.mobi .mobi Doing Much Better Than Expected

[jmcc]

I was looking at the stats for the .mobi zonefile this morning and the count was 867629. The landrush anniversary count was 959154. The difference in registration volume is 91525 domains. The volume of domains in the zone is only off by 9.54%. The Landrush anniversary was 26 September 2008 and as such the landrush in many of the newer TLDs tends to last approximately three months. During these three months the number of new registrations surges. After this initial period, the registration numbers begin to fall off.

I posted an article about this on my blog [1] but this post just summarises it. The number of domains that have dropped out of the zonefile since the landrush anniversary is 154006 but in the same time, 62481 new domains have been seen. This is lessening the effect of the Junk Dump phase when the stuff that could not be sold is dropped. Far from being a wipeout, there is still life left in .mobi.

Regards...jmcc
[1] http://blog.whoisireland.com/2008/12/31/mobi-registrations-doing-much-better-than-expected/

 

[mediaadvantages]

what naysayers seem to not understand, is that .mobi is a developers extension. the names you see being dropped are by domainers who couldn't flip them. you don't see existing companies deciding they don't want them and letting them drop. when you start seeing bestbuy, foxnews and other respectable companies drop their .mobis you can actually talk about how .mobi is dead. until then go back to doing whatever you do because your points are useless.

 

[snoop]

No matter what side of the pro/con .mobi side you fall on ... no objective discussion can just dismiss the FACT that there has been a sharp cutback in discretionary spending throughout the world in late 2008 into early 2009. And it is MUCH, MUCH larger in magnitude than during the dot com bust.

The thing is the dot com bust was well...the .com bust. It was a massive bust in the exact area of these domains, so for .com to have fallen then by 5%, whilst right now .mobi is already down by 9.5%, that paints a very bad picture. It would be better admit the reality of what is happening rather than going around thinking up excuses/justifications etc.

To compare the 2008/2009 drop cycle numbers of the still-new .mobi today to the .com drop cycles numbers of 2000/2001 given the established nature of the extension is not an "apples to apples" comparison ... (comparatively .com had a decade+ longer head start in its acceptance and application)

.com is successful so let's not compare it to .mobi, c'mon, they are both domain extensions, these are hardly different types of assets that can't be compared.

Your .biz/.info comparison is closer to being in the "ballpark" of a valid comparison for discussion purposes but your refusal to admit the seriousness and uniqueness of the current economic conditions and their effect on the likelihood of discretionary domain name renewal decisions - AT THE TIME - casts a shadow over your argument and the relevancy of the stats that you originally cited.

Who is saying the current situation isn't serious? The thing I don't get is how you think this somehow means a 9.5% fall is less significant?

Without taking into account the domainers' investing backdrop of the time, your citing of those "9%", 9.5%" , etc. drop stats in such a vacuum makes them just as much "opinion" in this discussion as any other opinions expressed in this thread. "Lies, damn lies, and statistics" ... to paraphrase ... Mark Twain ...

It is simply numbers, fact not opinion, statistics based on registration numbers from Zooknic.

http://www.zooknic.com/Domains/counts.html

How can one refuse to admit into evidence for this discussion the FACTS? ...
When the anniversary drops happened for .biz (2004) and .info (2003), the general state of the world economy at those times provided far more freed up capital to be spent on speculative renewal fees than in late 2008 and now into early 2009 when the .mobi anniversary drop period is happening

How does this help .mobi? A bust is a bust, no matter what exceptions/excuses/obfuscations are brought up.

You are the one that brought up the comparison of the NOW 2 yr anniversary .mobi drop cycle with the THEN .biz and THEN .info drops cycles. You CAN NOT draw an accurate and valid comparison without taking into account everything that causes the level of drops ... or ... the level of registrations for that matter.

I don't need to take anything "into account", the numbers tell the story. 9.5% registration loss so far, 90%-100% value drop. Unlike the OP who said this was a good result my point was it actually looks like the worst result on record for a gtld and it isn't over yet.

For example, if .info registrations cost $1.99 each and .mobi registrations cost $7.99 each ... given EVERYTHING else being equal ... which do you think would see more raw number of registrations? And because today a domainer could register 4 times as many $1.99 names as $7.99 names does that mean the $1.99 extension is "better" and will be more "successful"? ... "Better" how? ... and "Successful" at what? You can't compare it until you see the results of all those registrations enough years down the road to erase such pricing discrepancy or other dissimilar market factors.

What does all that have to do with .mobi?

Aside from food, shelter, clothing, transportation and a few other necessities everything else is optional. The .mobi anniversary drop cycle has come directly during the trough of a great worldwide economic downturn, largest in a half century. For one to say that that has no bearing on the reinvestment of speculative funds (which is what most of a DOMAINERS' reg/renewal fees are in ANY extension) today compared to 5 years ago or 10 years ago is ... is ... well ignoring reality is what it is.
.

Not sure what you are talking about with all that as obviously it has a had a huge effect. The recession making the degree of the falls even worse isn't a plus for .mobi.

what naysayers seem to not understand, is that .mobi is a developers extension. the names you see being dropped are by domainers who couldn't flip them. you don't see existing companies deciding they don't want them and letting them drop. when you start seeing bestbuy, foxnews and other respectable companies drop their .mobis you can actually talk about how .mobi is dead. until then go back to doing whatever you do because your points are useless.

Extensions become "developers" extensions when the domainers leave the building. People say the same thing about .tv, "no money in it, lots of money down the drain, ok this is a developers extension!".

Also, .info .biz etc were born into the established market of the pc web with known usage and demand. The mobile web is still in its infancy, the real development of this medium has yet to occur. thus the heyday of dotmobi lies in the future not the present.

Any excuse will do.....

 

[scandiman]

Once you stop looking at the raw numbers it just becomes opinion......The success of .mobi can easily be guaged in the numbers, reg volumes, sales prices, it is probably the biggest bust the domain industry has ever seen in terms of the size of the falls.

Since you are so keen on numbers can you back this opinion up with facts?

Look at the sales prices, 3 letter .mobi's are now selling for less than .biz's, that is saying something about the confidence people have in this extension.

Domain speculators aren't interested in random LLL.mobi... oh the horror 8^X

 

[mjnels]

i deleted some LLL.mobi this morning.... the buyout no longer holds

TYW.mobi
JJL.mobi
LVY.mobi

all available to reg.









.....



*edit*

heyyyyy... someone reg'd em.. they sat available for around 2 hours... but i am the controller of all things LLL.mobi!

TDV.mobi, HQC.mobi, ZFB.mobi now available to register! muhahahahahha


the buyout is again, officially not held.







.....



*edit again*


heyyyyy no fair, someone ran a scan on the rest i just deleted.

this is funny, considering i had an auction up for 50 LLL.mobi's at regfee yesterday that ended with 0 bids.





.....





*and edit again*


UPZ.mobi now available to reg..... BOOYA!





.....





*and edit again, again*

you guys are getting faster... but now i must offset the buyout again... POOF, FZU.mobi now available to register.

 

[snoop]

Since you are so keen on numbers can you back this opinion up with facts?

I have already presented data about that, .mobi regitrations are down 9.5% so far, I have not heard of a bigger fall from a gtld ever, .com fell 5% during the bust, .biz and .info fell 9% after landrush. Prices are down 90% at the top end eg games.mobi and the bottom end looks to be more like 100% falls.

Domain speculators aren't interested in random LLL.mobi... oh the horror 8^X

I'm not sure I get you, in any healthy extension domainers are interested in 3 letter names.

i deleted some LLL.mobi this morning.... the buyout no longer holds

TYW.mobi
JJL.mobi
LVY.mobi

all available to reg.

Thanks for the info, sad but not really surprising either. I would think countless buyout are likely to fail, maybe all of them from the last couple of years except LLLL.com.

 

[mjnels]

i expected a much larger drop in registrations around this time actually..


people are picking up every single LLL.mobi ive been deleting... but i expect this will change when 4,000 of them drop into the mix in about a week here.. i do think they will get bought out again.. but probably not right away..



now, i shall throw 2 more into the mix... HQU.mobi, LYW.mobi just deleted by me... feed sharks, feed.

Thanks for the info, sad but not really surprising either. I would think countless buyout are likely to fail, maybe all of them from the last couple of years except LLLL.com.

well, it actually is going to hold for about 1 more week.. i was just saying that because of the 15 or so ive deleted today.. one person even appears to be scanning the entire lists now. will be interesting to see what happens in a week.








*EDIT*

okay, someone registered those.. 1 more for now.

EGV.mobi now you see it.... in 30 minutes you wont.

 

[scandiman]

I have already presented data about that, .mobi regitrations are down 9.5% so far, I have not heard of a bigger fall from a gtld ever, .com fell 5% during the bust, .biz and .info fell 9% after landrush. Prices are down 90% at the top end eg games.mobi and the bottom end looks to be more like 100% falls.

I'm curious if you are looking at the actual lists of .mobi drops? Of the over 2,000 dropping tonight alone there is probably less than 10 I would consider worth registering at all.

It's funny to me to judge any extension by the bad domains that drop, here's a sampling of tonight's beauties:

265599663.mobi
3dpatiofurniturestores.mobi
awakeningtheentrepreneurwithin.mobi
buttuglybeer.mobi
exportcontrol2pc.mobi

:sold::lol:

 

[snoop]

I'm curious if you are looking at the actual lists of .mobi drops? Of the over 2,000 dropping tonight alone there is probably less than 10 I would consider worth registering at all.

This is no different to any extension, most of the names aren't worth anything.

An extension doesn't contract by this much just because people think they registered the wrong names. It is very much to do with the extension. That is why prices are down 90%-100% and the lll.mobi buyout is currently failing.

 

[dochlaggie]

The mobile web is now very much like the pc internet in the 90's.

Was there a market for domain reselling in the 90's ?

The mobile web will be huge and mobi will have it's place.

Things are just not happening as quickly as many hoped, and the economic climate has a big influence.

We have seen nothing yet with drops. Just wait until you see the .asia drops.
With dot asia there was nearly nothing left to register at landrush. So many names had been pre ordered. All LLL dot asia where preordered.

 

[MrRhee]

i want to extend a serious "thanks" to all the naysayers and trolls...

thanks for doing your best to keep .mobi prices down. I applaud you for all your valuable time spent in the .mobi section. Most people wouldn't have the time or patience needed to invest so much time discussing an extension that they aren't invested in... you are an important part of the .mobi ecosystem. Where would we be without someone constantly trying to save us from ourselves? Because of missionaries like them, I've been able to build the portfolio I need at prices that allow me to leave plenty of room in the budget for development.

Keep up the good work!

.

 

[jmcc]

We have seen nothing yet with drops. Just wait until you see the .asia drops.
With dot asia there was nearly nothing left to register at landrush. So many names had been pre ordered. All LLL dot asia where preordered.

I don't think that .asia is doing as well as people expected it to do. The graph on the link below shows the stats for 2008. The 01/January/2009 stats for .asia showed that since 01/December/2008, only 3999 new .asia domains were registered.

http://www.hosterstats.com/Detailed-asia-Statistics-2008.php

In real terms, .asia does not have the same level of growth as the other newer TLDS (.eu and .mobi). People are dropcatching in .mobi and that is a good sign.

Regards...jmcc

9.5% is not a good result. It is possibly the biggest decline a gtld has ever seen.

Actually it is a good result. The .eu ccTLD (which is really a gTLD) had over 10% on the Junk Dump phase and it is still widely regarded in Europe as a junk extension.

As a comparison .biz dropped 9% after the anniversary, .info the same 9% - that was from the very high to the very low. Both those extensions have been flops, especially .biz.

While .info has been subject to heavy discounting, it is not a flop. It is currently over 5 Million domains. The .biz is around 2 Million. The growth in .biz has been slower and steadier. The baseline for success in a TLD is the usage of the TLD for e-mail and web. It is not the resale value of individual domains.

.mobi has already exceed those levels and there is still quite alot to be worked through the systems by the sounds of it. In terms of significance a 9% in registration is huge, even during the .com bust .com registration only fell 5%, but actual values in the aftermarket fell by about 90%.

While there is still a lot junk in the .mobi extension, there is also an element of growth or new registrations. The 9% value is not huge. It reflects the highly speculative element of the landrush registrations. Over 50% is huge.

When a market implodes it is followed by a much smaller fall in registrations, they are rather "sticky", some people hang on for years before being willing to let names expire.

When a market implodes, the new registrations disappear. This is not happening with .mobi as new registrations are still being made in significant numbers. For December 2008, there were 62292 deletions and 25760 new registrations. I would expect that approximate ratio to continue for a few months longer but the key will be if the new registration numbers continue at the same level.

Regards...jmcc

You can always argue "it is different this time" but at the end of the day it is a massive drop compared to other extensions. How was the economy during the dot com bust?

Surprisingly the economy was on the up when the domains started dropping in the aftermath of the dot.bomb. Prior to 2001 or so, the .com/net/org domains had to be registered initially for 2 years. Many of the dot.bomb failures occurred in 2000-2001 and those domains would have dropped in 2002-2003.

Once you stop looking at the raw numbers it just becomes opinion

Strangely, that's how I look at things. I also run periodic web surveys of entire TLDs to establish their usage patterns.

The success of .mobi can easily be guaged in the numbers, reg volumes, sales prices, it is probably the biggest bust the domain industry has ever seen in terms of the size of the falls.

Resale prices are only a very small element of any TLD. The key element in the success of a TLD is its usage. That drives the market. Otherwise you've just got a purely speculative bubble. This is exactly what happened to .eu ccTLD (and of course the EUrid registry were utterly incompetent in stopping massive cyberwarehousing and cybersquatting).

Look at the sales prices, 3 letter .mobi's are now selling for less than .biz's, that is saying something about the confidence people have in this extension.

That is the classic .com logical fallacy - because something is rare and vaulable in .com, the same domain should be similarly valuable in any other TLD. And so all the stupid money is dumped in landrushes on these domains - as happened with .eu and .mobi and to a lesser extent .biz and .info. The .mobi TLD has a lot of growing up to do yet and it may benefit from the rise in mobile internet applications. However that will require more emphasis on development rather than the Buy To Park market. It is the Buy To Park market that is being hit hard now with falling PPC revenue.

Regards...jmcc

 

[mjnels]

this is the first night all LLL.mobi didnt get registered within seconds of the drop...

XVV.mobi is still available right now, 30 minutes after the drop.. this leads me to believe that when the 4,000 (or however many) LLL.mobi drop there will be at least several hundred that sit available for at least a few days..possibly more and longer, but i think eventually theyll get bought out again..

 

[accent]

XVV was taken at 9:30, along with the others on my list - which was 75 names.

4500 LLL.mobis will be interesting to watch, but that is a one time mega-event that will not mean much in the long run.

As I hear it there will be no more LLL.mobi drops after a couple weeks.

 

[coast]

Opentable.com also owns Opentable.mobi. Apparently the owners of Opentable thought it to be in their interest to secure a name in the MOBI.

I think what you mean by "worthless" is worthless to domainers. Unlike the COM tld, most business owners are not compelled to secure their name in the MOBI extension. There are options other than MOBI. Therefore, because business owners are not being held hostage to domainers, they can pass on high priced MOBIs without any harm to their business. For this reason, the standard "reg and squat" tactics of domainers doesn't work with MOBI, like it would with COM. In order for somebody to get into MOBI and make money, they have to have a concept first. Mass buying MOBI isn't a concept. Since most domainers only know how to buy and park, they only lose money with MOBI. The MOBI TLD is not made for domainers who have no concept/plan as to why they are buying/investing in the domain name. Get an idea first, then buy.

My advice, only buy what you can develope in MOBI. If you don't have any ideas or can't do the programming required, move onto easier, more parkable* TLDs like COM.

:bingo:

This is exactly right, and it is why .mobi names are dropping out of domainers' portfolios and are being picked up by developers. Of course, when instant mobilizer is rolled out we may see something different. I'm looking forward to the details on that.

 

[mjnels]

i dont think that is an accurate representation of whats really happening.... i would say, from looking at the whois of drops for the last 4-5 months... MOST of the decent domains dropping are getting picked back up by domainers again.

anyway... about 75 LLL.mobi's dropped last night and they all got snapped up besides a few stragglers which eventually got registered... i grabbed most of the "decent" ones which was only about 10% of what dropped in my opinion.. hey, i have to advertise that im the fastest... so far. i will probably attempt to sell off the rest of the decent ones as a package... honestly, they are not worth much right now.. but i have some of the better ones that have been dropping..

im feeling generous at the moment and dont need all these LLL.mobi's.... i shall cast EEY.mobi and EEQ.mobi into the sea of availability... now you see them, in 1 hour you wont. _\|/_

 

[thebiffenator]

i want to extend a serious "thanks" to all the naysayers and trolls...

thanks for doing your best to keep .mobi prices down. I applaud you for all your valuable time spent in the .mobi section. Most people wouldn't have the time or patience needed to invest so much time discussing an extension that they aren't invested in... you are an important part of the .mobi ecosystem. Where would we be without someone constantly trying to save us from ourselves? Because of missionaries like them, I've been able to build the portfolio I need at prices that allow me to leave plenty of room in the budget for development.

Keep up the good work!

.

Amen

By the way I picked up Boobie last night The site will be live within 1 week along with Titts that was a pick up from the 26th drops. My other 2 recent drops that I made live are Zeta.mobi and shores.mobi

 

[dochlaggie]

Yes, I agree. This last couple of months has been great.
I have picked up some wonderful names, well suited to the mobile internet.
Some are already making money.

Also a couple of names, I missed 2 years ago, bingo I was able to hand register.

Without the naysayers, this would not be possible.

So I would like to add my thanks to this thread.

Must get back to work building out these names, adding value and making my portfolio profitable.

 

[snoop]

Yes, I agree. This last couple of months has been great.
I have picked up some wonderful names, well suited to the mobile internet.
Some are already making money.

Also a couple of names, I missed 2 years ago, bingo I was able to hand register.

Without the naysayers, this would not be possible.

So I would like to add my thanks to this thread.

Must get back to work building out these names, adding value and making my portfolio profitable.

Extensions don't collapse because of "naysayers", those people have been around since 2006, in fact I'd say since prices have started tumbling there is fewer people making negative comments. The reason why prices have collapsed is because .mobi buyers have left the building.

 

[gladdy]

INTERNET.MOBI sold lately for near 10K

 

[snoop]

INTERNET.MOBI sold lately for near 10K

Just saw that one, was it one of the premium .mobi auctions? I thought I had seen that sold before.