terrified of covid and still is according to reports, so clearly values his life, others around him won't all be as crazy and will choose getting rid of him rather than them/their families and all Russia.

When it comes to survival people do what as to be done and when it comes to Russia, no mistake, each and every one of Putin's cronies will stab each other in the back if it came to a 'him or me' scenario, anyone would really, especially for a cause where you know you are the bad guys and your leader is out of their mind and just gave an order to destroy the world.

You can be sure someone around Putin has already been offered a nice life in the US if they slip something in Putin's food, just a matter before someone takes them up on that offer.

Yep, I agree , I think Putin is aware that he may get taken out by one of his own now , I think it stimulates Putin process of rational thinking , Putin now knows there is absolutely no way out for him, just like Hitler did , Putins persona has always been pride, ego and control

 

[DmitrySV]

"Ukraine’s Propaganda War: International PR Firms, DC Lobbyists and CIA Cutouts"
Dan Cohen reveals the network of foreign strategists, Washington DC lobbyists, and intelligence-linked media outlets behind Ukraine’s public relations blitz

https://www.mintpressnews.com/ukrai...onal-pr-firms-dc-lobbyists-cia-cutouts/280012

 

[mr-x]

IMO anything left or center of Trump may be considered leftist to a binary thinker like yourself. The world is thankful agent orange is not at the table.

I appreciate your restraint in not mentioning Donald Trump more than a two or three times per day.

 

[Sutruk]

It seems that Putler is finally realizing that it will be impossible to invade all Ukraine, as even the big cities in Donbass (the russian-speaking population) are offering a fierce resistance against the russian invasion.
As the ukrainians of Donbass region say (russian speakers), they don't need to be "saved" by nobody, let alone by the russian Hitler.
---------------------------------

Russia to focus on 'liberating' Donbass region as it says first phase of invasion mostly complete​

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...s-back-at-kremlin-anti-russian-claim-12574539

"The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished," said Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate.

"The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbass."

 

[Sutruk]

Claims of mass deportations in Ukraine evoke painful history​

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-invasion-ukraine-deportations-claims-kidnapping-rcna21542

"The reports have filtered out for days: Mass kidnappings, forced deportations, Ukrainians spirited across the border to Russia.

The Ukrainian foreign ministry said Thursday that 6,000 residents of the besieged city of Mariupol had been “forcibly deported” by Russian forces — stripped of their passports and identity documents — and taken to Russia as “hostages.”

Russia, in turn, has cited the “evacuations” of more than 380,000 people from Ukraine to its territory.

Yet the language — “filtration camps” — and the imagery of mass deportations are particularly resonant, evoking a dark chapter in Russian history.

The trauma and memory of mass deportations inflicted by the then-Soviet Union are still fresh. An estimated 3 million people on the USSR’s borders were rounded up and forcibly deported to remote parts of Siberia and Central Asia between 1936 and 1952, according to the United Nations refugee agency. Some 60,000 were Poles and Ukrainians.

“What the occupiers are doing today is familiar to the older generation, who saw the horrific events of World War II, when the Nazis forcibly captured people,” it said in a statement March 19. “It is hard to imagine that in the 21st century people will be forcibly deported to another country."

 

[Cal2]

Russia’s war against Ukraine: March 25​

https://www.kyivpost.com/

----------

Kremlin TV Descends Into Screaming Match Over Putin’s War Failures​

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russi...dimir-putins-war-failures-in-ukraine?ref=home

 

[Cannuck]

Kremlin TV Descends Into Screaming Match Over Putin’s War Failures​

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russi...dimir-putins-war-failures-in-ukraine?ref=home

Russian state TV boasted Russian armed forces could overtake the entire neighboring country in a matter of 11 minutes.

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews February 27, 2022

Back in January, #Russia's state TV experts estimated it would take "approximately 11 minutes" to completely overtake #Ukraine, with minimal losses on their part.

So much for that. #StandWithUkraine

View original Load full embed

Their current predictions have shifted from minutes to decades...

Korotchenko surmised, “It’s obvious that the process of denazification of Ukraine will take the minimum of 15-20 years. Whether this will take 15, 20 years or more, time will tell.”

General Shamanov was even more pessimistic, as he grimly anticipated that it would take the “re-education” of at least two generations of Ukrainians before they would welcome or tolerate Russia’s dominance. He concluded: “Today, it can be clearly predicted that we will have to remain in Ukraine for 30-40 years.”

 

[oldtimer]

It appears that faced with the unexpected level of resistance by Ukrainian forces and the increasing number of casualties Russia has decided to limit its efforts to liberating the Donbas region for now.

At this time if a peaceful agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia this might result in reducing the scope of the War and eventually ending the hostilities,

But absent any meaningful agreements this will give Russia time to regroup and reorganize its forces and to adjust its strategies so that it can resume its bigger goals of taking over the East European Countries.

IMO