report Significantly Increased Auction Activity

[Ategy]

Wow .. I'm actually having a frustrating day at auction .. just about all the domains I'm watching (just about all the best on my personal list and quite a few from my shared public list are getting far above average number of bids and well above average prices.

Usually on my days off I manage to snag a few cheap .. and even turn down some really good ones .. it's almost as if instead of just one heavyweight (like HugeDomains) competing with the rest of us .. that there are now two heavy hitters battling it out for everything barely even leaving any scraps for the rest of us.

To the point where names of the type/quality I was getting at at $17, $12 or even closeout are hitting three figures .. and domains I'd grab mid-high $xx are hitting $250++ and up.

While this certainly sucks for auction buyers in the short term .. if it keeps up .. it could mean significantly better wholesale prices in the long term .. which could be either good or bad for domainers depending on the particulars of their portfolio.

I did notice patterns like this last year .. wish I tracked it better. Before the day even started and most bids began, I did notice it certainly was a big day in terms of number of good names .. maybe that was part of it?

Curious if I'm the only one seeing this?

 

[wwwweb]

Although I agree with most of what you said in your post. But I disagree with this part. Bots are bots. They don't have any attitude. Also if we will never profit from winning it, it's unlikely that they won't profit from it if they won the domain either. That doesn't make any sense.

These bots are programmed with a top price in mind. Which they use the same price for all the domains. They might have a tiered structure depending on the domain value. They might, although I suspect not, have some human intervention, as prices in the auction rise. But that probably doesn't make them bots, but apps.

Your totally right, it's just Huge Domains have finally got the bots to the point where their formula is starting to work, and they may have missed a few from time to time, and left some crumbs, more and more are noticing the crumbs are up for bid also.

I dealt with namejet today 2 weeks after, they were unable to deliver a name that was sitting at godaddy, no idea why they don't get those names under their roof before they let them into auction.

If you want to play on dropcatch you better clear some room on your credit card limits.

I been doing in this auction game for many years, and I have a healthy spending budget, but even I am starting to take a step back, and say wait a minute, I have to outlay to much, to get to little back, not working.

Wow off topic just saw bitcoin go under $6500

 

[Arca]

Average names that sold above $100 at GD over the past two days is about 150. Normal average prior to these bots maxing each other out was about 75/day. So far the volume seems to roughly have doubled starting from Feb 4.

 

[Arca]

I’m sure there are regular human domain watchers that once they place that back order on the domain at 6 minutes, they spring into action bidding, and outbidding against the bots, who are just processing these min bids all day hoping to keep sniping human distraction. Unlike bots we take calls, lose focus, or can’t rebid, huge advantage here in that sense.

There is not much you can do to change your style of bidding here, the only solution is you must pay more.

Effectively if we can figure out the bot programming we can tax the bots also in our human ways, as a joint force, and maybe make the bot owners change their strategies to less
liberal means.

It seems that one bot is set to bid on anything that gets 2 x bids. I saw many of these $10 HD bids (bidder 1) nearly closed, I then placed a bid (bidder 2), and a bidder 3 came in hard every time and the auction turned into a bidding war between 1 and 3. Additional bidders often join in, but this particular pattern with 1 opening and 3 being auto "triggered" by bidder 2, and then going at, it was repeated for a bunch of auctions for low quality names that would normally not get much bidding attention at all, so that was pretty notable compared with how these names normally proceed through the pre-release (most would likely have closed with zero bids had it not been for that $10 opening bid by HugeDomains).

I don't know at what prices these bots are maxed out at. It's a bit risky to figure it out as most of these are low quality names. I did bit up to $XXX on every single name I bid on yesterday even though many of them were certainly not worth that, but nothing I bid on closed below $XXX, so I feel that you can drive the price up to at least $XXX on every name these bots are going after.

 

[Arca]

Every single domain I've followed so far today have gotten a $10 bid at about 5:50, and at least in the past, large scale usage of $10 bids returned HugeDomains in the WHOIS after the auction completed. I also tracked some very low quality domains with valuations above $1500 by GD and they all got $10 bids towards the end. Haven't seen anything decent close without bids and go to closeouts.

Also, that $10 bidder, presumably still HugeDomains, seem to have changed their strategy to bid in $10 increments today rather than use high proxy bids. So if you bid $50, they place a $10 proxy bid, outbid you leaving current bid at $55, and when you place another bid at $60 they by default outbid you at $60 (i.e. you both have a $60 bid, leading to their earlier bid to "win" with both bidders at $60). So basically they will by default outbid you at the same amount as you bid on every other counter-bid if you make the normal $5 bid increments. Went back and forth with them up to $XXX on several domains in this way already today...

 

[wwwweb]

GoDaddy is very hit or miss. I see domains go for much cheaper than they should sometimes. Works out frequently.

Occasionally we run up against another party. However, I still think that many of the domains go for less than they are worth.

Just be thankful for the cheap days.

Please show some examples, as I am seeing the opposite, but maybe we see difference of opinions of valuations in regards to wholesale, and retail.

 

[Name Trader]

Something that came to mind when reading some of this thread. GoDaddy had the intention, to basically go after the expiring domains market, when they recruited all these other registrars to their auction platform to sell their expiring domains thru the GoDaddy platform. Lets face it. This was an intentional act by GoDaddy to try to sow up the expiring domains market. Which they pretty much had control of anyway, just by auctioning off their own inventory. They have had a lot of teething problems with this along the way. Including the other registrars allowing the domain owners to renew their domain even whilst they are under auction at GoDaddy. I blame GoDaddy mostly for this. Trying to woo these registrars to the table, by saying, they could keep their own ToS. When you should have said, your ToS, needs to be revised to the same rules that GoDaddy uses. But as I say, these are/were just teething problems.

So. GoDaddy now have the biggest market share in terms of domain registrations, and expiring domains. OK. There's still 2 big competitors in the expiring domains market, SnapNames and NameJet. I don't see them buying either of them. But I do see them, at some time in the future, cooperating with them. Which would probably be beneficial to all parties.

GoDaddy's participation in the deleted domain market, is shamefully pitiful. You can buy a deleted domain at GoDaddy by handreg before they can capture the domain by a GoDaddy Backorder. That IS pitiful. Who are their competitors in this expiring domains market? both SnapNames and NameJet, and DropCatch (ie Huge Domains). So I will predict, that at sometime, GoDaddy will make a play for the domain drop catch market. The normal way GoDaddy has launched into these markets, has been by internally developing it's systems. Which are incredibly slow to come to fruition. It's probably safe to say, this would be a lot cheaper than buying SnapName, Namejet, and/or DropCatch/Huge Domains. Beat them into submission before you buy, seems to be the tactics they normally have used. So this could be a long way off. Far enough off, that nobody will remember this prediction

 

[Scot Thomas]

lol .. yup .. I agree .. as I didn't end up buying any at auction today (grabbed a couple of closeouts though) .. but that wasn't really my point .. just surprised to see what seems to be a very noticeably drastic increase in auction end prices, and in overall activity in general.

Agree completely. Curious to see how it shakes out

 

[Arca]

You are correct ...
...BUT...
If you now have more money (or thinking you do) it changes how far you may bid.
And for some it is a matter of bidding at all. Hence the competition.

I will remind all that income tax 'returns' (in the US) also are a factor this time of year.

The price increases since yesterday have largely been driven by automated bot bids. These bots don't "feel" rich, so this is likely not the main driving factor behind these recent price increases.

 

[VRdommy]

The price increases since yesterday have largely been driven by automated bot bids. These bots don't "feel" rich, so this is likely not the main driving factor behind these recent price increases.

Pretty steep accusation. Any proof ?

Edit
If it is a bot, it will be won by the bot based on the programmers settings. Someone will own the name. Bot or not.
But if you don't like the game, don't play. They will change the rules to make you comfortable.
As long as there are those that play... it continues.

 

[VRdommy]

Could you provide some evidence to back up your claim that prices are up because bidders "feel" rich. What are you basing this on?

Look it up. (The Wealth Effect) It has been studied for many years and is well known in investment circles.

The simple fact remains even if there are 'bots' out there bidding on names, you should only be bidding on valuations of what you feel it is worth to you /OR/ where you can make a profit.
Names will never bring more than someone feels they are worth. You can always question their accuracy.
Why do folks get upset when others feel they are worth more than they do or they can profit at that level.

I do get tired of hearing the bot story from those who will not pay what others find profitable.
You will find plenty of smelly fish when fishing at the bottom. Hold your nose.

 

[wwwweb]

That's what I would be doing if I had that access. Set up a great algorithm to to all sort of wild and creative bidding .. but more importantly combining that with human steering. Basically the human sees a new bid pop up on a domain that had no bids .. and has at least 5 minutes to plus that new domain into their system. I actually wouldn't even mind going up against bots (with equal information access) ... but combine a live person with a bot/app and you can really do amazing.

I agree, could be some human intervention in there also, given the business they do to hire someone to sit there, and monitor for a few hours a day wouldn't be much of a cost. But I noticed the bots got a lot sharper when the appraisals came into play.

A year ago they were play a system where it they saw a bidding war happening within 5 minutes they would put a $98, or $102 bid in place, I can't remember, but something in that range, and that is what they were willing to pay. Many may remember this frustration when trying to get a chance domain, and having to pay $100 for it. At this point they are blanketing anything with an decent appraisal, and could be a set time long experiment for all we know, but Ategy who is a value buyer started noticing some attention to the type of names he is from time to time easily able to sneak under the rader, but everything is getting scanned with a fine tooth comb now.

 

[Ategy]

... At this point they are blanketing anything with an decent appraisal (1), and could be a set time long experiment for all we know, but Ategy who is a value buyer started noticing some attention to the type of names he is from time to time easily able to sneak under the rader, but everything is getting scanned (2) with a fine tooth comb now.

Two things there ..

1) While any automated appraisal system could never possibly be considered reliable in any way, I have to credit GoDaddy's appraisals for getting SIGNIFICANTLY better since they first launched it. I've noticed they are on at least the 3rd generation over the last few months .. 1st gen it scored 1/10 (minimum $1000) .. 2nd gen 3/10 (min $500).. 3rd gen possibly 5-6/10 (min $100) .. there might have been a few steps in between .. and let me be clear it's not "good" .. but definitely vastly "better" .. meaning much better than the absolute garbage it was when it launched. This might be one part of the puzzle.

2) That is my only true huge concern. Do APIs have the ability to access the new "Watchers" datafield. Which would let the human being sitting behind the app/bot cherry pick scan just watched domains .. sure it would still be a lot .. BUT .. vastly less work than needing to plow through all domains like I need to one by one (I don't actually search nearly 50k domains a day .. but you know what I mean .. lol).

I really want to know EXACTLY every data field available to API/bot users.

I dealt with namejet today 2 weeks after, they were unable to deliver a name that was sitting at godaddy, no idea why they don't get those names under their roof before they let them into auction.

I thought domains had to be at one of their sponsored registrars in order to be sold there?

 

[Ategy]

In terms of auction pricing .. I think too much is being read into conspiracy theories so to speak .. lol .. aside from my concerns about what data bots have access to, the large jump in prices isn't that all that surprising.

If you think about the only real change is the addition of a new big player (@Frank.Schilling 's Uniregistry maybe? Or others some have mentioned) .. here's why I think that ...

We all know that Huge Domains is buying a ton of names .. but because there was no monster counterpart player bidding against them .. they kept snagging a large bulk of names super cheap. Sure the rest of us human domainers bit up a good portion of them to some degree, but still far from everything.

Enter a new big player / bot to the game. Now they are playing off of each other. What Huge domains used to get with one bid now triggers the new player to bid as well .. and where in the past Huge Domains got a name for $12-$50 that they were prepared to spend $500 .. now because of a single other player .. most of their domains get driven way up.

Realistically when there is only one player in the game prices are just rock bottom .. and all it takes is one major player and every domain get challenged and driven up (theoretically to what they should have sold for).

With 2+ bots playing against each other we're going to see a lot more patterns .. it actually perfectly understandable and expected .. almost definitely not some big conspiracy.

The important thing to remember is as has been said above .. just don't bid beyond what a domain is worth. But there is one fact that sucks .. and that under the current conditions it's going to be significantly harder to find those great domains that used to slip through the cracks. I grabbed a huge number of solid domains at or just above closeout last year .. I admit I took it for granted and am upset at the situation .. lol .. but in reality instead of being mad .. I should be grateful for being able to benefit from those good times over the last few months!


Who knows .. maybe this is a short term buying spree and it'll revert back shortly. I'm actually having deja-vu with this thread as I'm quite sure I started one like this at some point last year! lol .. and having new capital in wholesale auctions isn't even a bad thing .. it's actually a sign of good health in the domain markets .. and more importantly .. gives us as domainers more liquidity (as long as you don't buy garbage domains .. lol)

 

[wwwweb]

I thought domains had to be at one of their sponsored registrars in order to be sold there?[/QUOTE]

Domain was blockchainbet com, I guess namejet is not doing there homework, sat on my money for 2 weeks, emailed them last week, they said no no don't worry, domain is just transferring over, today get the email based on our TOS we reserve the right to cancel the auction, but we can't say anything blah blah bs whatever, shit show over there anyways.

 

[Arca]

Another thing I noticed is that no worthwhile domains seem to go to closeouts due to getting no bids. If they didn't have bids already, a $10 bid at about 5:50 seems to come in for anything remotely worth buying.

 

[wwwweb]

Another thing I noticed is that no worthwhile domains seem to go to closeouts due to getting no bids. If they didn't have bids already, a $10 bid at about 5:50 seems to come in for anything remotely worth buying.

I’m sure there are regular human domain watchers that once they place that back order on the domain at 6 minutes, they spring into action bidding, and outbidding against the bots, who are just processing these min bids all day hoping to keep sniping human distraction. Unlike bots we take calls, lose focus, or can’t rebid, huge advantage here in that sense.

There is not much you can do to change your style of bidding here, the only solution is you must pay more.

Effectively if we can figure out the bot programming we can tax the bots also in our human ways, as a joint force, and maybe make the bot owners change their strategies to less
liberal means.

 

[wwwweb]

It seems that one bot is set to bid on anything that gets 2 x bids. I saw many of these $10 HD bids (bidder 1) nearly closed, I then placed a bid (bidder 2), and a bidder 3 came in hard every time and the auction turned into a bidding war between 1 and 3. Additional bidders often join in, but this particular pattern with 1 opening and 3 being auto "triggered" by bidder 2, and then going at, it was repeated for a bunch of auctions for low quality names that would normally not get much bidding attention at all, so that was pretty notable compared with how these names normally proceed through the pre-release (most would likely have closed with zero bids had it not been for that $10 opening bid by HugeDomains).

I don't know at what prices these bots are maxed out at. It's a bit risky to figure it out as most of these are low quality names. I did bit up to $XXX on every single name I bid on yesterday even though many of them were certainly not worth that, but nothing I bid on closed below $XXX, so I feel that you can drive the price up to at least $XXX on every name these bots are going after.

Agreed that is why godaddy is loving this, HD b/o bot #1 just casually places backorders around the 6 minute mark, they have effectively tested timing, and found what has worked best, as they would like to avoid setting off human triggers, and getting outbid, or having to pay more than they need to.

As well the multi bid confirmation by outside parties verifying this domain may contain value they have not discovered is another pattern.

I think they have been at this for 2 years started around Dec 2015, so they have probably fine tuned it enough that many master bidders here are started to get annoyed, and that simply means HD is getting it right.

 

[wwwweb]

You can put a proxy bid and leave your PC surely ?

Surely you will be out of business sooner than later, call me crazy but many times I have seen people simply take out someone’s proxy and walk away knowing they made someone pay the max, and they no longer want the name.

Now we go back to step 1, why godaddy is hiding those bidder id, or usernames, what is their motivation, it’s almost as mysterious as trump, and Russia as they will never acknowledge why they are the only auction company in the industry to hide user ids?

They finally folded to pressure with the transfer out loophole, but even that has been gamed by a smart few.

 

[Arca]

Now we go back to step 1, why godaddy is hiding those bidder id, or usernames, what is their motivation, it’s almost as mysterious as trump, and Russia as they will never acknowledge why they are the only auction company in the industry to hide user ids?

Bidder ID's are needed more than ever now imo.

 

[Asfas1000]

Surely you will be out of business sooner than later, call me crazy but many times I have seen people simply take out someone’s proxy and walk away knowing they made someone pay the max, and they no longer want the name.

I don't understand. How can someone know I paid my max since they don't know my proxy bid amount ? Also, why would they risk paying a hefty price if they happen to win the domain ?

 

[wwwweb]

I don't understand. How can someone know I paid my max since they don't know my proxy bid amount ? Also, why would they risk paying a hefty price if they happen to win the domain ?

Isn’t it funny how many bidders like to bid $99, and not $100, or $95, and then all the sudden walk away when they know they have taken someone’s proxy out, psychological levels, the more they make you pay the less you have to spend, or outbid them with.

This leads us back to the question of why no bidder id’s?

 

[UXela]

• How do you know what bots feel? Maybe they do feel rich. Just asked mine and I think I will need to pay some huge psychiatric counseling costs for it
• You can watch domains at GD auction without actually watching those domains
• Assume the worst regarding GD' s general ethics to avoid future disappointment
• Nope - I was not high while writing the above. Those who want to understand will understand.

 

[wwwweb]

Wow .. I didn't really see it that much yesterday .. but right now some big action again at the start of today. I was hoping to pick up "PerfectPancake.com" .. but it just went for $0 with 6 minutes to go and blew past $200 in a couple of minutes and still climbing. 5L Smizz.com over $200? It's good .. but you could do better in 5L for that price .. that 2nd Z kill the radio test. lol




@learie .. there are a few others (NameJet probably being #2) .. but GoDaddy really has a huge bulk of the names and most of the overall volume.

Since when have brandables ever cared about the radio test, the second Z takes it from a prnouncable 4L to an over extended 5L, these are the kind of names that used to go for reg fee to upwards of of the $50 range, $200 is madness. Botsh@t gone crazy, it’s good to see people waste their money on crappy domains, less money to buy good ones, and if it’s HD’s bot that is wasting the houses money on that crud even better. It helps us with decent names command more for our names, after spending $2xx on names like that someone has to mark them to pay for all the laggards, so makes the sell thru drop.

This is just the new norm, there will be more of this head shaking, but if people have money to burn, by all means.

Newbies may watch these shows that show one off examples, but the people who really know the worth of such names are the ones who have had them sitting in their portfolios for years without offers, much like when the Chinese showed up paying $2500 for NQZX.com etc.. the people who had been sitting on them for years other then A D, quickly put them in 10 pack bundles and escrowed them into $25k quickly.

 

[Ategy]

FYI .. TerrorCow.com passed through to closeout untouched .. I'm going to be super generous and not take it in case any of you want it! lol
MooooooBoo

Usually I have gotten pretty good at seeing a name, and the industry behind it, but I can see how this one goes to closeout, untouched, what was your vision behind it, if I may ask?

lol .. He's the new mascot for the Vegan Alliance!

Since when have brandables ever cared about the radio test, the second Z takes it from a prnouncable 4L to an over extended 5L, these are the kind of names that used to go for reg fee to upwards of of the $50 range, $200 is madness. Botsh@t gone crazy, it’s good to see people waste their money on crappy domains, less money to buy good ones, and if it’s HD’s bot that is wasting the houses money on that crud even better. ...

lol .. yups .. couldn't agree more. I grab a few brandable 5L every now .. but I'm pretty sure I wouldn't even have grabbed Smizz.com at closeout ... nevermind $200+.

It just makes me wonder how many domains do HD sell on an ongoing basis?

 

[learie]

Most likely I would have come up against one of you in the auction battlefield on GoDaddy. So, despite there is a bot out there we are engaging each other either-or. So, won't we be contributing to the jacking up of the prices also?