analysis World War III

[oldtimer]

I believe that President Biden was right when he said that Russia is going to Invade Ukraine.

Any intelligent person is going to come to the same conclusion knowing that Russia has already decided to pay any price imposed on it by the West through sanctions.

Short of full military confrontation by the West there is nothing that can make Russia to change its mind as they see this as a golden opportunity to resurrect the once powerful superpower that was equal to the USA.

But Russia’s ambitions are not going to stop with taking over Ukraine since it already has made plans to increase its sphere of influence to Asia, Middle East, and South America and perhaps the whole World knowing that the West is most likely not going to do anything beyond just imposing sanctions which ultimately will hurt the West itself by effecting the Global economy in an adverse way the longer that they go on.

I personally don’t like any of the old ideologies, philosophies, and doctrines of Capitalism, Communism, Socialism, Religious Fundamentalism and all the other “ism” that are derived from the bad human characteristics of Greed, Lust, Hate, Cruelty, Jealousy, Prejudice, and lack of Empathy and that have been infringing on our rights in one way or another throughout the history because they can only exist through supporting inequality, oppression, suppression, torture, killing, and War.

When it comes to saving the World the last thing that I want to see is the further expansion of these old systems that have all already proven to be a failure in dealing with the existential problems that are currently facing Humanity and the Environment.

We don’t want all these political, Religious, and Racial parties and groups to resurrect their past, we want something new that can propel the World into the next Era that is based on the Universal Principles and Values that have been derived through Logic and Compassion and not through Force and Violence.

By “We” I mean all the Intelligent, Righteous, and Peace loving people of the World.

IMO

Thread rules: everyone is invited to participate as long as things are kept on topic and are on the constructive, professional, and respectful side (personal attacks and demeaning of others will not be tolerated). Do not overwhelm this thread with memes and if you provide a link to an article you must give a brief explanation as to what it is about so that people know ahead of time what they are clicking on.

 

[SCP Foundation]

russia is trying to create 2 millionth army​

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, russia is preparing for another mobilization and is trying to create an army of two million.

Literally: "During the first wave of mobilization, 300,000 people were drafted into the russian Armed Forces. After a short training, those mobilized are sent to the combat zone in Ukraine.

Military intelligence of Ukraine does not rule out that the leadership of russia will announce another wave of mobilization in the coming days. Another 500,000 russians will enter the russian Armed Forces, which will allow the terrorist country to create strategic reserves.

According to military intelligence, the scale of the mobilization measures carried out by the aggressor country indicates the plans of its leadership to create an army of about 2 million people.

Details: GUR notes that russia is already actively preparing for the announcement of the next wave of mobilization.

In particular, at the legislative level, changes are being made to the laws of the russian federation that regulate mobilization.

Active training of training centers is also underway.

Me too i have a meme

Poor ukrainian civilian from bakhmut was at the wrong time at the wrong place
He will now be drafted
Yes AFU is lacking men so they draft in streets and bars

 

[SCP Foundation]

Again. If somebody has found a guy with a nazi helmet years ago, you can't say that a country is full of nazis, as Putler is saying as an excuse to invade Ukraine.
The only one behaving exactly like Nazis did in 1940 is Putler with his invasion and aggression against a peaceful democracy.

Ukraine is not full of nazis. Majority of ukrainians are not nazi.
Nobody ever said ukraine is full of nazis : if you heard someone say it could you quote him here ?

Also even if nazis are a minority, the things is that since the beginning of 2014 civil war, many ukrainian militias were formed with support from ukrainian givernment to fight alongside the army in Donbass, and many of these militias have neo-nazi and far-right elements in them.

In fact, many of the militias formed to help the army have a lot of neo-nazis among their members (don't expect leftists to massively join these militias).
But again, I am sure they make only a small part of the total ukrainian population.

Even the BBC (in case you don't know, it's a british news agency) made an investigation about the issue of neo-nazism in ukraine.
Here you can see it :

 

[SCP Foundation]

Ukrainian fighters are trying to hold defence in Soledar​

The night in Soledar in Donetsk Oblast was difficult, but Ukrainian defenders are trying to hold the defence, and the battles continue.

Source: Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defence, on Telegram

Quote: "The night in Soledar was hot, and battles continued. The enemy has deployed almost all its main forces on the Donetsk front and keeps the intensity of the offensive high."

Details: At the same time, the deputy minister has said that the Ukrainian defenders are "bravely trying to hold the defence".

Maliar has noted that "this is a difficult stage of the war", but Ukraine will undoubtedly win.

The town of Soledar, right now, filmed by a Wagner drone

 

[SCP Foundation]

Not only has the Russian military released convicts from prison to fight in Ukraine, but they have also compiled a list of Russian schoolchildren to be drafted when they come of age... reminiscent of Hitler much?

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-list-children-ukraine-war-donbas

That is, of course, after they and their parents have been thoroughly indoctrinated by propoganda.

https://tass.ru/obschestvo

What Russia’s schoolchildren are being taught about Ukraine​

No effort has been spared in enlisting schoolteachers to teach ‘history,’ according to President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-school-children-teacher-ukraine-history/

I think you don't live in a country with military service.
Compiling lists of school childrens so they be drafted for military service when they come of age is something done in all countries with compulsory military service.

In Morocco there is compulsory military service, and kids are registered while at school so they later, when they are 18, could recieve a notice calling them to do their military service. And it's a problem for nobody, because people see those teens as they are serving their country. And that school pre-enlistment is to avoid fathers to bring kids by themselves so they can get listed, as many live in rural areas.

Even in France, where there is no compulsory military service anymore, they kept that tradition of every civilian aged 16 to go register himself in the town hall's lists se he would later be called for the "Journée Défense et Citoyenneté" (Defense and Citizenship Day), which is compulsory and now replaces military service. Guess what, that "JDC" is organised in schools, where military men come to present the army and explain republican values to those teens.


I can give you many other exemples, and you can also search them on Google, or maybe ask ChatGPT XD

 

[SCP Foundation]

Not only has the Russian military released convicts from prison to fight in Ukraine, but they have also compiled a list of Russian schoolchildren to be drafted when they come of age... reminiscent of Hitler much?

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-list-children-ukraine-war-donbas

That is, of course, after they and their parents have been thoroughly indoctrinated by propoganda.

https://tass.ru/obschestvo

What Russia’s schoolchildren are being taught about Ukraine​

No effort has been spared in enlisting schoolteachers to teach ‘history,’ according to President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-school-children-teacher-ukraine-history/

And about russian children being taught pro-russian things about Ukraine, i mean, what were you expecting ?

In a country at war, there is always propaganda, and children are never spared from it.

For a long time in France, war crimes comitted in Algeria were not mentionned in school books, and they recently started to get mentionned and studied.

Same thing for both Koreas, who denied their respective war crimes and accused each other (and keep doing it) in schools.

After WWII, in both West and East Germany, war crimes comitted by both US and Soviet troops. It was until the late XX century these crimes started being studied, of course, alongside the nazi german crimes.

 

[Cannuck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613994196066762757

 

[Cannuck]

Compiling lists of school childrens so they be drafted for military service when they come of age is something done in all countries with compulsory military service.

In Morocco there is compulsory military service, and kids are registered while at school so they later, when they are 18, could recieve a notice calling them to do their military service. And it's a problem for nobody...

It's a big problem for those who do not wish to join the military. Under international human rights law and standards, states with compulsory military service are obliged to provide civilian alternatives.

Same thing for both Koreas, who denied their respective war crimes and accused each other (and keep doing it) in schools.

Conscientious objectors in South Korea will continue to be punished and stigmatized for refusing military service under a new alternative service law that was adopted by the country’s parliament.

Under the new law, those refusing military service on religious or other grounds will be required to work in a jail or other correctional facility for three years. Previously, they would have been jailed for 18 months.

Landmark rulings by the Supreme Court and Constitutional Court in 2018 in effect recognized the right to conscientious objection in the country.

“South Korean conscientious objectors were promised a genuine alternative service. Instead they are confronted with little more than an alternative punishment,” said Arnold Fang, Amnesty International’s East Asia Researcher.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/p...s-new-punishment-for-conscientious-objectors/

 

[SCP Foundation]

Conscientious objectors in South Korea will continue to be punished and stigmatized for refusing military service under a new alternative service law that was adopted by the country’s parliament.

Under the new law, those refusing military service on religious or other grounds will be required to work in a jail or other correctional facility for three years. Previously, they would have been jailed for 18 months.

Landmark rulings by the Supreme Court and Constitutional Court in 2018 in effect recognized the right to conscientious objection in the country.

“South Korean conscientious objectors were promised a genuine alternative service. Instead they are confronted with little more than an alternative punishment,” said Arnold Fang, Amnesty International’s East Asia Researcher.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/p...s-new-punishment-for-conscientious-objectors/

Thank you for this interesting information I didn't know about it.
But when I mentionned Korea I was talking about the fact both of them made war crimes during the Korean War, but each one keeps blaming the other for them : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Korean_War_crimes

 

[Cannuck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613994196066762757

Ukraine to receive UK Challenger tanks...

Poland plans to send a company of its German-made Leopard tanks, France declared it would send AMX-10 RC armored vehicles, US to send Bradley tanks and Stryker Armored Vehicles, Germany will provide 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

https://www.newsweek.com/leopard-2-tanks-ukraine-germany-poland-challenger-2-abrams

Meanwhile,

Russia Warns That West Sending Ukraine Tanks Will Only 'Prolong' Suffering​

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-warns-that-west-sending-ukraine-tanks-will-only-prolong-suffering

Putin is going to the prisons, to the homeless shelters and taking people in their 50s and 60s, drafting more Russians and sending them into the meat grinder after only a few weeks of training.

 

[Cannuck]

Russia Warns That West Sending Ukraine Tanks Will Only 'Prolong' Suffering

Finland is also ready to provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 battle tanks if Europe gives it the green light... USA and Germany to supply Ukraine with Raytheon MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air defensive missile systems, while Canada will purchase new NASAMS system from the USA and then donate the equipment to Ukraine for added protection against imminent Russian aggression.

 

[Cannuck]

After 11 months and many thousands killed; war crimes comitted on civilians populations; millions displaced and the humanitarian crises that have ensued...

Could Biden Have Stopped Russia From Invading Ukraine?​

In hindsight, NATO had many options to deter Russia’s aggression or cushion its impact on Ukraine.

The United States will conduct an after-action report highlighting the successes and failures of its response to Russia’s invasion. The after-action report will enumerate ways the U.S. response was strong, while highlighting lackluster prevention measures aimed at deterring Russia’s decision to attack.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-biden-have-stopped-russia-invading-ukraine

 

[Sutruk]

Russia Warns That West Sending Ukraine Tanks Will Only 'Prolong' Suffering

Putler hoped to invade Ukraine while being applauded by Ukrainian people. But his mistake was that Ukrainians are already free people living in a free democracy. They are fighting so hard because they don't want to come back to live under a dictatorship and be ruled by a tyrant. They don't want to live under a terror system.

So, the only thing that "prolongs" suffering is the presence of Putler's terrorists in Ukraine soil.

In Putler's mind, he wants to invade Ukraine and be applauded by Ukrainians for it (and on the way, kill, torture and rape any Ukrainian standing or talking against Putler). So, in Putler's mind, if Ukrainians fight, for their right of self defence and their right to exist as a free country and as free people, it will be Ukrainians fault.

 

[Sutruk]

Invading a peaceful democracy, bombing civilian buildings and killing innocent people on a daily basis, for the sake of terror. This is what Putler's terrorists are doing right now in Ukraine for almost a year.

"Eternal memory to all whose lives were taken by

terror! The world must stop evil. Debris clearance in Dnipro continues. All services are working. We're fighting for every person, every life. We'll find everyone involved in terror. Everyone will bear responsibility. Utmost."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614297489565155335

 

[Cannuck]

Ukraine is also counting the toll of war on its wildlife

At least 700 Black Sea dolphins are known to have died, victims of acoustic trauma caused by sonar equipment on Russian submarines, and mines. This figure is likely to be an underestimate, with the reality being closer to several thousand, according to environment minister Ruslan Strilets.

“We are afraid to even imagine the scale of the tragedy after the occupation of our territory and seas..."

It is reported that the cost of pollution has so far been estimated at €37.8 billion in total, including €11.9 billion for soil pollution.

The Ukrainian government wants Russia to pay compensation for damages it has caused, including to the environment.

https://theecologist.org/2023/jan/12/ukraine-war-killing-wildlife

 

[SCP Foundation]

Map of the current situation in the area of Bakhmut as of 14 JAN 2023 :
https://s2.cdnstatic.space/wp-conte..._Eastern_Ukraine_Slavyansk_Kramatorsk_map.jpg

 

[SCP Foundation]

Australian TV star accused of stealing millions after joining Ukrainain Foreign Legion

According to The Mail, senior ukrainian officers accuse Emese Fajk of stealing funds and supplies from the legion.
She is also accused by ukrainian soldiers of running scams to support war efforts while she was director of communication.
"The legion until recently had two fundraising organisations set up to receive donations used to help fund its operations, both set up by Fajk and her former boss Damien Magrou.
Civil Front, based in Norway, and the legion charitable fund were solely controlled by Fajk and legionnaires complained of a lack of transparency.
The dossier alleged Fajk was caught on secret recording admitting she 'routinely utilised the funds in this account for personal profit'."



The article then ends up talking about the Foreign Legion of Ukraine :
"The International Legion of Defense of Ukraine was set up by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy three days after the invasion began.

The legion is somewhat controversial as many countries, including Australia, either ban or heavily discourage their citizens from fighting in foreign conflicts.

Ukraine said it would give citizenship to overseas fighters who had theirs stripped by their home country as a result of joining up.

The legion in April paused recruitment of foreign volunteers as so many signed up, at least 16,000 in the first two weeks of the invasion, many with no military experience.

Recruits have since faced much tougher requirements, to the point where Fajk would likely have been rejected if she applied just days later than she did.

Tales from the front lines tells of poorly trained and often undisciplined foreign recruits buckling at the horrors of war, and fleeing home within a few weeks claiming they felt like 'cannon fodder'."



Read more here : https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-Fajk-accused-ripping-Ukraine-war-effort.html

 

[SCP Foundation]

Finland is also ready to provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 battle tanks if Europe gives it the green light... USA and Germany to supply Ukraine with Raytheon MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air defensive missile systems, while Canada will purchase new NASAMS system from the USA and then donate the equipment to Ukraine for added protection against imminent Russian aggression.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-finland-tanks-idUSL8N3412OS

Niinisto said they could give a "small" number of tanks if other european countries do the same
They are not waiting for any sort of approval from the EU.

Also Finland have only about 200 Leopard II tanks, which means they may be giving 10 or 20 as a "small" number.
Considering Ukraine have already more than 6500 tanks, I don't even think the ukrainians are too enthusiatic about this.

 

[Cannuck]

Also Finland have only about 200 Leopard II tanks, which means they may be giving 10 or 20 as a "small" number.
Considering Ukraine have already more than 6500 tanks, I don't even think the ukrainians are too enthusiatic about this.

Finland is on the front lines, they cannot spare more. Russia has always relied on sheer numbers in their conquests and repeatedly underestimates the resolve of their assailed. If five nations were to provide 20 Leopard tanks, 100 would be enough for a breakthrough... quality, not quantity.

 

[SCP Foundation]

Finland is on the front lines, they cannot spare more. Russia has always relied on sheer numbers in their conquests and repeatedly underestimates the resolve of their assailed. If five nations were to provide 20 Leopard tanks, 100 would be enough for a breakthrough... quality, not quantity.

Ukraine already have 6500 tanks
I don't think providing them with 100 more would change a lot of things

Also Leopard II tanks were conceived in the 70s, while the T-84 (a urainian main battle tank) is from 1999, so it's more recent and surely more adapted to modern fights. So I don't think the quality of Leopard II is way above that of the ukrainian T-84

 

[Cannuck]

Ukraine already have 6500 tanks
I don't think providing them with 100 more would change a lot of things

Also Leopard II tanks were conceived in the 70s, while the T-84 (a urainian main battle tank) is from 1999, so it's more recent and surely more adapted to modern fights. So I don't think the quality of Leopard II is way above that of the ukrainian T-84

I doubt that Ukraine has 6500 main battle tanks.

Russia entered the war with 1300 battle tanks (T80), Ukraine 1000 (T80's converted to T84 Oplot M). Following heavy losses, Ukraine has recovered many of the former Russian tanks and converted them.

NATO apparently has around 2300 Leopard tanks with an additional 300 in storage in various European countries; however, they first require permission from the German Chancellor to export to Ukraine - a decision that will likely be made this week. Experts predict that Ukraine needs but 100 Leopard tanks to bust thru and/or hold back the Russian offensive.

 

[SCP Foundation]

I doubt that Ukraine has 6500 main battle tanks.

Russia entered the war with 1300 battle tanks (T80), Ukraine 1000 (T80's converted to T84 Oplot M). Following heavy losses, Ukraine has recovered many of the former Russian tanks and converted them.

NATO apparently has around 2300 Leopard tanks with an additional 300 in storage in various European countries; however, they first require permission from the German Chancellor to export to Ukraine - a decision that will likely be made this week. Experts predict that Ukraine needs but 100 Leopard tanks to bust thru and/or hold back the Russian offensive.

At the beginning of the invasion Russia mobilised initially about 3417 tanks, according to Kyiv Post, quoting a report of the International Institute of Strategic Studies.
Considering Russians have a total of 12000 tanks, the amount of Russian tanks captured by Ukraine (about 500) is not negligeable but relatively low.

And for the ukrainian tanks, I searched again and apparently Google gets it wrong here. It makes people into think Ukraine have 6500 tanks but that number is the number from 1992.
The updated number is 1890 according to Global Fire Power (https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=ukraine) and I think it's a pre-war number

 

[NameInbox]

I doubt that Ukraine has 6500 main battle tanks.

Russia entered the war with 1300 battle tanks (T80), Ukraine 1000 (T80's converted to T84 Oplot M). Following heavy losses, Ukraine has recovered many of the former Russian tanks and converted them.

NATO apparently has around 2300 Leopard tanks with an additional 300 in storage in various European countries; however, they first require permission from the German Chancellor to export to Ukraine - a decision that will likely be made this week. Experts predict that Ukraine needs but 100 Leopard tanks to bust thru and/or hold back the Russian offensive.

Agree with @Cannuck on 200%
There are a lot fakes news around, be aware.

 

[SCP Foundation]

I doubt that Ukraine has 6500 main battle tanks.

Russia entered the war with 1300 battle tanks (T80), Ukraine 1000 (T80's converted to T84 Oplot M). Following heavy losses, Ukraine has recovered many of the former Russian tanks and converted them.

NATO apparently has around 2300 Leopard tanks with an additional 300 in storage in various European countries; however, they first require permission from the German Chancellor to export to Ukraine - a decision that will likely be made this week. Experts predict that Ukraine needs but 100 Leopard tanks to bust thru and/or hold back the Russian offensive.

And also i think germany won't give any Leopard II by themselves, as they say they are not able to produce them before 2024 : https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukr...ible-this-year-says-german-arms-maker/2788137

So yeah ukrainians will rely on donations from other countries

But it may also cause problems to ukrainian army as Leopard tanks are far away from the soviet models used by Ukraine. They would need completely new formations and different maintenance parts and methods, whuch may turn ukrainian logistics into a mess.


Also, to quote Breaking Defense :

" That considered, underfunding by the Bundeswehr and different standards among export customers mean that many Leopards lack the protection, weapon, and electronics upgrades of the latest version, the A7+.
Fielding the Leopard through a common logistics supply chain appears to be feasible because of how many European operators use the tanks, but a number of drawbacks include their size as they are considered relatively easy to spot from distance, require more fuel, and need a crew of four, one more than the T-72. Perhaps most problematic of all, at 55-plus metric tons, they are too heavy to safely cross many Ukrainian bridges.
In 2015, Ukrainian transportation authorities banned vehicles over 44 metric tons (49 US tons) citing potential damage to bridges and highways, an issue that could prove troublesome in terms of leading to excessive training for Ukrainian tank crews, commanders, staff planning, supply units, and maintenance on the Leopard 2, once deliveries have been made.
"
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/01...nding-leopard-2-and-other-nations-may-follow/

 

[SCP Foundation]

Agree with @Cannuck on 200%
There are a lot fakes news around, be aware.

I was amazed that google itself shows the number of 6500 big like it's the true one when you ask how many tanks are in the ukrainian army.
But when you click on it and read the Wikipedia page with the context you see that 6500 was the number of ukrainian tanks in 1992

Let's all hope ChatGPT corrects that XD

 

[NameInbox]

russia is trying to start a war in the Balkans.

There are two such "hot" spots:
- Kosovo, where there are protests for license plates, for the imprisonment of a Serb, etc.;
- Bosnia, where Serbs live in the pro-Serbian region. They want to join Serbia and are supporters of Russia.
at the same time, the private army "wagner" is recruiting Serbs for the war in Ukraine!
https://24tv.ua/rosiya-namagayetsya-rozvyazati-viynu-balkanah-yaki-garyachi-tochki_n2238860

also Last news

russia wants to create an army to fight big wars - ISW experts
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-17-2023

Interior Ministry leadership killed in helicopter
https://en.lb.ua/news/2023/01/18/18869_children_interior_ministry.html