analysis World War III

[oldtimer]

I believe that President Biden was right when he said that Russia is going to Invade Ukraine.

Any intelligent person is going to come to the same conclusion knowing that Russia has already decided to pay any price imposed on it by the West through sanctions.

Short of full military confrontation by the West there is nothing that can make Russia to change its mind as they see this as a golden opportunity to resurrect the once powerful superpower that was equal to the USA.

But Russia’s ambitions are not going to stop with taking over Ukraine since it already has made plans to increase its sphere of influence to Asia, Middle East, and South America and perhaps the whole World knowing that the West is most likely not going to do anything beyond just imposing sanctions which ultimately will hurt the West itself by effecting the Global economy in an adverse way the longer that they go on.

I personally don’t like any of the old ideologies, philosophies, and doctrines of Capitalism, Communism, Socialism, Religious Fundamentalism and all the other “ism” that are derived from the bad human characteristics of Greed, Lust, Hate, Cruelty, Jealousy, Prejudice, and lack of Empathy and that have been infringing on our rights in one way or another throughout the history because they can only exist through supporting inequality, oppression, suppression, torture, killing, and War.

When it comes to saving the World the last thing that I want to see is the further expansion of these old systems that have all already proven to be a failure in dealing with the existential problems that are currently facing Humanity and the Environment.

We don’t want all these political, Religious, and Racial parties and groups to resurrect their past, we want something new that can propel the World into the next Era that is based on the Universal Principles and Values that have been derived through Logic and Compassion and not through Force and Violence.

By “We” I mean all the Intelligent, Righteous, and Peace loving people of the World.

IMO

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[Cannuck]

Enlighten me with facts then , concerning this conflict , what other that NATO started this conflict

From the mouth of the

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

 

[Sutruk]

Ukraine war: President Zelenskyy says millions of people could die if world does not act now to stop the bombing​

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...g-president-zelenskyy-tells-sky-news-12561844

"Speaking to Sky News' Alex Crawford, Volodymyr Zelenskyy accuses countries of being indecisive on the issue of "closing" the skies against what he called "the Nazis".

"If you are united against the Nazis and this terror, you have to close. Don't wait for me ask you several times, a million times. Close the sky.

"Close the sky and stop the bombing," he said, appealing for the world to act faster."

 

[oldtimer]

Like I said before there is no mechanism to lift sanctions.

Western countries have a habit of leaving sanctions around for years. The companies that left will be in no rush to do business with Russia again, especially now they are making it so you can't move foreign funds out and are threatening to nationalize private property from those companies.

The sanctions are bad, Russia's self-sanctions only make it that much worse for them.

The rest of the world will adapt their supply chains over time. Russia will be left behind.

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Wednesday that the export controls that have been leveled against Russia by the United States and its allies in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have “no expiration date.”



“There’s no expiration date,” Raimondo said. “We’re in it to win it and our allies are too.”

Brad it's not going to be as clear cut scenario as you like to see,

Boxed in and cut off from the rest of the World while facing economical strangulation through the sanctions the question is what is Russia going to do,

Is it going to wither and die or is it going to lash back and cripple the economy of the West.

You can't ignore the fact that Russia is still a Nuclear Superpower and at one point it might see it in its interest to unleash an offensive, but limited Nuclear strike on the infrastructure that supports the economy of the West such as oilfields, dams, and agricultural fields.

What is the World going to do then.

Everyone has to thread carefully or this will become a real Armageddon then.

IMO

 

[Kingslayer]

Considering what Putin faces if he just stops right now, I doubt he will stop now, with the sanctions, today 695 McDonalds , Coca Cola , Starbucks and the list goes on have removed themselves from Russia, Unless all the sanctions are reversed on Russia, The ending to all of this looks grim, Russia will be broker than Haiti with the sanctions, Putin is pretty unhinged right now, if he decides to end it all with Nukes , we wont be typing on here anymore.

He’s done it all himself. Thing is Russia's got so much potential as a country, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, why didn't they decide to focus on truly making their country great, things they was good at, that would benefit the whole of humanity, the Soviet Union did some great things in the space race, why couldn't they go that route to say they was the first country to colonise Mars, but no they have gone the imperial route even though the whole world has moved on from that crap.

 

[bmugford]

Brad it's not going to be as clear cut senario as you like to see,

Boxed in and cut off from the rest of the World while facing economical strangulation through the sanctions the question is what is Russia going to do,

Is it going to wither and die or is it going to lash back and cripple the economy of the West.

You can't ignore the fact that Russia is still a Nuclear Superpower and at one point it might see it in its interest to unleash an offensive, but limited Nuclear strike on the infrastructure that supports the economy of the West such as oilfields, dams, and agricultural fields.

What is the World going to do then.

Everyone has to thread carefully or this will become a real Armageddon then.

IMO

Nuclear weapons are meant to be a deterrent. Russia is using them to deter intervention in the actions of a tyrant.

You don't appease tyrants. They don't stop until they are stopped.
Did Hitler just stop when he was appeased?

Russia put themselves into this shitty no-win scenario by their own choice. I am sure they did not plan for their military to look this weak.

There is no chance they want an actual war with far better manned and armed nations. They are threatening nukes because of that weakness.

If Russia wants to start a nuclear war, I guess they can. It is probably more likely because of their Ukraine disaster.

Though at the same point where is the red line? Are you going to keep letting a country take over other countries because they threaten nukes.

I hope it doesn't come to it, but sooner or later if humanity has the ability to kill themselves...they will.
All it takes is one mad man with the power to light the match.

Brad

 

[oldtimer]

Nuclear weapons are meant to be a deterrent. Russia is using them to deter intervention in the actions of a tyrant.

You don't appease tyrants. They don't stop until they are stopped.
Did Hitler just stop when he was appeased?

Russia put themselves into this shitty no-win scenario by their own choice. I am sure they did not plan for their military to look this weak.

There is no chance they want an actual war with far better manned and armed nations. They are threatening nukes because of that weakness.

If Russia wants to start a nuclear war, I guess they can. It is probably more likely because of their Ukraine disaster.

Though at the same point where is the red line? Are you going to keep letting a country take over other countries because they threaten nukes.

I hope it doesn't come to it, but sooner or later if humanity has the ability to kill themselves...they will.
All it takes is one mad man with the power to light the match.

Brad

So from what Russia has demonstrated so far what do you think is going to happen in the next few weeks, is Russia going to whiter and die or is it going to lash back and go on the offensive against the West.

IMO

 

[bmugford]

So from what Russia has demonstrated so far what do you think is going to happen in the next few weeks, is Russia going to whiter and die or is it going to lash back and go on the offensive against the West.

IMO

I don't know. No one does.

They could start leveling cities and targeting civilians even more to beat Ukraine into submission.
It could go chemical. The regime could fall.

The problem is there are no good options. Putin has put Russia in a no-win situation.

Their economy is essentially destroyed because of these actions, the military looks weak, and there is nothing to actually win. The people and world will not accept Russia occupying Ukraine.

I don't see how Russia's saves face from this debacle. What will someone do to protect their fragile ego?
Who knows.

Brad

 

[Sutruk]

‘Pure genocide’: civilian targets in Mariupol ‘annihilated’ by Russian attacks​

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ts-in-mariupol-annihilated-by-russian-attacks

"Deputy mayor of southern Ukrainian city says people living in ‘medieval conditions’ after week of continuous shelling.

Russian forces surrounded Mariupol a week ago. They have been shelling it “continuously” ever since, Sergiy Orlov said, in a call with the Guardian and other foreign media.

“They have used aviation, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, grads and other types of weapons we don’t even know about. This isn’t simply treacherous. It’s a war crime and pure genocide,” he said.

He added: “Vladimir Putin means to capture Mariupol whatever the human cost.”

He said 1,170 people had been killed. On Wednesday, municipal workers buried 47 victims in a mass grave.

“We couldn’t identify all of them,” Orlov said. The message from Moscow was chillingly clear, he suggested: “Putin intends to destroy Ukraine so he can have Ukraine without Ukrainians."

Putin’s goals, he said, were proceeding at a terrifying pace. The city has spent the last eight days without heat, power, gas, or electricity. Russians parked up in tanks and armoured vehicles on Mariupol’s coastal outskirts had bombed all 15 power lines, Orlov said. On Monday, they blew up the gas connection.

“We sent a team of workers to repair the line. The Russians immediately shelled them. They had to leave,” he said.

Consequently, the city’s 400,000 residents were living in freezing “medieval conditions”, unthinkable in what was until two weeks ago a modern and “flourishing” city, with busy cafes and restaurants.

“The only way civilians can cook now is on open fires. People are fighting over firewood. They are happy that it’s cold and snowing. Snow means they have something to drink.”

“A six-year-old girl died of dehydration,” Orlov continued bitterly. “This is Europe, in 2022. How can that happen?” He added: “A lot of districts are devastated. They are dropping half-tonne bombs from the sky."

 

[oldtimer]

I don't know. No one does.

They could start leveling cities and targeting civilians even more to beat Ukraine into submission.
It could go chemical. The regime could fall.

The problem is there are no good options. Putin has put Russia in a no-win situation.

Their economy is essentially destroyed because of these actions, the military looks weak, and there is nothing to actually win. The people and world will not accept Russia occupying Ukraine.

I don't see how Russia's saves face from this debacle. What will someone do to protect their fragile ego?
Who knows.

Brad

The truth of the matter is that when we are dealing with the destiny of the whole human race we have to put all the factors that are at play into our calculations and be willing to consider all the possible outcomes in order to be able to make the right decisions.

Obviously no one can be 100% sure as to how the events are going to unfold in the next few weeks, but we can make an educated assessment of the situation at hand and come up with a percentage of probability for each action and the subsequent reactions that might take place here based on our understanding of the forces that are at work and the logical (and to some extent intuitive) conclusions that we have made thus far that have come true.

Based on the above info I predict that there is 85% chance that Russia will lash back at the West (mainly Europe) within the next few weeks in response to the current sanctions. Not so much in populated areas, but rather in a calculated manner that is aimed to damage the World's economy without starting WWIII.

IMO

 

[BRANDERX]

Zelenskyy is open to concessions in dialogue with Russia... a wise decision IMO.

"Regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this question long ago after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine." Zelensky added, "The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country which is begging something on its knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president."

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-zelensky-says-cooled-joining-181721289.html

Would be a good call to forget about NATO, it's not even worth it. Something the French president described as "clinically dead" couple of years ago, & "Obsolete" by the American president. .. & Russia should drop its plan to disarm Ukraine. Still, the two new republics are a problem.

I think both Russian & Ukrainian FMs are in Turkey for talks, diplomacy.. Hope something good's cooking..

 

[Cannuck]

Would be a good call to forget about NATO, it's not even worth it. Something the French president described as "clinically dead" couple of years ago, & "Obsolete" by the American president. .. & Russia should drop its plan to disarm Ukraine. Still, the two new republics are a problem.

I think both Russian & Ukrainian FMs are in Turkey for talks, diplomacy.. Hope something good's cooking..

Would you say that NATO has been obsolete? Hamstrung perhaps, but if not for NATO, Ukraine would be obsolete. IMO

It is my hope that Zelenskyy will give concessions and Russia will accept, for instance a Dnipro Line, demarking the neutral zone.

As for Russia, they are going into cyber lockdown no later than March 11. Then Putin will retreat to his palace with a stash of gold and a division of his personal goons and hold out, giving the West a headache wherever and whenever he can. IMO

 

[Sutruk]

Three dead - including a child - in Russian airstrike on Mariupol hospital, say officials - as Zelenskyy urges world to act now to end 'barbarous war'​

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...it-by-russian-airstrikes-in-zhytomyr-12562041

"News of the casualties comes after two more hospitals were bombed in Russian airstrikes on the Ukrainian city of Zhytomyr, its mayor Serhii Sukhomlyn said - one of them was a children's hospital and no one was wounded.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) confirmed there have been 18 attacks on medical facilities since the Russian invasion began."

 

[Sutruk]

Russia could use chemical or biological weapons, White House warns​

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...biological-weapons-white-house-warns-12562071

"Russia could be laying the groundwork for the use of chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, the White House has warned.

Press secretary Jen Psaki made the remarks in response to Russia's claim Ukraine was running chemical and biological weapons labs with US support.

"This is all an obvious ploy by Russia to try to justify its further premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attack on Ukraine," Ms Psaki tweeted.

"Now that Russia has made these false claims, and China has seemingly endorsed this propaganda, we should all be on the lookout for Russia to possibly use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, or to create a false flag operation using them."

 

[bmugford]

Russian Billionaire Roman Abramovich, Owner of Chelsea Soccer Club, Is Sanctioned by U.K.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60690362

 

[bmugford]

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[Cal2]

Kremlin’s Lavrov Somehow Manages to Say ‘We Didn’t Attack Ukraine’ With Straight Face​

Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is comforting himself ahead of his future war-crimes trial by somehow convincing himself that Russia didn’t attack Ukraine and that blowing up children’s hospitals is actually fine. On Thursday, Lavrov lived up to his reputation as one of the Kremlin’s slimiest operators by spouting a string of breathtaking falsehoods in front of the world’s media. With a straight face, the foreign minister insisted that every piece of footage and every testimonial from Ukraine is somehow made up, and had the gall to say the words: “We are not planning to attack other countries. We didn’t attack Ukraine in the first place.” Asked what was behind Russia’s decision to bomb a maternity and children’s hospital in the city of Mariupol, Lavrov insisted the facility was actually full of Ukrainian “radicals” who had “chased out” all patients. He made that false claim despite the fact that one child died in the bombing.
Read it at Sky News

https://www.thedailybeast.com/serge...nt-attack-ukraine-with-straight-face?ref=home

 

[oldtimer]

Top level talks between Ukraine and Russia today fail again in producing anything substantial in the way of ceasefire.

That probably means that the civilian casualties are going to continue and perhaps increase.

At this time I get a sense that Oil tankers in the sea are going to be a prime target for Russia. (similar to u-boat attacks of WWII)

IMO

 

[.X.]

Top level talks between Ukraine and Russia today fail again in producing anything substantial in the way of ceasefire.

That probably means that the civilian casualties are going to continue and perhaps increase.

At this time I get a sense that Oil tankers in the sea are going to be a prime target for Russia. (similar to u-boat attacks of WWII)

IMO

Decisions are going to have to be made soon by Putin as to rather he is going to completely pursue or end the conflict IMO the conflict is at a point that Putin could call his military back home right now , if the Russian military continues to pursue there will become a point of no return IMO ..

 

[oldtimer]

Decisions are going to have to be made soon by Putin as to rather he is going to completely pursue or end the conflict IMO the conflict is at a point that Putin could call his military back home right now , if the Russian military continues to pursue there will become a point of no return IMO ..

Russia is not going to back off at this point,

Unfortunately Ceasefire and Peace at this time is not in Russia's advantage as it only going to bring War crime trials and perhaps even a regime change for them by the West.

The only way that they can survive is by escalating this situation to much higher levels.

I am surprised that I am the only one that can see this.

IMO

 

[koolishman]

The only way that they can survive is by escalating this situation to much higher levels.

I think NATO knows this.

Hope wiser heads prevail.