LLLL.net COUNTDOWN

[-REECE-]

New Member Disclaimer: Four letter domain names are a relatively new investment category that is only beginning to gain traction in Dotcom. This domaining sector offers potentially larger returns than traditional revenue or traffic based domain names, however with this investment opportunity comes extravagant risk.

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It was only a matter of time... First King Com. Then .CN fell. And now... I present to you LLLL.net

This thread is designed to elicit discussion about LLLL.nets. You're encouraged to post anything you feel is relevant to LLLL.nets in this thread. This includes sales information, new regs, ...

Feb 05, 2008: All quad premium LLLL.nets are registered

 

[Shenron]

That estimate is a bit off :imho:
Some really optimistic people like shenron are predicting an end-of-year buyout while other not-so-optimistic people like tristan and myself think around 1 and a half years would be a better estimate.

Nope, I'm not expecting end of year, I said it's a chance, though remote.
I'm looking for end of 2009 as a realistic target,still I say it's not impossible to happen this year **IF** some conditions are met.

I don't see these conditions atm, btw.

 

[domainhunt]

I hope all the .net's will be over within 1 year...

and vcvc's will be over within 2 months...

GRAB THEM<>>

 

[Ja$on]

I hope they are all gone tomorrow.

 

[Travis]

it is around 45%, ......4 years to register all (IMO).

I'm thinking a year to a year and a half. People are going to continue to register at the current rate which will take us to about 10% within a year, then the big investors are going to start buying the last ones in bulk.

 

[zems]

Isn't it to much optimitic? Look at the past for LLLL.COMs:

22% Remaining - 25th January 2006
19% Remaining - 31st March 2006
16% Remaining - 29th June 2006
13% Remaining - 1st August 2006
10% Remaining - 15th February 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early April)
9% Remaining - 26th February 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early May)
8% Remaining - 2nd March 2007 (crossed without traffic testing in June)
7% Remaining - 21st March 2007 (crossed without traffic testing early July)
6% Remaining - 3rd July 2007(crossed without traffic testing some time in July)
5% Remaining - 1st August 2007(crossed without traffic testing August 11)
4% Remaining - 14th August 2007(crossed late August)
3% Remaining - 15th September 2007(crossed In September)
2% Remaining - 14th October 2007
1% Remaining - 31st October 2007
0% Remaining - 2nd November - COUNTDOWN COMPLETE!

So it take almost 2 years for 22% for .coms, why do you think that 45% nets will be both in year , year and a half?

 

[bobby9101]

Isn't it to much optimitic? Look at the past for LLLL.COMs:



So it take almost 2 years for 22% for .coms, why do you think that 45% nets will be both in year , year and a half?

More internet users, more domainers, short domains gaining popularity... etcetera

 

[squid]

More internet users, more domainers, short domains gaining popularity... etcetera

Exactly what you said.
What about all the people that missed LLLL.com's - the ones that didn't believe it would go anywhere? They're going to be eager to get every chance at making money this time. I think LLLL.net's will sell out faster than the LLLL.com's did, even though they will never be worth as much.

 

[Travis]

Isn't it to much optimitic? Look at the past for LLLL.COMs:



So it take almost 2 years for 22% for .coms, why do you think that 45% nets will be both in year , year and a half?

No one ever thought LLLL.coms would be a good investment. Now that they are gone, look at all the interest in crappy alternatives such as LLL.in, LLLLL.coms, L-L-L.net, etc. Out of all other future buyouts, LLLL.nets are the best of the bunch.

 

[krx]

So it take almost 2 years for 22% for .coms, why do you think that 45% nets will be both in year , year and a half?

There is no reason to think the LLLL.net buyout will follow the exact schedule as the LLLL.com. This is for several reasons. One, the LLLL.com buyout was a precedent setting event. It created a kind of buyout fever that has spawned numerous buyout niches/threads. As squid said, there are A LOT of domainers out there who missed the LLLL.com boat. Any sign that LLLL.nets are picking up speed will start a feeding frenzy - as we saw in early Feb for the LLLL.net prems. Some may doubt the intrinsic worth of LLLL.nets. But no one doubts their value will increase once all of them are gone. Even naysayers love a good ROI and will not miss another opportunity to get in on the action.

The other big difference is, as Bobby said, more domainers and endusers are entering the market everyday. The most sought after names are short dotcoms. Few can now afford a good, short generic dotcom; likewise, few can afford a LLL.com. The logical next choice for many is a LLLL.com. As the prices for these become increasingly unaffordable, the focus will shift to the next best thing: either a hyphenated 3 or 4 letter dot com or a 4 letter dot net.

I personally would prefer an unhyphenated dot net to a hyphenated dot com, so that's where I'm putting my money (along with LLLL.coms).

 

[filter]

There is no reason to think the LLLL.net buyout will follow the exact schedule as the LLLL.com. This is for several reasons. One, the LLLL.com buyout was a precedent setting event. [...]

We're glad that you're fond of this member, but please give some rep points to some other members before giving it to krx again.

interesting analysis of speculator psychology, thanks for articulating your thoughts Ken!

I don't right now have a strong grasp on LLLL.net buyout timeline either way - keeping an eye on where the "value cap" sits relative to reg fee based on (maybe bogus) 10% of LLLL.com value for triple-premiums - guessing that if/when the LLLL.com minimum is $100+, that will put more wind in the sails of those regging the remaining 200,000+ LLLL.net ...

also interesting to see where CCC.net prices go in the next year - anyone paying attention to these? Seems like they're sometimes going for (a little bit) less than 10% of corresponding CCC.com ? And minimum CCC.com price currently seems to be at least 4 times the minimum LLLL.com price ... not sure how long that ratio will last. (Looking at this as potential indicator of price cap for the LLLL.net "dregs" - ie the last 40,000 or so.)

one way or another, will take over $1,000,000 coming into the LLLL.net market to support reg fees to buyout the number remaining. How long would it take to see 10,000 sales of LLLL.net domains to end-users at $100 each ...? If there were 30 such sales every day, would take a bit less than a year. That's a big if ...... Likewise imagine 1000 new domainers coming in with $1000 each to speculate. As for established players - I suspect many already bought their share prior to the February premium buyout - if a handful still see the "vacuum and flip" end-stage play worthwhile that may accelerate the final phase of a buyout, but just by a few weeks ....

Just some different random angles to consider - very fuzzy models - plug in your own numbers and see what starts to feel realistic. Could go any of several different ways - so better "hope for the best, plan for the worst" ....

 

[rkbdomain]

Yeah, the key will be when LLLL.com's are worth more than $100. Then LLLL.net's will pick up (or when people see LLLL.com's rising towards that level). It will probably be a year or two until LLLL.net registration activity picks up significantly, until then it will probably be a slow pace of decreasing availability like we are seeing now.

 

[squid]

Can anybody valuate these LLLL.net's for me?
Rep++ and maybe some NP$ <3

ilyx.net - I love you kiss
inkp.net
tyia.net - thank you in advance
tynp.net - thank you no problem (or name pros :P)
styi.net - quite pronounceable
dnck.net - DomainName and Duck slammed together?
cwab.net - crab :P
bphp.net - php :O
zoyy.net
zuyy.net
ferz.net
zree.net
zawr.net

Any worth more than regfee?

 

[Ja$on]

Picked up IFND.NET the other day, forgot to list it here. A really bad typo for Find, lol.

squid - bphp.net is good, worth more then regfee for sure. It's your only quad though in that list.

 

[bgmv]

Maybe not such a bad typo. It could be used as "I Find"

 

[bobby9101]

Can anybody valuate these LLLL.net's for me?
Rep++ and maybe some NP$ <3

ilyx.net - I love you kiss
inkp.net
tyia.net - thank you in advance
tynp.net - thank you no problem (or name pros :P)
styi.net - quite pronounceable
dnck.net - DomainName and Duck slammed together?
cwab.net - crab :P
bphp.net - php :O
zoyy.net
zuyy.net
ferz.net
zree.net
zawr.net

Any worth more than regfee?

hmm, right now the only ones that look good to me are cwab, bphp, zree, zawr, and inkp.net. I don't think anyone would develop a website based off of the acronym thank you in advance :\

 

[squid]

Picked up IFND.NET the other day, forgot to list it here. A really bad typo for Find, lol.

squid - bphp.net is good, worth more then regfee for sure. It's your only quad though in that list.

Yeah, i flogged my quads
All the ones there i regged because of the "look" of them.

Also ifnd.net is nice :D

 

[Ja$on]

You know you can buy quads from me at really good prices.

 

[bobby9101]

this thread is mostly about plugging one's own domains huh?
lol

 

[wikes82]

my reg of the day... GGAT.NET
.com, .org, .org.uk all are active sites

@jason: did you have any luck selling those LLLL for $20 ? I might sell some of mine too...

 

[Ross860]

wow.. nice.. 50k+ google result, quad premium...