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Virus Recession - Has your position changed?

Labeled as discuss in The Break Room, started by Internet.Domains, Mar 12, 2020

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Virus Recession - Has your position recently changed?

  1. Yes

    17 vote(s)
    40.5%
  2. No

    18 vote(s)
    42.9%
  3. Maybe

    7 vote(s)
    16.7%
Total: 42 vote(s)
  1. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Contributor VIP

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    Coronavirus and the recession that is in play is not new talk. There has been talk about it for a few months now. Some people, early on, were pointing to a pandemic and severe recession, while others carried on without much thought on it. Many thought it would just wither away.

    Changes are happening fast. Very fast. Pro sports is in limbo. Movie production sets are cancelled. Kids sports marked off the calendars. Store shelves empty. Vacations crossed off. Everything disrupted.

    Has your position changed? Is the virus more severe than you first imagined? Is the economy at risk for a severe collapse? Are our domain investments losing more ground as the markets plunge?

    It seems at this particular time there is no safe haven, economically. Gold, stocks, crypto and real estate all seem to be hit. The usual 'store of value' during recessions is not playing out as expected. Could domains be that magic 'store if value' so desperately needed?
     
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  2. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    The entire economy will be effected. Domains will not be immune.

    Stocks, bitcoin, gold, etc. Everything is going down.
    Travel, Tourism, Transportation will be the hardest hit then manufacturing, retail, etc.

    The entire chain is going to have issues.

    People will lose their jobs. This will get a lot worse before it gets better.

    Real Estate is going to get hit at some point.

    Even super safe investments like bond funds are not doing that great. People are just scared to do anything right now.

    Brad
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
  3. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    This is very serious for a number of reasons from the mortality rate, ease of spreading, no vaccine, etc.

    The people who initially dismissed this as a "hoax" or like the normal flu really should have listened to the actual qualified experts in the field.

    The US is also far behind the rest of the world when it comes to testing, so the actual numbers here are still a huge unknown.

    Brad
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
  4. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Contributor VIP

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    The qualified experts were the ones down playing the severity. We are behind the issue as a result.
     
  5. Cannuck

    Cannuck 420friendly.company

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    We still don't know all the facts, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure as they say
     
  6. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Some people are still in denial about the severity, despite all the evidence to the contrary.

    I don't think the crash would be nearly as severe if the government leadership was seen as more competent.
    It is major reason the crash has been this bad.

    Brad
     
  7. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I will say people need to treat this as a health crisis, not just a financial crisis.

    If the health risk is mitigated, then the economy will naturally rebound over time.

    Until that happens no amount of bailouts, tax cuts, low interest rates, or other financial measures is going to do very much to help.

    Brad
     
  8. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Contributor VIP

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    Yes, the financial aspect can comeback and rally. This is a health crisis first and foremost.
     
  9. cbd

    cbd Upgraded Member Gold Account

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    Voted "No", because it's been pretty clear for over a month that domains are being very much affected (and will continue to be for a long time) by this massive, worldwide crisis.
     
  10. Bob Hawkes

    Bob Hawkes formerly MetBob NameTalent VIP Gold Account Trusted Blogger

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    Health wise the experts seem pretty consistent that this will get far worse before it gets better. It is encouraging that some countries, such as Korea, have managed to do a good job controlling it, and that new cases in China are way down. Certain populations, like the elderly (yes, that is me) are at most risk.

    Health wise an interesting view is that with all of the new attention on personal hygiene and avoiding community spread to the degree possible, will we see carry over so some other things, like seasonal flu, will be less serious.

    I think certain sectors, as @bmugford notes above, will be particularly hard hit.

    The unrealistically low interest rates in better times have left rather little room for monetary policy response to have much impact. The near zero interest rate environment means that bonds and fixed investments offer very little return on investment, and the stock markets if this continues much longer will lose the previous gains of an extended period. Those who depend on investment income will be particularly hard hit, no matter the amount of diversification.

    There may be niches that will do better, both in domains and in business, more down than up.

    Even normally optimistic me, I am feeling a little overwhelmed.

    Bob
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
  11. Samer

    Samer Top Contributor VIP

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    Only change is to buy more stocks

    but DJIA is down over 2000 as of now :dead:

    Jesus
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
  12. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Yeah, that is a major issue. When you have a booming economy interests rate are supposed to move up.
    Instead they stayed artificially low. That really limits the ammunition you have now to help.

    Brad
     
  13. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    People will have plenty of buying opportunities. This is not going away anytime soon.
    Trying to call a bottom is like trying to catch a falling knife.

    I would personally not really be interested in stocks until the massive swings one way or the other stop and the movement is more stable.

    Brad
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
  14. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Contributor VIP

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    Part of the issue is the information from the Chinese government was wrong from the beginning. I am not sure the numbers and related information, from the Chinese government, can be trusted as accurate.

    As an example the other countries that are experiencing large issues are describing much different traits of the virus than the government of China described. Death rate and severity of symptoms is much worse than the Chinese government reported.
     
  15. frank-germany

    frank-germany domainer since 2001 / musician VIP

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    1) more than half of the infected have been cured already
    2) 6% of the solved cases have died mostly plus 60 years old
    3) stocks of some tiny biotechs are having like 50% 60% 90% and more 498% intradays
     
  16. Sutruk

    Sutruk Established Member

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    This virus is going to hit the world like a bad hammer. No effective medicines for it, no vaccine, 14 days of stealthy growth but with infection potential. People infected already with the virus, without or few simptoms, but spreading it like a fan. Fast and exponential spread. The human body is not used to this new virus, and it will need time to develope defenses against it.
    In resume, the world should advance the summer holidays and close everything for 30 days.
     
  17. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Contributor VIP

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    In California they are recommending staying away from crowds, particularly crowds of more than 1000 people. I have to admit, I had mixed emotions dropping the kids off at a school with much more than 1000 students.
     
  18. Sutruk

    Sutruk Established Member

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    Look at Italy to see the protocol to stop the virus spread. They have closed literally everything, except supermarkets and farmacies.
    The kids are quite safe with this virus, but they have the potential to spread it like a fan.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
  19. bmugford

    bmugford www.DataCube.com PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I am surprised most schools are not closed at this point. Kids are germ factories.

    While the coronavirus doesn't really seem to be showing major symptoms in kids, there is much speculation they are carriers. There is just no reason to test if you don't show symptoms.

    The big risk there is spreading to others, especially in high risk groups.

    Brad
     
  20. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Contributor VIP

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    Yes, seems crazy and backwards. As you said, kids are germ factories. They don't take the precautions some adults might. The risk for spreading disease in school is very high.
     
  21. DigitalRoar

    DigitalRoar Established Member

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    We're pretty much in the start of a recession,
     
  22. Cannuck

    Cannuck 420friendly.company

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    Nature has fallen out of balance. It takes the will of each individual to take action to make a positive change. We rely on the global network for almost everything. Catastrophic shifts are cyclic, meta-Malthusian. It will get worse before it gets better, and then it will happen again, ie. global warming. How will world leaders & population respond? Will they/we be pro-active and prepare, be passive and do nothing, or be unprepared and over-react? The information is out there, search and ye shall find, but much has been supressed by the powers that be. For instance, schools ought to install U/V lights for after hours disinfecting. That's my take.
     
  23. Pay.My.id

    Pay.My.id Established Member

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    Agree with your awesome analyse
     
  24. Cannuck

    Cannuck 420friendly.company

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    US not far from the very real possibility of martial law.

    Spreading fear and panic will allow the US president to declare martial law, giving him special powers...he can even seize the Internet!

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/01/presidential-emergency-powers/576418/
     
  25. Internet.Domains

    Internet.Domains Top Contributor VIP

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