analysis World War III

[oldtimer]

I believe that President Biden was right when he said that Russia is going to Invade Ukraine.

Any intelligent person is going to come to the same conclusion knowing that Russia has already decided to pay any price imposed on it by the West through sanctions.

Short of full military confrontation by the West there is nothing that can make Russia to change its mind as they see this as a golden opportunity to resurrect the once powerful superpower that was equal to the USA.

But Russia’s ambitions are not going to stop with taking over Ukraine since it already has made plans to increase its sphere of influence to Asia, Middle East, and South America and perhaps the whole World knowing that the West is most likely not going to do anything beyond just imposing sanctions which ultimately will hurt the West itself by effecting the Global economy in an adverse way the longer that they go on.

I personally don’t like any of the old ideologies, philosophies, and doctrines of Capitalism, Communism, Socialism, Religious Fundamentalism and all the other “ism” that are derived from the bad human characteristics of Greed, Lust, Hate, Cruelty, Jealousy, Prejudice, and lack of Empathy and that have been infringing on our rights in one way or another throughout the history because they can only exist through supporting inequality, oppression, suppression, torture, killing, and War.

When it comes to saving the World the last thing that I want to see is the further expansion of these old systems that have all already proven to be a failure in dealing with the existential problems that are currently facing Humanity and the Environment.

We don’t want all these political, Religious, and Racial parties and groups to resurrect their past, we want something new that can propel the World into the next Era that is based on the Universal Principles and Values that have been derived through Logic and Compassion and not through Force and Violence.

By “We” I mean all the Intelligent, Righteous, and Peace loving people of the World.

IMO

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[bmugford]

I’ve just been thinking about Putin, it’s strange but in the west there was that ‘respect’ there towards Putin where you thought powerful leader, who always outsmarted many countries and presidents over the years.

Everything from the Salisbury poisonings, interfering in US elections, having Russian bots all on Twitter, having Donald Trump wrapped around his finger, even Crimea, he got away with that in some ways putting it down to ‘pro- Russian separatists’ but with invading the whole of Ukraine It is like he’s lost his power, Joe Biden’s got all the power over him now, even Boris Johnson and all other leaders around the world, they all have power over him.

The whole macho image he’s tried to build for himself over the years is now lost, the world see Zelenskyy as this powerful leader now, something he didn’t even want and everything Putin wanted to be.

I think he thought he was going to march in and take Ukraine over with basically no losses. It did not happen.

I don't understand the strategy of sending in the poorly trained troops and junky equipment first. I mean is that the strategy or is that mainly what they actually have?

Are we looking at a Wizard of Oz situation, where once the (iron) curtain is pulled back what we see is not as intimidating as what was portrayed?

Brad

 

[rh2000]

Look on the bright side …Putin cured COVID

Yes he did. Justin did to.

 

[Sutruk]

Inna Sovsun, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, accused Putin of deliberately terrorizing civilians both from the air and on the ground.

“It seems that Putin’s plans of blitzkrieg have failed, and because they have failed so badly, the Russian soldiers are now turning into cruelty,” Sovsun said on MSNBC. “We have heard from some Russian soldiers who have been held prisoners by the Ukrainian army who directly said that Russian officers are telling their soldiers to shoot at civilians.”

 

[Kingslayer]

I think he thought he was going to march in and take Ukraine over with basically no losses. It did not happen.

I don't understand the strategy of sending in the poorly trained troops and junky equipment first. I mean is that the strategy or is that mainly what they actually have?

Are we looking at a Wizard of Oz situation, where once the (iron) curtain is pulled back what we see is not as intimidating as what was portrayed?

Brad

Yeah no matter what happens, Russia's armed forces haven’t looked good.

Also want to emphasize from my last post, we always knew Putin was a killer, but no one thought he was a Hitler.

 

[Cannuck]

How Vladimir Putin weaponises refugees​

What is less well-known is how immigrants have become a tool of war - one that is increasingly deployed by cruel, inhumane autocrats such as Putin.

Since the start of this conflict, at least half a million Ukrainians have crossed into neighbouring countries; according to the EU’s latest warnings, that figure could rise to seven million.

This time, however, it’s unclear if Putin will leave any Ukrainian territory for them to flee to. And make no mistake: this is all part of his plan. Indeed, Putin has become the world’s leading advocate of hybrid warfare.

https://unherd.com/2022/03/vladimir-putins-secret-weapon/

Migration as a Weapon in Theory and in Practice

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Por...es/English/MilitaryReview_20161231_art007.pdf

 

[alop]

Yeah no matter what happens, Russia's armed forces haven’t looked good.

Also want to emphasize from my last post, we always knew Putin was a killer, but no one thought he was a Hitler.

They seem armed and ready..with China backing them up the invasion is scary. I hope it can cool off before we fall into any deeper shiiiii

 

[Sutruk]

I don't understand the strategy of sending in the poorly trained troops and junky equipment first. I mean is that the strategy or is that mainly what they actually have?

Many of the russian soldiers now prisoners by the ukrainians look to be 18 years old. One would think that in this invasion, if Putin wanted to make a fast entry, they would have been the best trained russian soldiers to make that crucial fast invasion. But maybe those are already their best troops.

Also many tanks are abandoned on the ground, I guess because some russian soldiers felt that they were not doing the right thing there, or due to lack of provisions or ran out of gas.

I think they have been told to drive the tanks to one direction and not much more. Not too much planned, as the russian Hitler thought in his dreams that it was going to be a triumphant entrance into Ukraine.
But it seems that nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine's border are now fighting inside the country. And that's around 190,000 soldiers.

------------------------------

Nearly All of Russia's Initial Invasion Forces Now in Ukraine, Pentagon Says​

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/bus...et-russian-troops-are-now-in-ukraine/3586960/

"President Joe Biden has previously said Russia had 190,000 troops in military readiness.

Yet even considering the size of the forces, the two main Russian convoys outside Ukraine's major cities of Kharkiv and Kyiv remain stalled, the official said, according to NBC News.

Invading Russian forces have struggled to overcome a weak logistical resupply system, which has resulted in scores of tanks and trucks being stranded across eastern and central Ukraine because the vehicles broke down or ran out of gas."

 

[Sutruk]

How Vladimir Putin weaponises refugees​

What is less well-known is how immigrants have become a tool of war - one that is increasingly deployed by cruel, inhumane autocrats such as Putin.

Since the start of this conflict, at least half a million Ukrainians have crossed into neighbouring countries; according to the EU’s latest warnings, that figure could rise to seven million.

This time, however, it’s unclear if Putin will leave any Ukrainian territory for them to flee to. And make no mistake: this is all part of his plan. Indeed, Putin has become the world’s leading advocate of hybrid warfare.

https://unherd.com/2022/03/vladimir-putins-secret-weapon/

Migration as a Weapon in Theory and in Practice

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Por...es/English/MilitaryReview_20161231_art007.pdf

I don't doubt that Putin weaponises refugees and everything he can weaponise. But in this case, it seems more like the russian Hitler now wants to mass kill the most civilians as possible. And of course, as part of his tactics, this one is to discourage ukrainian spirit by mass killing their population. That's the only reason to siege cities, to cut off water, electricity, food and medicine supplies, and to attack the few flee routes once they are opened. The aim is to mass kill ukrainian civilians to discourage the country. But, it won't work there because ukrainians seem really focused and determined to resist, fight and even die for their country if necessary.

As I wrote in a post above, Putin's plans of quick invasion have failed, so the russian soldiers are now turning into inhumane cruelty. Russian officers are telling their soldiers to shoot at civilians. And russian officers don't move a finger without Putin's instructions.

------------------------------

Inna Sovsun, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, accused Putin of deliberately terrorizing civilians both from the air and on the ground:

“It seems that Putin’s plans of blitzkrieg have failed, and because they have failed so badly, the Russian soldiers are now turning into cruelty,” Sovsun said on MSNBC. “We have heard from some Russian soldiers who have been held prisoners by the Ukrainian army who directly said that Russian officers are telling their soldiers to shoot at civilians.”

 

[Cannuck]

I don't doubt that Putin weaponises refugees and everything he can weaponise. But in this case, it seems more like the russian Hitler now wants to mass kill the most civilians as possible. And of course, as part of his tactics, this one is to discourage ukrainian spirit by mass killing their population. That's the only reason to siege cities, to cut off water, electricity, food and medicine supplies, and to attack the few flee routes once they are opened. The aim is to mass kill ukrainian civilians to discourage the country. But, it won't work there because ukrainians seem really focused and determined to resist, fight and even die for their country if necessary.

Backed by the West, Ukraine is strong. Russia is struggling, and Putin is failing his mission. Either he comes to his senses that his resources are not unlimited and he must end the war, or he goes total Z and unleashes the Kraken

 

[Cannuck]

“We all have to do something.”
Yo Yo Ma at Russian embassy

 

[Sutruk]

Backed by the West, Ukraine is strong. Russia is struggling, and Putin is failing his mission. Either he comes to his senses that his resources are not unlimited and he must end the war, or he goes total Z and unleashes the Kraken

Ukraine is backed by almost all the world, but the world right now is just aiding them mostly with sanctions to Russia. Sending anti-tank weapons and firearms too, but that's all. Now trying to send MIG-29 fighter jets to help Ukraine in the air. They are just asking NATO to close the Airspace but that would be putting NATO fighers in Ukraine.

If Ukraine would be really backed by the West, with troops, tanks and Aircraft, there would be no russians in Ukraine right now. Putin can thank his nukes, because if not for them, he would be right now running to the deepest and darkest siberian forest.

 

[oldtimer]

I think he thought he was going to march in and take Ukraine over with basically no losses. It did not happen.

I don't understand the strategy of sending in the poorly trained troops and junky equipment first. I mean is that the strategy or is that mainly what they actually have?

Are we looking at a Wizard of Oz situation, where once the (iron) curtain is pulled back what we see is not as intimidating as what was portrayed?

Brad

Perhaps Russia is keeping its best forces back for when it's going to go after some of the Eastern European Countries and has to confront NATO head on.

When Russia was doing its military exercises on the borders of Ukraine a month ago it was actually testing NATO as it didn't know how NATO might react to the invasion and so step by step it expanded its operations once it became sure that NATO wasn't going to do anything to stop it.

NATO at the time was hesitant to confront Russia in fear of the situation getting escalated further,

But I guess NATO's strategists couldn't realize at the time that sometimes the best way to guarantee peace is to escalate things so that you don't come across as weak and helpless in the eyes of a ruthless aggressor that has ambitions for a lot more than Ukraine.

IMO

 

[mr-x]

You can see it started trending up when Trump was still president. You can also see some dips when COVID was at its peak. Look at the end of 2021/2022 for instance where Omicron was at peak.

3 yr chart. The lowest point was in Dec 2019, Jan 2020. It went up immediately, even with people working form home b/c of Covid and supply chain problems. If you wan't I can post an illustrated version.

2018 slight trend up, then prices lower slowly, drop in 2020, then Biden is elected and confirmed.

The chart also starts at an unfairly low point, during a pandemic. There were times when gas was around $3/gallon on average under Trump in 2018. Pre-pandemic it was about $2.70 (2020).

I posted a 3 year chart. Gas in Oregon was $2.49 a gallon before the pandemic, it's just shy of $5.00 now.

You can't deny that demand is higher outside a pandemic that during a pandemic when people are not moving as much, many companies have been closed.

The pandemic didn't end when Joe took office but prices jumped on speculation Joe was going to wage war on domestic energy.

First thing he did was cancel the Keystone pipeline.

Though, the point about higher gas prices encouraging a path towards renewable energy might have some merit to it. As far as the "renewable" part I had a few recent posts about that.

Currently, many of the renewable energies are not as clean as advertised. It would take time and new breakthroughs in technology to make major strides.

Brad

We agree on that.

 

[Kingslayer]

Putin can thank his nukes, because if not for them, he would be right now running to the deepest and darkest siberian forest.

I agree with that, I don’t think Russia want a war with NATO though. America alone is still far more powerful than Russia and China combined, never mind the whole of NATO.

I don’t like to talk about nukes being used, I don't really like the title of this thread as we are still way from that, I'm just using this thread to talk about what's happening in Ukraine, we was a lot closer nuclear war during the cold war.

But if Russia have did go there with nukes, I think the tactic by NATO would be just to bomb Russia into submission and do it quick and NATO being many countries would be capable of that, it would ‘shock and awe’ on a larger scale, that’s never been seen before, relentless attacks all throughout Russia, hoping Russia surrenders, I can’t see any ground force being used and China would want no part of it.

Either way, Putin’s days are numbered. I predict Russia won’t have nukes in 20 years (or their stockpile reduced lots), be it Putin being ousted and Russia changing its ways due to shame of what they have done to Ukraine (they can’t hide the true story from Russians forever) or worst case disarmed by force.

 

[Cannuck]

3 yr chart. The lowest point was in Dec 2019, Jan 2020. It went up immediately, even with people working form home b/c of Covid and supply chain problems. If you wan't I can post an illustrated version.

2018 slight trend up, then prices lower slowly, drop in 2020, then Biden is elected and confirmed.

Show attachment 211536



I posted a 3 year chart. Gas in Oregon was $2.49 a gallon before the pandemic, it's just shy of $5.00 now.


The pandemic didn't end when Joe took office but prices jumped on speculation Joe was going to wage war on domestic energy.

First thing he did was cancel the Keystone pipeline.

Show attachment 211538



We agree on that.

Crickets in the toilet?

 

[mr-x]

Crickets in the toilet?

 

[oldtimer]

I agree with that, I don’t think Russia want a war with NATO. America alone is still far more powerful than Russia and China combined, never mind the whole of NATO.

I don’t like to talk about nukes being used, I don't really like the title of this thread as we are still way from that, I'm just using this thread to talk about what's happening in Ukraine, we was a lot closer nuclear war during the cold war.

But if Russia have did go there with nukes, I think the tactic by NATO would be just to bomb Russia into submission and do it quick and NATO being many countries would be capable of that, it would ‘shock and awe’ on a larger scale, that’s never been seen before, relentless attacks all throughout Russia, hoping Russia surrenders, I can’t see any ground force being used and China would want no part of it.

Either way, Putin’s days are numbered. I predict Russia won’t have nukes in 20 years (or their stockpile reduced lots), be it Putin being ousted and Russia changing its ways due to shame of what they have done to Ukraine (they can’t hide the true story from Russians forever) or worst case disarmed by force.

The problem is that Russia has the largest number of Nuclear Warheads in the World (around 6000) and the supersonic missiles to deliver them anywhere on the Globe.

IMO

 

[mr-x]

I agree with that, I don’t think Russia want a war with NATO though. America alone is still far more powerful than Russia and China combined, never mind the whole of NATO.

I doubt the USA could overwhelm China the way they deal with outdated military in the middle east. It would be bad and the outcome is not certain.

I don’t like to talk about nukes being used, I don't really like the title of this thread as we are still way from that, I'm just using this thread to talk about what's happening in Ukraine, we was a lot closer nuclear war during the cold war.

But if Russia have did go there with nukes, I think the tactic by NATO would be just to bomb Russia into submission and do it quick and NATO being many countries would be capable of that, it would ‘shock and awe’ on a larger scale, that’s never been seen before, relentless attacks all throughout Russia, hoping Russia surrenders, I can’t see any ground force being used and China would want no part of it.

Either way, Putin’s days are numbered. I predict Russia won’t have nukes in 20 years (or their stockpile reduced lots), be it Putin being ousted and Russia changing its ways due to shame of what they have done to Ukraine (they can’t hide the true story from Russians forever) or worst case disarmed by force.

 

[Cannuck]

Show attachment 211543

This is not a political thread, but now that you mentioned it, I thought Republican's liked the tough stance on Russia. I guess they want their cake and eat it too.

 

[Armageddon]

Relax fellows
No WWIII