domain Nameworth.com Experiment "90% chance it will sell in 7 Days"

[ShowMeDomains]

I've seen some other people discuss using Nameworth domain appraisal tool as somewhat of a "guide" so a few weeks ago I started a membership.

I really like the look of it and it provides some different categories for appraising the domain.
It also shows other extensions taken and Additional similar Domains as well as Similar active sites and their Alexa/Majestic Rank.

So a couple hrs ago as I was in a drive- thru line waiting on my food I started playing the GD appraisal just seeing if names are available, (surely I'm not the only one that kills time doing that), anyway I found one that I liked. ILLBank(dot)com, It had a GD valuation of $2,165. I registered it.

Nameworth has an Est. Retail Price of $29,500 and puts it into their Tier 2, Super Premium.

Under the Lower Level, Auction Level, it puts the value at $1,770 and says the chances
of selling it for this price to other domain investors in the next 7 days in 90%.

I figured this would be a good one to put this category of theirs to the test.

So, it is now listed on 3 different marketplaces, all at BIN of $1,770 and I am not going to change the pricing or add make an offer until the 7 days are up.

Cast your vote on if I'll sell this hand reg in the next 7 days for $1,770 or not and obviously I will reveal the outcome.
Cheers!

 

[NameBuyer.com]

I'll like to give a public service announcement here. Don't let any service tell you what a domain is worth without applying scrutiny to the results.

In some cases, (like this) NameWorth says "hey, there may be something here" and there are some indicators similar to names that can be priced higher. Then you need to do research to see if it is a brandable or otherwise used term.

After looking at it, I'm not sure why the term is registered in other extensions. But to me, it seems unlikely that a bank will name itself "ill bank" due to the alternative meanings even if the bank is in Illinois, but would a company name itself illbank? Maybe, but not sure.

So right now, NameWorth errs on the side of the domain investor. That clearly makes no sense in this case, and these will be filtered out more and more in the upcoming 2 releases.

But let me ask you one question. Would you rather it err on the side of the domain investor and you get false positives (such as this), or would you rather it err on the side of the buyer and you get values of $70-$1,700 for fluux (dot) com and PlanToGrow (dot) com, which I sold in the last 12 months for $15k & $24.5k? GoDaddy has since upped their price on fluux, but it is still way off and at a detriment to the domain investor.

Keep in mind, I just released this in March of 2019. So NameWorth is barely over 13 months old. Before launching it, I had worked on it for nearly 2 years. So there will be improvements, but in the meantime, look at the results and additional info with scrutiny as you would any investment. If the existing sites don't seem to match up with "ill bank" or "illbank" as some type of brandable name, then don't buy it and you're probably looking at a false positive.

For fluux, which I sold late last year, this is what it shows. You can instantly see it is registered in other main extensions, and there are at least 3-4 products using the same name space. Not a false positive, BUY NOW!

 

[Pazu]

I vote "Nah".

It appraises highly with Nameworth because a lot of other registered domains contain "illbank" with ill as a suffix to a real keyword, but notice that there are zero actual active websites, and for some reason someone registered this in other extensions. I'm glad Nameworth implemented this feature, similar to ZFbot. I guess it was always based on these calculations, and I assume also search volume to some degree, but now the information used on the backend is more transparent.

As I've been using Nameworth some as well, I see that they miss some of my own names in the similar category. For example, I checked Advrtise dot com that I recently acquired. It did not detect my Advrtisement domain. Probably doesn't pick up on some active websites too, but I still appreciate what I get from it.

Anyway, "ill" is not actually the keyword which was the other domainers' intention when they registered the related names, so I don't really consider them related at all. We must consider ILL is a bad name for a bank as a corporate entity. Maybe you are thinking this has Coronavirus use. Kinda ironic DAN is your lander, since they say no corona names, right (btw I know it's not explicitly for that use).

Appreciate the experiment, but I would recommend adding different names as well.

 

[koolishman]

Appreciate the experiment, but I would recommend adding different names as well.

Agree.

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Joe has said in the first part of his comment what I was about to say.....

NameWorth is nice as a kind of bonus tool, but I put a lot more stock in my own research and valuations.

I do like many things about NameWorth. I like that they give you six different valuations, ranging from if you want to liquidate it immediately to an end user comes calling with that domain in his heart. That is how it works in world, the price depends a lot on the buyer, in many cases, as well as the domain name. I also like their recent addition of the demand section - yes you could look that stuff up independently, but nice having it in one place.

But any evaluation tool should be considered a second (or third) opinion. First make up your own mind, then look at the valuations. If you had never looked at NameWorth and I came to you with this name @Makbliss would you honestly have thought it was worth that much in a quick sale? I don't think so. I admit that the arguably similar name illpay went for a good price, but still, I don't buy the end user or quick sell prices for this name.

So while I do like the idea of experiments in general, trying something out, like a new lander or marketplace or something on part of a portfolio, this one I think is doomed to failure (I voted Nah). As someone mentioned, a real experiment should have you do this not just one one name but a number. I suppose various people on NamePros could collectively do some pretty great experiments.

Now if I am somehow wrong, and you sell it for anything even approximately this, I will try to be one of the first to congratulate you and to say I was wrong.

Good luck. Many think you need it on this experiment!

Bob

PS I do admire your courage to share this public experiment with us all. We learn from things discussed here, even when we disagree.

PPS Interesting the different interpretations. I never actually viewed it as Illinois or I'll but rather Ill in the medical sense, some kind of medical loan was how I saw it! But I'll makes sense.

 

[ShowMeDomains]

It's an "absolutely not" vote from me.

NameWorth is nice as a kind of bonus tool, but I put a lot more stock in my own research and valuations.

I assume you viewed the name as "I'll bank", which sounds cool, but no one is branding with the term. I don't like its chances of selling for more than a few bucks over the next year, but I wish you luck with it.



Whoa... just be careful with those kinds of comments. You asked for opinions, and people have given them here in a respectful manner. It feels very insincere to be asked to voice a thought and then be insulted for it.

Joe has said below what I was about to say.....

I do like many things about NameWorth. I like that they give you six different valuations, ranging from if you want to liquidate it immediately to an end user comes calling with that domain in his heart. That is how it works the price depends a lot on the buyer, in many cases. I also like their recent addition of the demand section - yes you could look that stuff up independently, but nice having it in one place.

But any evaluation tool should be considered a second (or third) opinion. First make up your own mind, then look at the valuations. If you had never looked at NameWorth and I came to you with this name @Makbliss would you honestly have thought it was worth that much in a quick sale? I don't think so. I admit that the arguably similar name illpay went for a good price, but still, I don't buy the end user or quick sell prices for this name.

So while I do like the idea of experiments in general, trying something out, like a new lander or marketplace or something on part of a portfolio, this one I think is doomed to failure. Now if I am somehow wrong, and you sell it for anything even approximately this, I will try to be one of the first to congratulate you and to say I was wrong.

Bob

Hey Bob, I totally don’t disagree with anything you said.

I actually agree with everything you said.

I guess I didn’t make my intentions as clear
as I thought I did in my explanation for doing this.
Would I pay that amount for this domain, nope.
I see a ton of discussion on here, especially from new domainers asking about various appraisal services, and if they are any good etc.

So my intention was more along the lines of “taking one for the team”, at $20 something bucks a month to see what kind of value nameworth may or may not provide and 7.99 for this domain, this isn’t something that i financially need to really weigh weather I can justify the money to do.

it I isn’t going to break the “bank”, i guess is what I’m saying.
I’m sure there’s plenty of people that have wondered how accurate all of the “% of selling in x amount of days or years” is, myself included obviously, and their financial situation may be different.

If I did happen to sell this domain within 7 days, at the price their appraisal said, you better believe I’d try to see how accurate that 7 day 90% chance of selling is on a larger scale and share that info with everyone, you just never know unless you try right?
(Totally agree with everyone that said I should have done More domains, non hand regs).
It shouldn’t matter though in my opinion if it’s a 30 min old hand reg or a 20 year old domain that’s been sold multiple times, if an appraiser is asking for money for their services and giving a value of a domain, with a timeline to sell at that price AND the probability of selling it, in that timeline, at that price, I think that should be tested.
And by More than just me and this one domain.

If...their technology turned out to be accurate on even 20-30% of their,
“sell within 7 days” valuation, that’d be a game changer for all domain investors.

What I’d like to see and hopefully will see in the not too distant future is an appraisal service that is powered with AI/machine learning tech, raising the bar so that the overall opinion of online appraisal services becomes better than “they’re all worthless” as most people seem to feel.
#Raising the bar.

Sorry for the novel, always great to hear from you and get your insight Bob.

 

[Dave]

Absolutely not.

Do not rely on automated appraisals to make decisions.

 

[Joe N]

It's an "absolutely not" vote from me.

NameWorth is nice as a kind of bonus tool, but I put a lot more stock in my own research and valuations.

I assume you viewed the name as "I'll bank", which sounds cool, but no one is branding with the term. I don't like its chances of selling for more than a few bucks over the next year, but I wish you luck with it.

...just so some know it alls have another opportunity to make themselves feel special for all to see.

Whoa... just be careful with those kinds of comments. You asked for opinions, and people have given them here in a respectful manner. It feels very insincere to be asked to voice a thought and then be insulted for it.

 

[Ategy]

.. every day when I look at the top of the NameBio sales list, many names that I simply can't see them selling at the price they went for. The new list is just out, and I looked at names over this price $1700+, and there are at least 5 that not only sold for more than I thought, but I simply would have said there was no chance they would sell anywhere near the price if at all. That is 5 out of about 25, and most days are like that.

You actually just proved my point at how bad domains like that actually are.

5 x 365 = 1825 such domains a year .. out of how many low-probability domains for sale out there? 35 million at least ... that makes of a 0.005% sell-trough rate A YEAR .. or a 0.0001% chance of selling in 7 days..

Yes you might make a long-shot lucky sale .. but such low-probability domains are effectively money burners. Selling at 100x on average you would lose 99.5% of your investment every year. And that's if it was equal in probability of sale as those 5 a day you're talking about .. which I'm not sure of.

That being said, it's nothing really specific to this domain .. there are tons that are at or below those 5 questionable domains that sell every day .. just because a few domains are lucky does not mean they ever were good investments ... *UNLESS* the investor had additional reasons for buying the domain(s).

What I’d like to see and hopefully will see in the not too distant future is an appraisal service that is powered with AI/machine learning tech, raising the bar so that the overall opinion of online appraisal services becomes better than “they’re all worthless” as most people seem to feel.

Increase the power of computing by a factor of 1,000,000 and you'll still never get an automated valuation tool that's even "good". The real problem is being able to program in all the non-scientific metrics .. and designing the basic algorithms. Remember domaining is as much art as it is science. There are many nuances and metrics that you can program into an algorithm .. but many you can't.

Plus why would you even want a good AI for domain valuation? The moment you get that we'll never be able to find undervalued gems. Every day I find absolute gems at closeout that are vastly underpriced .. that's how you make money .. by having a unique eye and perspective and finding gems that others miss.

That's what's great about domaining. Because while you obviously need to master all the concepts of domaining itself .. after that there are hundreds of millions of domains out there .. not everyone has the same life experience to identify all the gems. That's why I asked if there was something special about the "ILL" prefix .. because maybe there indeed is hidden value in it that my life experience didn't cross paths with.

Despite my going through the raw lists just about every single night for a few hours for well over 1000 days now, I guarantee that if you spend the same amount of time tomorrow even if for the first time, you would find a gem in there I'd have missed. THAT is how to make money domaining. The very last thing we'd ever want is an AI "eye" that sees everything on the artistic side of domains that a human sees and automations current are completely incapable of grasping aside from using cheat shortcuts via using other metrics (which sometimes works but certainly not always).


Automated tolls are fantastic tools for helping you find value on a broad scale and filtering through volume .. but ultimately as domainers we need to be able to see and understand the value and probability of sale in our acquisitions, otherwise there's a good chance we'll simply be burning money on domains where the math is so far from making sense that we'd be better off sending our money to African princes.

 

[Ategy]

@Ategy

possibility of automated appraisals being a tool any domainer should ever reply on for specific individual (non-liquid) domains

EPIK is trying to build one. There is a recent thread.

lol .. it has nothing to do with who builds it. Each word combination is unique .. there are most certainly some domains that different automated tools will get right. Some automation algorithms that will be better than others. Certain algorithms that will yield more accurate results on some types of domains and others on others.

Ultimately you'll need a master at branding *AND* linguistics *AND* have them go through the dictionary to plug in how certain words relate to others and to value even the same words differently in multiple contexts. *THEN* also being able to translate those concepts into algorithms to derive value. Yes you can do some short cuts and it isn't the 10,000,000 man*hour project I make it out to be. But it's still a monstrous task .. and I have crossed very VERY few people if any who have a grasp on all those concepts *AND* also have a good grasp of what actually makes a good domain.

Ultimately domainers need to do all those things in their head as well in order to find good domains to invest in. I say it would be almost impossible to develop an algorithm .. but let me also be clear that most humans (domainers) don't have a strong enough grasp on the concepts either. That is why the vast majority of people entering domaining fail (particularly with brandables and 2-word combo brandables). I'm not sure how many people actually make a profit with such domains, but it's certainly a tiny minority .. particularly if you include all the ones that start for a few weeks, buy a few domains, and then give up because they didn't come close to make a profit. There has to be hundreds and likely thousands of those in-and-out domainers each and every year. I'm thinking maybe @Josh R might have a better guestimate on the number of domainers who work with such domains that actually make a profit.

Even a monstrously complex and detailed algorithm could never come close to an experienced domainer who has a broad general knowledge of the world and specifically industries that value and have demand for domains. I'll take my gut and brain and life-experience over even an extremely complex algorithm every day for the next 30+ years. When you get an AI that appreciates and accurately values art 97% of the time then come talk to me .. we aren't there technologically yet .. and most certainly not in terms of anyone being able to hammer out even a fraction of the algorithms necessary to achieve even a level of "not horrible".

I haven't been around here as much in the last month with everything else going on .. but what's the latest on Epik's valuation tool? (@Rob Monster?) .. link?


Also .. for those interested in the domain math I was talking about in my post above, check out the following post as I break it down in more detail and answer some questions ...
https://www.namepros.com/threads/turning-10-000-into-1-000-000-in-6-years-of-domaining.1175266/

 

[ecalc]

If a machine could reliably find $10 hand regs with 90% chance of reselling for $1770 in 7 days it would be humming behind closed doors while the owner counted money. No such thing exists and anyone promoting one to others is hoping to profit on domain registration fees or tool subscription fees.

 

[Samer]

Love case studies such as this.

Best of luck to you.

Samer

 

[ShowMeDomains]

Absolutely not.

Do not rely on automated appraisals to make decisions.

I’m not “relying” on anything, it’s an EXPERIMENT..as stated in the title.

 

[Domain Monk]

10000% it won't sell , and not a great name imo, use these appraisal tool but don't use it without doing your own research.

 

[ShowMeDomains]

10000% it won't sell , and not a great name imo, use these appraisal tool but don't use it without doing your own research.

No No, If only domain selling did work like a planned and facilitated laboratory experiment (and I mean 'facilitated' by all those that have an interest in you buying their KIT)

This is a Doomed experiment with a diabolical domain that wouldn't pass the starting-gate on a $1 to $10 auction. Time to leave all those so called 'Analytical tools' alone, they are just rubbish designed for fools self-gratification and delusion

Use your own brain, it's a far better tool

So how do you really feel?

 

[koolishman]

No No, If only domain selling did work like a planned and facilitated laboratory experiment (and I mean 'facilitated' by all those that have an interest in you buying their KIT)

This is a Doomed experiment with a diabolical domain that wouldn't pass the starting-gate on a $1 to $10 auction. Time to leave all those so called 'Analytical tools' alone, they are just rubbish designed for fools self-gratification and delusion

Use your own brain, it's a far better tool

This is just an experiment, read OP again.

Doomed experiment with a diabolical domain.

Seriously?

 

[Bob Hawkes]

I did say, and believe, there is little chance it will sell in 7 days at this price. That said, every day when I look at the top of the NameBio sales list, many names that I simply can't see them selling at the price they went for. The new list is just out, and I looked at names over this price $1700+, and there are at least 5 that not only sold for more than I thought, but I simply would have said there was no chance they would sell anywhere near the price if at all. That is 5 out of about 25, and most days are like that.

So while I said nah, I leave a tiny sliver of door open that maybe I am wrong. In which case I will be happy for @Makbliss . Still, if I was a betting person, I think odds are against him on this experiment.

Bob

 

[ShowMeDomains]

I did say, and believe, there is little chance it will sell in 7 days at this price. That said, every day when I look at the top of the NameBio sales list, many names that I simply can't see them selling at the price they went for. The new list is just out, and I looked at names over this price $1700+, and there are at least 5 that not only sold for more than I thought, but I simply would have said there was no chance they would sell anywhere near the price if at all. That is 5 out of about 25, and most days are like that.

So while I said nah, I leave a tiny sliver of door open that maybe I am wrong. In which case I will be happy for @Makbliss . Still, if I was a betting person, I think odds are against him on this experiment.

Bob

I see the same thing daily as well, some of the sales just make you want to pull you hair out.
“So you’re saying there’s a chance”?
(Dumb and dumber movie reference)

 

[Sutruk]

So right now, NameWorth errs on the side of the domain investor. That clearly makes no sense in this case, and these will be filtered out more and more in the upcoming 2 releases.

But let me ask you one question. Would you rather it err on the side of the domain investor and you get false positives (such as this), or would you rather it err on the side of the buyer and you get values of $70-$1,700 for fluux (dot) com and PlanToGrow (dot) com, which I sold in the last 12 months for $15k & $24.5k?

Very well said. I don't look at any automatic appraisal tool to value my domains, but if I would need to use one, I would go for your web.
Estibot and GD undervalue domains too much. So I prefer an automatic tool that errs on the side of the domain investor. GD 99% of the time errs on the side of the buyer, and also Estibot. They undervalue good domains by -10x, and also value worthless domains saying they are worth $1,000 or $1,900.
GD values everything from 1,500 to 2,500 whatever it is.

Note: I just visited Nameworth.com and I see you request people to register.
I would place if for free without login. Maybe place a limit of appraisals per day, but definitely let the first time visitors play a bit with the appraisal tool, before asking them to register. Just my feedback and my 2 cents

 

[Pazu]

Another thought on this - given a large number of domains similar to the domain being estimated, maybe the 7 day figure is possible provided you do outbound to the leads provided. If there were, say, 30 domain holders you think would want to purchase your name, they're probably not going to be checking to see if the domain is for sale within 7 days of acquisition. You'd have to either mail them to alert them to the opportunity or wait a year or two for them to get curious or stumble upon it. (Full disclosure: I don't do outbound).

In this case, to quote Glengarry Glen Ross, "The leads are weak!"

 

[Ategy]

I don't get it? To me this is a worthless domain unless ILL actually stands for something significant (if it did them you should have stated so in the first post, so I'm assume the only thing ILL stands for is being sick .. which actually makes it worse than a random 3L combo as nobody wants a business names associated with being ill/sick).

Remember that automated valuations are pretty much useless when talking about single domains. Your including those numbers in the first post has effectively zero significance.

The one thing people always overlook with automated appraisals is that while they might sometimes get the range sometimes in the right ballpark .. an absolutely crucial factor missing is chance/probability of sale.

So yes .. *IF* there is a buyer for a 3L+Bank.com domain they could certainly be willing to pay $2k. But the demand for random 3LBank domains is virtually nil .. again .. unless ILL is something significant.

 

[enterscope]

I voted Nah but I really hope it does! Fingers crossed for you.

edit* thanks for sharing Nameworth looks like a very useful tool! GL

 

[BaileyUK]

Great thought-out and Diplomatic replies from Ategy. Me - yes I have to get straight to the point (no diplomats job for me out there then)

It's a shame that we old timers have to tread on Glass when calling-out bad domains or concepts. There are far to many domain investors that just seem to have great ideas on how to loose the shirts off their back and still bite back at any criticism.

 

[ShowMeDomains]

It could be from LLL + Bank .com comps and other factors. But I'm starting to kind of like the name illbank.com not just from Illinois but also ILL acronym. It has a $2100+ GD appraisal too.

I hear it’s for sale If you’re interested.

 

[CraigD]

So, it's May 22 (1 month down the track).

Did you get any bites @Makbliss?