Seasonal Cycles in Domaining

Labeled as question in Domain Expiration and Domain Drop Catching, started by, Jul 15, 2017


  1. Ategy

    Ategy Arif M, VIP ICA Member Gold Account

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    As some of you know, I've semi-regularly post a list of $5 closeout domains or expiring domains going to auction .. and while I have been around domains for a very long time .. this is my first year with the actual intention of domaining, and as such, seriously following expiration lists.

    I'm finding that the last couple of weeks the numbers have dropped significantly .. down to as low as 40% the usual average. While I was expecting a dip .. I really wasn't expecting this sharp of one and so much lower. Is anyone else experiencing this? I know long time bloggers like @Domain Shane often say how Summer is quiet .. but 40% was way more than what I was expecting!

    I wasn't sure if maybe part of this happening at GD is because of TuCow's acquisition of eNom and possibly the move back of their expiring auctions back to NameJet from GoDaddy? But to me the volume of the drop is really more than that, so just wondering if this is normal?

    Or even if any of you are seeing the same thing? The other reasoning could simply be because I'm getting pickier with the names I consider good enough to follow? lol
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  2. Michael

    Michael NameBio Staff PRO VIP ICA Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    The chart above (click for larger version) represents the number of sales we recorded each month going back five years. The July 2017 number is extrapolated out to the end of the month (divided by 15, multiplied by 31). Seems like for the most part Spring and Autumn are the strongest, followed by Winter, then Summer.

    Although that seems like a recent trend. For example in 2012 the Winter and Spring were weak, things picked up in the Summer, and then continued to climb slightly. 2013 had a strong Spring, but the Summer was also either a peak or at least fairly in-line with other months. But after that we start to see a change.

    2014 died off in the Summer and then had a slight recovery in Autumn but then died off again. 2015 the Summer was clearly a valley, and then took off wildly due to the start of the Chinese invasion. 2016 started dying off in the early Summer but then barely recovered. And it looks like 2017 is going to be a rough summer, headed towards a pretty massive decline in July.

    Also worth noting the huge jump from January to February 2015 is due to us re-launching NameBio and re-writing all of our tracking software, so we were collecting many, many more sales than before.

    If you're purely talking about the expired auction game, nobody decides what inventory is coming up other than the previous owners of the individual domains. Personally I think summer doldrums would be counter-intuitive, that would imply people renew at higher rates when they're on vacation. I would think more people would forget to renew when distracted with travel. Of course expired auctions are delayed by more than a month due to the drop cycle, but still.

    I would agree that non-expired auction inventory seems lower or worse quality in the summer, but that may be a self-perpetuating myth. If enough people believe sales are crap in the summer, fewer people will auction their names during this period. Less inventory leads to fewer buyers and weaker results, and it gets even worse and more pronounced the following year.
  3. Kate

    Kate Domainosaurus Rex VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    End users may defer acquisitions until before closing of tax period.
  4. satyadeep singh

    satyadeep singh Established Member

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    what does mean?

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